What might the Trump administration do next on trade policy? What would be the implications of actions against the NAFTA, or the WTO, or regarding trade with China, Mexico, or the EU? Importers and exporters need answers—and they need them now. From border adjusted tax to all out trade war, A.T. Kearney’s Trade War Gaming℠ envisions five plausible scenarios for the future of global trade.

1. Trade Wargaming:
Five Plausible Scenarios
for the Future of Trade Policy
Request a briefing

2. Experts predict the Trump administration’s
trade policies will fall into two classes:
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Request a briefing
Changes within
the system
More aggressive
posturing within
established trade
frameworks to change
the specific behaviors
of trading partners
Breakdown
of the system
A breakdown
of the existing inter-
national trading system,
including abandonment
of key treaties, open
conflicts, or trade war
1 2
Pragmatic Radical

3. We envision five plausible narratives
for the future of trade, ranging
from pragmatic to radical.
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Request a briefing
Brinkmanship All-out
trade war
3 51
Grand
bargain
Border-
adjusted tax
2 4
Enforcement/
Ad hoc
Pragmatic Radical

4. Enforcement/Ad hoc
Aggressive enforcement of existing treaties and
high-profile deals with corporates. This level of
enforcement impacts select product categories
quite differently.
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Request a briefing
1
Likelihood Timeframe Signposts Risk
High
Low
Immediate
(2017–)
Filing of suits

5. Renegotiation of treaties and bilateral negotiations
within the WTO framework. The administration tries
to renegotiate NAFTA, possibly strike a new grand
bargain with China, and reevaluate all partners.
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Request a briefing
Grand bargain2
Likelihood Timeframe Signposts Risk
Medium
High
Intermediate
(2017–)
Start of
negotiations

6. Corporate tax reform with significant impact
on trade policy. This scenario offers the U.S. a path
to major trade realignment without negotiating with
foreign partners.
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Request a briefing
Border-adjusted tax3
Likelihood Timeframe Signposts Risk
Medium
High
Long
(2018–)
Legislative
process

7. Likelihood Timeframe Signposts Risk
Medium MediumIntermediate
(2017–)
Unilateral
actions
Unilateral imposition of tariffs to protect industries
or increase leverage. This likely leads to widespread
violation of trade treaties and direct retaliation from
trading partners.
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Request a briefing
Brinkmanship4

8. Breakdown of the international trade system and
return to mercantilist policies. This departure from
established frameworks triggers a global trade war
unseen since the 1930s, when global trade fell by 66%.
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis
Request a briefing
All-out trade war5
Likelihood Timeframe Signposts Risk
Low
Very high
Long
(2018–)
Breaches
of treaties

9. Different industries, business lines,
countries, states, and companies
will be at higher risk
of being affected
depending on
the scenario.
Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Request a briefing
Source: A.T. Kearney analysis

10. Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
Prepare your organization to pivot
quickly and take action no matter
the scenario.
Request a briefing on the two-step
Trade Wargaming process.
Request a briefing

11. Trade Wargaming: Five Plausible Scenarios for the Future of Trade Policy
A.T. Kearney is a leading global management consulting firm with offices in 40 countries.
Since 1926, we have been trusted advisors to the world’s foremost organizations. A.T. Kearney
is a partner-owned firm, committed to helping clients achieve immediate impact and growing
advantage on their most mission-critical issues. For more information, visit www.atkearney.com.
To learn more about the plausible
narratives for the future of
trade and understand if your
organization is at high risk,
visit www.tradewargaming.com.
Request a briefing