SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 87
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
                         BEN COUSINS
          (ALL MARKET INFORMATION CORRECT ON 7TH MARCH 2012)
WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
SOME DEFINITIONS
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
       COMES NEXT?
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
       COMES NEXT?


         Die, for the purpose of this talk means
 ‘Significantly smaller market share with no sign of return’
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
          COMES NEXT?
Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for
                                     their need
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
          COMES NEXT?
Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for
                                     their need
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
          COMES NEXT?
Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for
                                     their need
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
           COMES NEXT?
Market share drops in relative terms, often because a new product massively expands
                                  the overall market
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
       COMES NEXT?


  Die, for the purpose of this talk DOES NOT mean
    ‘The product is never used by anyone ever again’
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
       COMES NEXT?
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
       COMES NEXT?
WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT
       COMES NEXT?
THE WEDDING THEORY
THE WEDDING THEORY
THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
         The Old World
THE OLD WORLD



NASDAQ +25.78%

  EA -61.77%
THE OLD WORLD



NASDAQ +25.78%

 ATVI -33.34%
THE OLD WORLD



NASDAQ +25.78%

 MSFT +24.39%
THE OLD WORLD
‘Consumer Software, Services & Devices’,
‘Entertainment & Devices’ Division Profit/Loss




                                                Lifetime results for this
                                                division = $7.807B loss
THE OLD WORLD



NASDAQ +25.78%

  SNE -46.42%
THE OLD WORLD
‘Games’, ‘Networked Products & Services’,
‘Consumer Products & Services’




                                            Results for this division
                                            since 2000 = ¥252.9B
                                            loss (around $3.1B)
THE OLD WORLD



NASDAQ +25.78%

NTDOY -71.28%
THE OLD WORLD
US Annual sales (hardware and software) 1997-2011 (NPD, billions USD)
THE OLD WORLD
UK Annual sales (hardware and software, billions GBP)
THE OLD WORLD
THE OLD WORLD
THE OLD WORLD
THE OLD WORLD
THE OLD WORLD IS LARGE BUT
                   SHRINKING FAST
•   In summary;

    •   Investors are not showing confidence in the future of large traditional publishers

    •   Sony, Microsoft showing losses for console divisions over the last 10 years

    •   Nintendo in ‘disarray’

    •   Retail sales dropping year on year since 2009

    •   Major European retailer Game in serious trouble

    •   Casual & kids games on console and handhelds hit by an unseen force
THE DEATH OF DEDICATED ELECTRONICS HARDWARE




    Down 17%      Down 42.5%     Down 32.6%




    Down 20.5%                   Down 20.8%
THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY
         The New World
THE NEW WORLD
Top 5 dedicated gaming companies by market cap, August 2008 (millions USD)




               123         33         30          26         43
THE NEW WORLD
Top 5 dedicated gaming companies by market cap, March 2012 (millions USD)




              123         33          5           8         18
THE NEW WORLD
             Audience sizes for games




25 million
  sales                            500 million downloads
THE NEW WORLD                                            ‘100’
20         19   Market caps of platform companies (billions USD)




     267

                                                                   495

                           198
THE NEW WORLD
      Combined market caps of platform companies (billions USD)




                                                             793
306
THE NEW WORLD
Growth rates of platforms (assumes 70% of iOS are gamers, 50% of FB are gamers, excludes iPod touch sales)
THE NEW WORLD
   The Japanese revolution
THE NEW WORLD IS GROWING VERY
              FAST
• In   summary;

  • Now     3 out of 5 of the world’s largest gaming companies distribute digitally, are
       freemium focussed

  • The    audience sizes for a hit game has increased 20x on new platforms like FB, iOS
       and Android

  • New     Mobile/Social platforms are driven by huge companies

  • In   Japan freemium social mobile has already overtaken the traditional business
THE LAST BIG CHANGE
 When The Arcades Died, What Came Next?
THE LAST BIG CHANGE
Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010
                 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research




                                                   The 1980’s

                    Traditional Retail revenue hovers between 3% and 35% of
                                              Arcade
THE LAST BIG CHANGE
Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010
                 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research




                                                               The 1990’s

                                            Traditional Retail revenue grows steadily
                                                 from 38% to 166% of Arcade
THE LAST BIG CHANGE
Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010
                 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research




                                                                             The 2000’s

                                                                         Traditional Retail
                                                                          revenue grows
                                                                        sharply, ending up
                                                                          17x the size of
                                                                        (declining) Arcade
THE LAST BIG CHANGE
Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010
                 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research




                                                                         What happened
                                                                             here?

