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Rethink 2013 bkitts_v3_outgoing

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Rethink 2013 bkitts_v3_outgoing

  1. 1. Key Issue ForumAd Effectiveness andMedia Mix ModelingModerator:Executive Vice President,Online, Social and MobileMedia Marketing, ARFPeter Orban
  2. 2. HOW SET TOP BOX DATA AND DATA MINING TECHNIQUES AREREVOLUTIONIZING TVTectonic Shifts in TV AdvertisingBrendan KittsChief ScientistPrecisionDemandbkitts@precisiondemand.com
  3. 3. Who Knows?
  4. 4. • Drunk Nate Silver looking at strangersfrom across his doctors waiting room,then worriedly scribbling in his notebook
  5. 5. http://www.isnatesilverawitch.com/
  6. 6. TV is deadThe Telegraph, 2007, "TV Is Dying Says Google Expert"One of the founding fathers of the internet has predicted the end of traditional television....Vint Cerf,who helped to build the internet... said...that viewers would soon be downloading most of theirfavourite programmes onto their computers.
  7. 7. Video – MobileSource: Nielsen Three Screen Report 2009http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ThreeScreenReport_US_2Q09REV.pdf
  8. 8. Video – InternetSource: Nielsen Three Screen Report 2009http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ThreeScreenReport_US_2Q09REV.pdf
  9. 9. Video – Time ShiftedSource: Nielsen Three Screen Report 2009http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ThreeScreenReport_US_2Q09REV.pdf
  10. 10. Video – Traditional TVSource: Nielsen Three Screen Report 2009http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ThreeScreenReport_US_2Q09REV.pdf
  11. 11. Traditional TV still dominates every age groupSource: Nielsen Three Screen Report 2009http://blog.nielsen.com/nielsenwire/wp-content/uploads/2009/09/ThreeScreenReport_US_2Q09REV.pdf
  12. 12. Multi-screen & Multi-channel TV programmingWHERE YOU WANT IT WHEN YOU WANT IT
  13. 13. The TV LandscapeFAR FROM BEING COWED BY NEW MEDIA, TV IS COLONIZING IT
  14. 14. Although the popularity of some programsremains a scientific mystery....
  15. 15. Only two problems with TV
  16. 16. The most successful consumer productpenetration you’ve never heard of! ...but it gets better...STBevolutionSet Top Box – 91% of US Households7075808590951996 2001 2006 2011% HHs w Set Top Box
  17. 17. STBs with return path - 30% of US HHsSource: platform status report IAB, Platform Status Report: Interactive Television Advertising, AN INTERACTIVE TELEVISIONADVERTISING OVERVIEW, http://www.iab.net/media/file/ITV_Platform_Status_Report.pdf Source: SNL Kagan VOD & ITV Investor Report 1/20096%16%23%30%0%5%10%15%20%25%30%35%2009 2010 2011 2012% HHs w True2Way% w True2way
  18. 18. Revolution Now Taking PlaceViewers1000 times more viewersTargetingProbability of Buyer
  19. 19. Maximize Pr(Buyer)Media heatmap
  20. 20. TARGETING DEMO
  21. 21. TV Targeting Algorithms
  22. 22. How can you target on TV?Three Classes of Algorithm✦Direct Buyer Targeting✦HighDim Demographic targeting✦Phone RPI
  23. 23. Buyer TargetingP(Buyer|Program=P ^Station=S ^ Day=D ^Hour=H ^ Geo=G ^Demo1=D1 ^Demo2=D2 ^ ...Buyer ratings
