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The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes

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Keynote at SAGEO 2019 conference. Spatial Analysis and Geomatics at Clermont-Ferrand

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The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes

  1. 1. Beniamino Murgante The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes School of Engineering, University of Basilicata beniamino.murgante@unibas.it http://oldwww.unibas.it/utenti/murgante/Benny.html https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Beniamino_Murgante
  2. 2. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  3. 3. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  4. 4. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Executive Order 12906 Coordinating Geographic Data Acquisition and Access: The National Spatial Data Infrastructure (NSDI)
  5. 5. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Web Mapping Service (WMS) Web Feature Service (WFS) Web Coverage Service (WCS)
  6. 6. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Open Data Classification proposed by Tim Berners-Lee
  7. 7. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante • Volunteered Geographic Information (VGI) • Citizens as Voluntary Sensors Goodchild, 2007
  8. 8. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Matera and OpenStreetMap
  9. 9. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Potenza and OpenStreetMap 07/01/2015 30/05/2015 Scorza F., Las Casas G., Murgante B., Amato F., (2019) "City Dashboards for Urban Planning" Journal of Urban Technology
  10. 10. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Scorza F., Las Casas G., Murgante B., Amato F., (2019) "City Dashboards for Urban Planning" Journal of Urban Technology
  11. 11. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante http://resultmaps.neis-one.org/osm-typhoon-haiyan-2013- contributors http://www.theguardian.com/technology/2013/nov/15/online-volunteers-map-philippines- after-typhoon-haiyan
  12. 12. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante http://faculty.washington.edu/kstarbi/TtT_Hurricane_Map_byEvent.html
  13. 13. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante http://http://www.cs.colorado.edu/~starbird/TtT_Irene_map_byEvent.html
  14. 14. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Saganeiti L., Amato, F.; Nolè, G.; Murgante, B., “VGI and crisis mapping in an emergency situation. Comparison of four case studies: Haiti, Kibera, Kathmandu, Centre Italy” Geomedia Volume 3 pp 26- 29, 2017
  15. 15. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Google maps Amatrice OSM Amatrice Saganeiti L., Amato, F.; Nolè, G.; Murgante, B., “VGI and crisis mapping in an emergency situation. Comparison of four case studies: Haiti, Kibera, Kathmandu, Centre Italy” Geomedia Volume 3 pp 26- 29, 2017
  16. 16. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Nuvola di punti POST sisma Dataset LiDAR DSM e DTM ACQUISIZIONE DATI POST 29 Agosto 2016 Rilievo Lidar PCFVG PRE 2008 Rilievo LiDAR MATTM Classificazione punti .las/.laz Importazione punti .xyz Nuvola di punti RASTER GRID Nuvola di punti RASTER GRID DSM DTMDSM DSM POST sisma
  17. 17. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Saganeiti L., Amato, F.; Nolè, G.; Potleca M., Vona M.; Murgante, B., “Change Detection and Classification of Seismic Damage with LiDAR and RADAR Surveys in Supporting Emergency Planning. The Case of Amatrice” Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 10407 pp 722- 731, Springer Verlag, Berlin, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-62401-3_53
  18. 18. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante DSMPRE – DSMPOST Saganeiti L., Amato, F.; Nolè, G.; Potleca M., Vona M.; Murgante, B., “Change Detection and Classification of Seismic Damage with LiDAR and RADAR Surveys in Supporting Emergency Planning. The Case of Amatrice” Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 10407 pp 722-731, Springer Verlag, Berlin, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-62401-3_53
  19. 19. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Edifici realizzati dopo il 2008Edifici interessati da crolli DSMPRE – DSMPOST Saganeiti L., Amato, F.; Nolè, G.; Potleca M., Vona M.; Murgante, B., “Change Detection and Classification of Seismic Damage with LiDAR and RADAR Surveys in Supporting Emergency Planning. The Case of Amatrice” Lecture Notes in Computer Science Volume 10407 pp 722- 731, Springer Verlag, Berlin, DOI: 10.1007/978-3-319-62401-3_53
  20. 20. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante CLASSIFICATION OF SEISMIC DAMAGES 4 e 5 CLASSES EMS98 Classe 5 Δh≥1,50 m Classe 4 0,40<Δh<1,50 m Inf. classe 4 Δh≤0,40 m
  21. 21. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  22. 22. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  23. 23. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato F., Botonico G., Graziadei A., Sassano G., Murgante B., Scorza F. ”Innovation, technologies, Participation” International Journal of Electronic Governance 11(1):1 2019 DOI:10.1504/IJEG.2019.10018374
