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The End Of Advertising By IBM

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The End Of Advertising By IBM

  1. IBM Global Business Services IBM Institute for Business Value Media and Entertainment The end of advertising as we know it
  2. IBM Institute for Business Value IBM Global Business Services, through the IBM Institute for Business Value, develops fact-based strategic insights for senior executives around critical public and private sector issues. This executive brief is based on an in-depth study by the Institute’s research team. It is part of an ongoing commitment by IBM Global Business Services to provide analysis and viewpoints that help companies realize business value. You may contact the authors or send an e-mail to for more information.
  3. The end of advertising as we know it By Saul J. Berman, Bill Battino, Louisa Shipnuck and Andreas Neus The next 5 years will hold more change for the advertising industry than the previous 50 did. Increasingly empowered consumers, more self-reliant advertisers and ever-evolving technologies are redefining how advertising is sold, created, consumed and tracked. Our research points to four evolving future scenarios – and the catalysts that will be driving them. Traditional advertising players – broadcasters, distributors and advertising agencies – may get squeezed unless they can successfully implement consumer, business model and business design innovation. A glimpse into the future of advertising Jim, the Chief Marketing Officer of a consumer products company, used to spend 60 percent of his marketing dollars on broadcast, free-to-air television – a significant portion of which was spent in upfronts. But he never knew exactly who he was reaching or how effective his advertising was. Now, he has a very different approach…. and is more comfortable with the effectiveness of his marketing. Jim assesses all media channels (television, radio, mobile devices, print, interactive portals and the like) neutrally to determine how best to allocate his marketing and advertising dollars. Recognizing that consumers have increasing control and choice over how they interact with, filter and block marketing messages, it is more important than ever for Jim to know his advertising is reaching individual consumers, not generic zip codes at the household level. With the help of Cathy, the company’s Chief Consumer Officer, he has gained a full understanding of who his target consumers are, where his consumers are going, and how to reach them on their terms across the plethora of media devices they interact with on a regular basis. As consumers move to 360-degree content and information experiences, marketing also personalizes its content to consumers’ lifestyle, context and location. Previously, Jim bought broad-reaching spots, hoping to reach his target audience. But now, targeting, measure- ment and analysis capabilities that previously were only available for Web advertising are available for all channels. Jim can develop an interactive, integrated marketing plan tailored to his individual target consumer, The end of advertising as we know it
  4. and he pays based on actual impact rather than by cost per thousand impressions (CPM). His marketing message follows those customers across content platforms to deliver a consistent experience. His advertising includes a mix of creative spots and formats, like special interest content, product placement and self-published advertising that are tailored to his consumers’ preferences, community affiliations and devices. This enables his target consumers – be they traditional moms in Des Moines, Iowa, urban professionals in Berlin or university students in South Korea – to better experience the value of his product. Jim created his advertising campaigns jointly with broadcasters, semi-professionals and avid product fans (or “influencers”), who develop creative at a significantly lower cost than his traditional agency. Though Jim creates multiple versions of his advertising campaigns in order to appeal to numerous customer micro-segments, his budget has not increased because of the decreased cost of developing creative campaigns. His ROI is also improved, because the advertising is more effective. Because much of the budget is based on impact, he works closely with the Sales team, and a portion of the direct marketing budget has moved to advertising channels. He is now able to measure the effectiveness of his marketing campaigns through the use of marketing software packages that have centralized and standardized disparate data sources. Jim’s team can purchase much of its advertising space through an open, Web-based platform and manage its impact through a “dashboard” that delivers realtime metrics and analysis across all advertising platforms. Gone are the days of “hoping” advertising works. Jim is now in a world where he has full control of the effectiveness of his marketing spend. Introduction Based on an IBM global survey of more than 1 2,400 consumers and feedback from 80 “We will see ‘neutral’ evaluation of all advertising executives worldwide collected in media formats. There is no primary conjunction with Bonn University’s Center for 2 Evaluation and Methods, we see four change role for linear TV any more.” drivers shifting control within the industry: – Managing Director, advertiser, Europe Attention – Consumers are increasingly The trends toward creative populism, person- exercising control of how they view, interact alized measurements, interactivity, open with and filter advertising in a multichannel inventory platforms and greater consumer world, as they continue to shift their attention control will generate more change over the away from linear TV and adopt ad-skipping, next 5 years than the advertising industry has 3 ad-sharing and ad-rating tools. Our survey experienced in the last 50. This means that suggests personal PC time now rivals TV many of the skills and capabilities that were time, with 71 percent of respondents using the mainstay of success in the past will need the Internet more than two hours per day for refinement, transformation or even outright replacement. IBM Global Business Services IBM Global Business Services
