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Global Trade Flow Index
Q2 - 2010

October 2010
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix




                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              2
Global trade growth in Q2 2010 has slowed down and rose by 3.6% q-o-q
following a cautious optimism, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America continue
to rise on trade growth
               KEY DEVELOPMENTS
                                                                                               TOTAL TRADE- TOP 23 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD)
 Despite the slowing of trade recovery momentum,
 trade volumes continued to grow in Q2 2010,
 characterized by easing of the crisis-induced                              2.000
                                                                                                                   2027 2016                                                             13,0
 credit crunch and the rebuilding of inventories in                                                      1926
 several economies                                                                                1803                                                                       1784
                                                                                           1698                                                                     1721
                                                                                    1631                                       1621                        1638                          8,0
 Growth in the Eurozone picked up in Q2 2010
                                                                            1.600                                                                 1506
 with the recovery in construction output and
 positive growth in its domestic consumption,
 however its trade recovery faced a downside risk                                                                                     1356 1391                                          3,0

 as export volumes declined slightly in all major
 European regions                                                           1.200
                                                                                                                                                                                         -2,0

 USA total trade increased majorly on account of
 6.2% q-o-q rise in its imports with increase in both                                                                                                                                    -7,0
 oil and non-oil imports, further widening the trade                         800
 deficit in Q2 2010
                                                                                                                                                                                         -12,0
 China‟s accelerating export growth rate of 23%
 over Q1 2010 has continued to be a major                                    400
 component supporting its economic growth,                                                                                                                                               -17,0
 outpacing US

 Brazil‟s exports surged 7% q-o-q in Q2 2010 on                                0                                                                                                         -22,0
 account of steady growth in the agriculture                                        Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10
 industry and services sector, while Mexico                                                 Growth (%)
 witnessed a 5.3% q-o-q growth in its exports of
 goods because of the big jump in sale of                                                   Volume (billion USD)

 automotive products to US
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              3
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix




                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              4
China replaced US at No.1 position, backed by its own domestic consumption
and a huge jump in industrial production along with accelerating exports
                                                            Trade related parameters          Market related parameters
                                                      Trade Volume                                        Domestic
                   RANK           RANK                                       Q-o-Q Growth Foreign Market                              Global Trade
    Country                                               Score                                          Market Score
                  Q2-2010        Q1-2010                                       Score (B)    Score (C)                                 Index Score*
                                                           (A)                                               (D)

     China          1                 2                      4.00                   4.00       4.00              4.00                       16.00

  United States                                                                                                                             13.27
                    2                 1                      3.77                   3.53       3.36              3.66

    Germany         3                 3                      2.62                   3.33       3.56              3.69                        9.24

     Japan          4                 4                      1.68                   3.32       3.43              3.60                        5.78

     France         5                 5                      1.26                   3.25       3.37              3.67                        4.33

  Netherlands       6                 6                      1.24                   3.35       3.38              3.73                        4.32

  South Korea       7                 9                      1.05                   3.57       3.51              3.73                        3.80
     United
                    8                 7                      1.07                   3.35       3.32              3.70                        3.68
    Kingdom
      Italy         9                 8                      1.04                   3.35       3.45              3.65                        3.62

    Canada          10               11                      0.92                   3.53       3.29              3.67                        3.21

    Belgium         11               10                      0.90                   3.25       3.39              3.63                        3.09

     Mexico         12               14                      0.70                   3.56       3.43              3.71                        2.50
    Russian
                    13               12                      0.72                   3.22       3.44              3.45                        2.43
   Federation

                            Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))                   © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                            GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              5
Brazil’s decelerating trade growth and India’s poor performance over the last
quarter led to their fall in their global ranking in Q2 2010
                                                                            Trade related parameters       Market related parameters
                                                                                                                         Domestic
                                            RANK                 RANK     Trade Volume    Q-o-Q Growth   Foreign Market                            Global Trade
    Country                                                                                                             Market Score
                                           Q2-2010              Q1-2010     Score (A)       Score (B)      Score (C)                               Index Score*
                                                                                                                            (D)

      India                                    14                 13          0.65             3.40          3.21              3.43                      2.19

      Spain                                    15                 15          0.61             3.16          3.30              3.66                      2.07

    Australia                                  16                 17          0.48             3.76          3.92              3.64                      1.81

      Brazil                                   17                 16          0.45             3.62          3.55              3.73                      1.62

     Poland                                    18                 19          0.41             3.66          3.45              3.65                      1.45

  Switzerland                                  19                 18          0.39             3.31          3.33              3.69                      1.35

    Sweden                                     20                 20          0.35             3.47          3.47              3.67                      1.23

     Austria                                   21                 21          0.34             3.26          3.45              3.65                      1.16

     Czech
                                               22                 22          0.28             3.25          3.36              3.69                      0.95
    Republic

     Norway                                    23                 23          0.24             3.21          3.27              3.70                      0.81




 Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D))

                                                                                                                        © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                         GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              6
Amongst Asian economies, China excelled with its accelerating exports; while
 Germany emerged as the growth engine of the eurozone in Q2 2010

                                              1st Quarter- 2010                                                                                          2nd Quarter- 2010
                                                                                                                                                                   China witnessed an accelerating 23%
X - Foreign Market Growth (%)           15,0                                                              X - Foreign Market Growth (%)         15,0               q-o-q growth in foreign market trade,
Y - Domestic Market Growth (%)                                                                            Y - Domestic Market Growth (%)                           constituting 32% of its GDP; backed by
Bubble – GDP Q1 2010                                                                                      Bubble – GDP Q2 2010                                     governments‟ liberalization initiatives
                                        10,0                                                                                                    10,0
                                                                                                                                                                   and investments in infrastructure