                     The Tipping Point                                    What killed the
                                                                            arcade?
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

         The 1980’s

     •Arcades dominated
      home experience

     •Better graphics
     •Bigger screens
     •Better controllers
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

         The 1980’s

     •Arcades dominated
      home experience

     •Better graphics
     •Bigger screens
     •Better controllers
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

         The 1980’s

     •Arcades dominated
      home experience

     •Better graphics
     •Bigger screens
     •Better controllers
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

                   The 1990’s

   • Arcades start much more powerful
     than home consoles

   • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start
     competing with textured 3D arcade
     games

   • Sony’s entry into the business - a
     company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo

   • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as
     Naomi system board, less memory
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

                   The 1990’s

   • Arcades start much more powerful
     than home consoles

   • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start
     competing with textured 3D arcade
     games

   • Sony’s entry into the business - a
     company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo

   • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as
     Naomi system board, less memory
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

                   The 1990’s

   • Arcades start much more powerful
     than home consoles

   • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start
     competing with textured 3D arcade
     games

   • Sony’s entry into the business - a
     company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo

   • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as
     Naomi system board, less memory
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

                  The 2000’s

   • Home consoles now in parity or
    above arcades in power

   • Arcade still have better
    controllers, bigger screens

   • Microsoft’s entry into the business
    - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x
    Nintendo

   • Dead arcades - novelty
    controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

                  The 2000’s

   • Home consoles now in parity or
    above arcades in power

   • Arcade still have better
    controllers, bigger screens

   • Microsoft’s entry into the business
    - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x
    Nintendo

   • Dead arcades - novelty
    controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
THE LAST BIG CHANGE

                  The 2000’s

   • Home consoles now in parity or
    above arcades in power

   • Arcade still have better
    controllers, bigger screens

   • Microsoft’s entry into the business
    - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x
    Nintendo

   • Dead arcades - novelty
    controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
THE TIPPING POINT

• Two big things happened;
1.Bigger companies entered the games business

      • More marketing clout, grow the overall business
2.Chips got cheap enough and lower power enough

      • Creating an ‘arcade experience’ in the home, that pulled in the arcade gamers
• Home consoles had always been cheaper and more convenient, but these advantages now
 really mattered

• Worth noting arcades still often had bigger screens & always better controllers
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE
                              ?
 When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?
THE NEXT BIG CHANGE
 When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?
THE DEATH OF DEDICATED ELECTRONICS HARDWARE




    Down 17%      Down 42.5%     Down 32.6%




    Down 20.5%                   Down 20.8%
DISRUPTIVE TECHNOLOGY
• ’Sustaining Technologies’
 dominate

• Disruptive tech enters the
 market

• Incumbents don’t take it
 seriously

• It rapidly increases in
 performance

• Disruptive tech replaces
 all usages
• ’Sustaining Technologies’
                                      dominate
Large scale businesses
     computing                       • Disruptive tech enters the
       Scientific
                                      market
      computing
                          Personal   • Incumbents don’t take it
                         Computer     seriously

    Small business
     computing
                                     • It rapidly increases in
                                      performance
Hobby computing
                                     • Disruptive tech replaces
                                      all usages
• ’Sustaining Technologies’
                                dominate
    AAA
Console Games                  • Disruptive tech enters the
                                market
Handheld Games
                 iOS/Android   • Incumbents don’t take it
                   devices      seriously

                               • It rapidly increases in
  Kids Games                    performance
 Casual Phone
    Games                      • Disruptive tech replaces
                                all usages
We are here                 • ’Sustaining Technologies’
                                              dominate
    AAA
Console Games                                • Disruptive tech enters the
                                              market
Handheld Games
                               iOS/Android   • Incumbents don’t take it
                                 devices      seriously

                                             • It rapidly increases in
  Kids Games                                  performance
 Casual Phone
    Games                                    • Disruptive tech replaces
                                              all usages
DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER




          My Little Tank (2005)
DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER




Gran Turismo 4 (Polyphony Digital 2005)   God of War (Sony Santa Monica 2005)
DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER




      Infinity Blade Dungeons (Epic 2012)
DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER




      Modern Warfare 3 (Activision 2011)
WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW?