  5. personal use, versus just 48 percent spending To envision four possible scenarios for equivalent time watching TV. Among the the industry in 2012, we juxtaposed two of heaviest users, 19 percent spend six hours or the most uncertain change drivers – the more a day on the PC versus just 9 percent propensity for consumers to watch, block or who watch a similar amount of TV. participate in marketing campaigns; and the openness of advertising inventories. Because Creativity – Thanks to technology, the rising players across geographies and media popularity of user-generated and peer- formats will progress at differing rates, these delivered content, and new ad revenue-sharing scenarios will likely coexist for the foreseeable models, amateurs and semi-professionals are future. The four scenarios are: now creating lower-cost advertising content that is arguably as appealing to consumers Continued Evolution: In this scenario, the as versions created by agencies. Our survey one-to-many model still dominates, but the suggests this trend will continue – user- industry evolves in response to digital video generated content (UGC) sites were the top recorder (DVR) penetration, the popularity of destination for viewing online video content, user-generated and peer-distributed content, attracting 39 percent of respondents. Further, and new measurement capabilities (albeit for established players, like magazine publishers “old” formats). Advertisers, therefore, allocate a and broadcasters, are partnering with adver- greater portion of dollars traditionally spent on tisers to develop strategic marketing campaigns direct marketing to channels typically used for – taking on traditional agency functions and brand-oriented advertising. broadening creative roles. Open Exchange: Here, the industry morphs Measurement – Advertisers are demanding behind the scenes, with little to no additional more individual-specific and involvement- consumer influence. Advertising formats based measurements, putting pressure on the largely remain the same, but advertising traditional mass-market model. Two-thirds of inventory is increasingly bought and sold the advertising executives IBM polled expect through efficient open exchanges, bypassing 20 percent of advertising revenue to shift from traditional intermediaries. impression-based to impact-based formats Consumer Choice: Tired of intrusions, within three years. consumers exert more control over the adver- Advertising inventories – New entrants are tising they view and filter. Formats evolve to making ad space that once was proprietary contextual, interactive, permission-based and available through open, efficient exchanges. targeted messaging to retain attention. As a result, more than half of the ad execu- Ad Marketplace: Consumers choose preferred tives interviewed expect that open platforms ad types as part of self-programming their will, within the next five years, take 30 percent media choices and are more involved in ad of the revenue currently flowing to proprietary development and distribution. Advertising is incumbents such as broadcasters. sold predominantly through open, dynamic The end of advertising as we know it 3
  6. exchanges, allowing virtually any advertiser and operating capabilities across the adver- (large or small) to reach any consumer. With tising lifecycle – consumer analytics, channel new consumer monitoring technologies in planning, buying/selling, creation, delivery and place, consumer action drives pricing. impact reporting. As the advertising value chain reconfigures, We know advertising remains integral to pop broadcasters, advertising agencies and media culture and media investment. But it also will distributors in particular will need to make need to morph into new formats and new a number of “no regret” moves (necessary channels and offer more intrinsic value to actions regardless of which scenario plays out consumers to capture a meaningful share of in the future) to innovate in three key areas: fragmented audience attention. 1. Consumer innovation: Drive greater There is no question that the future of adver- creativity in traditional ads, while also pursuing tising will look radically different from its past. new ad formats across media devices to The push for control of attention, creativity, attract and retain customers. For example, measurements and inventory will reshape the consider tactics like campaign bleeds, micro- advertising value chain and shift the balance versioning, video ad flickers, pod manage- of power. For both incumbent and new players, ment and ad-supported content creation it is imperative to plan for multiple consumer (embedded in the programming) to limit ad- futures, craft agile strategies and build new 4 skipping. This also means making segmenta- capabilities before advertising as we know it tion, micro-segmentation and personalization disappears. paramount in marketing. Anyone that touches Key questions to consider buyers and consumers needs to collect and analyze data to produce relevant and predic- • Will advertisers still need a traditional agency? If tive insights. so, in what capacity? • Will traditional programmers lose significant 2. Business model innovation: Pioneer revenue to the Internet, mobile device providers changes in how advertising is sold, the and interactive home portals? structure and forms of partnerships, revenue • Will consumers reject outright the concept of models, advertising formats and reporting interruption marketing in the future? metrics. For example, broadcasters, agencies • Will consumer receptivity vary by medium (for and distributors can pursue opportunities example, mobile devices versus home-oriented such as agency gain sharing, more sponsored devices)? shows, impact-based pricing models, user- generated advertising revenue-sharing models • Will consumers see value in advertising as a and open inventory, cross-channel sales. trade-off for content? • To what extent will advertising inventory be sold 3. Business design and infrastructure innova- through open platforms? tion: Support consumer and business model • Do advertising industry players have the innovation through redesigned organizational customer analytics needed to better understand and reach target customers? • Are companies organized correctly to create, market and distribute cross-platform content? IBM Global Business Services IBM Global Business Services
