2025 trends that will shape our future.
The future will be derived by strong desires for personal freedom and people’s need to gain control over lifestyles that are moving faster and faster.My goal in compiling “the Future in balance – year 2025” is to help stimulate thinking and hopefully make it controversial enough to cause these topics to be debated. Please take some time to challenge the assumptions, and let me know what you think.
2. IN 2025, IN ACCORDANCE
WITH MOORE'S LAW, WE'LL SEE
AN ACCELERATION IN THE
RATE OF CHANGE AS WE
MOVE CLOSER TO A WORLD
OF TRUE ABUNDANCE.
Infographic Credit: http://idisrupted.com/moores-law-infographic/
3. HERE ARE SOME AREAS WHICH WILL SEE
EXTRAORDINARY TRANSFORMATION IN
THE NEXT DECADE.
5. 8 BILLION HYPER-CONNECTED PEOPLE
Facebook (Internet.org), SpaceX, Google (Project Loon), Qualcomm and Virgin
(OneWeb) are planning to provide global connectivity to every human on Earth at
speeds exceeding one megabit per second.
We will grow from three to eight billion connected humans, adding five billion new
consumers into the global economy. They represent tens of trillions of new dollars flowing
into the global economy. And they are not coming online like we did 20 years ago with a
dial-up modem. They're coming online with a 1 Mbps connection and access to the
world's information on Google, cloud 3D printing, Amazon Web Services, artificial
intelligence with Watson, crowdfunding, crowdsourcing, and more.
6. ITS ONE GIANT NEURAL NETWORK OF INTELLIGENCE
WORKING FOR/AGAINST MANKIND.
8. A TRILLION-SENSOR ECONOMY
The Internet of Everything describes the networked connections between devices, people, processes and
data. By 2025, the IoE will exceed 100 billion connected devices, each with a dozen or more sensors
collecting data. This will lead to a trillion-sensor economy driving a data revolution beyond our imagination.
Cisco's recent report estimates the IoE will generate $19 trillion of newly created value.
The IoE is not making any discriminations and it will affect every single industry, including manufacturing,
healthcare, energy, financial services, consumer goods and of course the ICT. Now this might sound
intimidating, but it’s actually a very good thing if you can anticipate it and prepare your organisation
accordingly, so that you can maximise the benefits. One of the biggest opportunities is the ability you will
have to predict and prevent problems.
In the consumer market, IoE technology is already being lapped up. Within just a few months of its launch,
Apple claimed 75% of the smartwatch market. As yet, self-driving cars are yet to take to roadways.
However, with prototypes already being pioneered and app developers racing to create everything from
connected entertainment to automated piloting using GPS, when the infrastructure required to make smart
cities a reality is sanctioned by local councils and city mayors, IoE could literally find itself in the driving seat.
9. A TRILLION-SENSOR ECONOMY
Counterpoint -
Firstly, the need exists for significant work in the area of governance. Without a standardised
approach it is likely that a proliferation of architectures, identification schemes, protocols and
frequencies will develop side by side, each one dedicated to a particular and separate use.
This will inevitably lead to a fragmentation of the IoE, which could hamper its popularity and
become a major obstacle in its roll out.
Secondly, in order to have a widespread adoption of any object identification system, there is
a need to have a technically sound solution to guarantee privacy and the security of the
customers. While in many cases the security has been done as an add-on feature, it is the
feeling that the public acceptance for the IoE will happen only when the strong security and
privacy solutions are in place. The selection of security features and mechanisms will continue
to be determined by the impact on business processes; and trade-offs will be made between
chip size, cost, functionality, interoperability, security, and privacy.
10. A TRILLION-SENSOR ECONOMY
The Internet of Everything offers a singular opportunity to transform the market as a whole
and business in particular; but it won’t happen without a willingness to keep an open
mind about the possibilities. A connected car may seem like a purely consumer-focused
proposition at first but, in the right context, it could open up a range of possibilities for fleet
vehicle management. No significant shift – technological, business or otherwise – has ever
been possible without a cultural shift too; the Internet of Everything will be no exception.
Business models and Internet of Things -
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kYQ_PHOCjyg
11. ABSOLUTE KNOWLEDGE
We're heading towards a world of perfect knowledge. With a trillion sensors gathering data
everywhere (autonomous cars, satellite systems, drones, wearables, cameras), you'll be able to
know anything you want, anytime, anywhere, and query that data for answers and insights.