  24. 24. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Walk, Count, Map, Draw, look for traces, Photograph, annotate on a diary Amato F., Botonico G., Graziadei A., Sassano G., Murgante B., Scorza F. ”Innovation, technologies, Participation” International Journal of Electronic Governance 11(1):1 2019 DOI:10.1504/IJEG.2019.10018374
  25. 25. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante 1. WALKABILITY 2. GREEN AREAS 3. ACTIVITIES AND USE OF SPACE Amato F., Botonico G., Graziadei A., Sassano G., Murgante B., Scorza F. ”Innovation, technologies, Participation” International Journal of Electronic Governance 11(1):1 2019 DOI:10.1504/IJEG.2019.10018374
  26. 26. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante WALKABILITY: walkability is a measure of how friendly an area is to walking pedestrian network: sidewalks, porticoes, footpaths, flight of steps, road crossings, discontinuity and not accessibility, Maintenance and conditions, interruptions of the sidewalks
  27. 27. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  28. 28. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  29. 29. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  30. 30. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato F., Botonico G., Graziadei A., Sassano G., Murgante B., Scorza F. ”Innovation, technologies, Participation” International Journal of Electronic Governance 11(1):1 2019
  31. 31. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante “Data is the new oil. It’s valuable, but if unrefined it cannot really be used. It has to be changed into gas, plastic, chemicals, etc to create a valuable entity that drives profitable activity; so must data be broken down, analyzed for it to have value” Clive Humby 2006 "the paradox of the great civilization change consists in the fact that we have practically unlimited access to information and data and yet we are nearly unable to use it in any way". Manuel Castels 2009 Models are the new gold
  32. 32. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Dan Ariely Big data: What is it?
  33. 33. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante The term “Big data” on scopus (in title, keywords, abstract) Summer 2019 65230 documents (great part form USA and China)
  34. 34. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  35. 35. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante It is vital to use theory as a guide to experimental design for maximal efficiency of data collection and to produce reliable predictive models and conceptual knowledge. Rather than continuing to fund, pursue and promote ‘blind’ big data projects with massive budgets, it could be better to elucidate the multiscale and stochastic processes controlling the behaviour of complex systems. The field of big data is important but its impact is diminished without big theory. Coveney et al 2016
  36. 36. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Tobler's First Law of Geography “All things are related, but nearby things are more related than distant things” (1970) åå åå == == = n j ij n i n j ijij n i w wc SAC 11 11 Where: •n is the number of objects; •i and j are two objects; •xi is the value of object i attribute; •cij is a degree of similarity of attributes i and j; •wij is a degree of similarity of location i and j; (Goodchild, 1986; Lee and Wong, 2001) Autocorrelation
  37. 37. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Geary C Ratio (1954) 2 __ 2 )()(2 ))()(1( xxw xxwN c iiijji jiijji -SSS -SS- =if cij=(xi−xj)2 Moran index (1948) 2 __ ____ )()( ))(( xxw xxxxwN I iiijji jiijji -SSS --SS = if )()( ____ xxxxc jiij --= Autocorrelation
  38. 38. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Local Spatial Autocorrelation Statistics å= ×= N j jijii zwzI 1 Local Indicator of Spatial Association (Anselin, 1995) G function by Getis and Ord (1992) ( ) ( )( )å= - - = N j jij X i i XXw S XX I 1 2 Zi = Xi − X( ) SX Local version of the Geary Ratio
  39. 39. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Clusters localization with the Getis and Ord function Murgante B. Danese M. (2011) "Urban versus Rural: the decrease of agricultural areas and the development of urban zones analyzed with spatial statistics" International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems (IJAEIS) volume 2(2) pp. 16– 28 IGI Global, ISSN 1947- 3192, DOI:10.4018/jaeis.201107010 2
  40. 40. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Clusters localization with the Getis and Ord function
  41. 41. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Clusters localization with the Getis and Ord function
  42. 42. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Clusters localization with the Getis and Ord function