• Two big things are happening;
1.Bigger companies have entered the games business

      • More marketing clout grows the overall business
2.Chips are getting cheap enough and lower power enough

         • Creating a ‘console experience’ on the move, pulling in the console gamers
• Mobile games have always been cheaper and more convenient, but these advantages now
 really matter

• Worth noting that consoles will still often had bigger screens & always better controllers
WHAT A STRANGE, MARGINALIZED
          OPINION!
JOHN CARMACK


     “platform wise, you could certainly
     imagine a future where, instead of
     having your console, you have
     your mobile device”
PHIL HARRISON



     “If they carry on unrestrained in their
     growth, then there’s a pretty good
     chance that Apple will be the
     games industry”
MIKE CAPPS
HIDEO KOJIMA


    “Gamers should be able to take the
    experience with them in their
    living rooms, on the go, when
    they travel -- wherever they are
    and whenever they want to play. It
    should be the same software and the
    same experience,”
GABE NEWELL


      “I suspect Apple will launch a living
      room product that redefines people's
      expectations really strongly and the
      notion of a separate console
      platform will disappear”
KOTAKU



    ‘Tim Cook holds the future of
    gaming in his hands.’
CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA
   WASN'T KILLED BY TV!
CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA
   WASN'T KILLED BY TV!
% of the US population who visited the cinema on a weekly basis (Michelle Pautz, Elon University, 2002)
CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA
   WASN'T KILLED BY TV!
Total UK cinema attendance (British Film Institute, Cinema Advertising Association & Rentrack EDI)
CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA
   WASN'T KILLED BY TV!
    UK box office cinema revenue as a % of GDP (Bakker 2008 and ONS)
CINEMA WAS CRUSHED BY TV

• The ‘platform   holder’ (cinema) didn’t do ok - thousands of cinemas closed down

• The ‘content   people’ (movie studios/distributors) did ok

 • Made   movies available on the lower-res ‘free to watch’ TV and ‘for hire’ VHS
   platforms

• Games  content developers need to do the same - move content to new low-res
 platforms - or we will suffer the same fate as the cinema
FOX THEATRE
SAN FRANCISCO
TWITTER: @BENJAMINCOUSINS

More Related Content

What's hot

Nintendo Strategic Recommendation
Nintendo Strategic RecommendationNintendo Strategic Recommendation
Nintendo Strategic RecommendationBasim Al-Baker
 
Case Stydy of Stratigic Management for Nintendo
Case Stydy of Stratigic Management for NintendoCase Stydy of Stratigic Management for Nintendo
Case Stydy of Stratigic Management for NintendoSorawit Yuenyongvithayakul
 
Blue ocean Red Ocean strategy
Blue ocean Red Ocean strategyBlue ocean Red Ocean strategy
Blue ocean Red Ocean strategyDavid Zaki
 
Game Industry - trends
Game Industry - trendsGame Industry - trends
Game Industry - trendsVictory Media
 
Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011
Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011
Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011Futurebooks
 
Strategy and Innovation for Nintendo
Strategy and Innovation for NintendoStrategy and Innovation for Nintendo
Strategy and Innovation for NintendoMathieu Lacaze
 
Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014
Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014
Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014Divya Singla
 
Nintendo marketing plan
Nintendo marketing plan Nintendo marketing plan
Nintendo marketing plan Kevin Hammond
 
Video Game Industry Trends
Video Game Industry TrendsVideo Game Industry Trends
Video Game Industry TrendsAlex Ferrara
 
Pest Analysis
Pest Analysis Pest Analysis
Pest Analysis AlecSwan1
 
Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective
Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective
Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective Motaz Agamawi
 
Nintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposal
Nintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposalNintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposal
Nintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposalJuan Mejia
 
Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive Festival
Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive FestivalChris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive Festival
Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive FestivalHandheldLearning
 
Nintendo Company Market Analysis
Nintendo Company Market AnalysisNintendo Company Market Analysis
Nintendo Company Market AnalysisPatrick Walter
 
Spil Games:The rise of Social Gaming
Spil Games:The rise of Social GamingSpil Games:The rise of Social Gaming
Spil Games:The rise of Social Gamingspilgames
 

What's hot (20)

Nintendo Strategic Recommendation
Nintendo Strategic RecommendationNintendo Strategic Recommendation
Nintendo Strategic Recommendation
 
Case Stydy of Stratigic Management for Nintendo
Case Stydy of Stratigic Management for NintendoCase Stydy of Stratigic Management for Nintendo
Case Stydy of Stratigic Management for Nintendo
 
Gaming
GamingGaming
Gaming
 
Blue ocean Red Ocean strategy
Blue ocean Red Ocean strategyBlue ocean Red Ocean strategy
Blue ocean Red Ocean strategy
 
Eco eco. of gaming inc.
Eco eco. of gaming inc.Eco eco. of gaming inc.
Eco eco. of gaming inc.
 
