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Micromobility, the Jobs Vehicles are Hired to Do

There are two mechanisms by which technologies affect society: bundling and unbundling. This re-packaging resets the way companies are structured leading to reversal of incumbent position relative to entrants.

The Personal Computer unbundled the mainframe while the phone and tablet unbundled the PC. Microsoft bundled office work and the Internet bundled communications. Google unbundled information access and Apple bundled experiences. Amazon bundled retail while Facebook bundled media. The car in the 20th century bundled transportation.

Will the availability of new technologies in the 21st century enable a great unbundling of transportation?

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Micromobility, the Jobs Vehicles are Hired to Do

  1. 1. THE JOB WE HIRE VEHICLES TO DO
  2. 2. HOW DOES BEHAVIOR CHANGE WHEN TRANSPORT TECHNOLOGY CHANGES? THE ANTHROPOLOGICAL CONSTANT THAT HINTS AT THE JOB TO BE DONE
  3. 3. DONEC QUIS NUNC SETTLED 4000 YEARS ATTACKED 52 TIMES CAPTURED 44 TIMES BESIEGED 23 TIMES DIVIDED 4 QUARTERS DESTROYED TWICE
  4. 4. DONEC QUIS NUNC
  5. 5. DONEC QUIS NUNC
  6. 6. DONEC QUIS NUNC
  7. 7. DONEC QUIS NUNC
  8. 8. DONEC QUIS NUNC
  9. 9. DONEC QUIS NUNC
  10. 10. DONEC QUIS NUNC
  11. 11. ANTHROPOLOGICAL INVARIANTS 1 TO 1.5 HR/DAY SPENT IN TRANSPORTATION 15% OF DISPOSABLE INCOME INDEPENDENT OF: EPOCH, COUNTRY, ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT ACCESS TO AND USE OF VARIOUS TECHNOLOGY SPATIAL SETTLEMENT PATTERN Source: Grübler 1990
  12. 12. US TIME SPENT IN A VEHICLE Average time spent in a private vehicle in a typical day: 56 min. Source: NHTS, 2009 survey
  13. 13. ” “ Infrastructure follows not leads TO UNDERSTAND HOW CARS WILL OR WON’T CHANGE, STUDY ROADS.
  14. 14. ” “ Understand JTBD as context and source of innovation FOR MOTORISTS, CONGESTION IS A BIGGER PROBLEM THAN ANY DEFICIENCY IN THE VEHICLE.
  15. 15. WHY WAS GERMANY LATE IN ADOPTING THE CAR? IS NON-CONSUMPTION CAUSED BY NON-PRODUCTION?
  16. 16. THE GERMAN ANOMALY Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 100 200 300 400 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 GERMANY FRANCE/UK USA ITALY
  17. 17. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 3.5 7 10.5 14 1900 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 FRANCE EUROPE GERMANY EUROPE UNITED KINGDOM EUROPE UNITED STATES NORTH AMERICA SWITZERLAND EUROPE CANADA NORTH AMERICA GERMANY FRANCE/UK USA CANADA
  18. 18. WHY DID HITLER ASK PORSCHE TO BUILD A PEOPLE’S CAR? US vs. German Automobile Production 1922-1939 0 1,000,000 2,000,000 3,000,000 4,000,000 1901 1902 1903 1904 1905 1906 1907 1908 1909 1910 1911 1912 1913 1914 1915 1916 1917 1918 1919 1920 1921 1922 1923 1924 1925 1926 1927 1928 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933 1934 1935 1936 1937 1938 1939 AUTO PRODUCTION IN GERMANY US AUTO PRODUCTION USA GERMANY
  19. 19. GERMANY WAS NOT A LAGGARD BEFORE THE CAR (OR AFTER) Rail Line Length (Percent of Maximum) 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 1800 1806 1812 1818 1824 1830 1836 1842 1848 1854 1860 1866 1872 1878 1884 1890 1896 1902 1908 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 Geographical/route lengths of line open at the end of the year. Narrow gauge lines generally included, but mountain railways, purely industrial lines not open to the public, and urban systems generally excluded. Mitchell (1998) via NBER CHAT Dataset Passenger Journeys by Rail 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 1800 1806 1812 1818 1824 1830 1836 1842 1848 1854 1860 1866 1872 1878 1884 1890 1896 1902 1908 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 Thousands of passenger journeys by railway. Free passengers typically excluded but may be included for some countries. Mitchell (1998) via NB GERMANY USA UK GERMANY USA
