This is the outcome of what a student learns in the Mastercourse in Equity Research & Valuation that is organized by the School of Market Studies.
After two months of intense training, we have a 4-month internship. During the first month of internship Varsha Bezzam, a student made this absolutely detailed presentation on HUL.
This include
leadership analysis,
industry study
MOATS for HUL
Business outlook & strategy
Financial modeling
Equity Valuation using price earning method and DCF valuation
Peer comparison
2. About Me
Varsha Bezzam
• BBA Graduate - Loyola College & IESEG School of
Management
• Currently based in Chennai
• Strong interest in financial services industry
• Loves debating, listening to music and playing
acoustic guitar
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
3. Company Snapshot
Indian subsidiary of
Unilever Plc
9 out of 10 households in
India use their products
More than 35 brands in 20
distinct categories
Employs 21,000 people
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
6. Leadership Team
Name Role
Sanjiv Mehta Chair and Managing Director
Srinivas Phatak Executive Director, Finance & IT and Chief Financial Officer
Pradeep Banerjee Executive Director, Supply Chain
Dev Bajpai Executive Director, Legal & Corporate Affairs and Company Secretary
Prabha Narasimhan Executive Director, Home Care
Priya Nair Executive Director, Beauty & Personal Care
Sudhir Sitapati Executive Director, Foods and Refreshment
Srinandan Sundaram Executive Director, Sales and Customer Development
B. P. Biddappa Executive Director, Human Resources
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
7. Leadership
Sanjiv Mehta
• Managing Director and President, South Asia
• Chartered Accountant, HBS alumnus
• Joined Unilever in 1992
• Holds 26 years of experience at Unilever
Srinivas Phatak
• Chief Financial Officer
• Chartered Accountant and Cost and Works Accountant
• Joined Unilever in 1999
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
13. Soaps Market Size:17B USD, Growth Rate: 7%
SOAPS Economical Affordable-1 Affordable-2 Premium-1 Premium-2
Super-
Premium1
Super-
Premium2
HUL Lifebuoy Lever Ayush Hamam Liril Lux, Pears Dove
Beiersdorf Nivea
Cholayil Medimix
Godrej Godrej No. 1 Cinthol
Himalaya Himalaya
ITC Vivel Fiama Di Wills
Jyothy Laboratories Margo Neem
Khadi Natural Khadi
KSDL Mysore Sandal
Patanjali Patanjali
Reckitt Benckiser Dettol
RSPL Limited Venus
Sri Sri Tattva Sri Sri Tattva
Wipro Chandrika Santoor
Yardley London YardleyStudent Presentation, School of Market Studies
14. Hair Care Market Size:2.8B USD -> 4.89B USD by 2025, CAGR for period 6.8%
SHAMPOO &
CONDITIONER Economical Affordable-1 Affordable-2 Premium-1 Premium-2
Super-
Premium1
Super-
Premium2
HUL Clinic Plus Sunsilk Lever Ayush Dove Tresemme Indulekha, Clear
Love Beauty
and Planet,
TONI&GUY,
TIGI
Biotique
Biotique
Shampoo
BuyWOW WOW
Cavinkare Nyle Naturals Chik Meera
Charak Pharma Moha Herbals
Dabur Vatika
Henkel Schwarzkopf
Johnson & Johnson
Johnson's Baby
Shampoo
Khadi Natural Khadi
P&G Pantene
Patanjali Patanjali
Shahnaz Husain
Shahnaz
Husain
Raymond Group
Park Avenue
Beer Shampoo
15. •
Cosmetics Market Size:6.5B USD -> 20B USD by 2025, CAGR for period 6%
COSMETICS Economical Affordable-1 Affordable-2 Premium-1 Premium-2
Super-
Premium1
Super-
Premium2
HUL Elle 18 Lakmé
Biotique Advanced
Ayurveda Biotique
Chambor Chambor
Cool Cosmetics Dmex
Estée Lauder
M.A.C., Bobbi
Brown
House of Makeup
House of
Makeup
Insight Cosmetics Insight
L'Oreal Maybelline L'Oreal, NYX
Lotus Herbals Lotus
MacAndrews&Forbes Revlon
Miss Claire Cosmetics Miss Claire
Modi Enterprises Colorbar
Natura and Co. Avon
Nykaa Nykaa
P&G Olay
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
16. Skin and Oral Care Market Size: 1B USD with 7.9% growth rate; 1.7BUSD with 8.1% growth rate
SKIN & ORAL CARE Economical Affordable-1 Affordable-2 Premium-1 Premium-2
Super-
Premium1
Super-
Premium2
HUL
Lifebuoy, Elle
18, Clinic Plus
Sunsilk,
Fair&Lovely Lever Ayush
Axe, Pantene,
Hamam, Lakmé,