Game Industry - trends
Game Industry - trendsGame Industry - trends
Game Industry - trends
 
Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011
Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011
Mobile Game Industry Analysis 2011
 
Strategy and Innovation for Nintendo
Strategy and Innovation for NintendoStrategy and Innovation for Nintendo
Strategy and Innovation for Nintendo
 
Gaming
GamingGaming
Gaming
 
Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014
Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014
Nintendo_Strategic_Analysis_2014
 
Wii
WiiWii
Wii
 
Nintendo marketing plan
Nintendo marketing plan Nintendo marketing plan
Nintendo marketing plan
 
Video Game Industry Trends
Video Game Industry TrendsVideo Game Industry Trends
Video Game Industry Trends
 
Pest Analysis
Pest Analysis Pest Analysis
Pest Analysis
 
Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective
Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective
Exploring game industry from an Egyptian perspective
 
Nintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposal
Nintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposalNintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposal
Nintendo Marketing Strategy analysis and proposal
 
Game's key platforms
Game's key platformsGame's key platforms
Game's key platforms
 
Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive Festival
Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive FestivalChris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive Festival
Chris Deering - Keynote Edinburgh Interactive Festival
 
Nintendo Company Market Analysis
Nintendo Company Market AnalysisNintendo Company Market Analysis
Nintendo Company Market Analysis
 
Spil Games:The rise of Social Gaming
Spil Games:The rise of Social GamingSpil Games:The rise of Social Gaming
Spil Games:The rise of Social Gaming
 

Viewers also liked

Introduction to welding processes r1 1
Introduction to  welding processes r1 1Introduction to  welding processes r1 1
Introduction to welding processes r1 1AjiNkya Parab
 
4. heredity and evolution
4. heredity and evolution4. heredity and evolution
4. heredity and evolutionAbhay Goyal
 
Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4
Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4
Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4Fabien Potencier
 
English Parts Of Speech
English Parts Of SpeechEnglish Parts Of Speech
English Parts Of Speechguesta684c8b
 
General Motors 2005: Crisis and Way Out
General Motors 2005: Crisis and Way OutGeneral Motors 2005: Crisis and Way Out
General Motors 2005: Crisis and Way OutPiyorot Piyachan
 
Political Development of the Philippine Government
Political Development of the Philippine GovernmentPolitical Development of the Philippine Government
Political Development of the Philippine GovernmentJheng Reyes
 
Anatomy of maxilla and mandible
Anatomy of maxilla and mandibleAnatomy of maxilla and mandible
Anatomy of maxilla and mandibleFardan Qadeer
 
Product and service design
Product and service designProduct and service design
Product and service designGrace Falcis
 
The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)
The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)
The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)Lara McCulloch-Carter
 
Engaging Learners with Technology
Engaging Learners with TechnologyEngaging Learners with Technology
Engaging Learners with TechnologyDean Shareski
 
Basics of c++ Programming Language
Basics of c++ Programming LanguageBasics of c++ Programming Language
Basics of c++ Programming LanguageAhmad Idrees
 
Industrial disputes act, 1947
Industrial disputes act, 1947Industrial disputes act, 1947
Industrial disputes act, 1947Bibin Ssb
 
Importance of antenatal care
Importance of antenatal careImportance of antenatal care
Importance of antenatal careAbir Chowdhury
 

Viewers also liked (20)

Vaccination
VaccinationVaccination
Vaccination
 
Introduction to welding processes r1 1
Introduction to  welding processes r1 1Introduction to  welding processes r1 1
Introduction to welding processes r1 1
 
Meningitis In Children
Meningitis  In ChildrenMeningitis  In Children
Meningitis In Children
 
5000 Sat Words With Definitions
5000 Sat Words With Definitions5000 Sat Words With Definitions
5000 Sat Words With Definitions
 
4. heredity and evolution
4. heredity and evolution4. heredity and evolution
4. heredity and evolution
 
Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4
Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4
Dependency injection in PHP 5.3/5.4
 
English Parts Of Speech
English Parts Of SpeechEnglish Parts Of Speech
English Parts Of Speech
 
General Motors 2005: Crisis and Way Out
General Motors 2005: Crisis and Way OutGeneral Motors 2005: Crisis and Way Out
General Motors 2005: Crisis and Way Out
 
Atherosclerosis ppt
Atherosclerosis pptAtherosclerosis ppt
Atherosclerosis ppt
 
Lean Manufacturing - Toyota Production System
Lean Manufacturing - Toyota Production SystemLean Manufacturing - Toyota Production System
Lean Manufacturing - Toyota Production System
 