                                          5,0          Germany                                                                                   5,0                                                                    China
                                                                                           India                                                                                        Germany
                                          0,0                                                                                                    0,0
                                                                              Japan                                                                                                                               Australia
-15,0         -10,0            -5,0             0,0             5,0         10,0    15,0    20,0   25,0    -15,0        -10,0           -5,0           0,0            5,0        10,0         15,0         20,0       25,0
                                         -5,0          US                                                                                     -5,0            US
                                                                      Australia                                                           India                               Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2%
                           Russia
                                                                                                                                                                              q-o-q in Q2 2010; supported by growth in
                                       -10,0                                                                India’s economy                  -10,0                            exports (benefiting from the Asian
                                                                                                            slumped as both export                                            demand and the depreciation of the
                                                                                                            and import growth                  -15,0                          euro) and Investments (rise in
                                       -15,0                                                                                                                                  construction spending and an increase in
                                                                                                            contracted and despite
                                                                                                            stimulus packages like                                            investment in machinery & equipments)
                                       -20,0                                                                reduction in excise                -20,0
                                                                                                            duties and service tax,
                                                                                                            its domestic
                                       -25,0                                                                consumption dropped
                                                                                                                                               -25,0                         Australia’s economy grew by 3.5% and a
                                                                                                            by 5% q-o-q in Q2 2010                                           20% rise in exports were spurred by
                                                                                                                                                                             soaring exports of iron ore and coals
                                       -30,0                                                                                                   -30,0                         alongside the robust trade linkages with
                  China                                                                                                                                                      Asia
                                       -35,0                                                                                                   -35,0




        * As per the revised Q1 2010 figures released by OECD                                                 * As per the Q2 2010 figures released by OECD




 Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2009, Tradingeconomics.com, Standardandpoors.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

                                                                                                                                                                         © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                                                          GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              7
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3’10
• Appendix




                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              8
While Global Trade is slowly mending and is expected to grow in the coming
quarter, the risk of a constrained growth remains as governments continue
withdrawal of stimulus
                TOTAL TRADE (Q2 2010) - TOP 23 COUNTRIES (USD Bn)
                                                                                                                                                        RISKS TO WATCH OUT FOR
                                                                                                                     13,0
           2016
2.000
                                                                                                                     8,0                             Is growth going to be limited with
                                                                                              1784
                                                                                   1721                                                               growing talks on monetary and fiscal
                       1621                                            1638                                                                           stimulus withdrawals?
1.600                                                     1506                                                       3,0
                                   1356       1391
                                                                                                                                                     With capacity utilization continuing to
                                                                                                                     -2,0                             increase and inventory restocking
1.200
                                                                                                                                                      reaching a comfortable level in several
                                                                                                                                                      economies, is global trade going to
                                                                                                                     -7,0
                                                                                                                                                      weaken?
 800

                                                                                                                     -12,0
                                                                                                                                                     With high unemployment, a weak euro
 400
                                                                                                                                                      and the possibility of international
                                                                                                                     -17,0                            frictions and protectionist pressures,
                                                                                                                                                      are trade imbalances in the European
                                                                                                                                                      region going to rise?
    0                                                                                                                -22,0
           Q3 08       Q4 08       Q1 09       Q2 09       Q3 09       Q4 09       Q1 10      Q2 10      Q3 10E

                                             Growth (%)                         Volume (billion USD)



  If monetary and fiscal stimulus are taken away too soon, when the recovery in trade is still tentative - there is
  a risk of falling back into recession and deflation.
Note: Q3 „10 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for July 2010; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter.
Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Trading Economics, 2010.
                                                                                                                                                                   © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                                                    GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              9
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix




                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              10
AGENDA
• Summary
• Index
• Preview Window for Q3‟10
• Appendix
    • Country Profiles
    • The West-to-East Switch: BRIC
    • Methodology & Base Data Files




                                      © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                       GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              11
Country profile – China
                                General information                                                                Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
         Description                                                  Values                        China‟s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially
                                                                                                    for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected
         GDP                                              1251.1 Billions USD                       to international markets through its vast port facilities

         GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                               10.94%                                    Chinese accelerated export growth rate constituted a major
                                                                                                    component supporting China's rapid economic growth of 10.9%
         Population                                       133.86 Crore                              q-o-q in Q2 2010

         GDP per Capita (2008)                            6000 USD                                  China witnessed a 19% growth in total trade in Q2 2010 over the
                                                                                                    previous quarter, backed by governments‟ liberalization initiatives
         RANK                                             1                                         and investments in infrastructure


         Gross Domestic Product                                                          Total Trade                                    Domestic & Export Market

                                                                      300                                                         40
12,000,000                                                  40                                                                    30
10,000,000                                                  30        250                                                  15     20
                                                            20        200                                                         10
 8,000,000                                                  10
                                                                      150                                                  0       0
 6,000,000                                                  0                                                                    -10
 4,000,000                                                  -10       100                                                        -20
                                                                                                                           -15
                                                            -20       50                                                         -30
 2,000,000                                                  -30                                                                  -40
        0                                                   -40        0                                                   -30
                                                                            Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                         Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2     Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
             Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                       008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
             2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                   2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

               Growth(%)                                                           Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)
               Value (billions Yuan)                                              Value (billions USD)                                       Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com.

