Discovery-led decision-making for ‘wicked’ times webinar, 8 April 2020
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Discovery-led decision-making for ‘wicked’ times webinar Wednesday 8 April 2020 presented by: Ben Shenoy The link to the write up page and resources of this webinar: https://www.apm.org.uk/news/discovery-led-decision-making-for-wicked-times-webinar/
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Discovery-led decision-making for ‘wicked’ times webinar, 8 April 2020
- 1. Discovery-Led Decision-Making in ‘Wicked’ Times Ben Shenoy 8th April 2020
- 3. How do we make decisions under conditions of uncertainty?
- 4. If you are in healthcare… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 5. If you are in healthcare… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 6. If you are in aviation… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 7. If you are in aviation… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 8. If you are in digital infrastructure… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 9. If you are in digital infrastructure… what do you need to be thinking about?
- 10. McKinsey’s Three Horizons framework Horizon 1 3-6 months (current/next quarter) Horizon 2 12-18 months (annual planning round) Horizon 3 ~36 months (longer-term vision)
- 11. When do we make the biggest decisions during any initiative?
- 12. Classic managerial decision-making & the planning dilemma We take the most important decisions when we know the least
- 14. How should we act when we know how to do something? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS
- 15. ‘Business as Usual’ How should we act when we know how to do something? How do we do more of what works? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS
- 16. How should we act when we know how to do something? How do we do more of what works? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 18. How should we act when we don’t know much? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 19. How should we act when we don’t know much? TEST How do we learn what we need to know? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE
- 20. What do these firms have in common? Levi Strauss AT&T Kirin Kodak Marks & Spencer Boeing SSIH/Asaug Bausch & Lomb Philips GM Ciba-Geigy U.S. Steel DEC Nike Polaroid Siebel Nokia IBM Xerox PanAm Ogilvy & Mather
- 21. The Tyranny of Success KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE TEST
- 22. What is meant by the term ‘wicked problem’?
- 23. What is meant by the term ‘wicked problem’? No agreement on the nature of the problem, and certainly no clear view on what interventions might work to resolve it. (Rittel & Webber, 1973; Grint, 2005) There is often a gap between expressed values, beliefs and attitudes of a community (or organization) and their behaviours in practice. (Heifetz, 1995) There are complex interdependencies, which may reveal or create new problems when trying to solve aspects of the wicked problem. Normal solutions no longer seem to work. You only start understanding the problem once you try solving it. There are multiple stakeholders involved, often with polarized interests, and some of whom are unknown or invisible.
- 24. How wicked problems arise WICKED PROBLEMS TECHNOLOGYEXCHANGE Not just digital technology: • Physical sciences (e.g. energy, materials) • Medical sciences (e.g. treatment vs. prevention) • Social sciences (behaviour within systems Socioeconomic boundaries: • Globalization & its consequences (e.g. trade, migration) • Contest between nation-states and intra- and supra- national entities • Blurring of enterprise boundaries (e.g. open innovation, open intellectual property, hybrid organizations) • New business models (e.g. platforms) • Changing consumption patterns (e.g. ownership to use) • Finite energy sources (e.g. Peak Oil) • Consequences of consumption (global warming, plastics) • Demography (e.g. NW vs. SE) PLANET
- 25. How should we act in a ‘wicked’ environment? KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS SCALE TEST
- 26. How should we act in a ‘wicked’ environment? FRAME What’s the right problem to solve? SCALE KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS TEST
- 27. Knowing & Not Knowing It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so. Mark Twain
- 29. Reframing exchange in a COVID era
- 30. Knowing & Not Knowing: reprise Discovery consists of seeing what everybody has seen, and thinking what nobody has thought. Albert Szent-Gyorgyi
- 31. Discovery-Led Decision-Making FRAME SCALE KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS KNOWNS UNKNOWNS & ASSUMPTIONS VARIATIONADAPTATION SELECTION TEST