  7. The end of advertising as we know it Industry battles and trends: our analysis shows that the actual growth of Internet advertising has outpaced forecasts by Power shifts 5 25 to 40 percent over the past two years. As advertising budgets shift to new formats and shape the future advertising market, But even in Figure 1’s forecasts – which may control of marketing revenues and power will be too conservative – digital, mobile and hinge on four key market drivers: attention, interactive formats are clearly the key to creativity, measures and advertising invento- overall industry growth going forward. Mature ries. This section will explore these changes channels like print, traditional direct marketing and their economic impacts through 2012. and TV have 2010 CAGR forecasts of low single digits, while the combined growth Interactive advertising We expect overall ad spend to grow in line forecast for interactive advertising formats, with the general health of the economy, but formats are key to such as Internet, interactive television promo- the composition of that spending will change. overall industry growth. tions, mobile and in-game advertising, is over We have used an amalgamation of industry 6 20 percent. forecasts for our consensus view in Figure 1. While this spending breakdown is helpful Product placement is the only “traditional” for highlighting the direction of change, the marketing tool with comparable growth speed and magnitude of this kind of disrup- expectations – spurred by advertisers’ desire tive change tends to be underestimated by to drive relevancy and reach for their adver- traditional forecasting methods. For example, tising as consumer control over interruption advertising continues. FIGURE 1. CAGR Global advertising spend by category. (2006-2010) Mobile advertising 0 5.9% New ad Global Internet 0 00 formats Interactive TV promotions 9 22.4% 30 5.7% In-game advertising 9 300 U.S. product placement 0 US$ billions Global cable/multichannel 0 Global broadcast 00 Traditional U.S. MSO advertising ad formats 0 4.4% Global radio and outdoor 00 Global magazine Global newspaper 0 U.S. local station 0 00 003 00 00 006 007F 008F 009F 00F Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis based on an amalgamation of industry forecasts. The end of advertising as we know it
  8. While control of attention, creativity, measure- enon, we are reaching a critical juncture where ments and advertising inventories impacts all new platforms may soon have more impact forms of advertising and content funding, we than TV. Today, consumers have more options are focusing here on TV/video as an illustration for visual entertainment than ever before – TV, of significant change. PC, game consoles, mobile devices and more. Studies from several countries have shown Attention that, especially for young users, TV is increas- “Consumers will continue to gain ingly becoming a secondary “background 8 medium.” The primary focus of attention is more power over content, but they elsewhere – surfing the Internet, chatting or will not ‘skip’ all forms of adver- playing an online game. Our consumer survey tising. Fewer will pay for all the showed that more respondents spend signifi- cant blocks of time on daily personal Internet content they want to consume; usage than watching TV, especially among the there will be new models to heaviest users. This behavior is particularly prominent for younger audiences (ages 18 to trade attention to advertising for 24) and “gadgetiers” (early adopter consumers content.” who own at least four multimedia devices). Our survey also illustrates the ongoing frag- – Account Executive, full-service media agency, North America mentation of consumer attention and the wide variations in adoption by age groups across As we predicted in our 2002 “Vying for content services (see Figure 2). The only Attention” paper, audiences continue to content service with mass adoption (greater 7 fragment. While this is not a new phenom- FIGURE 2. U.S. content subscription services adoption by age group. 18-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55+ TV: Premium video content Online: Social networking sites Online: User-generated content sites Online: Music service (e.g., Rhapsody) Online: Newspaper subscription Online: e-Book subscription Portable: Music service (e.g., iTunes) Mobile: Internet plan Mobile: Content plan Mass adoption (greater than or equal to 0%) Moderate adoption (0-9%) Highest adoption Significant adoption (0-9%) Partial adoption (0-9%) across age groups Strong adoption (30-39%) Niche adoption (less than 0%) Source: IBM 2007 Digital Consumer Study. 6 IBM Global Business Services
  9. than 50 percent) was Social Networking, and in the United States within the next five years, this was only among respondents under the which poses a significant threat to the tradi- 10 age of 35. Younger audiences are far more tional TV advertising model. willing to experiment with new content sources, In our consumer survey, 53 percent of DVR though less willing to pay, particularly for online owners in the United States report watching services. Older audiences had higher adoption at least 50 percent of television content on of more traditional services, such as premium replay, supplying them with the fast-forward content for television and online newspaper capabilities that allow ad-skipping. As DVRs subscriptions. gain traction across demographic groups As users migrate to new screens for content and consumer segments, traditional tele- Advertising spend will and information, advertising and marketing will vision advertising may be the first major eventually synchronize need to shift as well. It is more important than casualty of changing media consumption with shifts in consumer ever to reach consumers where they want, habits. And though new commercial rating attention from television to when they want and how they want. And with tools can now track viewership via DVR, other media formats. advertising dollars funding a significant portion industry debate continues about the true of entertainment around the world (sponsoring value of an ad if it is viewed after the initial, an estimated 50 percent of television in major targeted broadcast period. markets, for example), the medium, content Multimedia devices are also proliferating, 9 and advertising spending must synch up. though adoption behaviors vary by country. We are also witnessing the possible substitu- For example, respondents from Germany tion of other visual media for TV viewing time. appear to prefer portable devices and are far Though mobile video consumption is currently more likely to have MP3 players and Internet- lower than PC video consumption among enabled phones than any other country. our respondents, 42 percent said they have Almost 70 percent of German respondents already watched or want to watch video on a own an MP3 player, and almost 40 percent mobile device. In the United Kingdom, nearly have an Internet-enabled phone, compared one-third