                                                                                                                                              © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                               GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              12
Country profile – United States
                                General information                                                               Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
            Description                                             Values                          One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good
                                                                                                    quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient
            GDP                                            3643.75 Billions USD                     custom administration
            GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                             0.89 %                                   The US economic growth slowed in Q2 with less than 1% GDP
                                                                                                    growth over Q1, as companies invested heavily in equipment
            Population                                     30.72 Crore                              from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising
                                                                                                    concerns about the recovery in the rest of 2010
            GDP per Capita (2008)                          35,645 USD
                                                                                                    Though International trade increased in volume, its growth has
            RANK                                           2                                        slowed down and imports continue to outpace exports leading to
                                                                                                    sustained trade deficits


            Gross Domestic Product                                                        Total Trade                                  Domestic & Export Market
                                                                                                                                 10
3,700,000                                                  1.5      350
                                                                    300                                                  20       5
3,650,000                                                  1.0
                                                                    250                                                           0
3,600,000                                                  0.5                                                           5
                                                                    200
3,550,000                                                  0.0                                                                   -5
                                                                    150
3,500,000                                                  -0.5     100                                                  -10    -10
3,450,000                                                  -1.0      50
                                                                                                                                -15
                                                                      0                                                  -25
3,400,000                                                  -1.5                                                                       Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2-
            Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                           Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
                                                                          2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010
            2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

               Growth(%)                                                          Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)
               Value (billions USD)                                               Value (billions USD)                                      Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, Market-melange.com, BEA.gov.

                                                                                                                                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              13
Country profile – Germany
                               General information                                                                   Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                               Values
                                                                                                         Germany‟s GDP increased by 2.2% q-o-q in Q2 2010;
          GDP                                             794.14 Billions USD
                                                                                                         supported by growth in exports and because of an increase in
                                                                                                         investment in machinery and equipment & rise in construction
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                              2.26 %
                                                                                                         spending
          Population                                      8.23 Crore                                     Germany is the world's second-biggest exporter after China
                                                                                                         and in Q2 2010, its export of goods & services grew by 9.4%
          GDP per Capita (2008)                           35400 USD                                      over previous quarter, benefiting from the Asian demand and
                                                                                                         the depreciation of the euro
          RANK                                            3


          Gross Domestic Product                                                         Total Trade                                     Domestic & Export Market

630,000                                                       3    300                                                             15

620,000                                                       2    250                                                             10
                                                                                                                          15
610,000                                                       1    200                                                             5
                                                              0                                                           0        0
600,000                                                            150
                                                              -1                                                                   -5
590,000                                                       -2   100
                                                                                                                          -15
                                                                                                                                  -10
580,000                                                       -3     50
                                                                                                                                  -15
570,000                                                       -4      0                                                   -30
                                                                          Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                           2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                    008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                           Growth(%)                                                   Growth Domestic market (%)
             Value (billions Euro)                                                Value (billions USD)                                        Growth Export Market (%)

   Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Chinapost.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com.

                                                                                                                                               © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                                GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              14
Country profile – Japan
                                 General information                                                                Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                 Values
                                                                                                      Japan‟s economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas
          GDP                                               1300.47 Billions USD                      linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in
                                                                                                      protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services.
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                                -0.63 %
                                                                                                      In Q2, Japan‟s economy has reduced by 0.63% due to deflation
          Population                                        12.71 Crore                               and a rise in the yen
                                                                                                      With the reduction in its exports, its total trade also come down
          GDP per Capita (2008)                             34000 USD
                                                                                                      by 1% q-o-q thus threatening an expected export-reliant recovery
          RANK                                              4


          Gross Domestic Product                                                          Total Trade                                    Domestic & Export Market

                                                                     140                                                          20
128,000,000                                                     2
                                                                     120                                                  15      10
126,000,000                                                     1
124,000,000                                                          100                                                           0
122,000,000                                                     0                                                         0
                                                                      80                                                          -10
120,000,000                                                     -1    60                                                          -20
118,000,000                                                     -2                                                        -15
                                                                      40
116,000,000                                                                                                                       -30
                                                                -3    20
114,000,000                                                                                                                       -40
112,000,000                                                     -4     0                                                  -30
                                                                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
              Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                      2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
              2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                  2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

               Growth(%)                                                            Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

               Value (billions Yen)                                                Value (billions USD)                                       Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, News.bbc.co.uk ,”Japan‟s economy”, 2010.

                                                                                                                                               © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                                GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              15
Country profile – France
                                General information                                                                   Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                 Values
                                                                                                          An increase in consumer spending, a rise in inventories and a
          GDP                                               619.28 Billions USD                           rebound in business investment helped Eurozone's second
                                                                                                          largest economy to expand by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                                0.99 %
                                                                                                          With revival of private sector investment, French domestic
          Population                                        6.41 Crore
                                                                                                          demand showed strength in Q2 although its net trade went
          GDP per Capita (2008)                             33200 USD                                     down due to an increase in energy imports and a drop in car
                                                                                                          exports
          RANK                                              5


          Gross Domestic Product                                                           Total Trade                                    Domestic & Export Market

                                                                     140                                                            10
495,000                                                         2
                                                                     120                                                   15
                                                                                                                                     5
490,000                                                         1
                                                                     100
485,000                                                         1                                                          0         0
                                                                      80
480,000                                                         0     60                                                            -5
475,000                                                         -1    40                                                   -15
                                                                                                                                   -10
470,000                                                         -1    20
                                                                                                                                   -15
465,000                                                         -2     0                                                   -30
                                                                            Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                            2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                      008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                             Growth(%)                                                  Growth Domestic market (%)
              Value (billions Euro)                                                Value (billions USD)                                        Growth Export Market (%)

 Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                                © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                                 GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              16
Country profile – The Netherlands
                                 General information                                                                 Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                     Values                       The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an
                                                                                                       outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of
          GDP                                                189.08 Billions USD                       the world‟s best seaports, enhancing the country‟s connectivity to
                                                                                                       rest of the world
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                                 1.98 %
                                                                                                       The Dutch economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2010
          Population                                         1.67 Crore                                mainly through increased exports, though the q-o-q growth of
                                                                                                       export of goods & services was less as compared to Q1 2010
          GDP per Capita (2008)                              40400 USD
                                                                                                       Growth in consumption and investment showed an increase over
          RANK                                               6                                         the previous quarter


          Gross Domestic Product                                                            Total Trade                                   Domestic & Export Market

152,000                                                          3    120                                                          10
150,000                                                          2                                                           15
                                                                      100                                                           5
148,000                                                          1        80
146,000                                                          0                                                           0
                                                                          60                                                        0
144,000                                                          -1
142,000                                                          -2       40                                                 -15    -5
140,000                                                          -3       20
                                                                                                                                   -10
138,000                                                          -4       0                                                  -30
                                                                               Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                       Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2                                                                                          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
           2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010                         2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

               Growth(%)                                                             Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

               Value (billions Euro)                                                 Value (billions USD)                                      Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Nfia.co.uk, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                                © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                                 GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              17
Country profile – South Korea
                                General information                                                                  Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                Values

          GDP                                              248.94 Billions USD                       Korean economy grew 2% q-o-q during the second quarter of
                                                                                                     2010 due to robust investments, fiscal stimulus and the export
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                               2.10 %                                    boost from inventory restocking

                                                           4.85 Crore                                Even when the domestic market growth slowed down, facility
          Population
                                                                                                     investment continue to improve and foreign market grew by
          GDP per Capita (2008)                            27600 USD                                 approximately 8% making it the world's ninth-largest exporter

          RANK                                             7


          Gross Domestic Product                                                          Total Trade                                 Domestic & Export Market

300,000,000                                                    6    100                                                         15
290,000,000                                                                                                               15
                                                               4     80                                                         10
280,000,000
270,000,000                                                    2     60                                                          5
                                                                                                                          0
260,000,000                                                    0     40                                                          0
250,000,000                                                                                                               -15
                                                               -2    20                                                          -5
240,000,000
230,000,000                                               -4           0                                                  -30   -10 Q2-
                                                                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                            Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2      Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
              Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                  2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
              08                                                           2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
                   2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

               Growth(%)                                                           Growth(%)                                              Growth Domestic market (%)

               Value (billions Won)                                               Value (billions USD)                                    Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Oecdobserver.org, “Korea‟s economy 2010”, Roubini.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                           © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                            GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              18
Country profile – United Kingdom
                              General information                                                                   Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                Values

                                                           465.62 Billions USD                        The UK economy continued to expand over the second quarter
          GDP
                                                                                                      of 2010 as GDP rose by 1.7%; the increase in output was
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                               1.74 %                                     mainly due to increases in business services and Finance and
                                                                                                      construction sector
          Population                                       6.11 Crore
                                                                                                      With hardly any change in its total trade, UK „s trade deficit
          GDP per Capita (2008)                            46900 USD                                  remained quite high

          RANK                                             8


          Gross Domestic Product                                                           Total Trade                                   Domestic & Export Market

370,000                                                        3    120                                                            10
365,000                                                        2                                                          15
                                                                    100                                                             5
360,000                                                        1
355,000                                                               80
                                                               0                                                          0
                                                                      60                                                            0
350,000
                                                               -1
345,000                                                               40
                                                               -2                                                         -15      -5
340,000
335,000                                                        -3     20
                                                                                                                                  -10
330,000                                                        -4      0                                                  -30
                                                                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2-                                                                                          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 010 2010                      2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

             Growth(%)                                                             Growth(%)                                                  Growth Domestic market (%)
             Value (billions GBP)                                                  Value (billions USD)                                       Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk , Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                               © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                                GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              19
Country profile – Italy
                                General information                                                               Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                Values
                                                                                                    Italy‟s GDP rose by 1.1% in Q2 2010, mainly driven by exports,
          GDP                                               493.17 Billions USD                     inventories and investment, especially in machinery, while
                                                                                                    domestic demand remained subdued
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                                1.10 %
                                                                                                    Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in
          Population                                        5.81 Crore
                                                                                                    value chain using latest processes & technology, but the
                                                            31300 USD                               structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs
          GDP per Capita (2008)
                                                                                                    and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of
          RANK                                              9                                       recovery in 2010 a little uncertain



          Gross Domestic Product                                                        Total Trade                                    Domestic & Export Market

400,000                                                         2    120                                                  30    10
395,000                                                              100                                                         5
                                                                1
390,000                                                                                                                   15
                                                                     80                                                          0
385,000                                                         0
                                                                     60                                                   0
380,000                                                                                                                          -5
                                                                -1
375,000                                                              40
                                                                                                                          -15   -10
                                                                -2   20
370,000
                                                                                                                                -15
365,000                                                         -3    0                                                   -30
                                                                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                         Q2- Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2     Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                         2008 008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                     2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                           Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