  43. 43. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Clusters localization with the Getis and Ord function Murgante B. Danese M. (2011) "Urban versus Rural: the decrease of agricultural areas and the development of urban zones analyzed with spatial statistics" International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems (IJAEIS) volume 2(2) pp. 16– 28 IGI Global, ISSN 1947- 3192, DOI:10.4018/jaeis.201107010 2
  44. 44. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante G function by Getis and Ord Nolè, G., Lasaponara, R., Lanorte A., Murgante, B., (2014) " Quantifying Urban Sprawl with Spatial Autocorrelation Techniques using Multi-Temporal Satellite Data" International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems, 5(2), 20-38, April-June 2014 IGI Global DOI:10.4018/IJAEIS.2014040102
  45. 45. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Local Geary Nolè, G., Lasaponara, R., Lanorte A., Murgante, B., (2014) " Quantifying Urban Sprawl with Spatial Autocorrelation Techniques using Multi-Temporal Satellite Data" International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems, 5(2), 20-38, April-June 2014 IGI Global DOI:10.4018/IJAEIS.2014040102
  46. 46. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Local Indicator of Spatial Association Nolè, G., Lasaponara, R., Lanorte A., Murgante, B., (2014) " Quantifying Urban Sprawl with Spatial Autocorrelation Techniques using Multi-Temporal Satellite Data" International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems, 5(2), 20-38, April-June 2014 IGI Global DOI:10.4018/IJAEIS.2014040102
  47. 47. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  48. 48. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Nolè, G., Lasaponara, R., Lanorte A., Murgante, B., (2014) " Quantifying Urban Sprawl with Spatial Autocorrelation Techniques using Multi-Temporal Satellite Data" International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems, 5(2), 20-38, April-June 2014 IGI Global DOI:10.4018/IJAEIS.2014040102
  49. 49. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Nolè, G., Lasaponara, R., Lanorte A., Murgante, B., (2014) " Quantifying Urban Sprawl with Spatial Autocorrelation Techniques using Multi- Temporal Satellite Data" International Journal of Agricultural and Environmental Information Systems, 5(2), 20-38, April-June 2014 IGI Global DOI:10.4018/IJAEIS.2014040102
  50. 50. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Lanorte, A., Danese M., Lasaponara R., Murgante B. (2011) "Multiscale mapping of burn area and severity using multisensor satellite data and spatial autocorrelation analysis" International Journal of Applied Earth Observation and Geoinformation
  51. 51. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Luxor city 416 km2 Population 506,588
  52. 52. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Elfadaly, A., Attia, W., Qelichi, M.M., Murgante B., Lasaponara R. (2018) “Management of Cultural Heritage Sites Using Remote Sensing Indices and Spatial Analysis Techniques”Surveys in Geophysics, Volume 39, Issue 6, pp 1347–1377.
  53. 53. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  54. 54. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  55. 55. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  56. 56. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F., Pontrandolfi, P., Murgante, B., 2015, Supporting planning activities with the assessment and the prediction of urban sprawl using spatio-temporal analysis, Ecological Informatics, Volume 30, November 2015, Pages 365–378 doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2015.07.004
  57. 57. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F., Pontrandolfi, P., Murgante, B., 2015, Supporting planning activities with the assessment and the prediction of urban sprawl using spatio-temporal analysis, Ecological Informatics, Volume 30, November 2015, Pages 365–378 doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2015.07.004
  58. 58. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F., Pontrandolfi, P., Murgante, B., 2015, Supporting planning activities with the assessment and the prediction of urban sprawl using spatio-temporal analysis, Ecological Informatics, Volume 30, November 2015, Pages 365–378 doi:10.1016/j.ecoinf.2015.07.004 Quantity of built-up areas [ha] measured at different times.
  59. 59. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato F., Martellozzo F., Nolè G., Murgante B. (2016) “Preserving cultural heritage by supporting landscape planning with quantitative predictions of soil consumption” Journal of Cultural Heritage Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.culher.2015.12.009.
  60. 60. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Results Calibration Coefficients Growth simulation cycles Initial patterns Land Use/Land Cover change model, SLEUTH
  61. 61. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato F., Martellozzo F., Nolè G., Murgante B. (2016) “Preserving cultural heritage by supporting landscape planning with quantitative predictions of soil consumption” Journal of Cultural Heritage Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.culher.2015.12. 009.