of those who watch mobile TV had to global averages of 50 percent and 20 consequently reduced their standard TV percent, respectively. In Japan, portable game viewing patterns. player adoption is widespread, with almost 40 percent of respondents owning one, In addition to preferring hot new devices and versus between 15 and 23 percent in other screens for entertainment, users are also countries. U.S. respondents report higher enjoying and exploiting new control tools. adoption of living-room-related devices, such With spam-blockers, “do-not-call” and “do not as DVRs, high-definition television sets, and mail” lists in the United States, the DVR and game consoles, but have lower adoption rates peer distribution tools, marketers are being for portable devices, such as MP3 players, forced to rethink how to prevent buyers from Internet-enabled phones and portable game tuning out. players, than other countries. Finally, video on demand (VOD) habits vary, with close to 50 For example, 25 percent of our U.S. consumer percent of U.K. and U.S. respondents having respondents and 20 percent of our U.K. already watched VOD, as compared to less respondents already have a DVR. Given high than 5 percent of Germany and Japan respon- customer satisfaction rates, forecasters project dents who have done so. DVR penetration to reach close to 40 percent The end of advertising as we know it 7
  10. What do these trends mean for the indus- we believe that the current large discrepancy try’s bottom line? Nearly half of the respon- between advertising revenues and eyeballs dents in our advertising executive interviews will shrink significantly over the next five years. expect a significant (i.e., greater than 10 The majority of the advertising executives we percent) revenue shift away from the 30- interviewed expect significant dollar shifts second spot within the next five years, and from traditional advertising vehicles to search, almost 10 percent of respondents thought mobile, Internet Protocol Television (IPTV), VOD there would be a dramatic (i.e., greater than and online video ads. Advertising industry 25 percent) shift. incumbents could lose out entirely if they do As consumers turn away from traditional televi- not keep up with advertisers who are following sion and toward new content sources, such as their audiences into new channels. popular online sites (like YouTube, MySpace Creativity and Facebook), games, mobile and other “Consumer-created advertising will emerging entertainment platforms, the shift in attention will eventually be reflected in adver- have all the appeal of anything tising, subscription and transactional fees. This crafted by the agencies, and will be puts at risk the revenue base of incumbent, traditional content distributors and aggrega- ‘coopted’ by the brands themselves.” tors – especially for those that do not produce – CEO, advertiser, Asia Pacific content or own rights to distribute content on these newer channels. In addition to new tools for control of what consumers choose to view, lower cost tools As shown in Figure 3, growth in Internet adver- are also available that allow new creative input tising far exceeds that of traditional channels from consumers, semi-professionals, amateurs like television. And while no evidence suggests and nontraditional players. Inexpensive video- a one-to-one correlation of advertising revenue and photo-editing tools create opportunities with this audience migration to new channels, for hobby tribes and individual users to self- produce entertainment and advertising – a FIGURE 3. form of creative populism. At the same time, Index of U.S. ad-spend growth: All television content owners are increasingly partnering versus consumer Internet. directly with advertisers to develop innovative 700 and strategic marketing campaigns that go Consumer Internet ad spend 600 beyond the traditional advertising formats. 00 Our consumer survey shows users – particu- 100-point index 00 larly those in the United States and the United Kingdom – are increasingly willing to 300 participate in social networking sites, with 26 TV ad spend 00 percent of U.S. respondents and 20 percent of U.K. respondents having already contributed 00 content. And though not quite as popular yet, 0 users are starting to create video content for 99 00 0 0 03 0 0 06 07F 08F 09F UGC sites, with 9 percent of German and 7 Source: IBM Institute for Business Value analysis based on an amalgamation of industry forecasts. 8 IBM Global Business Services
  11. for creative services and making their money percent of U.S. respondents reporting they 12 on the media. Conde Nast trades on its ability have contributed to those sites (see Figure 4). to blend images, characters and stories from We also see evidence of consumers content into relevant, marketing campaigns, becoming trusted influencers. When asked relying on a panel of more than 100,000 about how they find content on UGC sites 13 consumers to evaluate the advertising. like YouTube, 32 percent said they followed recommendations from friends. We expect FIGURE 4. the power of communities to grow as tools for Percentage of global respondents who visit and/ or contribute to social networking or UGC sites. community-based recommendations improve. The “voice” delivering a message, along with 0 its perceived authenticity, will become as powerful perhaps as the message or offer. 0 3 There are also other creative forces at play. In Within five years, 30 addition to users, other members of the value Percent advertising executives chain – such as content owners and broad- expect 15 percent of 0 casters – are increasingly working directly with television viewing time advertisers to drive nontraditional campaigns, 0 and 25 percent of PC bypassing the agency’s intermediary role as the cost of production declines and tools time to be devoted to 0 Social networking UGC site become generally accessible. For example, user-generated content. creating a professional video ad typically costs United States Japan around US$100,000 to US$350,000 or more, Australia United Kingdom which is prohibitive for most small businesses. Germany Contribute However, cheaper tools and community-based Source: IBM 2007 Digital Consumer Study. or semi-professional content creation can lower production costs to reasonable levels, UGC impacts the industry through two primary making them affordable for small and medium- avenues: content production and attention sized businesses that cater to niche markets. influence. We’ve already discussed the rise Current TV, for example, pays