Political Development of the Philippine Government
Political Development of the Philippine GovernmentPolitical Development of the Philippine Government
Political Development of the Philippine Government
 
Anatomy of maxilla and mandible
Anatomy of maxilla and mandibleAnatomy of maxilla and mandible
Anatomy of maxilla and mandible
 
Real Estate Listing Presentation
Real Estate Listing PresentationReal Estate Listing Presentation
Real Estate Listing Presentation
 
Product and service design
Product and service designProduct and service design
Product and service design
 
Tweak Your Resume
Tweak Your ResumeTweak Your Resume
Tweak Your Resume
 
The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)
The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)
The NEW Way to Win Friends & Influence People (social media in events)
 
Engaging Learners with Technology
Engaging Learners with TechnologyEngaging Learners with Technology
Engaging Learners with Technology
 
Basics of c++ Programming Language
Basics of c++ Programming LanguageBasics of c++ Programming Language
Basics of c++ Programming Language
 
Industrial disputes act, 1947
Industrial disputes act, 1947Industrial disputes act, 1947
Industrial disputes act, 1947
 
Importance of antenatal care
Importance of antenatal careImportance of antenatal care
Importance of antenatal care
 

Similar to When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?

Challenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame Industry
Challenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame IndustryChallenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame Industry
Challenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame Industrydiglondon
 
Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization
Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization
Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization Soumo Dhali
 
Game in progress new business models for the videogame industry
Game in progress new business models for the videogame industryGame in progress new business models for the videogame industry
Game in progress new business models for the videogame industryLuc Bourcier
 
Final Presentation
Final PresentationFinal Presentation
Final PresentationMattM
 
Final Presentation
Final PresentationFinal Presentation
Final PresentationMattM
 
Financial issues and market trends
Financial issues and market trends Financial issues and market trends
Financial issues and market trends Ham'zzah Mir-zza
 
game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003finance32
 
game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003finance32
 
Strategic analysis on nintendo
Strategic analysis on nintendoStrategic analysis on nintendo
Strategic analysis on nintendoLinsen Mu
 
Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014
Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014
Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014Tomek Kreczmar
 
Moving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer Products
Moving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer ProductsMoving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer Products
Moving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer ProductsDudi Peles
 
Industry Analysis
Industry AnalysisIndustry Analysis
Industry AnalysisPeter Zhang
 
Innovation of a different kind in the traditional toys market
Innovation of a different kind in the traditional toys marketInnovation of a different kind in the traditional toys market
Innovation of a different kind in the traditional toys marketDudi Peles
 
コロンビア経営大学院にて講義
コロンビア経営大学院にて講義コロンビア経営大学院にて講義
コロンビア経営大学院にて講義Shinra_Technologies
 
Games Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 French
Games  Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 FrenchGames  Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 French
Games Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 FrenchPierre Casanova
 
Wii and Wii U presentation
Wii and Wii U presentationWii and Wii U presentation
Wii and Wii U presentationThomas Collet
 
The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011
The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011
The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011Justin Berenbaum
 
The Bu$Iness Of Games LATAM
The  Bu$Iness Of  Games  LATAMThe  Bu$Iness Of  Games  LATAM
The Bu$Iness Of Games LATAMJustin Berenbaum
 

Similar to When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next? (20)

State of the Game Industry 2008
State of the Game Industry 2008State of the Game Industry 2008
State of the Game Industry 2008
 
Challenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame Industry
Challenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame IndustryChallenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame Industry
Challenges and Oppotunities in the Videogame Industry
 
Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization
Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization
Gaming a blast to technology, economy and globalization
 
Game in progress new business models for the videogame industry
Game in progress new business models for the videogame industryGame in progress new business models for the videogame industry
Game in progress new business models for the videogame industry
 
Final Presentation
Final PresentationFinal Presentation
Final Presentation
 
Final Presentation
Final PresentationFinal Presentation
Final Presentation
 
Financial issues and market trends
Financial issues and market trends Financial issues and market trends
Financial issues and market trends
 
game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003
 
game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003game stop 10k2003
game stop 10k2003
 
Strategic analysis on nintendo
Strategic analysis on nintendoStrategic analysis on nintendo
Strategic analysis on nintendo
 
Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014
Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014
Wiem, że nic nie wiem - moja krótka analiza rynku gier na Łódź Game Summit 2014
 
