Looks at evangelistic outreach from two different philosophies, and then suggests that a mixed methodology minimizes the negative aspects of each. The model similar to what is used in CPM (Church Planting Movement) optimizes two extremes... high end seed sowing, but linear, and low volume seed sowing with good discipleship.

1. Evangelism Mathematics
By Robert H. Munson
Philippine Baptist Theological Seminary

2. A Story of Two Evangelists:
Jun and Paulo

3. Jun's Strategy

Jun decided to work alone doing
mass evangelism in different
communities. He would share the
gospel and invite people to come
forward and pray to receive Christ.

Then he moves to a new location,
doing no follow-up with them.

He is very successful with this
strategy, averaging approximately
1000 confessions of faith per day,
365 days a year.

4. Paulo's Strategy

Paulo is not nearly as active as
Jun. He shares the gospel with
very few. He leads two people to
Christ per year.

During the year, he spends all of
his time and energy in
discipling/mentoring them.

After the year is up, Paulo will
find two new people to lead to
Christ and work with them…
while his disciples do the same.

5. Comparison

Jun leads 1000 people to Christ per day, or
365,000 per year, while Paulo only leads 2
per year.

Jun is very busy, while Paulo, truthfully
seems rather lazy.

Paulo puts most of his effort into discipling
his converts so they have the training and
motivation to do as he does. Jun does no
discipleship or follow-up.

6. Math Time

Jun's numbers are pretty simple. Since he
reaches 1,000 people per day, he reaches
365,000 per year.

By year two he has reached 730,000, and
1,095,000 after 3 years.

Truly few if any can make such a claim.

However, few if any of his converts grow in
their faith since no discipleship was done
and no training to do as Jun does.

7. Math Time

Paulo has led only 2 to Christ after one
year.

After the 2nd
year, he is doing a bit better.
He now has 2 from the first year and 2 from
the 2nd
year, plus the 2 from the first year
have now led 4 people to Christ and
discipled them.

That is 2+2+4=8

For the 3rd
year, it is 8+2+16=26

8. More Math
After Year... Jun Paulo
1 365,000 2
2 730,000 8
3 1,095,000 26
4 1,460,000 80

9. More Math
After Year... Jun Paulo
1 365,000 2
2 730,000 8
3 1,095,000 26
4 1,460,000 80

10. More Math
After Year... Jun Paulo
5 1,825,000 242
6 2,190,000 728
7 2,555,000 2,186
8 2,920,000 6,560

11. More Math
After Year... Jun Paulo
9 3,285,000 19,682
10 3,650,000 59,048
11 4,015,000 177,146
12 4,380,000 531,440

12. More Math
After Year... Jun Paulo
13 4,745,000 1,594,322
14 5,110,000 4,782,968
15 5,475,000 14,348,908
16 5,840,000 43,046,720

13. So...

If both Jun and Paulo followed their own
strategies for 16 years, Paulo would
actually be about 7 times more effective
than Jun.

Although Paulo appeared to be the lazy
one, he actually would be far more
effective over time.

14. But What About Objections?

How realistic is this? Who is to say that
Paulo successfully ends the year with
discipled believers who will do exactly what
he has been doing?

And who is to say that Jun will have ZERO
converts who would become reproducing
Christians?

15. Ultimately, that is not the point

#1. We are using numbers based on
proposed strategies. One strategy
intentionally develops a team of
continuously reproducing Christians. The
other strategy is to have an evangelism
strategy that is dependent on the tireless
work of one person.

The actual results may be different, but the
anticipated trends would be the same.

16. Ultimately, that is not the point

#2. More importantly, Paulo's strategy creates
ministerial independence, while Jun's strategy
creates ministerial dependence.

Suppose that both Jun and Paulo stopped
ministering after 5 years (maybe they died, or
maybe they moved). The anticipated new
converts in the 6th
year would be 0 for Jun. For
Paulo, the anticipated number would be
160,598. That is the 160,600-2 (missing would
be the 2 that Paulo would have been
discipling that year.

17. But There is a Better Way

The CPM model seeks to combine the
strengths of the both methods. (CPM is
“Church Planting Movement”) The basic
principles of CPM can be used for other
forms of outreach than simply
churchplanting.)

Rapid “seed sowing” is used to get things
started fast, as well as to find those who
are willing and able to be trained to join the
task.

18. What Does it Look Like?

A. Rapid up-front seed sowing.

B. Filtering/consolidation (levels of commitment)

C. Develop core group of committed disciples

D. Expand exponentially from disciples repeating the
process.

19. Why is it better than either the
methodologies of Jun and Paulo?

It has the intentional discipleship that leads
to exponential outreach, unlike Jun.

It has the rapid seed sowing and filtering
that increases the likelihood of finding solid
disciples committed to ministry.

20. Lessons

Strategies such as CPM, utilizing discipled
laypersons, are likely to be more successful than
classic churchplanting strategies that are
dependent on professional experts… because
one is exponential, while the other is linear.

Evangelism and Discipleship that creates new
iterations of Evangelism and Discipleship is
critical to this exponential growth.

Methods that move ministerial experts from vital
to (relatively) unnecessary, are far more
sustainable than ones where these experts are
doing all of the work.