Counterpoint –
“Absolute Knowledge” also equates to absolute surveillance, a condition we’re getting close
to now. Our phones can be tracked, our newer cars can be tracked, what we do on the
internet IS tracked, your credit cards leave a trail, Google street view shows your house and
maybe even where you are/were on that day and time.
http://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/2015/05/worker-fired-for-disabling-gps-app-that-tracked-
her-24-hours-a-day/
13. 3D PRINTING
Thanks to the Internet, we are all writers, photographers, filmmakers, publishers and publicists. Soon, we may
all be Makers, too. One of the most important changes will be 3D printing and a zero marginal cost
economy. The 3D printing revolution, when it fully kicks in will be an example of “extreme productivity,”
where each additional unit of goods will be near zero, eliminating profit, and making property exchange in
markets unnecessary for many products.
The democratization of manufacturing means that anyone and eventually everyone can access the
means of production, making the question of who should own and control the means of production
irrelevant, and capitalism along with it.
Counterpoint -
And all new technology produces winners and losers. Additive manufacturing will create new industries and
new jobs. But it may also displace skilled craftspeople, artisans and designers who work with raw materials,
just as Amazon displaced bookstores, and desktop printers eviscerated mom and pop copy shops.
14. 4D PRINTING
In 2025 with this new technology, you print a 3D object that at some future point can
automatically self-assemble or change shape when confronted with a change in its
environment, such as temperature or moisture. This is the fourth dimension. This
technology is being pioneered by Skylar Tibbits at MIT, and it has wide-ranging
implications for consumers and industries. Imagine a construction brick that only reaches
its full weight and structure after water is added to it, at the exact location where it will be
used. Envision hydraulic pipes that automatically repair themselves if they are ever
damaged. Get ready to wear sneakers that become running shoes if you started running,
or grow cleats if you walk on grass, or become waterproof if it starts to rain. While this
technology is still new, it promises to take 3D printing to an entirely new dimension.
17. DISRUPTION OF HEALTHCARE
The healthcare industry is indeed evolving – ageing populations, healthcare reforms and
rapidly increasing costs are forcing us to do things differently. As we move more towards
population health, the entire care team will be responsible for the patients’ outcomes instead
of just the physician/ clinician. With these changes, comes the need for connecting care team
members, patients, and families in an effective manner – regardless of location or device.
Increasing patient engagement and awareness through greater collaboration and information
exchange will become a key driver in achieving better clinical outcomes. As such, the realities
of geography, demographics and provider shortages is making video and collaboration tools
key to the changing landscape of healthcare.
Where technology can take healthcare - https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=1oukZualFAk
18. DISRUPTION OF HEALTHCARE
Existing healthcare institutions will be crushed as new business models with better and more efficient care emerge.
Thousands of startups, as well as today's data giants (Google, Apple, Microsoft, SAP, IBM, etc.) will all enter this
lucrative $3.8 trillion healthcare industry with new business models that dematerialize, demonetize and democratize
today's bureaucratic and inefficient system.
Biometric sensing (wearables) and AI will make each of us the CEOs of our own health. Large-scale genomic
sequencing and machine learning will allow us to understand the root cause of cancer, heart disease and
neurodegenerative disease and what to do about it. Robotic surgeons can carry out an autonomous surgical
procedure perfectly (every time) for pennies on the dollar. Each of us will be able to regrow a heart, liver, lung or
kidney when we need it, instead of waiting for the donor to die. I am hopefully excited by this being on the waitlist
myself.
The first human lab-grown liver was in 2010: http://www.webmd.com/news/20101029/first-human-liver-grown-in-lab
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn23382-kidney-breakthrough-complete-lab-grown-organ-works-in-rats/
20. AUGMENTED AND VIRTUAL REALITY
Billions of dollars invested by Facebook (Oculus), Google (Magic Leap), Microsoft (Hololens), Sony, Qualcomm, HTC and
others will lead to a new generation of displays and user interfaces.
The screen as we know it — on your phone, your computer and your TV — will disappear and be replaced by eyewear. Not
the geeky Google Glass, but stylish equivalents to what the well-dressed fashionistas are wearing today. The result will be a
massive disruption in a number of industries ranging from consumer retail, to real estate, education, travel, entertainment,
and the fundamental ways we operate as humans.
Counterpoint –
There is such a thing as too much information. Just as the "CrackBerry" phenomenon and Internet addiction are concerns,
an overreliance on augmented reality could mean that people are missing out on what's right in front of them. There are
also privacy concerns. Image-recognition software coupled with AR will, quite soon, allow us to point our phones at people,
even strangers, and instantly see information from their Facebook, Twitter, Amazon, LinkedIn or other online profiles.