US$1,000 for of semi-professionals, user enthusiasts and viewer-created advertisements (V-CAMs) that amateurs producing content. Now, let’s link 11 it chooses to air. back to issues of attention, a circular topic of sorts. As new types of content are created, Further, content owners are broadening their audience fragmentation increases. The adver- creative roles, taking on responsibilities that tising executives we interviewed expect a previously belonged to agencies. There are significant portion of content consumed on already many examples of broadcast and different devices to be user-generated within publishing content owners that are displacing five years – nearly 15 percent of TV time and traditional ad agencies in creative and about 25 percent of PC time. This means that campaign planning. Companies like Conde there is an opening for new aggregators and Nast’s Media Group have creative units that distributors – the likes of YouTube, Grouper or work directly with advertisers to produce and Current TV – to capture a share of revenue distribute custom advertising programs often that would have previously gone to traditional at lower prices than agencies by charging cost programmers or channels. The end of advertising as we know it 9
  12. Measures The majority of the respondents in our panel of advertising industry executives also indicated “It is becoming increasingly easy to that UGC is not “hype” and is here to stay. They measure actual viewership, engage- also felt that inexpensive video production ment and response. Having that tools will increase competition among profes- sionals, amateurs and semi-professionals. accurate information will greatly alter the way advertising is pro- As a result, content owners, distributors, advertisers and agencies are all becoming duced and disseminated and how more creative about how to reach the target it is ultimately paid for.” consumer. For example, broadcasters are making use of content bleeds in advertising – Account Executive, full-service media agency, pods – where characters become a part of the North America commercial message. On the flip side, product Evolving technologies, coupled with advertisers’ placement continues to become more popular demands for improved targeting, accountability as a way to integrate the marketing message and ROI, are driving changes in measurement directly into the program itself. There are also and associated advertising business models. an ever-increasing number of new ad formats As consumer attention continues to fragment, to capture the consumer’s attention, both on measurements will only remain relevant if adver- the TV screen and on the Web. Formats like tisers track finer segments and perhaps even short-form video, flickers, bugs, banners and individual viewers. pop-ups continue to evolve. Finally, players are doing a better job of matching the ad We therefore predict individual- and micro- content with the programming content to drive targeting becoming prevalent across all media relevancy. The recent results of an ongoing formats. In addition to requiring new partner- study by TiVo Inc. concluded that relevancy ships and investment, this kind of advertising 14 outweighs creativity in TV commercials. will also necessitate a major increase in the The ads least likely to be skipped were well- number of creative spots and campaigns tailored to their audience – they were often to reach targets with niche or specialized those ads that aired during the daytime on messages. More spots will likely mean lower cable (where shows have smaller, niche average price points on creative. Companies audiences and it’s easier to determine viewers’ like QMeCom are allowing for customization interests) or during prime time on directly with automation, so that hundreds of creative 15 relevant programs. outputs take the place of the mere one, two or 16 five variations common in days past. With a wider group of content creators contrib- uting to the mix, pieces of the creative value Hardware (i.e., set-top-box-based, head- chain may commoditize or experience price end-based, portable device) and software pressure (similar to how independent films technology advances are enabling improved have lowered the cost of one echelon of targeting and response tracking capabilities filmmaking). The advertising value chain will across media formats. Companies like TiVo therefore need to proactively integrate the and Nielsen are beginning to supply realtime, more creative parts of its team, or others will non-sampled measurements of ad-skipping, do so from outside. 0 IBM Global Business Services
  13. 17 purchasing influence and the like. Other pod management, skip-resistant creative companies are moving toward providing campaigns, greater creativity immersed targeted delivery capabilities across media within ads (to entice people not to skip), platforms, based on a combination of user more dynamic product placements and more, behavior and opt-in data. should produce greater impact. Two-thirds of the industry Furthermore, a new breed of Chief Marketing Finally, while much of the current industry Officer (CMO), conversant with Internet discussion is related to new measures for executives we interviewed metrics, is seeking more focused targeting arguably “old,” one-to-many advertising expect 20 percent of and accountability (ROI) for marketing formats, the era of truly interactive, experience- advertising revenue to shift budgets across channels. As the first genera- based advertising is coming. For example, from impression-based tion of professionals who have grown up with in virtual 3D worlds, audiences can use and the Internet rises to positions of responsibility interact with a brand, rather than just be to impact-based formats among advertisers, we are likely to see more “exposed” to it. And these new advertising within three years. experimentation and a greater readiness to experiences are marching forward largely adopt new platforms – especially if they can without leadership from established broad- demonstrate effectiveness. casters, agencies and advertisers. Two-thirds of our global advertising industry These trends imply the boundaries between executive panel expects 20 percent of “local” and “national” advertising will blur. advertising revenue to shift from impression- Media companies historically strong in local based to impact-based formats within three advertising (e.g., cable, newspapers) will have years (see Figure 5). Targeting, measurement to improve their interactive capabilities, while and accountability