-Overall Indian solar capacity addition target vs. current progress
-Current competitive landscape in solar power generation in India
-Typical timeline / milestones for ground-mounted solar project implementation (incl. activity-wise phasing)
-Usual EPC supply chain for ground-mounted solar project
-Key EPC / implementation risks and other key challenges faced by solar developers in India
-Typical risk mitigation measures and key success factors
Scanning the Internet for External Cloud Exposures via SSL Certs
India's Growing Solar Power Capacity
1. Overview of Solar Power
Generation in India
5,137.91 MW
7,277.93 MW
2,948.37 MW
2,258.46 MW
1,801.8 MW
3,915.88 MW
3,610.02 MW
3,620.75 MW
1,095.1 MW
947.1 MW
On Grid Installed Solar Capacity
2. Catalyst for development of renewable energy (RE) sector
India to improve the emissions intensity of its GDP by 33% to 35% by
2030 below 2005 level
Increase the share of non-fossil fuels-based electricity to 40% by
2030
Nationally Determined
Contributions (NDC)
Electricity Act 2003 notified the State Electricity Regulatory
Commissions (SERCs) to promote renewable energy by setting
yearly RPO targets for obligated entities (utilities and consumers)
Renewable
Purchase Obligation
(RPO)
Targets 100 GW of solar capacity
Mandates the SERCs to revise the solar RPO target to 8%
National Tariff
Policy 2016
Announcement of Jawaharlal Nehru National Solar Mission
Scheme on Energy Efficient Solar / Green Buildings and Solar cities
Establishment of International Solar Alliance
A trans-national electricity grid supplying solar power across the globe
- One Sun, One World, One Grid
Major Government
Initiatives
Capital infusion of INR 1,000 Cr to Solar Energy Corporation of India
and INR 1,500 Cr to Indian Renewable Energy Development Agency
Duties on solar inverters and Solar lanterns have been increased from
5% to 20%, and 5% to 15% respectively, thus encouraging domestic
manufacturing
Union Budget 2021
Source: MNRE, SECI, GoI websites
3. Targeted Solar capacity addition
United
States
China
Mainland
Australia
India
Installed solar PV capacity in India has skyrocketed in the past
few years, reaching more than 35 GW recently
India gained 4th position in Renewable Energy Country
Attractiveness Index (RECAI) in 2020 from 7th position in 2019
Source: MNRE, GoI
RECAI, EY
2022 2030
60 GW – Ground
Mounted Solar PV
40 GW – Rooftop
Solar PV
300 GW – Ground
Mounted +
Rooftop Solar PV
Economic attractiveness of Solar system has
led to record low tariff bids, with India striving to
reach its 450 GW target of installed renewables
by 2030.
4. Current progress in Solar Installations in India
Street Lighting
6,59,218 Nos
AJAY scheme
Lanterns / Lamp
58,23,800 Nos
UJALA Scheme
Grid connected
35 GW
Solar Parks and Ultra Mega Solar Power
Projects Scheme
Stand Alone
212 MW
Saubhagya Scheme
Scale-Up Of Access To Clean Energy
Scheme
Rooftop
5,953 MW
Grid Connected Solar Rooftop Programme
Solar Pumps
2,37,120 Nos
PM KUSUM Scheme
Source: MNRE, GoI As on Mar 2020
Home lighting System
17,15,214 Nos
Microcredit scheme
5. Indian Solar sector at a glance
- 10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000
2016
2017
2018
2019
Solar Installed capacity (MW)
On-grid Off-grid Concentrated
27,355
35,060
- 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000
2015
2016
2017
2018
Solar Electricity Generation (GWh)
On-grid Off-grid Concentrated
5,979
10,182
31,067
- 12.2%
- 24.5%
- 61.5%
- 1.8%
Thermal
Large Hydro
Renewable
Nuclear
- 29.3%
- 27.3%
- 35.4%
- 8.0%
Small Hydro
Wind
Solar
Bio Energy
India’s focus on RE stems from the fact that the country’s
energy import bill of around USD 150 billion is expected to
reach USD 300 billion by 20301
India’s solar power generation potential of 748 GW will
utilize only 3% of the total waste land available2
The current installed capacity of solar power of 35 GW, is
less than 5% of the estimated potential
9,879
18,152
18,128
Source: IRENA stats tool
1 GoI websites
2 NISE
Energy Mix (%) 2020
6. Competitive landscape in solar power generation
7.90
6.50
5.20
3.25
2.44 2.48
2.00
5.00 5.00
5.25
3.46
2.43
2.80 2.77
4.90
4.10 4.15 4.27 4.40 4.24
3.36
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
5.00
6.00
7.00
8.00
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20
INR/kWh
Renewable energy tariff achieving grid parity
Solar Wind Thermal (Coal)
Steep decline in solar tariff
from INR 15/kWh in 2010
Solar tariff
matching wind
Fall in wind tariffs
after bidding
introduced for wind
Solar and wind
tariff achieve grid
parity
Source: GoI websites
▪ The renewable energy sector in India was operated under the Feed-in-Tariff regime till 2010. Till that time, the
renewable energy capacity was mostly dominated by wind energy (accounting for more than 70% market share)
▪ The tariffs for solar energy have declined by around 86% since 2010. This steep drop has been facilitated by a
combination of factors (Annexure 1) like:
• Decline in photovoltaic (PV) module cost
• Increase in scale of projects
• Innovative project development models like solar parks developed by the Government agencies
• Access to cheaper financing, and decline in return on equity expectation due to reduced risks, etc.