Watch this for fun: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lK_cdkpazjI
22. A $1,000 HUMAN BRAIN
In 2025, $1,000 should buy you a computer able to calculate at 10^16 cycles per second (10,000 trillion
cycles per second), the equivalent processing speed of the human brain.
Some think 2025 for the computing power equivalent to the human brain is quiet pessimistic. Kurzweil
originally wrote, that it would be around 2023. However recently he changed his prediction to 2020, thanks
to the use of gpu. (source: http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/innovations/wp/2015/04/23/the-
coming-problem-of-our-iphones-being-more-intelligent-than-us/ )
Counterpoint -
People have already given up full time work for a less stressful part time career and are actually earning
more money working 2 days per week than 5. These things are beginning to happen already, many jobs
have been automated out of existence. As a response, society has created meaningless jobs to replace
meaningful jobs, which don’t achieve anything at all, but provide a way to further distribute wealth along
the same old worn out economic model. There’s also change occurring in work itself, such as popular micro
contracting services like elance, odesk and fiverr where people work on their own terms.
23. A $1,000 HUMAN BRAIN
January 2015 -$0.08/gigaflop
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/FLOPS
We achieve one Human Brain capability (2 * 10^16 cps) for $1,000 around the year 2023
http://www.kurzweilai.net/the-law-of-accelerating-returns
January 2015
Human Brain Cost Estimate = 2 *10^{16} Flops x $0.08/10^{9} flop =10^{7} x $0.16 = 1.6
Million dollars.
24. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Artificial intelligence research will make strides in the next decade. If you think Siri is useful now,
the next decade's generation of Siri will be much more like JARVIS from Iron Man, with
expanded capabilities to understand and answer. Companies like IBM Watson, DeepMind and
Vicarious continue to hunker down and develop next-generation AI systems. In a decade, it
will be normal for you to give your AI access to listen to all of your conversations, read your
emails and scan your biometric data because the upside and convenience will be so
immense.
If AI can merely simulate conscious intelligence by processing visual, tactile, and sound data
from the real world in such a way as to respond flexibly and reliably, the majority of our
workforce will be displaced. Take note of the advancements over last year’s trials. Then project
out over 10 years of exponential improvements in computation and incremental improvements
in engineering. You’ll have a multi-purpose android, capable of performing dexterous
execution of random tasks in random environments. Buy a piece of land, bring along robot, 3d
printer, power source, and raw materials, and you can build just about anything…including
more robots and 3d printers which you can sell or distribute freely as you choose. I see massive
deflation across the board as inevitable.
25. ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
But we already see a shift from programmable computing (programmed by hand) to
cognitive computing (learning algorithms that are “thought”; like deep learning or Watson or
self driving cars…). And like the brain these systems can work extraordinary in parallel (our brain
for instance runs on just 200 Hz). IBM just released a chip called “TrueNorth” with over 4000
cores on one single chip which “artificial synapses” allowing them to communicate. It is
explicitly designed for cognitive computing.
http://newscenter.berkeley.edu/2015/05/21/deep-learning-robot-masters-skills-via-trial-and-
error/
Read Martin Ford’s “The Lights in the Tunnel.” What happens when the rate at which human
jobs are automated vastly exceeds the rate at which new human jobs are created?
29. BLOCKCHAIN
If you haven't heard of the blockchain, I highly recommend you read up on it. You might have heard of bitcoin,
which is the decentralized (global), democratized, highly secure cryptocurrency based on the blockchain. But the
real innovation is the blockchain itself, a protocol that allows for secure, direct (without a middleman), digital
transfers of value and assets (think money, contracts, stocks, IP). Investors like Marc Andreesen have poured tens of
millions into the development and believe this is as important of an opportunity as the creation of the Internet itself.
While individuals will be striving to gain control, our countries and governments will begin to see their control slipping
away. The Internet has created borderless economies that have confused the issue of power and control and
even the sovereignty of nations. With the Internet’s ability to conduct business and perform flawless transactions
across borders, countries have essentially lost control of commerce.
Counterpoint –
Blockchain also scares me. It eliminates the role of government monetary policy in economics. But the single way
out we can think of for the coming massive deflation/unemployment armageddon is for governments to initiate a
guaranteed living income. This is only possible if central banks continue to produce the viable currencies of the
world. Who can we turn to for a free and equitable distribution of Bitcoins when there are no meaningful tasks or
goods for the average citizen to produce in exchange for them?