  62. 62. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato F., Martellozzo F., Nolè G., Murgante B. (2016) “Preserving cultural heritage by supporting landscape planning with quantitative predictions of soil consumption” Journal of Cultural Heritage Elsevier doi:10.1016/j.culher.2015.12.009.
  63. 63. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  64. 64. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Maimone, B.A.; Martellozzo, F.; Nolè, G.; Murgante, B. (2016) The Effects of Urban Policies on the Development of Urban Areas. Sustainability 2016, 8, 297. doi:10.3390/su8040297
  65. 65. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Maimone, B.A.; Martellozzo, F.; Nolè, G.; Murgante, B. (2016) The Effects of Urban Policies on the Development of Urban Areas. Sustainability 2016, 8, 297. doi:10.3390/su8040297
  66. 66. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Maimone, B.A.; Martellozzo, F.; Nolè, G.; Murgante, B. (2016) The Effects of Urban Policies on the Development of Urban Areas. Sustainability 2016, 8, 297. doi:10.3390/su8040297
  67. 67. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Scorza F., Las Casas G., Murgante B., Amato F., (2019) "City Dashboards for Urban Planning" Journal of Urban Technology DOI 10.1080/10630732.2019.1614895
  68. 68. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Maimone, B.A.; Martellozzo, F.; Nolè, G.; Murgante, B. (2016) The Effects of Urban Policies on the Development of Urban Areas. Sustainability 2016, 8, 297. doi:10.3390/su8040297
  69. 69. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Maimone, B.A.; Martellozzo, F.; Nolè, G.; Murgante, B. (2016) The Effects of Urban Policies on the Development of Urban Areas. Sustainability 2016, 8, 297. doi:10.3390/su8040297
  70. 70. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  71. 71. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Martellozzo, F.; Murgante B.; Clarke, K. (2018) Balancing urban expansion against agriculture and natural land loss: Scenario-based Modelling of urbanization and ecological losses in Italy to 2030 Applied Geography 91, pp. 156-167 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.004
  72. 72. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Martellozzo, F.; Murgante B.; Clarke, K. (2018) Balancing urban expansion against agriculture and natural land loss: Scenario-based Modelling of urbanization and ecological losses in Italy to 2030 Applied Geography 91, pp. 156-167 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.004 The Number of Total Transactions (NTT). The Housing Market Index (HMI), which consists in the ration of NTT with the stock of residential unit existing in a specific territorial unit. Code of Cultural and Landscape Heritage The Natura 2000 Project Housing Market Index Areas within a 300m buffer from the coastal line (CBCPa). Areas within a 300m buffer from the coastal line of lakes (CBCPb). Water streams, river zones and areas within a buffer of 150m from these (CBCPc). Glaciers and perennial snow areas (CBCPd). National and regional reserves and parks (CBCPe). Forests and woodlands (CBCPf). Wetlands (CBCPg). Sites of Community Importance (SCIs) and Special Areas of Conservation (SACs). SACs are usually included within SCIs. Special Protection Areas (SPAs). In Italy, these areas cover about 19% of inland and 4% of marine areas. Important Bird Areas (IBA) 𝑆"#$ = ∑' ( 𝑊' ∗ 𝑉' 𝑆"#$ is the value assumed by each pixels of the synthesis map 𝑊' is the weight of ith criteria 𝑉' is the value of the map representing the ith criteria at any given location
  73. 73. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Martellozzo, F.; Murgante B.; Clarke, K. (2018) Balancing urban expansion against agriculture and natural land loss: Scenario-based Modelling of urbanization and ecological losses in Italy to 2030 Applied Geography 91, pp. 156-167 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.004
  74. 74. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Martellozzo, F.; Murgante B.; Clarke, K. (2018) Balancing urban expansion against agriculture and natural land loss: Scenario-based Modelling of urbanization and ecological losses in Italy to 2030 Applied Geography 91, pp. 156-167 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.004 Scenario conservation Scenario BAU/diffusion CBCPa 0,112 0,085 CBCPb 0,112 0,085 CBCPc 0,112 0,085 CBCPd 0,112 0,085 CBCPe 0,112 0,085 CBCPf 0,112 0,085 CBCPg 0,112 0,085 SCIs 0,047 0,033 SPAs 0,047 0,033 IBA 0,031 0,022 HMI 0,02 0,32 Criteria’s weights resulting from the AHP and used for the scenario conservation and for the scenario BAU/diffusion.