Liril Vaseline Pond's
Beiersdorf Nivea
Galderma Cetaphil
P&G Olay
VLCC Healthcare VLCC
HUL
CloseUp,
Pepsodent Sensodyne
Colgate-Palmolive Colgate MaxFresh
Dabur Meswak Dabur Red
Himalaya Himalaya
Patanjali Dant Kanti
Vicco Group Vicco
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
17. Food and Beverages Market Size:5.8B USD -> 10B by 2024
FOOD & BEVERAGES Economical Affordable-1 Affordable-2 Premium-1 Premium-2 Super-Premium1
Super-
Premium2
HUL Bru Horlick's
Brooke Bond,
Knorr, Cornetto,
Kissan
Lipton, Boost,
Kwality Wall's Magnum
Aachi Foods Aachi
Abbott Lab Pediasure
Amul
Pro Weigh
Protein Malt
BambinoAgro Bambino
Batchelors Batchelor's Soup
Capital Foods Ching's
Danone Protinex
Girnar Royal Cup Tea
Gujarat Tea Processors and Packers Wagh Bakri
La Vieja Fabrica La Vieja Fabrica
Lion Dates Impex Private Ltd Lion
Mondelez International
Cadbury
Bournvita
Nestle Milo Nescafe
Organic India Organic India
SLN Coffee Levista
Society Society
Tata Agni Tea Tata Coffee Tata Gold Tetley
Zydus Wellness Glucon D Complan
18. Home Care Expected to grow at 10% every year,particularly Detergents
HOME CARE Economical Affordable-1 Affordable-2 Premium-1 Premium-2
Super-
Premium1
Super-
Premium2
HUL Active Wheel Rin, Domex Vim Sunlight
Comfort, Surf
Excel Cif Love&Care
Avance Avance
Godrej Ezee
P&G Tide Ariel
Reckitt Benckiser Harpic Lizol
S. C. Johnson & Son Mr. Muscle
Wipro Safewash Softtouch
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
19. Water Purifiers Market Size:300M USD -> 800M by 2024
WATER
PURIFIERS Economical
Affordable
-1
Affordable
-2 Premium-1 Premium-2
Super-
Premium1
Super-
Premium2
HUL PureIt
Blue Star
Limited BlueStar
Kent RO Systems Kent Ace
Livpure LivPure
Shapoorji Pallonji Group AquaSure
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
20. MOAT
• Household names
• Deeply penetrated in the market
• Products across different price
points
• Size and scale of distribution
network
• Aggressive cost saving program -
>10% cost savings from factories
on perimeter by eliminating non-
value-added activities
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
21. Four-Pillared Strategy
Winning Through
Continuous
Improvement
• Leveraging
technology to
streamline
operations and
generate cost
savings
Winning with People
• Creating an agible
mindset
• Attracting and
retaining the best
talent in the
industry
Winning in the
Marketplace
• Focus on demand
fulfilment
through
traditional and
new segments
• Winning in Many
Indias – different
focus for different
regions in India
Winning Brands and
Innovation
• Strengthen core
portfolio, re-
launches
• Trial packs and
sample packs to
drive penetration
• Develop strong
portfolio of
‘naturals’
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
23. Acquisitions
• Indulekha, an ayurvedic hair care brand
(Q32016) from Mosons Group
• Adityaa Milk’s ice cream and frozen deserts
business (2019) to provide access to
complementary markets in South India
• The acquisition of V Wash, an intimate hygiene
brand has been proposed.
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
24. HUL-GSK
Merger
• Brands owned by GSK CH India (Boost, Viva and Maltova) to be retained
by merged entity
• GSK CH India valued at Rs. 317Bn (equity value)
• Share Swap Ratio: 4.39 HUL shares for every 1 share held in GSK CH India
GSK Plc (including Group Companies) to own 5.7% of merged entity , GSK
exited
• HUL will distribute GSK’s Over-the-Counter and Oral Health products
under a consignment selling agreement (5years)
• F&R business expected to cross the INR 10,000 crore mark (over an
extended timeline)
Source: Hindustan Unilever
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
26. Key Investment
Highlights (FY14-17)
• Extreme volatility of crude and vegetable oil prices
• Lifebuoy became a 2000 crore brand in FY15
• New variants were launched in the Oral Care and
Personal Care segments, in line with their strategy of
premiumisation in the detergent segment and
production of natural variants of existing products.