              Value (billions Euro)                                              Value (billions USD)                                       Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Alibaba.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              20
Country profile – Canada
                               General information                                                                 Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                               Values                            Canada‟s economy growth slowed as GDP grew by just 0.7%
                                                                                                      due to weaker spending in the retail and wholesale sectors and
          GDP                                             391.61 Billions USD                         a downturn in the housing market

          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                              0.71 %                                      Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure
                                                                                                      as well as highly efficient markets, however it is highly
          Population                                      3.35 Crore
                                                                                                      dependent on the US as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US
          GDP per Capita (2008)                           39100 USD
                                                                                                      Canadian exports to US fell in Q2 and its trade deficit widened
          RANK                                            10                                          with increase in its import of petroleum and automobiles



           Gross Domestic Product                                                         Total Trade                                   Domestic & Export Market

420,000                                                      3      100                                                   15      10

410,000                                                      2                                                            10       5
                                                                      80
                                                             1                                                            5        0
400,000                                                      0                                                            0
                                                                      60
                                                                                                                          -5      -5
390,000                                                      -1
                                                             -2       40                                                  -10    -10
380,000
                                                             -3                                                           -15    -15
370,000                                                               20
                                                             -4                                                           -20
                                                                                                                                 -20
360,000                                                      -5        0                                                  -25
                                                                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-201
           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                         2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 0
           2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                    2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                            Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

              Value (billions Canadian Dollar)                                     Value (billions USD)                                      Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com, Roubini.com.

                                                                                                                                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              21
Country profile – Belgium
                                General information                                                                Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                Values
                                                                                                      Belgium's economy resumed growth in the second quarter
          GDP                                              111.38 Billions USD                        with boost from increase in households private consumption
                                                                                                      expenditure
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                               1.25 %
                                                                                                      Exports equal around two thirds of its GDP and 80% of Belgium's
          Population                                       1.04 Crore                                 trade is with fellow EU member states
          GDP per Capita (2008)                            37400 USD
                                                                                                      With decrease in both Export and Import of goods, its total trade
          RANK                                             11                                         dropped by 3% q-o-q in Q2 2010



          Gross Domestic Product                                                          Total Trade                                  Domestic & Export Market

88,000                                                       2      100                                                           10
87,000                                                                                                                    15
                                                             1        80                                                           5
86,000
85,000                                                       0        60                                                  0        0
84,000                                                       -1       40                                                          -5
83,000                                                                                                                    -15
                                                             -2       20                                                         -10
82,000
81,000                                                       -3        0                                                  -30    -15 Q2-
                                                                           Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                             Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2    Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                        2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                     2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                            Growth(%)                                               Growth Domestic market (%)

              Value (billions Euro)                                                Value (billions USD)                                    Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010 .

                                                                                                                                            © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                             GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              22
Country profile – Mexico
                                 General information                                                           Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
            Description                                              Values
                                                                                                  Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of
            GDP                                            256.46 Billions USD                    Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more
                                                                                                  than 40 countries
            GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                             2.18 %                                 Mexico‟s economy rose by 2.18% due to an increase in services
                                                                                                  and a climb in the manufacturing and agricultural sector
            Population                                     11.12 Crore
                                                                                                  Mexico‟s domestic and foreign market showed upward trend in
            GDP per Capita (2008)                          14200 USD                              comparison with its Q1 2010 results
                                                                                                  Its exports of goods rose to 5.3% because of a big jump in its
            RANK                                           12
                                                                                                  sales of automotive products to the United States


            Gross Domestic Product                                                    Total Trade                                   Domestic & Export Market

3,300,000                                                    4      60                                                 30     15

3,200,000                                                           50                                                        10
                                                             2                                                         15
3,100,000                                                           40                                                         5
3,000,000                                                    0      30                                                 0
                                                                                                                               0
2,900,000                                                           20
                                                             -2                                                        -15    -5
2,800,000                                                           10
                                                                                                                             -10
2,700,000                                                    -4      0                                                 -30
                                                                         Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                       Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2-
            Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                    2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010
            2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

               Growth(%)                                                       Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

               Value (billions Peso)                                           Value (billions USD)                                      Growth Export Market (%)

 Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Businessweek.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                          © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                           GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              23
Country profile – Russian Federation
                               General information                                                             Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
         Description                                               Values
                                                                                                 Russian GDP reduced by a sharper 7% in the second quarter of
         GDP                                               334.62 Billions USD
                                                                                                 2010 due to waning of crisis stimulus spending and continuing
         GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                                -7.73 %                               low demand
                                                                                                 Russia‟s total trade volume reduced by 4% due to major
         Population                                        14 Crore                              reduction in its export of goods, hit by a slump in world demand,
                                                                                                 weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports
         GDP per Capita (2008)                             16100 USD

         RANK                                              13


         Gross Domestic Product                                                      Total Trade                                    Domestic & Export Market

11,500,000                                                  10     80                                                  20    20

11,000,000                                                  5                                                          10    10
                                                                   60
10,500,000                                                                                                             0      0
                                                            0
10,000,000                                                         40                                                  -10
                                                                                                                             -10
                                                            -5
 9,500,000                                                                                                             -20
                                                                   20                                                        -20
 9,000,000                                                  -10                                                        -30
                                                                                                                             -30
 8,500,000                                            -15          0                                                   -40
                                                                        Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                         Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                     2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                   2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

             Growth(%)                                                         Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