Imposition of safeguard duty
on PV modules in 2018
have trended upward the
tariff
7. Typical EPC supply chain for 50-100 MW solar project
Material delivery on site
Sl. No. Material details Tentative dispatch timeline
1 Module Mounting Structure 3 – 4 Weeks
2 PV Modules 5 – 8 Weeks
3 Solar Inverter 6 – 8 Weeks
4
Balance of Materials
• Cables
• HT & LT Panels
• Transformers
• String combiner box
• SCADA, etc.
6 – 12 Weeks
Source: Industry practice and site experience
8. Key implementation risks faced by solar project developers
Construction Risks
Country and Macro-economic risk; and Political risk
Operation & Maintenance Risks
Contractual Risks
■ Off-Taker Risks
■ Legal Risks
■ Commercial general liability
■ Land Risk (including availability, permissibility and environmental and social
aspects)
■ Procurement Risks
■ Legal Risks (Regulation, Arbitration and judicial)
■ Grid Risks (Connection)
■ Regulatory Risk
■ Warranty Coverages
■ Loss in generation
■ Professional Design Risks
■ Risk of breach of contract,
■ Expropriation, transfer restriction, currency inconvertibility, war and civil
disturbance.
Market Risk
■ Currency risk and interest rate risk
Typical Solar
Projects Risks
Source: GCube Insurance Services
9. Typical risk mitigation measures and key success
factors
3
Insurance consortium to be formed with lead insurers, co-insurers and re-insurers to provide a
comprehensive viable insurance policy and risk mitigation assurance instruments(examples
IDA, MIGA, IFC, IBRD, etc.)
2
Shall conduct tripartite meeting with concerned authorities and lead insurer of the
member country to prepare country specific detailed action plan
Shall conduct detailed study to assess the market need and existing
gaps in addressing risks associated with solar projects
1
Proper demand
assessment
Confirmed and agreed
action plan
Risk free
implementation and
operation
Source: World Bank, IRENA
10. Project timeline for 50-100 MW solar project
20 Days
Kick-off Meeting I Inception Report
65 Days
Site data collection and analysis Ɩ Evaluation of the technical options for solar plants
Detailed Feasibility Report
30 Days
Assessment of various business models
Development business model and project structure
45 Days
Preparation & Finalizing termsheets for PPA & land lease agreement & RFP/RFQ document
Detailed Drafting of RFP, RFQ & PPA & land lease agreement
30 Days
Development and circulation of flyers for invitation letter to investors
Preparation & circulations of Project Information Memorandum
10 Days
Signing of PPA and Implementation Agreement
Project Inception
Preparation of Detailed
Feasibility Report
Development of term sheets / Bid
documents
Project Information Memorandum
/ Investor Outreach
Bid Process Management
Financial Closure
68 Days
Publish the Bid documents Ɩ Pre bid meeting Ɩ Amendments to the box documents
Submission and Evaluation of Bids Ɩ Recommendation and feedback on the bid process
Selection of developer(s) Ɩ Award of project (issuance of LOE)
Commissioning of the project
Development of Project
Implementation Structure
270 Days
The developer is expected to complete the project as per agreed timeline Source: Industry practice
12. Annexure 1
Source: CEEW
The breakdown of the tariff contains a modelling discrepancy of INR 0.05/kWh.
▪ Financing costs are the largest components of the tariff followed by the module costs and
Solar park charges
Breakdown of Solar Reverse Bidding Tariff