• Many successful brands were re-launched
• Pond’s Exports Limited’s leather business was sold in
FY17.
• Modern Foods, a bread and bakery business was sold
to the Everstone Group in an aim to exit non-core
businesses in FY17
• The business was re-organized to new segments Home
Care, Beauty and Personal Care, Foods and
Refreshment
• Factories started delivering more than 10% cost savings
on perimeter by eliminating non-value added activities
Revenue 6.9% CAGR
EBITDA 11.1% CAGR
PAT 4.4% CAGR
FY14 FY15 FY16 FY17
Revenue 29,234 31,972 32,303 33,252
EBITDA 4,724 5,410 6,013 6,327
PAT 3,956 4,376 4,160 4,490
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
27. Key Investment
Highlights (FY18-19)
• Lever Ayush brand was launched for ayurvedic hair and
skin care solutions
• GST rates were reduced for some categories from 28% to
18% in Q3FY18
• Lakme became a 1000 crore brand during the year.
• Axe Ticket, a pocket-sized perfume showed high volume
growth
• Dove became India’s No. 1 hair care brand in FY19 and
Indulekha led the naturals segment
• Brylcreem, a grooming product range for men was co-
created with Amazon
• Growth was led by Active Wheel and Surf Excel in
detergents segment
Revenue 4.9% CAGR
EBITDA 17% CAGR
PAT 16.1% CAGR
FY18 FY19
Revenue 35,550 39,311
EBITDA 7,501 8,880
PAT 5,227 6,060
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
28. Key Investment
Highlights (FY19-20)
• Overall demand slowdown was observed led by a
steep decline in rural consumption
• Pride reductions were taken between 4 and 6% for
Lux and Lifebuoy
• Inflationary trends were seen in palm oil, food and
dairy
• Growth was observed in the ice cream segment due
to customer-focused innovations in the summer
• Pepsodent performed poorly in the Oral Care
segment
• Revenue from the Beauty and Personal Care
segment reduced by 2% from 2019 to 2020 due to a
delayed winter and lockdowns instituted to control
COVID-19
• The consumer confidence index reached a 6-year
low in Q3FY20.
• Love Beauty Planet, an environmentally conscious
and ethically sourced hair and skin care brand was
launched
FY20
Revenue 39,783
EBITDA 9,861
PAT 6,764
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
29. • 3.43 per cent YoY drop in consolidated net profit: Rs 1,520 crore (lower than estimates)
• COVID-19 had severe impact starting in mid-March
• Drop in margins, surge in demand of health and hygiene products
• Company expects to see uptick in hygiene, health and nutrition products
• Sanitizers being produced at 60x following crisis
Conference Call Update (Q42020)
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
32. Company has large number of SKUs
Present across every price point
Focuses on premiumisation in segments with high competition (eg: Detergent market)
Key Observations
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
40. Key Assumptions
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
Beauty and Personal Care
segment will be the worst
hit in the following
months
1
Demand for health-based
malt drinks is expected to
be sustained to a
reasonable extent despite
COVID-19
2
Note: Forecasting done
on a quarterly basis
because of the volatility in
global markets during the
current scenario
3
43. Gross Block 5,192 5,768 6,463 7,261 8,061 8,861
Right to Use 964 964 964
Total Gross Block 5,192 5,768 6,463 8,225 9,025 9,825
Less: Accumulated Depreciation 752 1,224 1,744 2,746 3,822 4,531
Accumulated Depreciation of Gross Block #N/A 2,294 2,917 3,567
Accumulated Depreciation of Right to Use 453 905 964
Less: Impairment of Assets 0 0 0 #N/A
Net Block 4,440 4,544 4,719 5,479 5,203 5,294
Lease Adjustment A/c 0 0 0 0 0 0
Capital Work in Progress 229 461 406 597 822 1,047