Moving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer Products
Moving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer ProductsMoving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer Products
Moving form Physically Consumer Products to Digi-Physi Consumer Products
 
Industry Analysis
Industry AnalysisIndustry Analysis
Industry Analysis
 
Innovation of a different kind in the traditional toys market
Innovation of a different kind in the traditional toys marketInnovation of a different kind in the traditional toys market
Innovation of a different kind in the traditional toys market
 
コロンビア経営大学院にて講義
コロンビア経営大学院にて講義コロンビア経営大学院にて講義
コロンビア経営大学院にて講義
 
Games Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 French
Games  Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 FrenchGames  Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 French
Games Virtual World Economics Analysis 2008 French
 
Games industry
Games industryGames industry
Games industry
 
Wii and Wii U presentation
Wii and Wii U presentationWii and Wii U presentation
Wii and Wii U presentation
 
The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011
The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011
The Bu$iness of Games LATAM Sept_2011
 
The Bu$Iness Of Games LATAM
The  Bu$Iness Of  Games  LATAMThe  Bu$Iness Of  Games  LATAM
The Bu$Iness Of Games LATAM
 

Recently uploaded

PDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdf
PDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdfPDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdf
PDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdfHajeJanKamps
 
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024Winbusinessin
 
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...IMARC Group
 
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês  em formato pptPlano de marketing- inglês  em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato pptElizangelaSoaresdaCo
 
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarLive-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarNathanielSchmuck
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...Khaled Al Awadi
 
7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.ukaroemirsr
 
Intellectual Property Licensing Examples
Intellectual Property Licensing ExamplesIntellectual Property Licensing Examples
Intellectual Property Licensing Examplesamberjiles31
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBBPMedia1
 
Graham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdf
Graham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdfGraham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdf
Graham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdfAnhNguyen97152
 
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptxIntroduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptxJemalSeid25
 
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023Steve Rader
 
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdfChicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdfSourav Sikder
 
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb toLecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb toumarfarooquejamali32
 
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture ReportProject Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture Reportamberjiles31
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access
 
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..dlewis191
 
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...Brian Solis
 

Recently uploaded (20)

PDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdf
PDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdfPDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdf
PDT 89 - $1.4M - Seed - Plantee Innovations.pdf
 
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
Ethical stalking by Mark Williams. UpliftLive 2024
 
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
Boat Trailers Market PPT: Growth, Outlook, Demand, Keyplayer Analysis and Opp...
 
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês  em formato pptPlano de marketing- inglês  em formato ppt
Plano de marketing- inglês em formato ppt
 
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry WebinarLive-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
Live-Streaming in the Music Industry Webinar
 
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...NewBase  25 March  2024  Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
NewBase 25 March 2024 Energy News issue - 1710 by Khaled Al Awadi_compress...
 
7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk7movierulz.uk
7movierulz.uk
 
Intellectual Property Licensing Examples
Intellectual Property Licensing ExamplesIntellectual Property Licensing Examples
Intellectual Property Licensing Examples
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
 
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John MeulemansBCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
BCE24 | Virtual Brand Ambassadors: Making Brands Personal - John Meulemans
 
Graham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdf
Graham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdfGraham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdf
Graham and Doddsville - Issue 1 - Winter 2006 (1).pdf
 
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptxIntroduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
Introduction to The overview of GAAP LO 1-5.pptx
 
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
NASA CoCEI Scaling Strategy - November 2023
 
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdfChicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer Chicago Medical Malpractice Lawyer.pdf
 
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb toLecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
Lecture_6.pptx English speaking easyb to
 
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture ReportProject Brief & Information Architecture Report
Project Brief & Information Architecture Report
 
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global B2B Panel book-unlock 2024
 
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
Borderless Access - Global Panel book-unlock 2024
 
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
Team B Mind Map for Organizational Chg..
 
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
The End of Business as Usual: Rewire the Way You Work to Succeed in the Consu...
 

When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?