capabilities will have to national advertisers (e.g., Broadcast TV) and evolve to reflect new advertiser goals and interactive players will have to improve upon demands. This shift will be particularly critical their local targeting capabilities (meaning, for traditional TV, as it is increasingly delivered know where the consumer is). digitally. New types of advertising, such as Advertising inventories “The U.S. television advertising FIGURE 5. upfronts are not likely to exist more Time horizon for shift from impression-based to impact-based advertising. than another few years.” – Executive, major online media aggregator, 8% 3 years North America 33% years Today, most inventory systems, such as the 3% Shift already started television upfronts in the United States, involve 7% Never relatively few buyers and sellers, most of which are very large companies. For example, % year GroupM, of the London-based WPP Group, Source: IBM 2007 advertising industry executive interviews and panel discussions. The end of advertising as we know it
  14. sealed the first major deal of the 2007 upfront Internet players have shown themselves to be season with a multiplatform, US$1 billion more adept at extending their predominantly 18 agreement with NBC Universal. online platforms into other channels. Google, for example, is leveraging its tracking capabili- According to our New platform players are offering advertisers ties and matching algorithms for both new the ability to purchase ads via aggregated industry executive and traditional channels, such as radio, TV and networks. These capabilities provide key print through its acquisition of dMarc, partner- panel, 30 percent of benefits such as: improved inventory manage- ships with EchoStar and Astound Cable, and advertising revenues ment, improved pricing transparency, stream- 19 the launch of Google Print Ads. This is a shift will shift from lined buying/selling processes, and improved in focus to adjacent growth opportunities from analysis and reporting capabilities. These new traditional incumbents Google’s initial focus on paid search. entrants/platforms are positioned to capture to automated an important part of the future advertising Investments in the traditional advertising placement/auction and marketing value chain. Going forward, we space by new entrants may pose a threat to platforms within the anticipate that inventory management systems current value-chain incumbents. As fragmen- will become more open and transparent and tation becomes a permanent fixture within next five years. will involve a larger number of smaller buyers media and entertainment, advertisers will be and sellers. forced to move to more efficient and dynamic platforms capable of managing inventory, The majority of our advertising industry execu- planning, delivering, tracking and measuring tives agreed with this directional trend. In fact, effectiveness of advertising across multiple they predict a significant shift in control of channels and in realtime. advertising revenues, with more dollars flowing Future scenarios: Scenarios of from private to open markets over the next five years. The panel also expects 30 percent of disruption advertising revenues to shift from traditional To assess the degree and depth of change proprietary sales models to placement/auction expected, we used a process called scenario platforms within the next five years. However, envisioning. In this process, the most disrup- changes to back-end platforms, along with the tive and uncertain variables are combined increased willingness of suppliers to sell both to create and articulate a variety of extreme remnant and premium inventory through these outcomes for the year 2012. open systems, will be required in order for this revenue shuffle to occur. Our scenarios are based on the following two variables, which we believe will be the most The reason for this trend? As revenues shift disruptive over the next five years: in response to consumer fragmentation, it • Marketing control: The propensity of the will no longer be efficient to have dedicated consumer to control, interact with, filter and platforms for each channel. Market forces will block marketing messages move the industry to open, dynamic platforms capable of following a customer by serving • Advertising inventory system control: The messaging across multiple channels. This is degree of movement from controlled, a natural progression caused by the shift of impression-based ad inventory systems to advertising dollars across channels, which, in open auction or exchange platforms for turn, is driven by advertisers seeking to follow advertising spots. their customers’ interests as content is increas- ingly divorced from devices. IBM Global Business Services
  15. – one in which a portion of consumers can still FIGURE 6. be addressed through traditional advertising Four scenarios of the industry’s future. models, while others must be attracted through Open interactive and innovative strategies. Increas- Ad inventory systems Open Ad ingly sophisticated targeting, measurement Exchange Marketplace and accountability tools enable advertisers to continue to allocate a greater portion of dollars traditionally spent on direct marketing Continued Consumer to channels historically reserved for brand- Evolution Choice Closed oriented advertising. Traditional agencies Providers Consumers will continue consolidating in their efforts to respond to advertisers’ demands for seam- Media consumption control lessly integrated, cross-platform planning, Source: IBM Institute for Business Value. buying, delivery and measurement services. Similarly, broadcasters and distributors will In Figure 6, the x-axis illustrates how the continue to focus on horizontal advertising control of media consumption is shifting from opportunities for advertisers. providers to consumers. As we move to the Open Exchange represents a scenario in right along the x-axis, consumers wrestle more which the industry changes behind the and more control over their media experiences scenes, primarily driven by distributors from providers. – traditional players like Multiple Systems The y-axis illustrates the change from closed Operators (MSOs) and Telcos, as well as inventory to open auctions. As we move up newer technology players – with little to no the y-axis, more television, print and interac- additional consumer-driven change. In other tive advertising deals become accessible to words, marketing stays the same as what smaller, independent buyers and sellers. was described in Continued