Intangible assets under development 0 0 0 0 0 0
Pre-operative Expenses pending 0 0 0 0 0 0
Assets in transit 0 0 0 0 0 0
Non Current Investments 6 2 2 2 2
Long Term Loans & Advances 708 907 1,217 241 400 400
Other Non Current Assets 2 2 2 146 146 146
Total Non-Current Assets 5,385 5,916 6,346 6,465 6,573 6,887
Currents Investments 3,814 2,871 2,714 1,253 1,075 1,147
Inventories 2,541 2,513 2,574 2,767 2,477 2,953
Sundry Debtors 1,085 1,310 1,816 1,149 1,429 1,703
Cash and Bank 1,828 3,485 3,757 5,113 4,300 4,588
Other Current Assets 348 460 298 601 400 400
Short Term Loans and Advances 535 1,005 751 1,438 1,500 1,500
Amt Due from firm (directors interested) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous Expenses not written off 0 0 0 0 0 0
Total Current Assets 10,151 11,644 11,910 12,321 11,181 12,291
TOTAL ASSETS 15,536 17,560 18,256 18,786 17,754 19,178
BALANCE SHEET FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
44. BALANCE SHEET FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Share Capital 216 216 216 216 216 216
Share Warrants & Outstandings 29 29 24 0 0 0
Total Reserves 6,499 7,036 7,627 8,013 8,188 8,424
Shareholder's Funds 6,744 7,281 7,867 8,229 8,404 8,640
Minority Interest 22 20 18 17 25 25
Secured Loans 0 0 0 0 0 0
Unsecured Loans 0 0 0 0 0 0
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities -170 -302 -373 -943 -940 -940
Other Long Term Liabilities 280 316 394 939 1,000 1,000
Long Term Trade Payables 0 0 0 0 0 0
Long Term Provisions 946 1,358 1,683 1,227 1,300 1,300
Total Non-Current Liabilities 1,056 1,372 1,704 1,223 1,360 1,360
Trade Payables 6,186 7,170 7,206 7,535 6,193 7,381
Other Current Liabilities 859 1,029 839 1,360 1,350 1,350
Short Term Borrowings 277 0 99 0 0 0
Short Term Provisions 392 688 523 422 422 422
Total Current Liabilities 7,714 8,887 8,667 9,317 7,965 9,153
TOTAL LIABILITIES 15,536 17,560 18,256 18,786 17,754 19,178
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
45. CASH FLOW FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Profit Before Tax 6,466 7,306 8,604 9,173 6,475 8,731
Adjustments 562 1,216 737 612 1,522 827
Add: Depreciation 432 520 565 1,002 1,076 709
Add: Interest Expenses / Finance Cost 35 26 33 118 118 118
Deferred Tax Assets / Liabilities -3 -132 -71 -570 3 0
Other Long Term Liabilities -230 36 78 545 61 0
Long Term Provisions 323 412 325 -456 73 0
Other Current Liabilities -53 170 -190 521 -10 0
Short Term Provisions 99 296 -165 -101 0 0
Pre-operative Expenses pending 0 0 0 0 0 0
Other Non Current Assets -1 0 0 -144 0 0
Other Current Assets -40 -112 162 -303 201 0
Amt Due from firm (directors interested) 0 0 0 0 0 0
Miscellaneous Expenses not written off 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in Working Capital 865 787 -531 803 -1,332 439
Trade Payables 501 984 36 329 -1,342 1,188
Long Term Trade Payables 0 0 0 0 0 0
Inventories 185 28 -61 -193 290 -475
Sundry Debtors 179 -225 -506 667 -280 -274
Cash Flow after Change in Working Capital 7,893 9,309 8,810 10,588 6,664 9,996
Tax Paid -1,976 -2,079 -2,544 -2,409 -1,683 -2,270
Cash Flow from Operations 5,917 7,230 6,266 8,179 4,981 7,726
Student Presentation, School of Market Studies
46. CASH FLOW FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Capital Expenditure -1,452 -878 -754 -798 -800 -800
Purchase of Fixed Assets -1,461 -895 -767 -850
Sale of Fixed Assets 9 17 13 52
Lease Adjustment A/c 0 0 0 0
Capital Work in Progress 179 -232 55 -191 -225 -225
Intangible assets under development 0 0 0 0 0 0
Assets in transit 0 0 0 0 0 0
Non Current Investments 26 4 0 0 0 2
Long Term Loans & Advances -126 -199 -310 976 -159 0
Currents Investments -1,254 943 157 1,461 178 -72