  75. 75. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Martellozzo, F.; Murgante B.; Clarke, K. (2018) Balancing urban expansion against agriculture and natural land loss: Scenario-based Modelling of urbanization and ecological losses in Italy to 2030 Applied Geography 91, pp. 156- 167 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.004
  76. 76. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Martellozzo, F.; Murgante B.; Clarke, K. (2018) Balancing urban expansion against agriculture and natural land loss: Scenario-based Modelling of urbanization and ecological losses in Italy to 2030 Applied Geography 91, pp. 156-167 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.004
  77. 77. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Amato, F.; Martellozzo, F.; Murgante B.; Clarke, K. (2018) Balancing urban expansion against agriculture and natural land loss: Scenario-based Modelling of urbanization and ecological losses in Italy to 2030 Applied Geography 91, pp. 156-167 DOI: 10.1016/j.apgeog.2017.12.004 LUCC dynamics between 2012 and 2030 according to the Diffusion scenario LUCC dynamics between 2012 and 2030 according to the Conservation scenario
  78. 78. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Cosentino, C.; Amato, F.; Murgante, B. Population-Based Simulation of Urban Growth: The Italian Case Study. Sustainability 2018, 10, 4838. FUTure Urban-Regional Environment Simulation
  79. 79. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Cosentino, C.; Amato, F.; Murgante, B. Population-Based Simulation of Urban Growth: The Italian Case Study. Sustainability 2018, 10, 4838.
  80. 80. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  81. 81. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Urban sprawl vs Urban sprinkling Urban sprawl - Europe Urban sprinkling – Italy (Policoro) Urban sprawl: “the spreading of urban developments (such as houses and shopping centers) on undeveloped land near a city” Urban sprinkling: “a small quantity distributed in drops or scattered particles”
  82. 82. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Building density and population density Year Population (No.) Residential Buildings [BR] (n) Dp (Inhabitants/ha) Db (BR/ha) 1950 627,586 117,687 0.63 0.12 1989 610,186 238,603 0.61 0.24 1998 597,468 269,019 0.60 0.27 2006 591,338 285,072 0.59 0.28 2013 578,391 297,810 0.58 0.30
  83. 83. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  84. 84. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante 2 Methods: - xi and yi are the coordinates of the centroid of each polygon of urbanized areas falling in each cell of 1 km2 of the grid in Method 1, and in each municipality in Method 2, respectively; - x* and y* are the coordinates of the centroid of the greater nucleus. In Method 1, the greater nucleus of each cell at each temporal instant is considered. In Method 2, the greater nucleus of each municipality at time t0 (i.e., the first temporal instant considered) is considered. - R is the radius of the circular area of similar size to that of the sum of urbanized areas present, for each cell (Method 1) and for each municipality (Method 2). SPX = +∞SPX = 0 NOT FRAGMENTED HIGHLY FRAGMENTED SPX index - 1x1 Km square grid - Administrative level
  85. 85. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Fragmentation Degree SPX 1 Not fragmented SPX = 0 Low fragmentation 0 < SPX < 50 Medium-low fragmentation 50 ≤ SPX < 100 Medium fragmentation 100 ≤ SPX < 150 Medium-high fragmentation 150 ≤ SPX < 200 High fragmentation SPX ≥ 200 SPX index - Method 1
  86. 86. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Fragmentation Degree SPX 1 Low fragmentation SPX < 1 Medium-low fragmentation 1 ≤ SPX < 3.5 Medium fragmentation 3.5 ≤ SPX < 6 Medium-high fragmentation 6 ≤ SPX < 8.5 High fragmentation SPX ≥ 8.5 1 All SPX index values were divided by 1000. SPX index - Method 2
  87. 87. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  88. 88. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Residential buildings in NATURA 2000 sites EUAP: national park of Pollino_Basilicata region (Italy) Site Denomination Bio-geographic region Updating Surface [ha] SCI-SAC SPA Municipality N° of residential buildings [2013] C Gravine di Matera Mediterranea 2012 6968,49 ZSC ZPS Matera - Montescaglioso 843 B Serra di Calvello Mediterranea 2012 1641,35 ZSC Calvello - Marsico Nuovo 17 C Valle del Tuorno - Bosco Luceto Mediterranea 2010 75,35 ZSC ZPS Savoia di Lucania 0 B Abetina di Laurenzana Mediterranea 2012 324,39 ZSC Laurenzana 1
  89. 89. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Residential buildings in hydro-geological risk areas Years Residential buildings (total) (n) Residential buildings in R3 (n) Residential buildings in R4 (n) Residential buildings in R3+R4 (n) Residential buildings in R3+R4 (%) 2006 285.072 10.816 13.079 23.895 8,38 2013 297.810 11.012 13.266 24.278 8,15 (+1,60%) R3: HIGH RISK dangers for the safety of persons, functional damage to buildings and infrastructures and significant damage to the environmental heritage R4: VERY HIGH RISK loss of life and serious injury to people, serious damage to buildings, infrastructure and environmental heritage, destruction of socio- economic activities.