Evolution, but the process of buying, selling and delivering Based on these two variables, four scenarios becomes more efficient. Also similar to the emerge: Continued Evolution scenario, majority control remains with content owners and distributors Continued Evolution is arguably the least The two variables rather than with consumers, and a majority disruptive scenario, though it still involves rapid likely to be most of consumers continue to passively ingest change from today’s one-to-many advertising disruptive to the marketing messages without a great deal model. Control, in large part, remains with of interference or proactivity. However, effi- industry’s future are: content owners and distributors, but growing ciency efforts – largely driven by new entrants consumer demand for control forces some the increasing degree – shuffle profits and power within the industry. progressive adjustments. The industry cannot of consumer control A significant portion of advertising inventory ignore the implications of the current DVR over marketing and that was proprietary is now “open” – sold penetration level and the associated ad- through exchanges, as a result bypassing the shift toward open skipping behavior it enables, the explosive traditional intermediaries. New exchanges take growth in popularity of UGC and related exchange platforms for major share in all advertising categories, and advertising opportunities, or the measurement advertising sales. inventory that was once exclusively available capabilities now available to track ad viewer- to large advertisers – including historically ship. These factors imply a bifurcated market proprietary national television spots – is now available to smaller buyers. The end of advertising as we know it 3
  16. Consumer Choice is a scenario in which in ad development and buzz/viral distribu- advertising formats change at the behest tion of brand information. Further, back-end of consumers who are tired of interruption players revamp the process behind the or intrusive marketing. Consumers exhibit scenes. Because this scenario involves a more control and choice over the types of truly open, dynamic exchange, virtually any advertising that they choose to view and advertiser can reach any individual consumer filter. Advertising formats, therefore, evolve across any advertising platform – as long to contextual, interactive, permission-based as the advertising is relevant and appealing. and targeted messaging to retain consumers’ Consumers have significant choice over the attention and to help minimize both irrita- types of advertising they choose to see – and tion and “tuning out.” To remain relevant, can decide the specific content and form distributors offer consumers choices – in of their advertising. And with new consumer some cases, enabling the consumer to select monitoring technologies in place, consumer the appropriate advertising “packages” that action directly impacts the price of an ad are most appealing or relevant. For example, – driving bids up and down. Advertisers can a consumer might request advertising know immediately whether a spot or interactive be confined to automotive, male-oriented experience is producing anticipated results. consumer products, travel and leisure. At Likewise, media networks will know imme- times, these choices will act as currency, diately if they have increased or decreased with consumers opting-in for messaging reach – with prices calibrating elastically. The in exchange for content. In other cases, definitions of “reach,” “effectiveness” and even relevancy is determined by combining opt-in “marketing” itself change entirely. information with behavior analysis of television, Scenario evolution the Web, mobile and beyond. New measure- Based on their legacy assets and ability to ment capabilities and consumer rating tools develop new media capabilities, players become a crucial component of any adver- across the value chain will take different tising deal. evolutionary paths (see Figure 7). Though we Ad Marketplace, compared to all other believe the industry will eventually become an scenarios, is the most disruptive. Significant “Ad Marketplace,” multiple scenarios will likely change in back-end systems and consumer- coexist for the near term. facing marketing enable new entrants to Signs of this evolution are already evident emerge across the value chain. In this in the marketplace. Examples of Open scenario, consumers reject traditional adver- Exchange initiatives are currently limited to tising and instead choose their preferred niche areas, but they illustrate what the future ad types as part of self-programming their could look like. media choices. The user-generated and peer-delivered content trend explodes, and consumers become much more involved IBM Global Business Services
  17. FIGURE 7. Potential scenario evolutionary paths. Open • Online companies expanding inventory • Self-publishing syndication platforms, management and auctions to non-Internet with consumer revenue-sharing model for channels advertising dollars Ad inventory systems • Third-party platforms that trade piecemeal • Cross-channel dynamic advertising buying, advertising serving and delivery for non-traditional ad • Online, do-it-yourself media buying formats companies • Content owners and product placement, ad- free sponsorship • Mobile providers with opt-in permission advertising • Personalized television overlays from set-top Closed boxes/DVRs Consumers Providers Media consumption control Source: IBM Institute for Business Value. • Google The following present-day examples of Although we expect Consumer Choice illustrate experiments - Online: Adsense – Offers online media the industry to in new formats and marketing themes – in publishers enhanced revenue opportuni- eventually become reaction to consumers driving change. ties by placing contextual advertising sold an Ad Marketplace, 20 by Google on their Web sites • TiVo’s interactive advertising technology this scenario as well enables pop-up messages while consumers - Cable/Satellite: Astound Me, EchoStar are watching programs, as well as while they as the other three – – leverages Google online capabilities to 26 are fast-forwarding through programming. Continued Evolution, sell, deliver and measure targeted adver- tising on cable (Astound Me) and satellite • Aerie Tuesdays is a Partnership between Open Exchange and (EchoStar) based on consumer behavior American Eagle and The CW Television Consumer Choice – 21 patterns Network to target teenage girls in more inno- will likely coexist for vative ways, by developing unique content - Radio: dMarc – Acquisition made in 2006 the next few years. programming related to two Tuesday night that enables Google to offer its advertising 27 prime-time programs. 