  • 1. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? BEN COUSINS (ALL MARKET INFORMATION CORRECT ON 7TH MARCH 2012)
  • 2. WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
  • 3. WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
  • 4. WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
  • 5. WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
  • 6. WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
  • 7. WHO IS THIS GUY ANYWAY?
  • 9. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
  • 10. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Die, for the purpose of this talk means ‘Significantly smaller market share with no sign of return’
  • 11. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for their need
  • 12. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for their need
  • 13. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Sales drop in absolute terms, often because customers move to a new solution for their need
  • 14. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Market share drops in relative terms, often because a new product massively expands the overall market
  • 15. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT? Die, for the purpose of this talk DOES NOT mean ‘The product is never used by anyone ever again’
  • 16. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
  • 17. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
  • 18. WHEN THE CONSOLES DIE, WHAT COMES NEXT?
  • 21. THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY The Old World
  • 22. THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% EA -61.77%
  • 23. THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% ATVI -33.34%
  • 24. THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% MSFT +24.39%
  • 25. THE OLD WORLD ‘Consumer Software, Services & Devices’, ‘Entertainment & Devices’ Division Profit/Loss Lifetime results for this division = $7.807B loss
  • 26. THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% SNE -46.42%
  • 27. THE OLD WORLD ‘Games’, ‘Networked Products & Services’, ‘Consumer Products & Services’ Results for this division since 2000 = ¥252.9B loss (around $3.1B)
  • 28. THE OLD WORLD NASDAQ +25.78% NTDOY -71.28%
  • 29. THE OLD WORLD US Annual sales (hardware and software) 1997-2011 (NPD, billions USD)
  • 30. THE OLD WORLD UK Annual sales (hardware and software, billions GBP)
  • 35. THE OLD WORLD IS LARGE BUT SHRINKING FAST • In summary; • Investors are not showing confidence in the future of large traditional publishers • Sony, Microsoft showing losses for console divisions over the last 10 years • Nintendo in ‘disarray’ • Retail sales dropping year on year since 2009 • Major European retailer Game in serious trouble • Casual & kids games on console and handhelds hit by an unseen force
  • 36. THE DEATH OF DEDICATED ELECTRONICS HARDWARE Down 17% Down 42.5% Down 32.6% Down 20.5% Down 20.8%
  • 37. THE STATE OF THE INDUSTRY The New World
  • 38. THE NEW WORLD Top 5 dedicated gaming companies by market cap, August 2008 (millions USD) 123 33 30 26 43
  • 39. THE NEW WORLD Top 5 dedicated gaming companies by market cap, March 2012 (millions USD) 123 33 5 8 18
  • 40. THE NEW WORLD Audience sizes for games 25 million sales 500 million downloads
  • 41. THE NEW WORLD ‘100’ 20 19 Market caps of platform companies (billions USD) 267 495 198
  • 42. THE NEW WORLD Combined market caps of platform companies (billions USD) 793 306
  • 43. THE NEW WORLD Growth rates of platforms (assumes 70% of iOS are gamers, 50% of FB are gamers, excludes iPod touch sales)
  • 44. THE NEW WORLD The Japanese revolution
  • 45. THE NEW WORLD IS GROWING VERY FAST • In summary; • Now 3 out of 5 of the world’s largest gaming companies distribute digitally, are freemium focussed • The audience sizes for a hit game has increased 20x on new platforms like FB, iOS and Android • New Mobile/Social platforms are driven by huge companies • In Japan freemium social mobile has already overtaken the traditional business
  • 46. THE LAST BIG CHANGE When The Arcades Died, What Came Next?
  • 47. THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research The 1980’s Traditional Retail revenue hovers between 3% and 35% of Arcade
  • 48. THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research The 1990’s Traditional Retail revenue grows steadily from 38% to 166% of Arcade
  • 49. THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research The 2000’s Traditional Retail revenue grows sharply, ending up 17x the size of (declining) Arcade
  • 50. THE LAST BIG CHANGE Per Capita Spending on Video Games in the United States by Revenue Model (2010 dollars) Copyright © 2012 SuperData Research What happened here? The Tipping Point What killed the arcade?
  • 51. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1980’s •Arcades dominated home experience •Better graphics •Bigger screens •Better controllers
  • 52. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1980’s •Arcades dominated home experience •Better graphics •Bigger screens •Better controllers
  • 53. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1980’s •Arcades dominated home experience •Better graphics •Bigger screens •Better controllers
  • 54. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1990’s • Arcades start much more powerful than home consoles • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start competing with textured 3D arcade games • Sony’s entry into the business - a company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as Naomi system board, less memory
  • 55. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1990’s • Arcades start much more powerful than home consoles • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start competing with textured 3D arcade games • Sony’s entry into the business - a company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as Naomi system board, less memory