             Value (billions Rouble)                                          Value (billions USD)                                       Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Reuters.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                          © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                           GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              24
Country profile – India
                               General information                                                                Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                Values
                                                                                                     India‟s GDP fell by 6% q-o-q as both export and import growth
          GDP                                              352.85 Billions USD                       contracted and in spite of strong supply, domestic
                                                                                                     consumption dropped to 5% in Q2 2010 over the previous
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                               -6 %
                                                                                                     quarter
          Population                                       116.61 Crore                              Although India‟s economy slumped in Q2, on a yearly basis it
                                                                                                     expanded by 9% with services as the major source of
          GDP per Capita (2008)                            2900 USD                                  economic growth, accounting for more than half of India's
                                                                                                     output further lifted by robust activity in manufacturing
          RANK                                             14


          Gross Domestic Product                                                         Total Trade                                   Domestic & Export Market

20,000,000                                                  10      50                                                    30    20
                                                                                                                                15
15,000,000                                                  5       40
                                                                                                                          15    10
                                                                    30                                                           5
10,000,000                                                  0                                                             0
                                                                    20                                                           0
 5,000,000                                                  -5                                                            -15    -5
                                                                    10
                                                                                                                                -10
         0                                                  -10      0                                                    -30   -15
                                                                            Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                       Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2                                                                                        2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010                       2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                           Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

              Value (billions Rupees)                                             Value (billions USD)                                      Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              25
Country profile – Spain
                                General information                                                              Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                Values
                                                                                                   The Spanish economy rose by just 0.16% weighed down by
          GDP                                               336.70 Billions USD                    sluggish private consumption, still falling construction
                                                                                                   investment and erratic business capital spending as the
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                                0.16 %
                                                                                                   government battles to trim a bloated budget
          Population                                        4.05 Crore
                                                                                                   With EU accounting for 70 percent of Spain's exports, the slight
          GDP per Capita (2008)                             34700 USD                              upturn in eurozone along with a weak euro translates into
                                                                                                   relatively lesser benefit for spain as compared to other
          RANK                                              15                                     European economies


          Gross Domestic Product                                                       Total Trade                                    Domestic & Export Market

275,000                                                       1      70                                                  30    10

                                                                     60                                                         5
                                                              1
270,000                                                              50                                                  15
                                                              0                                                                 0
                                                                     40
265,000                                                                                                                  0
                                                                     30                                                         -5
                                                              -1
260,000                                                              20                                                  -15   -10
                                                              -1
                                                                     10
                                                                                                                               -15
255,000                                                       -2     0                                                   -30
                                                                          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                         Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                       2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          08                                                              2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
               2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                          Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

              Value (billions Euro)                                             Value (billions USD)                                       Growth Export Market (%)

 Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                            © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                             GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              26
Country profile – Australia
                                 General information                                                              Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
          Description                                                Values                         Australia has transparent border administration and transport but
                                                                                                    its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition
          GDP                                             301.12 Billions USD                       along with high domestic and foreign market barriers
          GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                              3.64 %
                                                                                                    The economy looked more balanced with a 3.6% q-o-q growth;
          Population                                      2.13 Crore                                with the private sector increasingly taking over the government
                                                                                                    stimulus as the engine of growth
          GDP per Capita (2008)                           38100 USD
                                                                                                    Australia‟s 20% q-o-q growth in export of goods was spurred by
          RANK                                            16                                        soaring exports of iron ore & coal; coupled with robust trade with
                                                                                                    Asia

          Gross Domestic Product                                                           Total Trade                                 Domestic & Export Market

360,000                                                     5       40                                                   30      30
                                                            4                                                                    20
340,000
                                                            3       30                                                   15
320,000                                                     2                                                                    10
                                                            1       20                                                   0
                                                                                                                                 0
300,000                                                     0
                                                            -1      10                                                   -15    -10
280,000
                                                            -2
                                                                                                                                -20
260,000                                                     -3       0                                                   -30
                                                                          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                          Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2     Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
          Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                                                                                         008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
          2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010                    2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

              Growth(%)                                                           Growth(%)                                                 Growth Domestic market (%)

              Value (billions Dollar)                                             Value (billions USD)                                      Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Forexyard.com, World Economic Forum, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                             © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                              GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              27
Country profile – Brazil
                                 General information                                                               Key Trade-related Trends/Facts
            Description                                            Values
                                                                                                   Brazil economy continue to grow steadily and its GDP grew by
            GDP                                           499.79 Billions USD                      3.3% due to increase in its export and domestic consumption
                                                                                                   though cyclical forces and controlled measures to withdraw
            GDP Growth (Q-o-Q)                            3.36 %                                   monetary stimulus slowed the rates

                                                          19.87 Crore                              Household spending growth continued to ease and investment
            Population
                                                                                                   lost momentum although government consumption rose sharply
                                                          10200 USD                                as spending swelled ahead of elections in next quarter
            GDP per Capita (2008)
                                                                                                   Brazil exports surged due to steady growth in the agriculture
            RANK                                          17
                                                                                                   industry and services sector


            Gross Domestic Product                                                     Total Trade                                   Domestic & Export Market

1,000,000                                                  8      40                                                   30      30
                                                           6                                                                   20
 800,000                                                                                                                       10
                                                           4      30                                                   15
 600,000                                                   2                                                                    0
                                                           0      20                                                   0      -10
 400,000                                                   -2                                                                 -20
                                                           -4     10                                                   -15
 200,000                                                                                                                      -30
                                                           -6
                                                                                                                              -40
       0                                                   -8      0                                                   -30
                                                                         Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-                        Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2       Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-
            Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2                                                                                    2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010
            2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010                  2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010

               Growth(%)                                                         Growth(%)                                                Growth Domestic market (%)

               Value (billions Real)                                            Value (billions USD)                                      Growth Export Market (%)

Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Prnewswire.com, XE.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010.

