This document summarizes a virtual meeting hosted by the APM Risk SIG on using data analytics for risk management. The meeting agenda included an introduction to data analytics tools and applications in risk management like predictive cost and schedule forecasting. It also discussed challenges like how analytics relies on historical data and may not account for future changes. Participants discussed if these techniques constitute risk management and whether organizations are ready to accept these new approaches. The discussion aimed to explore how data and analytics can intersect with risk management and the facilitator proposed potential next steps like a follow up session and white paper on the topic.

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APM Risk SIG virtual meet up
Tuesday 11 May 2021
6:00pm BST
Welcome, enjoy networking and contributing your experiences to the
conversation this evening
This discussion evening is not being recorded, and will follow Chatham House Rules
Risk and Data Analytics
– Predicting the future?

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PREDICTING
THE
FUTURE?
Risk Management &
Data Analytics

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AGENDA
WHAT IS/ARE
DATA ANALYTICS?
SOME TOOLS
SOME WIDER
APPLICATIONS
SOME
CHALLENGES
And how does it/they
intersect with risk
management?
Predictive cost and
schedule forecasting
Predictive risk modelling
Reference Class
Forecasting
Power BI
The problem with
forecasting
Automating behaviour
Is this risk management?!
01 02
04 05
DISCUSSION
DISCUSSION
Do you have any
thoughts or experiences
with data analytics?
What do you think?
Are you convinced?
What might the
future look like?
03
06

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HIYA!
I’m Richard Bendall-Jones
I work for Network Rail
but these views are my own
I am undertaking this session on behalf of the
APM, for which I am a Committee Member of
the Risk Special Interest Group (SIG)

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DATA ANALYTICS
inspecting,
cleansing,
transforming, and
modelling data
discovering useful information,
informing conclusions, and
supporting decision-making
with the goal of

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SO WHAT?
Risk is subjective
Prone to human biases
Use of historical data seeks to remove this bias
Less arduous than workshops – potentially quicker and
cheaper
We’re getting better at capturing project data – or at
least we’re getting more enthusiastic about it

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SOME TOOLS
Predictive cost and schedule forecasting
- Using historical data
- Planned versus actual task durations
- Estimated versus actual project costs
Predictive risk modelling
- Historical risk models
What’s the difference between the two?
Diagram from:
http://learninglegacy.crossrail.co.uk

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DISCUSSION PART 1
What do you think?
Do you have any experience of using data analytics?
Is this related to project controls and reporting, or more specifically to risk?
Has it been successful?

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SOME MORE TOOLS
Reference Class Forecasting
- a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations
(reference class) and their outcomes
Visualisation / Aggregation Tools
Software to support the discussion of data to identify trends and drive action
Leading indicators and Key Risk Indicators

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CHALLENGES
This stuff is not a panacea
We can’t suddenly predict the future
It may assume the future environment is the same as what is in the ‘database’
Can we automate the culture that needs to sit alongside the tools?
However
- It might be quicker, easier and cheaper to attempt to do so
- More defensible from a risk modelling perspective
- Useful assurance tools to validate QRAs
But is this risk management?

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DISCUSSION PART 2
Is this risk management?
What do you think the pros and cons are?
Have you encountered any of this in a live environment?
How do you think it would be received in your organisation?
Is it important to achieve a parallel risk maturity that accepts these approaches?

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NEXT STEPS
Follow up session to explore topics further – let the APM know
White paper to be produced by Richard on behalf of Risk SIG
If you enjoyed it, let your colleagues know (or me, I’ve not done this before!) – if
we have demand I’ll do another session

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CREDITS: This presentation template was
created by Slidesgo, including icons by
Flaticon, infographics & images by Freepik
Richard Bendall-Jones
Richard.bendall-jones@networkrail.co.uk
THANKS