  • 56. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 1990’s • Arcades start much more powerful than home consoles • Mid 90’s consoles and PC start competing with textured 3D arcade games • Sony’s entry into the business - a company 3.7x bigger than Nintendo • 1998 Dreamcast launched, same as Naomi system board, less memory
  • 57. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 2000’s • Home consoles now in parity or above arcades in power • Arcade still have better controllers, bigger screens • Microsoft’s entry into the business - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x Nintendo • Dead arcades - novelty controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
  • 58. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 2000’s • Home consoles now in parity or above arcades in power • Arcade still have better controllers, bigger screens • Microsoft’s entry into the business - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x Nintendo • Dead arcades - novelty controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
  • 59. THE LAST BIG CHANGE The 2000’s • Home consoles now in parity or above arcades in power • Arcade still have better controllers, bigger screens • Microsoft’s entry into the business - a company 6x Sony, 12.7x Nintendo • Dead arcades - novelty controllers/cabinets, 2D fighters
  • 60. THE TIPPING POINT • Two big things happened; 1.Bigger companies entered the games business • More marketing clout, grow the overall business 2.Chips got cheap enough and lower power enough • Creating an ‘arcade experience’ in the home, that pulled in the arcade gamers • Home consoles had always been cheaper and more convenient, but these advantages now really mattered • Worth noting arcades still often had bigger screens & always better controllers
  • 61. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE ? When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?
  • 62. THE NEXT BIG CHANGE When The Consoles Die, What Comes Next?
  • 63. THE DEATH OF DEDICATED ELECTRONICS HARDWARE Down 17% Down 42.5% Down 32.6% Down 20.5% Down 20.8%
  • 65. • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate • Disruptive tech enters the market • Incumbents don’t take it seriously • It rapidly increases in performance • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
  • 66. • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate Large scale businesses computing • Disruptive tech enters the Scientific market computing Personal • Incumbents don’t take it Computer seriously Small business computing • It rapidly increases in performance Hobby computing • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
  • 67. • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate AAA Console Games • Disruptive tech enters the market Handheld Games iOS/Android • Incumbents don’t take it devices seriously • It rapidly increases in Kids Games performance Casual Phone Games • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
  • 68. We are here • ’Sustaining Technologies’ dominate AAA Console Games • Disruptive tech enters the market Handheld Games iOS/Android • Incumbents don’t take it devices seriously • It rapidly increases in Kids Games performance Casual Phone Games • Disruptive tech replaces all usages
  • 69. DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER My Little Tank (2005)
  • 70. DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER Gran Turismo 4 (Polyphony Digital 2005) God of War (Sony Santa Monica 2005)
  • 71. DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER Infinity Blade Dungeons (Epic 2012)
  • 72. DISRUPTIVE TECH MOVES FASTER Modern Warfare 3 (Activision 2011)
  • 73. WHAT’S HAPPENING RIGHT NOW? • Two big things are happening; 1.Bigger companies have entered the games business • More marketing clout grows the overall business 2.Chips are getting cheap enough and lower power enough • Creating a ‘console experience’ on the move, pulling in the console gamers • Mobile games have always been cheaper and more convenient, but these advantages now really matter • Worth noting that consoles will still often had bigger screens & always better controllers
  • 74. WHAT A STRANGE, MARGINALIZED OPINION!
  • 75. JOHN CARMACK “platform wise, you could certainly imagine a future where, instead of having your console, you have your mobile device”
  • 76. PHIL HARRISON “If they carry on unrestrained in their growth, then there’s a pretty good chance that Apple will be the games industry”
  • 78. HIDEO KOJIMA “Gamers should be able to take the experience with them in their living rooms, on the go, when they travel -- wherever they are and whenever they want to play. It should be the same software and the same experience,”
  • 79. GABE NEWELL “I suspect Apple will launch a living room product that redefines people's expectations really strongly and the notion of a separate console platform will disappear”
  • 80. KOTAKU ‘Tim Cook holds the future of gaming in his hands.’
  • 81. CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV!
  • 82. CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV! % of the US population who visited the cinema on a weekly basis (Michelle Pautz, Elon University, 2002)
  • 83. CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV! Total UK cinema attendance (British Film Institute, Cinema Advertising Association & Rentrack EDI)
  • 84. CONSOLES WONT DIE - CINEMA WASN'T KILLED BY TV! UK box office cinema revenue as a % of GDP (Bakker 2008 and ONS)
  • 85. CINEMA WAS CRUSHED BY TV • The ‘platform holder’ (cinema) didn’t do ok - thousands of cinemas closed down • The ‘content people’ (movie studios/distributors) did ok • Made movies available on the lower-res ‘free to watch’ TV and ‘for hire’ VHS platforms • Games content developers need to do the same - move content to new low-res platforms - or we will suffer the same fate as the cinema

Editor's Notes

  1. \n