  90. 90. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  91. 91. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  92. 92. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante 1. Before 2015 2. between 2015 and 2017 3. After 2017 1. Micro-mini plants (small size) up to 200 kW 2. Medium-sized plants between 200 kW and 1 MW 3. Large plants with an installed power greater than 1MW, radius of influence. Classification of wind power plants: Periods of wind power plants installation
  93. 93. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  94. 94. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  95. 95. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  96. 96. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante SPX index - xi and yi are the coordinates of the centroid (Ci) of each polygon of urbanized areas falling in each cell of 1 km2 of the grid. - x* and y* are the coordinates of the centroid of the greater nucleus (C*). The greater nucleus of each cell at each temporal instant is considered. - R is the radius of the circular area of similar size to that of the sum of urbanized areas present, for each cell. SPX = +∞SPX = 0 NOT FRAGMENTED HIGHLY FRAGMENTED 1km C* C1 C2 C3 C4 C5 C6 C7C8
  97. 97. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Fragmentation Degree SPX Not urbanized Null Not fragmented SPX = 0 Low fragmentation 0 < SPX < 50 Medium-low fragmentation 50 ≤ SPX < 100 Medium fragmentation 100 ≤ SPX < 150 Medium-high fragmentation 150 ≤ SPX < 200 High fragmentation SPX ≥ 200
  98. 98. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  99. 99. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Layer Original format Influence radius [m] Aggregation distance [m] LB LBr Polygon 10 50 LBi Polygon 25 50 LRES LRESw Point 15 – 25 - 35 250 LRESf Polygon 25 - LHw Polygon - -
  100. 100. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  101. 101. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  102. 102. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  103. 103. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  104. 104. The study area (about 300 km²) includes five municipalities in the province of Potenza: Cancellara, Pietragalla, San Chirico Nuovo, Tolve e Vaglio Basilicata. Tipologia Potenza generatore (kW) Micro-mini eolico P < 200 Medio eolico 200 ≤ P < 1000 Grande eolico P ≥ 1000 Comune di Cancellara (PZ)
  105. 105. Land cover map at 2018
  106. 106. Applicazione del modello “Habitat Quality” Land cover map at 2013 Land cover map at 2018
  107. 107. Applicazione del modello “Habitat Quality” THREATS If 𝑆,- = 0 then 𝐷0, it is not a function of the threat r-th and therefore it will be: 𝐷0, = 0 ! 𝑖-02 = 1 − 567 58 9:6 if linear (I) 𝑖-02 = 𝑒𝑥𝑝 − >.@@ 58 9:6 𝑑02 if esponential (II) 2. Relative distance 3. Level of legal/institutional /social /physical protection 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 = ∑ 𝒓F𝟏 𝑹 ∑𝒋F𝟏 𝒀 𝒓 𝒘 𝒓 ∑ 𝒓K𝟏 𝑹 𝒘 𝒓 𝒓 𝒚 𝒊 𝒓𝒙𝒚 𝜷 𝒙 𝑺𝒋𝒓 (III) 4. Relative sensitivity (𝐒𝐣𝐫) 1. Relative impact 𝑖-02 = 𝐼𝑚𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑟 𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑦 𝑤𝑖𝑡ℎ 𝑒𝑓𝑓𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑠 𝑖𝑛 𝑥 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑑02 = 𝐷𝑖𝑠𝑡𝑎𝑛𝑐𝑒 𝑏𝑒𝑡𝑤𝑒𝑒𝑛 𝑥 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑦 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙𝑠 d𝑟𝑚𝑎𝑥= Maximum distance where the 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑟 can have effects 𝐷0, = Total level of 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 at the cell x due to the 𝑗𝑡ℎ LULC 𝑤 𝑟 = 𝑊𝑒𝑖𝑔ℎ𝑡 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑟 ry= 𝑇ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑟 𝑜𝑟𝑖𝑔𝑖𝑛𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑖𝑛 𝑦 𝛽0 = 𝐴𝑐𝑐𝑒𝑠𝑠𝑖𝑏𝑖𝑙𝑖𝑡𝑦 𝑜𝑓 𝑡ℎ𝑒 𝑐𝑒𝑙𝑙 𝑥𝑡ℎ 𝑆,- = Sensitivity of 𝑗𝑡ℎ LULC at 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 𝑟