Short Term Loans and Advances -79 -470 254 -687 -62 0
Cash flow from Investing -2,706 -832 -598 761 -1,068 -1,095
Change in Equity Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Increase / (Decrease) in Preference Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from Preference Shares Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Redemption of Preference Shares Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from Shares Warrants 0 0 0 0 0 0
Proceeds from Issue of Equity Share Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Buy Back of Equity Shares Capital 0 0 0 0 0 0
Expenses on issue of shares 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in Long Term Borrowing 0 0 0 0 0 0
Change in Short Term Borrowing 100 -277 99 -99 0 0
Dividend -4,289 -4,692 -5,482 -6,257 -4,596 -6,205
Equity Dividend Paid -3,572 -3,911 -4,554 -5,196 -3,817 -5,153
Preference Dividend 0 0 0 0 0 0
Income tax on dividend paid -717 -781 -928 -1,061 -779 -1,052
Add: Interest Expenses / Finance Cost -35 -26 -33 -118 -118 -118
Cash Flow from Financing -4,224 -4,995 -5,416 -6,474 -4,714 -6,323
Net Cash Flow -1,013 1,403 252 2,466 -801 308
Opening Balance of Cash 3,009 1,828 3,485 3,756 5,113 4,300
Other Adjustments -168 254 19 -1,109 -12 -20
Closing Balance of Cash 1,828 3,485 3,756 5,113 4,300 4,588
47. RATIOS FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E
Total Debt to Equity 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Net Debt to Equity -0.8 -0.9 -0.8 -0.8 -0.6 -0.7
Net Debt to EBITDA -0.8 -0.8 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.6
Return on Equity 66.4% 71.6% 77.0% 82.1% 56.8% 74.5%
Return on Capital Employed 75.4% 80.5% 86.7% 93.6% 65.4% 86.3%
Return on Invested Capital 65.6% 140.9% 100.3% 83.7% 31.5% 44.3%
NOPLAT 4,244 4,958 5,690 6,377 4,554 6,220
FCFF 4,089 5,387 4,970 7,384 3,498 6,567
FCFE 9,430 11,724 11,319 13,663 8,786 12,215
Adjusted Basic EPS 20.7 24.1 28.0 31.3 22.1 29.8
Adj Book Value per Share 31.2 33.7 36.4 38.1 38.9 40.0
Enterprise Value 1,91,141 2,82,198 3,62,513 4,23,071 4,24,062 4,23,702
Market Capitalization 1,96,506 2,88,554 3,68,885 4,29,437 4,29,437 4,29,437
P/E 43.9 55.3 60.9 63.6 90.0 66.7
P/B 29.1 39.6 46.9 52.2 51.1 49.7
EV/EBITDA 30.2 37.6 40.8 42.9 56.7 45.2
48. Discounted Cash Flow
DCF Method FY21E FY22E FY23E FY24E FY25E Assumptions
NOPLAT & FCFF Calculation
Net Profit 4,771 6,441 7,993 9,525 11007 From Profit & Loss Account
Other Income 411 417 441 469 504 From Profit & Loss Account
Finance Cost 118 118 118 118 118 From Profit & Loss Account
Tax Rate 0 0 0 0 0 From Profit & Loss Account
NOPLAT 4,554 6,220 7,754 9,266 10721
Net Profit + Interest Cost * (1-Tax Rate)
- Other Income * (1-Tax Rate)
Depreciation 1,076 709 769 829 889 From Profit & Loss Account
Change in Working Capital -1,332 439 273 270 261 From Cash Flow from Operations
Net Capital Expenditure -800 -800 -800 -800 -800 From Cash Flow from Investing
FCFF 3,498 6,567 7,995 9,564 11071
NOPLAT + Depreciation + Change in Working Capital
- Net Capex
Long Term mkt return 6.2% 10 years CAGR
Risk Free Rate 6% 10 years G Sec Yield
Stock Beta 1% From SLOPE function
Cost of Equity 6.2% Risk Free Rate + Stock Beta * (Market Return - Risk Free Rate)
CoE is WACC, because company is debt free
Total of Discounted FCFF 31,534 FCFF/Discount Factor
Terminal Value Growth 4% Assumption
PV of Terminal Value 3,92,946 Formula = PV of (Last forcasted FCFF of FY25 * (1 + TV Growth)/(WACC - TV Gr))
Value of Operations 4,24,480 Total of discounted FCFF + PV of Terminal Value
Value of Cash & Investments 6,368
Cash Balance 5,113
Current Investments 1,253
Non Current Investments 2
Value of Debt 0
Value of Equity 4,30,848
Number of Shares O/S 217
Value per share 1,990