22 capabilities to the radio industry • Sugar Mama from Virgin Mobile pays - Newspaper: Print Ads – 2007 initiative by subscribers one minute of free air time for Google to streamline the buying/selling every minute spent interacting with ads. One 23 process for the newspaper industry year after launch, Virgin had given away 9 • NextMedium – Platform to sell, deliver and million free air-time minutes and was expe- 24 track product placement for film and TV riencing high response rates of around 5 28 percent. • BlackArrow – Ad platform for the cable industry that aggregates inventory into a • NBC Direct announced its 2007 programs network and focuses on delivering targeted will be available for free online for one week traditional and advanced advertising after initial broadcast. The content must 25 formats. be viewed on NBC proprietary technology, 29 which prevents ad skipping. The end of advertising as we know it
  18. Marketplace platforms that trade completely Broadcasters: Arguably, broadcasters that new marketing formats through an open rely on linear television advertising to fund exchange are still in the experimental phase. operational and content costs are at risk in a But we are beginning to see examples of how world of increasing consumer control, niche the Ad Marketplace scenario could play out content and fragmented attention. And yet, in the UGC segment of the industry through broadcasters have the opportunity to leverage evolving business models like those of Revver, their current mindshare with customers, while Narrowstep, Brightcove and YouTube. transforming their operations to embrace the plethora of new digital content distribution Value chain impacts opportunities. By delivering integrated, cross- Given consumer and supplier changes, we platform advertising programs tied to their believe that mid-term economic shifts will favor programming assets, they can migrate into a consumers, advertisers and interactive players successful future model. over the other players in the value chain (see Distributors: Both traditional distributors (MSOs Figure 8). And as advertisers, Internet/interac- and Telcos) and newer interactive players tive players and consumers gain power, tradi- (Internet and mobile providers) have a small tional agencies and broadcasters must evolve share of the estimated US$550 billion 2007 or risk being disintermediated. 30 global advertising market. Slowly but surely, We believe looming changes and shifts in incumbents are introducing the new platforms advertising revenue and industry control will and formats needed to defend their positions affect a number of players in the industry value in the value chain. They are developing new chain, in particular: advertising capabilities (such as interactive FIGURE 8. Expected impact on the advertising value chain. Creative Media Media planning Content owner/ Advertiser Consumer advertising aggregator/ and buying producer agency distributor Traditional Full service media/advertising agency distributor (MSO, Telco) Traditional direct marketing Content owners Advertiser Consumer Broadcaster and producers Interactive Traditional Interactive media buying, media buying, distributor planning and planning and (Internet, mobile) measurement measurement Relative economic value creation: Premier Moderate Non-differentiated Arrow represents change in position from 007 Source: IBM Institute for Business Value. 6 IBM Global Business Services
  19. Recommendations: Refashioning and VOD advertising), integrating advertising across in-home video, mobile and Internet success channels and focusing on local advertising How can advertising value chain partici- delivery opportunities. By opening their inven- pants prepare for the implications of these tories through dynamic platforms, distributors scenarios? Broadcasters, traditional ad create an aggregated inventory view that agencies and media distributors, in particular, makes it easier for advertisers to see the will need to make strategic, operating and full reach and volume a distributor can offer, organizational changes now to succeed in helping distributors capture a greater share a world with more fragmented communica- of advertising revenues. The race is on to tion channels and new media interaction and deliver cross-platform integration. Telcos and consumption habits. We believe there are MSOs currently have a window in which they a number of “no regret” moves for industry could take the lead on integrating wireless, participants to work toward, regardless of how broadband and video campaigns. scenarios evolve (see Figure 9): These prevailing trends 1. Consumer innovation: Making segmentation, Advertising agencies: Naturally, agencies micro-segmentation, communities and person- would like to protect their creative and are shifting power to alization paramount in marketing analytical positions as intermediaries and consumers, advertisers consultants. To do that, agencies will need to 2. Business model innovation: Developing new and interactive guard against increasing commoditization of revenue-sharing, distribution and pricing strat- players, leaving their services by experimenting heavily with egies, radically shifting the dynamics in the creative advertising content. If the rise of user- traditional agencies and industry generated advertising seems “outlandish,” broadcasters at risk of 3. Business design and infrastructure inno- consider how far-fetched the idea of a disintermediation. vation: Improving horizontal organizational consumer-generated encyclopedia was only a capabilities and adjusting operations to enable few years ago. Agencies need to become the consumer and business model innovation. masters of 5-, 10- and 30-second ads that are not tied to linear formats – be the vanguard of FIGURE 9. testing new alternatives. Agencies can mitigate Three innovation types. the risk of the open inventory trend by offering robust planning and analysis capabilities – helping their clients analyze massive amounts Bu innov on sin of customer data and plan the optimal, inte- ati ess tion ov grated advertising strategy across the ever- inn mo a increasing platforms, formats and pricing del er um models available to them. ns Co Business design and infrastructure innovation Source: IBM Institute for Business Value. The end of advertising as we know it 7