  24. 24. High-Dim Demographic matchHD Demo match00.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09AcredCouplesApplePieFamiliesBlueCollarBunchCareerBuildingCareerCenteredSinglesCartoonsandCarpoolsChildrenFirstCityMixersClubsandCausesCollegiateCrowdCommunitySinglesCorporateCloutCountryComfortCountrySingleCountryWaysDowntownBoomerCouplesDynamicDuosEarlyParentsEstablishedEliteFamilyMattersFarmlandFamiliesFirstDigsFirstMortgageFullSteamingFunandGamesHardChargersHomeCookingHumbleHomesKidsandCloutKidsandRentLeveragedLifestylesLowRentDigsMarriedSophisticatesMetroParentsMidAmericanaModestWagesMortgageWoesOntheEdgeOutwardBoundPennyPinchersPlatinumOldiesRaisinGrandKidsRollingStonesRuralAntiquesRuralParentsRuralRoversSavvySinglesSedentariansShootingStarsSingleCityStruggleSittingPrettySkyboxesandSuburbansSoccerandSUVsSolidSingleParentsSoloandStableSpousesandHousesStillLandlordedStillTruckinSuburbanSeniorsSummitEstatesTheGreatOutdoorsTheGreatestGenerationThriftyEldersTimelessEldersTotsandToysTrucksandTrailersUrbanScrambleUrbanTenantsWorkandCausesYoungWorkbootsSeries100.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09AcredCouplesApplePieFamiliesBlueCollarBunchCareerBuildingCareerCenteredSinglesCartoonsandCarpoolsChildrenFirstCityMixersClubsandCausesCollegiateCrowdCommunitySinglesCorporateCloutCountryComfortCountrySingleCountryWaysDowntownBoomerCouplesDynamicDuosEarlyParentsEstablishedEliteFamilyMattersFarmlandFamiliesFirstDigsFirstMortgageFullSteamingFunandGamesHardChargersHomeCookingHumbleHomesKidsandCloutKidsandRentLeveragedLifestylesLowRentDigsMarriedSophisticatesMetroParentsMidAmericanaModestWagesMortgageWoesOntheEdgeOutwardBoundPennyPinchersPlatinumOldiesRaisinGrandKidsRollingStonesRuralAntiquesRuralParentsRuralRoversSavvySinglesSedentariansShootingStarsSingleCityStruggleSittingPrettySkyboxesandSuburbansSoccerandSUVsSolidSingleParentsSoloandStableSpousesandHousesStillLandlordedStillTruckinSuburbanSeniorsSummitEstatesTheGreatOutdoorsTheGreatestGenerationThriftyEldersTimelessEldersTotsandToysTrucksandTrailersUrbanScrambleUrbanTenantsWorkandCausesYoungWorkbootsSeries100.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09AcredCouplesApplePieFamiliesBlueCollarBunchCareerBuildingCareerCenteredSinglesCartoonsandCarpoolsChildrenFirstCityMixersClubsandCausesCollegiateCrowdCommunitySinglesCorporateCloutCountryComfortCountrySingleCountryWaysDowntownBoomerCouplesDynamicDuosEarlyParentsEstablishedEliteFamilyMattersFarmlandFamiliesFirstDigsFirstMortgageFullSteamingFunandGamesHardChargersHomeCookingHumbleHomesKidsandCloutKidsandRentLeveragedLifestylesLowRentDigsMarriedSophisticatesMetroParentsMidAmericanaModestWagesMortgageWoesOntheEdgeOutwardBoundPennyPinchersPlatinumOldiesRaisinGrandKidsRollingStonesRuralAntiquesRuralParentsRuralRoversSavvySinglesSedentariansShootingStarsSingleCityStruggleSittingPrettySkyboxesandSuburbansSoccerandSUVsSolidSingleParentsSoloandStableSpousesandHousesStillLandlordedStillTruckinSuburbanSeniorsSummitEstatesTheGreatOutdoorsTheGreatestGenerationThriftyEldersTimelessEldersTotsandToysTrucksandTrailersUrbanScrambleUrbanTenantsWorkandCausesYoungWorkbootsSeries100.010.020.030.040.050.060.070.080.09AcredCouplesApplePieFamiliesBlueCollarBunchCareerBuildingCareerCenteredSinglesCartoonsandCarpoolsChildrenFirstCityMixersClubsandCausesCollegiateCrowdCommunitySinglesCorporateCloutCountryComfortCountrySingleCountryWaysDowntownBoomerCouplesDynamicDuosEarlyParentsEstablishedEliteFamilyMattersFarmlandFamiliesFirstDigsFirstMortgageFullSteamingFunandGamesHardChargersHomeCookingHumbleHomesKidsandCloutKidsandRentLeveragedLifestylesLowRentDigsMarriedSophisticatesMetroParentsMidAmericanaModestWagesMortgageWoesOntheEdgeOutwardBoundPennyPinchersPlatinumOldiesRaisinGrandKidsRollingStonesRuralAntiquesRuralParentsRuralRoversSavvySinglesSedentariansShootingStarsSingleCityStruggleSittingPrettySkyboxesandSuburbansSoccerandSUVsSolidSingleParentsSoloandStableSpousesandHousesStillLandlordedStillTruckinSuburbanSeniorsSummitEstatesTheGreatOutdoorsTheGreatestGenerationThriftyEldersTimelessEldersTotsandToysTrucksandTrailersUrbanScrambleUrbanTenantsWorkandCausesYoungWorkbootsSeries1
  25. 25. DRTV RPIPhone-calls
  26. 26. Which is best?10110210310410510600.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82abilitecrpidemo
  27. 27. Which is best?Targeting Buyers✦All are predictors ofPr(Buyer)10110210310410510600.20.40.60.811.21.41.61.82abilitecrpidemoHigh DimdemographicsPhone RPIDirect Buyer
  28. 28. Trained Targeting ModelDirect buyvars (STB)RPI (phonevars)HighDim vars(STB)Age-Gender-like vars
  29. 29. Results
  30. 30. Targeting Landscape: RPI vs targeting scorePhoneresponsesperimpressionPr(Buyer)
  31. 31. Targeting Lift0%20%40%60%80%100%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%%ofBuyers% of cases50% lift intop 20% ofmediaCampaign C0%20%40%60%80%100%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%%ofresponses% of Impressions0%20%40%60%80%100%0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%%ofresponses% of Impressions50% liftin top20% ofmedia40% liftin top20% ofmediaCampaign A Campaign B
  32. 32. Moneyball on TV
  33. 33. Case Study
  34. 34. Leading Online Music Provider
  35. 35. Optimized vs Previous
  36. 36. CPM$3.34$7.39$6.87$0.00$1.00$2.00$3.00$4.00$5.00$6.00$7.00$8.00PD media (3 weeksover Christmas 2011)Full period Christmas 2010 & Apr2011cpmcpm✦2.2x Higher CPM
  37. 37. t- ratio0.3000.198 0.1960.0000.0500.1000.1500.2000.2500.3000.350PD media (3 weeksover Christmas 2011)Full period Christmas 2010 &Apr 2011tratiotratio✦1.5x Higher t-ratio
  38. 38. tCPM$11.13$37.33$35.02$0.00$5.00$10.00$15.00$20.00$25.00$30.00$35.00$40.00PD media (3 weeksover Christmas 2011)Full period Christmas 2010 &Apr 2011tcpmtcpm✦3.3x Better tCPM
  39. 39. 9,04513,291-2,0004,0006,0008,00010,00012,00014,000MediaDec 2010 PD Dec 2011subscriberssubscribers
  40. 40. 3,551,0001,010,380-500,0001,000,0001,500,0002,000,0002,500,0003,000,0003,500,0004,000,000MediaDec 2010 PD Dec 2011costcost
  41. 41. TV The Future ImplicationsAND MAJOR SHIFTS
  42. 42. Outdoor Vehicle (manufacturer not shown)0%5%10%15%20%25% TNTHISTESPNDISCFOXNCSPKNGCMILSPDTVLSYFYVSESPN2CNBCUSAAMCHIMSNBCENNHLNG4IDGSNBBCAFSCTBSCBETAENCMDYCNNFXVH1NICKHGTVBRVOTLCENTNANMTVFOODOWNOXYGLIFMLBNEquinoxMedia Plan ComparisonPD Buy Past
  43. 43. What Will Happen as TV ads Become more Relevant?✦Higher advertising revenue per display✦Higher spot prices✦Higher consumer satisfaction✦Fewer ads
  44. 44. HOW SET TOP BOX DATA AND DATA MINING TECHNIQUES AREREVOLUTIONIZING TVTV Ad Targeting using Set TopBoxesBrendan KittsChief ScientistPrecisionDemandbkitts@precisiondemand.com

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