                                                                                                                                           © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved
                                                                                                                                            GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX              28
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010
Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010

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Global Trade Flow Index Q2 2010

  • 1. Supported by: Global Trade Flow Index Q2 - 2010 October 2010
  • 2. AGENDA • Summary • Index • Preview Window for Q3‟10 • Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 2
  • 3. Global trade growth in Q2 2010 has slowed down and rose by 3.6% q-o-q following a cautious optimism, while Asia-Pacific and Latin America continue to rise on trade growth KEY DEVELOPMENTS TOTAL TRADE- TOP 23 COUNTRIES (BILLION USD) Despite the slowing of trade recovery momentum, trade volumes continued to grow in Q2 2010, characterized by easing of the crisis-induced 2.000 2027 2016 13,0 credit crunch and the rebuilding of inventories in 1926 several economies 1803 1784 1698 1721 1631 1621 1638 8,0 Growth in the Eurozone picked up in Q2 2010 1.600 1506 with the recovery in construction output and positive growth in its domestic consumption, however its trade recovery faced a downside risk 1356 1391 3,0 as export volumes declined slightly in all major European regions 1.200 -2,0 USA total trade increased majorly on account of 6.2% q-o-q rise in its imports with increase in both -7,0 oil and non-oil imports, further widening the trade 800 deficit in Q2 2010 -12,0 China‟s accelerating export growth rate of 23% over Q1 2010 has continued to be a major 400 component supporting its economic growth, -17,0 outpacing US Brazil‟s exports surged 7% q-o-q in Q2 2010 on 0 -22,0 account of steady growth in the agriculture Q2 07 Q3 07 Q4 07 Q1 08 Q2 08 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 industry and services sector, while Mexico Growth (%) witnessed a 5.3% q-o-q growth in its exports of goods because of the big jump in sale of Volume (billion USD) automotive products to US Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 3
  • 4. AGENDA • Summary • Index • Preview Window for Q3‟10 • Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 4
  • 5. China replaced US at No.1 position, backed by its own domestic consumption and a huge jump in industrial production along with accelerating exports Trade related parameters Market related parameters Trade Volume Domestic RANK RANK Q-o-Q Growth Foreign Market Global Trade Country Score Market Score Q2-2010 Q1-2010 Score (B) Score (C) Index Score* (A) (D) China 1 2 4.00 4.00 4.00 4.00 16.00 United States 13.27 2 1 3.77 3.53 3.36 3.66 Germany 3 3 2.62 3.33 3.56 3.69 9.24 Japan 4 4 1.68 3.32 3.43 3.60 5.78 France 5 5 1.26 3.25 3.37 3.67 4.33 Netherlands 6 6 1.24 3.35 3.38 3.73 4.32 South Korea 7 9 1.05 3.57 3.51 3.73 3.80 United 8 7 1.07 3.35 3.32 3.70 3.68 Kingdom Italy 9 8 1.04 3.35 3.45 3.65 3.62 Canada 10 11 0.92 3.53 3.29 3.67 3.21 Belgium 11 10 0.90 3.25 3.39 3.63 3.09 Mexico 12 14 0.70 3.56 3.43 3.71 2.50 Russian 13 12 0.72 3.22 3.44 3.45 2.43 Federation Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 5
  • 6. Brazil’s decelerating trade growth and India’s poor performance over the last quarter led to their fall in their global ranking in Q2 2010 Trade related parameters Market related parameters Domestic RANK RANK Trade Volume Q-o-Q Growth Foreign Market Global Trade Country Market Score Q2-2010 Q1-2010 Score (A) Score (B) Score (C) Index Score* (D) India 14 13 0.65 3.40 3.21 3.43 2.19 Spain 15 15 0.61 3.16 3.30 3.66 2.07 Australia 16 17 0.48 3.76 3.92 3.64 1.81 Brazil 17 16 0.45 3.62 3.55 3.73 1.62 Poland 18 19 0.41 3.66 3.45 3.65 1.45 Switzerland 19 18 0.39 3.31 3.33 3.69 1.35 Sweden 20 20 0.35 3.47 3.47 3.67 1.23 Austria 21 21 0.34 3.26 3.45 3.65 1.16 Czech 22 22 0.28 3.25 3.36 3.69 0.95 Republic Norway 23 23 0.24 3.21 3.27 3.70 0.81 Note : * Global Trade Index Score = A x (average of (B,C,D)) © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 6
  • 7. Amongst Asian economies, China excelled with its accelerating exports; while Germany emerged as the growth engine of the eurozone in Q2 2010 1st Quarter- 2010 2nd Quarter- 2010 China witnessed an accelerating 23% X - Foreign Market Growth (%) 15,0 X - Foreign Market Growth (%) 15,0 q-o-q growth in foreign market trade, Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) Y - Domestic Market Growth (%) constituting 32% of its GDP; backed by Bubble – GDP Q1 2010 Bubble – GDP Q2 2010 governments‟ liberalization initiatives 10,0 10,0 and investments in infrastructure 5,0 Germany 5,0 China India Germany 0,0 0,0 Japan Australia -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 -15,0 -10,0 -5,0 0,0 5,0 10,0 15,0 20,0 25,0 -5,0 US -5,0 US Australia India Germany’s GDP increased by 2.2% Russia q-o-q in Q2 2010; supported by growth in -10,0 India’s economy -10,0 exports (benefiting from the Asian slumped as both export demand and the depreciation of the and import growth -15,0 euro) and Investments (rise in -15,0 construction spending and an increase in contracted and despite stimulus packages like investment in machinery & equipments) -20,0 reduction in excise -20,0 duties and service tax, its domestic -25,0 consumption dropped -25,0 Australia’s economy grew by 3.5% and a by 5% q-o-q in Q2 2010 20% rise in exports were spurred by soaring exports of iron ore and coals -30,0 -30,0 alongside the robust trade linkages with China Asia -35,0 -35,0 * As per the revised Q1 2010 figures released by OECD * As per the Q2 2010 figures released by OECD Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2009, Tradingeconomics.com, Standardandpoors.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 7