  108. 108. Habitat Quality Map 𝑸 𝒙𝒋 = 𝑯𝒋 𝟏 − 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 𝒛 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 𝒛 + 𝒌 𝒛 Results of "Habitat Quality" model 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 = † 𝒓F𝟏 𝑹 † 𝒋F𝟏 𝒀 𝒓 𝒘 𝒓 ∑ 𝒓F𝟏 𝑹 𝒘 𝒓 𝒓 𝒚 𝒊 𝒓𝒙𝒚 𝜷 𝒙 𝑺𝒋𝒓 Habitat Degradation Map (IV) (III) 𝑄0, = Habitat Quality at the cell x belonging to 𝑗𝑡ℎ LULC 𝐷0, = Total level of 𝑡ℎ𝑟𝑒𝑎𝑡 at the cell x due to the 𝑗𝑡ℎ LULC 𝐻, = Habitat suitability of 𝑗𝑡ℎ LULC (IV) 𝑆𝑐𝑎𝑙𝑒 𝑝𝑎𝑟𝑎𝑚𝑒𝑡𝑒𝑟s z = 2,5 K= 5 → 𝟏 − 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 𝒛 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 𝒛 “ 𝒌 𝒛 = 0,5 when 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 = 5 K= 3 → 𝟏 − 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 𝒛 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 𝒛 “ 𝒌 𝒛 = 0,5 when 𝑫 𝒙𝒋 = 3
  109. 109. HABITAT QUALITY MAP 2013
  110. 110. HABITAT QUALITY MAP 2018
  111. 111. Results of "Habitat Quality" model Habitat Quality Map - 2013 Habitat Quality Map - 2018
  112. 112. HABITAT DEGRADATION MAP 2013
  113. 113. HABITAT DEGRADATION MAP 2018
  114. 114. Results of "Habitat Quality" model Habitat Degradation Map - 2013 Habitat Degradation Map - 2018
  115. 115. 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 BASSA MODERATA ELEVATA MOLTO ELEVATA Superficie (ha) Qualità Habitat Quality (2013-2018) 2018 2013 Legenda QUALITÁ SUPERFICIE (𝑘𝑚>) Legenda 2013 2018 In the output map the areas characterized by low quality values increased from 2013 to 2018. Definition of Habitat Quality classes Discussion of “Habitat Quality" model results
  116. 116. HABITAT QUALITY DIFFERENCE 2013-2018
  117. 117. Definition of Habitat Degradation classes Discussion of “Habitat Degradation " model results DEGRADO SUPERFICIE (𝑘𝑚>) In the output map the areas characterized by moderate and very high degradation values increased from 2013 to 2018.
  118. 118. DIFFERENZA HABITAT DEGRADATION 2013-2018
  119. 119. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  120. 120. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  121. 121. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  122. 122. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  123. 123. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  124. 124. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  125. 125. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  126. 126. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  127. 127. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pair-wise matrixes for each scenario and resulting weights summaring table biodiversity carbon storage agricultural vocation Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  128. 128. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  129. 129. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante Pilogallo, A., Saganeiti, Pontradolfi P. Scorza F., Murgante B., Comparing territorial performances of Renewable Energy Sources' plants with integrated Ecosystem Services losses assessment: Melfi municipality sample area in Basilicata region (Italy). Sustainable Cities and Society (Accepted)
  130. 130. The evolution of spatial analysis and modeling in decision processes - Beniamino Murgante
  131. 131. Beniamino Murgante School of Engineering, University of Basilicata beniamino.murgante@unibas.it http://oldwww.unibas.it/utenti/murgante/Benny.html https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Beniamino_Murgante Thank you for your attention

Keynote at SAGEO 2019 conference. Spatial Analysis and Geomatics at Clermont-Ferrand

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