Early in June, we had noted in our blog post that India's weather office, India Meteorological Department (IMD), had said monsoon rainfall is expected to be above normal with an average 106% of LPA (Long Period Average). This indicated 2016 could turn out to be a year of surplus rainfall followed by two years of drought.

1. Season/Trade Crop Segment Indian Crop size in World % Rank
Crop
Prospects
Implications on Crops
Kharif
Summer Crops
(Rain Fed)
Grains Cereals
Corn 3% 7
Corn acreage for 2016/17 is close to 8.2 million hectares and is expected to be
large crop season. At present, corn crop is at cob formation. Overall, nearly 75
percent Indian crop is in good condition.
Pulses 50-60% 1
Indian Pulses acreage has increased by 35 percent in 2016 compared to previous
year because of prevailing high prices and anticipated good monsoon. However,
production is expected to be around 22 million metric tons against the
consumption of 24 million tons.
Spices
Black Pepper 18% 2
Scanty shower in parts of south India, mainly Kerala, during September is
expected to reduce the black pepper output. Production will be less than 55,000
tons this harvest.
Chili 35% 2
Chilli acreage increased by 25-30 percent this year because of the increase in
price in 2015. China, which is one of the leading importers of chilies from India,
increased domestic production of Chilli. This will lead to sluggish export
demand.
Turmeric 72% 1
Better rainfall in key producing regions along with the increase in acreage is
likely to impact the crop prospects positively.
Cardamom 32% 2
Lack of rainfall in Kerala during August and September is expected to reduce the
cardamom production nearly by 50 percent from last year estimates.
Softs
Sugar 19% 2
Production in India is expected to decrease significantly due to last year’s
drought.
Cotton 21% 2
Cotton acreage will decrease in 2016/17 due to drought and severe crop damage
during 2015/16, however, increase in yield by 9% will result in moderate
production this season.
Others
Guar Seed 80% 1
Guar seed acreage in India dropped to 20 - 25 lakh hectares from 48 lakh
hectares, as farmers shifted to more profitable crops due to good monsoon this
year.
Mentha Oil 82% 1
Mentha oil is expected to witness higher production this year due to better
monsoon. Drop in demand from China and Japan will decrease the Mentha oil
price in India.
Rabi
Winter Crops
(Irrigated)
Grains
Wheat 12% 3
2016 Wheat production is expected to reduce to 722 million metric tons against
736 million metric tons previous year. However, 2016 Rabi crop harvest in June
was good due to high yield.
Rice 21% 2 Normal monsoon in India has boosted the outlook for 2016/17 season.
Spices Chili 9% 2 Normal production can be witnessed due to favorable conditions