30. BLOCKCHAIN
As blockchains and sidechains proliferate, there are several important implications for the Internet of Things and the
development of Smart Systems. For one, blockchain technology could provide a way to track the unique history of
individual devices, by recording a ledger of data exchanges between it and other devices, web services, and human users.
Blockchains could also enable smart devices to become independent agents, autonomously conducting a variety of
transactions. Imagine a vending machine that can not only monitor and report its own stock, but can solicit bids from
distributors and pay for the delivery of new items automatically -- based, of course, on the purchase history of its customers.
Or a suite of smart home appliances that can bid with one another for priority so that the laundry machine, dishwasher and
robo-vacuum all run at an appropriate time while minimizing the cost of electricity against current grid prices. Or a vehicle
that can diagnose, schedule and pay for its own maintenance.
At a more abstract level, blockchain networks themselves also have the potential to become independent agents, what
some have referred to as “Distributed Autonomous Corporations.” These would supplant systems like banking and
arbitration, which have traditionally relied on trusted and centralized human authorities, with trustless and decentralized
networks. Examples include electronic couriers to securely transfer sensitive information, escrow services to transfer
ownership rights, or even auto-installation services to verify and push updates to the software governing other DACs.
34. TRAVEL & TRANSPORTATION
In the near future, automotive companies will focus on fully automated vehicles where people can “punch in” or
“speak” the place they want to go to and the vehicle will automatically take them there. This “control feature” will
open up huge additional markets for automotive companies to sell to the elderly, families with kids too young to
drive, and the visually, physically, and mentally impaired. The arrival of fully automated navigation systems for
ground-based vehicles will set the stage for fully automated navigation systems for flying vehicles.
The Flying car era has just started with the advent of the drone. Flying drones will be used by FedEx and UPS to
deliver packages, Pizza Hut to deliver pizzas, and Kroger and Safeway to deliver groceries. But beyond that, drones
will enable homes to be taken off the grid with delivery of water and electricity (changing out batteries for the
home), trash and sewage pickup, and much more. These too will begin as air-powered vehicles and later convert
to frictionless drones.
We will see commercialization of the first friction-free no-moving-parts flying vehicles which will be considered by
many to be the ultimate freedom machine. Much like the transition from analog to digital in the world of
information technology, the study of traditional mechanics and traditional aerodynamics will be replaced with a
new physics governing vehicular movement.
35. TRAVEL & TRANSPORTATION
Binary Power
The friction-free no-moving-parts vehicles will run on what we call “binary power”. Binary
power is the concept where two otherwise harmless beams of energy will intersect at
some point in space creating a source of power.
To better explain binary power, think in terms of two invisible beams intersecting in a room
and the point at which they intersect is a glowing point of light. Yes, binary power will
eventually replace all light bulbs. And lest you think it can only be used for intense forms
of power, it will also be used to create “points” of sound, eliminating the need for
speakers and headphones.
36. SPACE RESEARCH & PRIVATIZATION
If SpaceX can master re-usable rockets, our access to space will reduce in cost by 10x.
Unfortunately the recent fatal Virgin Galactic crash will set its private sub-orbital ambitions
back a few years.
Frictionless engines will form the basis of new propulsion systems for space travel.
We will start thinking of fully functioning space elevators operating at full capacity, moving
both people and supplies into space. Over 100,000 people will have visited the moon. We
would have a space hotel making a major impact on tourism with growing numbers of people
opting for the “sleeping with the stars” vacation package.
Colonization of Mars will be a reality, even though humans will never in any real numbers
physically leave the planet as such. Probes will help us understand how to survive there
effectively, where to find water, where the best places to build are, etc..
37. THE FUTURE WILL BE DERIVED BY STRONG DESIRES FOR PERSONAL FREEDOM AND
PEOPLE’S NEED TO GAIN CONTROL OVER LIFESTYLES THAT ARE MOVING FASTER
AND FASTER.
MY GOAL IN COMPILING “THE FUTURE IN BALANCE – YEAR 2025” IS TO HELP
STIMULATE THINKING AND HOPEFULLY MAKE IT CONTROVERSIAL ENOUGH TO
CAUSE THESE TOPICS TO BE DEBATED. PLEASE TAKE SOME TIME TO CHALLENGE
THE ASSUMPTIONS, AND LET ME KNOW WHAT YOU THINK.
Beeraajaah Sswain
https://in.linkedin.com/in/digvine