  20. 20. TELEGRAM & TELEPHONE Number of Telegrams Sent 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 1800 1806 1812 1818 1824 1830 1836 1842 1848 1854 1860 1866 1872 1878 1884 1890 1896 1902 1908 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 Telephone Adoption 0.025 0.05 0.075 0.1 1800 1806 1812 1818 1824 1830 1836 1842 1848 1854 1860 1866 1872 1878 1884 1890 1896 1902 1908 1914 1920 1926 1932 1938 1944 1950 1956 1962 1968 1974 1980 1986 1992 1998 2004 Number of mainline telephone lines connecting a customer's equipment to the public switched telephone network as of year end. Mitchell (1998), WORLD BANK (2007) GERMANY USA GERMANY USA UK
  21. 21. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5%
  22. 22. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5% GERMANY/ITALY5%
  23. 23. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5% GERMANY/ITALY5% GAP TO US (5% ADOPTION) WAS 44 YEARS
  24. 24. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5% GERMANY/ITALY5% JAPAN5% JAPAN
  25. 25. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5% GERMANY/ITALY5% JAPAN5% KOREA5% KOREA
  26. 26. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5% GERMANY/ITALY5% JAPAN5% CHINA5% KOREA5% CHINA
  27. 27. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5% GERMANY/ITALY5% JAPAN5% CHINA5% KOREA5% INDIA5% INDIA (FORECAST)
  28. 28. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/FRANCE5% GERMANY/ITALY5% 22 yr. 22 yr. JAPAN5% CHINA5% KOREA5% 21 yr. 20 yr. INDIA5% 20 yr. ? PERIODICITY
  29. 29. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/France5% Germany/Italy5% 22 yr. 22 yr. Japan5% China5% Korea5% 21 yr. 20 yr. FORD GM RENAULT CITROEN BRITISH LEYLAND VW FIAT TOYOTA HYUNDAI/KIA SAIC ET. AL. Wartime delay LOW-END ENTRIES LEADING TO MARKET LEADERSHIP TATA ET. AL. India5% 20 yr. ? UNDER EACH RISE WAS A LOW END DISRUPTIVE ENTRY
  30. 30. Cars in use per 1000 Inhabitants 0 50 100 1900 1902 1904 1906 1908 1910 1912 1914 1916 1918 1920 1922 1924 1926 1928 1930 1932 1934 1936 1938 1940 1942 1944 1946 1948 1950 1952 1954 1956 1958 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 1972 1974 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 US5% UK/France5% Germany/Italy5% 22 yr. 22 yr. Japan5% China5% Korea5% 21 yr. 20 yr. FORD GM RENAULT CITROEN BRITISH LEYLAND VW FIAT TOYOTA HYUNDAI/KIA SAIC ET. AL. Wartime delay LOW-END ENTRIES LEADING TO MARKET LEADERSHIP TATA ET. AL. India5% 20 yr. ? UNDER EACH RISE WAS A LOW END DISRUPTIVE ENTRY WHO AMONG THE NON-CONSUMERS WILL LEAD NEXT?
  31. 31. CAR PRODUCTION FAVORS INCUMBENTS • Automobiles represent freedom and economic growth • Nearly every car trip ends with either an economic transaction of a benefit to quality of life • Auto industry is the single greatest engine of economic growth • 30% growth (1995-2005) • 9 million people directly employed, 50 million indirectly, 5% of all manuf. • $5 Trillion from manufacturing, $15 Trillion inclusive of services Source: Grübler 1990
  32. 32. NOT GOING ANYWHERE NEW CAR SALES 0 10,000,000 20,000,000 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 EU 15 COUNTRIES + EFTA EUROPE NEW MEMBERS RUSSIA, TURKEY & OTHER EUROPE NAFTA CENTRAL & SOUTH AMERICA AFRICA ASIA/OCEANIA/MIDDLE EAST
  33. 33. TOP MANUFACTURERS BY VOLUME
  34. 34. RISE OF CHINA & KOREA
  35. 35. VEHICLES IN USE (THOUSANDS)
  36. 36. PER CAPITA UTILIZATION INCREASING
  37. 37. LAST BILLION CARS (MANUFACTURERS)
  38. 38. LAST BILLION CARS (COUNTRIES)
  39. 39. THE COMBINATORIAL DILEMMA • There are 1.2 billion cars in use (set to grow to 2 billion) • There are 50 major automobile producers (China rising) • There are 200 major mobile service companies (w/ moats) • Each car is in use 1 hr/day (1.2 billion vehicle-hours/day) • Each car is driven about 30 mi/day • A vehicle can generate 2 to 10 Gb/mi.
  40. 40. LATE CUSTOMERS CHANGE THE PRODUCT. EARLY CUSTOMERS SEEK TO BE CHANGED BY IT. INTERESTING QUESTIONS
  41. 41. Henry Ford’s first car, the Quadricycle 1896World’s first car, the Motorwagen 1886

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