There are two mechanisms by which technologies affect society: bundling and unbundling. This re-packaging resets the way companies are structured leading to reversal of incumbent position relative to entrants. The Personal Computer unbundled the mainframe while the phone and tablet unbundled the PC. Microsoft bundled office work and the Internet bundled communications. Google unbundled information access and Apple bundled experiences. Amazon bundled retail while Facebook bundled media. The car in the 20th century bundled transportation. Will the availability of new technologies in the 21st century enable a great unbundling of transportation?

1. MICROMOBILITY
TOWARD

2. Microsoft Revenues by Segment
Windows & Win Live/Dev&Cons Licensing/Prod&Bus Processes
Server and Tools /Computing/Gaming Hardware
Online Services/Dev&Cons Other/Intelligent Cloud
Microsoft Business/Commercial Licensing/More Pers. Computing
Entertainment & Devices Commercial Other
Phone Hardware
Unallocated and other
Q307
Q407
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Mac
Software
Other Products
iPod
Services
iPhone
iPad
Microsoft Operating Income
Google Revenues by Segment
$0m
$10,000m
$20,000m
$30,000m
$40,000m
Q307
Q407
Q108
Q208
Q308
Q408
Q109
Q209
Q309
Q409
Q110
Q210
Q310
Q410
Q111
Q211
Q311
Q411
Q112
Q212
Q312
Q412
Q113
Q213
Q313
Q413
Q114
Q214
Q314
Q414
Q115
Q215
Q315
Q415
Q116
Q216
Q316
Q416
Google web sites
Google Network web sites
Licensing and other revenues
Motorola revenues
Other bets
Google Operating Income
$0m
$10,000m
$20,000m
Amazon Revenues
Amazon Services Sales
Amazon Product Sales
Amazon Revenues
Amazon Operating Income
Includes inter-segment sales
Facebook Revenues by Segment
Advertising revenues:
Payments and other fees
Facebook Operating Income
PERSPECTIVE

3. ADDRESSABLE MARKET
$0
$2,000,000,000,000
$4,000,000,000,000
$6,000,000,000,000
$8,000,000,000,000
$10,000,000,000,000
$12,000,000,000,000
$14,000,000,000,000
$16,000,000,000,000
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
VEHICLE MANUFACTURING
ON-DEMAND RIDES
OTHER TRANSPORTATION SERVICES
LOGISTICS
2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
APPLE REVENUES
$15 Trillion

4. NEGROPONTE
SWITCH
WIRELESS
WIRED
time

5. MOBILE
SWITCH
HIGH
LOW
time
“Computing”

6. AUTONOMY?
HEAVY
LIGHT
time
Weight

7. UNBUNDLING
SMALL DISTANCES IN SMALL VEHICLES
LARGE DISTANCES IN LARGE VEHICLES
LONG
SHORT
time
Distance

8. MICROMOBILITY
SWITCH
DRIVEN
DRIVING
time
Population
Density,
Modality

11. Micromobility

12. Micromobility
• 9:00 to 9:15 Introductions, Agenda
• 9:15 to 10:00 “Toward Microautonomobility” Horace Dediu
• 10:00 to 10:15 Coffee Break
• 10:15 to 11:00 "The Physics of Getting Around: Why urban
transport is the killer app for electric powertrains.” Steven
Anderson
• 11:00 to 12:00 “How motorcycles will play a mayor role in the
future of mobility” Jesper Vind
• 12:00 to 13:00 Lunch
• 13:00 to 13:45 “How Bikes Will Eat Cars” The eruption of on-
demand nanomobility, Horace Dediu
• 14:00 to 14:45 Panel: "How are the three innovations: on-
demand dispatch, Li-ion batteries and automated driving
affecting vehicular designs?"
• 14:45 to 15:00 Coffee Break
• 15:00 to 15:45 “How to segment transportation by Jobs to Be
Done” Why we’re always measuring the wrong things. Horace
Dediu
• 16:00 to 17:00 Provocative statements in open discussion.

