1. The Application of Game Theory to Strategic Issues …to achieve your optimal outcome.

2. Your Challenge Today… “More analysis” “More action” Strategic Decision Making Merge, Acquire, Invest, Divest, Partner, Labor Negotiation, Gov’t Affairs, IP Protection and Defense, Litigation, … Endless debate Increasing Business Complexity and Market Disruption Urgency Board of Directors Scrutiny

3. The Priiva Process…A Different Approach MODEL INPUTS MODEL OUTPUTS Who is involved? Players Where can we get to ? Predicted outcomes Game Theory What can they do ? Options How do we get there ? Tactics What do they want ? Preferences What did we learn ? Insights

4. A Highly Efficient Process Executive time commitment 2 four hour sessions Stage 3 Stage 1 Stage 2 Stage 4 Implement Identify player preferences Identify players And options Execute game theory models Which players can affect the outcome and what strategic actions are under their control ? What are the individual player’s preferences for the actions of all players ? Implement strategy and tactics to achieve desired outcomes Predict outcomes from analysis of millions of potential outcomes Total Project Time: 2 – 4 weeks

5. Game Theory is a well-founded methodology 2000’s Nobel Prize – Aumann&Schelling; Hurwicz et al. 1990’s Nobel Prize – John Nash 1980’s Start of Business Applications 1970’s Cold War Applications Prisoners’ Dilemma 1960’s 1950’s Development of 2 x 2 Games 1940’s Seminal work – von Neumann & Morgenstern

6. Example Natural Outcome Niche Player Wants to buy Struggling Incumbent but fearful of others consolidating The Natural Outcome is stable but fragile Struggling Incumbent Wants to create auction but no bidders Technology Player Wants to buy NichePlayer but fearful of DivMultiNat buying Struggling Incumbent DivMultiNat Continues with minimal investment Customer Slowly develops internal tools, standardizes on platform and encourages New Entrants New Entrant Aggressively enters market with SaaS and Open Source In this example, the Natural Outcome, identifies a fragile “Standoff” situation that requires a plan that can be immediately actioned when the standoff breaks.

8. Analyzes model to develop efficient methods to realize optimal outcomes Self- importance Option Agreement Option significance Change Seeking

9. Preference Tree Example (This is a deep dive. See Speaker Notes for explanation) Preferences Players More important Options + denotes Desire - denotes Fear IF denotes Conditional Less important or indifferent

10. Priiva Success References

11. Benefits of Game Theory and the Priiva Process Strategic Action Plan Predictable Outcomes Deep Insights Confident Board of Directors Aligned Executive Team Efficient Process

12. About Priiva A boutique strategy consulting firm. Specialized in applying game theory methodology to optimize the outcome of strategic business decisions. Hundreds of business cases analyzed with 85% prediction accuracy. Fixed price engagement lasting the life of the business issue. Focused on public companies in Ohio and Florida. Bill Forquer Principal Priiva Consulting www.priiva.com/Bill.html