13. MICRO AUTONOMOBILITY
TOWARD

14. TOWARD MICROMOBILITY
VISION
PRODUCT SERVICE CAPITAL ASSET
OWNERSHIP HAILING SUBSCRIPTION CONTRACT
TOKEN
1900-2010 2010-2020 2020-2030 2030-
Business Construct
Customer Offer
SERVITIZATION SECURITIZATION TOKENIZATIONDisruption

15. • Autonomy collapses on-
demand pricing
• Electric drive lowers
operating costs
• Manufacturing
breakthroughs lower CAPEX
and evaporate unitized costs
• As a result,
Rides can be capitalized
ON-DEMAND
ECONOMICS
(US)
$0
$3
$6
$9
$12
$15
$18
$8.90
$3.81
$4.47
LYFT REVENUE / RIDE
DRIVER COSTS
DRIVER INCOME
RIDE ECONOMICS
YEAR 1 YEAR 2 YEAR 3 YEAR 4 YEAR 5 YEAR 6 YEAR 7 YEAR 8
OPERATING MARGIN
DEPRECIATION
MAINTENANCE, INSURANCE AND FUEL
LABOR COST
Ride Price
-10
DRIVERACQUISITIONCOST
Perpetually
Negative Cash Flow
Positive Ride Economics Scale with Fleet Size

16. THE MARKET IS OVER-
SERVING
WEIGHT FOR SUCCESSIVE VEHICLE GENERATIONS IN THE
EUROPEAN COMPACT SEGMENT

17. L <4 WHEELS
light two-wheel powered vehicle L1e 2
powered cycle (Pedelec) L1e-A 2
two-wheel moped (incl. S-Pedelec) L1e-B 2
three-wheel moped L2e 3
three-wheel moped for passenger transport L2e-P 3
three wheel moped for utility purposes L2e-U 3
two-wheel motorcycle L3e 2
low-performance motorcycle L3e-A1 2
medium-performance motorcycle L3e-A2 2
high-performance motorcycle L3e-A3 2
enduro motorcycle L3e-A1E 2
enduro motorcycle L3e-A2E 2
enduro motorcycle L3e-A3E 2
trial motorcycle L3e-A1T 2
trial motorcycle L3e-A2T 2
trial motorcycle L3e-A3T 2
two-wheel motorcycle with side-car L4e 3
powered tricycle L5e 3
tricycle (mainly designed for passenger transport) L5e-A 3
commercial tricycle (utility tricycle exclusively
designed for the carriage of goods)
L5e-B 3
L 4 WHEELS
light quadricycle L6e 4
light on-road quad L6e-A 4
light quadri-mobile L6e-B 4
light quadri-mobile for utility purposes L6e-BU 4
light quadri-mobile for passenger transport L6e-BP 4
heavy quadricycles L7e 4
heavy on-road quad L7e-A 4
A1 on-road quad L7e-A1 4
A2 on-road quad L7e-A2 4
heavy all terrain quad L7e-B 4
all terrain quad L7e-B1 4
side-by-side buggy L7e-B2 4
heavy quadri-mobile L7e-C: 4
heavy quadri-mobile for utility purposes L7e-CU: 4
heavy quadri-mobile for passenger L7e-CP: 4
EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES

18. M ≥ 4 WHEELS
no more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat
(mainly, cars)
M1:
more than eight seats in addition to the driver seat (buses):
having a maximum mass not exceeding 5 tonnes (11,000 lb)
M2:
having a maximum mass exceeding 5 tonnes M3:
N: used for the carriage of goods (trucks): having a
maximum mass not exceeding 3.5 tonnes (7,700 lb)
N1:
having a maximum mass exceeding 3.5 tonnes but not
exceeding 12 tonnes (26,000 lb)
N2:
having a maximum mass exceeding 12 tonnes N3:
EU GENERAL CLASSIFICATION OF VEHICLE CATEGORIES

20. Japan North America EU China
e-Kei
Neighborhood
Electric Car
Light Quadricycle
(L6e)
Rural Vehicle
Golf Car
Heavy Quadricycle
(L7e)
LSEV
Personal Transportation (PTV 20 mph) (LSV: 25mph) PTV is state, LSV is federal
LSV will be universal, Growth in personal transportation vehicles, errands, double digit growth
NOMENCLATURE

21. 0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
CHINA
EU E QUAD
US
JAPAN(I-MIEV)
ROW
MARKET HISTORY

22. Gordon Murray T.25
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
10,000,000
12,000,000
14,000,000
2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026
China
RoW 10% of Heavy Car Market RoW
15% of Heavy Car Market China
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
FORECAST

23. T.25
Length 2.4 m
Width 1.3 m
Height 1.6 m
Curb weight 575 kg
BMW I3
4 m
1.8 m
1.6 m
1,195 kg (60Ah)
TESL A S
5 m
2 m
1.4 m
2,200 kg (90D)
0
5
10
15
20
25
T.25 i3 Tesla
Weight x100 kg
Volume cubic meters
T.25
Scale: 1m

24. T.25
Width of US traffic lane
(3.7m)
T.25

25. PARKING

26. COST OF BATTERY PACK
Estimated Costs for Automotive Lithium Batteries (Pack)$/kWh
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
$550
$600
$650
$700
$750
$800
$850
$900
$950
$1,000
$1,050
$1,100
$1,150
$1,200
$1,250
$1,300
$1,350
$1,400
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031
LG Chem 2017
Daimler 2016
Carnegie Mellon University 2016
Cairn Energy Research Advisors 2016
Nat. Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL) 2016
Panasonic 2016
Tesla 2016
MIT (Sadoway) 2016
Ford (cell) 2016
Tesla 2015
GM 2015
MIT (Industry expert interviews) 2015
Stockholm Environment Institute 2015
Johnson Matthey 2015
Argonne National Lab 2015
Tesla 2014
US Dept. of Energy 2014
MIT (Sakti et al.) 2014
Umicore 2014
Australian Renewable Energy Agency 2014
Advanced Automotive Batteries 2014
VTT Technical Research Centre of Finland 2014
USABC (Industry) 2013
Argonne National Lab 2013
Johnson Matthey 2012
LG Chemical 2010
Average
Power Curve fit

27. NEW PRODUCTION
SYSTEM

28. A NEW PLANT ARCHITECTURE
BODY
PAINT
ASSEMBLY
100K UNITS/YR.
MIN. $300 MILLION CAPEX
TRANSFER PRESSES
WELDING ROBOTS
WASH
PAINT ROBOTS
OVENS
POWER TOOLS
ROBOTS
20K UNITS/YR.
$50 MILLION CAPEX
CURRENT RIDE STREAM
$50 MILLION PRODUCT DEVELOPMENT $10 MILLION DEVELOPMENT
MERGE
PANELS
INJECTION
MOULDING
POWER TOOLS
CHASSIS
TUBE BENDING
& WELDING

29. CURRENT ISTREAM
TOOLING

30. PROCESS FLOW PAINT SHOP
1. Detergent wash
2. Degrease
3. Rinse
4. Conditioning Rinse
5. Phosphate treatment
6. Dip Rinse
7. Demineralized water Spray
8. Electrophoresis
9. Spray rinse
10. Bake
11. Joint Seal
12. Underseal
13. Stone Chip Primer
14. Primer Surface
15. Bake
16. Top Coat
17. Bake
18. Wax Injection
NO LONGER NEEDED

31. FACTORY BENEFITS
• Metal presses replaced with tools
for bending, welding
• 20% the size of a conventional
factory
• Capital investment reduced by 80%
• Operating expenses reduced by
lower energy requirements
• Reduced space requirements
• Lower real estate costs
• Location flexibility
• Closer to market
• Reduced transportation costs

32. A NEW BUSINESS ARCHITECTURE
• Modular assembly and value chain
• Separate frame and panel plants
• Separate assembly plants
• Re-defined sales and service
economics
• Local component supply
ecosystem
• Brand creation benefits