  • 8. AGENDA • Summary • Index • Preview Window for Q3’10 • Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 8
  • 9. While Global Trade is slowly mending and is expected to grow in the coming quarter, the risk of a constrained growth remains as governments continue withdrawal of stimulus TOTAL TRADE (Q2 2010) - TOP 23 COUNTRIES (USD Bn) RISKS TO WATCH OUT FOR 13,0 2016 2.000 8,0  Is growth going to be limited with 1784 1721 growing talks on monetary and fiscal 1621 1638 stimulus withdrawals? 1.600 1506 3,0 1356 1391  With capacity utilization continuing to -2,0 increase and inventory restocking 1.200 reaching a comfortable level in several economies, is global trade going to -7,0 weaken? 800 -12,0  With high unemployment, a weak euro 400 and the possibility of international -17,0 frictions and protectionist pressures, are trade imbalances in the European region going to rise? 0 -22,0 Q3 08 Q4 08 Q1 09 Q2 09 Q3 09 Q4 09 Q1 10 Q2 10 Q3 10E Growth (%) Volume (billion USD) If monetary and fiscal stimulus are taken away too soon, when the recovery in trade is still tentative - there is a risk of falling back into recession and deflation. Note: Q3 „10 growth estimation is based on trade flow data for July 2010; the actual growth rate might vary depending on total trade figures for the entire quarter. Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Trading Economics, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 9
  • 10. AGENDA • Summary • Index • Preview Window for Q3‟10 • Appendix © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 10
  • 11. AGENDA • Summary • Index • Preview Window for Q3‟10 • Appendix • Country Profiles • The West-to-East Switch: BRIC • Methodology & Base Data Files © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 11
  • 12. Country profile – China General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values China‟s low-cost manufacturing capabilities work well especially for its import and export trade; the country is also well connected GDP 1251.1 Billions USD to international markets through its vast port facilities GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 10.94% Chinese accelerated export growth rate constituted a major component supporting China's rapid economic growth of 10.9% Population 133.86 Crore q-o-q in Q2 2010 GDP per Capita (2008) 6000 USD China witnessed a 19% growth in total trade in Q2 2010 over the previous quarter, backed by governments‟ liberalization initiatives RANK 1 and investments in infrastructure Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 300 40 12,000,000 40 30 10,000,000 30 250 15 20 20 200 10 8,000,000 10 150 0 0 6,000,000 0 -10 4,000,000 -10 100 -20 -15 -20 50 -30 2,000,000 -30 -40 0 -40 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Yuan) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 12
  • 13. Country profile – United States General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values One of the biggest economies in the world, the US has good quality infrastructure, quality transport infrastructure and efficient GDP 3643.75 Billions USD custom administration GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.89 % The US economic growth slowed in Q2 with less than 1% GDP growth over Q1, as companies invested heavily in equipment Population 30.72 Crore from abroad and the pace of consumer spending eased, raising concerns about the recovery in the rest of 2010 GDP per Capita (2008) 35,645 USD Though International trade increased in volume, its growth has RANK 2 slowed down and imports continue to outpace exports leading to sustained trade deficits Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 10 3,700,000 1.5 350 300 20 5 3,650,000 1.0 250 0 3,600,000 0.5 5 200 3,550,000 0.0 -5 150 3,500,000 -0.5 100 -10 -10 3,450,000 -1.0 50 -15 0 -25 3,400,000 -1.5 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions USD) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, Market-melange.com, BEA.gov. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 13
  • 14. Country profile – Germany General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Germany‟s GDP increased by 2.2% q-o-q in Q2 2010; GDP 794.14 Billions USD supported by growth in exports and because of an increase in investment in machinery and equipment & rise in construction GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.26 % spending Population 8.23 Crore Germany is the world's second-biggest exporter after China and in Q2 2010, its export of goods & services grew by 9.4% GDP per Capita (2008) 35400 USD over previous quarter, benefiting from the Asian demand and the depreciation of the euro RANK 3 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 630,000 3 300 15 620,000 2 250 10 15 610,000 1 200 5 0 0 0 600,000 150 -1 -5 590,000 -2 100 -15 -10 580,000 -3 50 -15 570,000 -4 0 -30 Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, 2010, Chinapost.com, Economic-research.bnpparibas.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 14
  • 15. Country profile – Japan General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Japan‟s economy is highly efficient and competitive in areas GDP 1300.47 Billions USD linked to international trade, but productivity is far lower in protected areas such as agriculture, distribution, and services. GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -0.63 % In Q2, Japan‟s economy has reduced by 0.63% due to deflation Population 12.71 Crore and a rise in the yen With the reduction in its exports, its total trade also come down GDP per Capita (2008) 34000 USD by 1% q-o-q thus threatening an expected export-reliant recovery RANK 4 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 140 20 128,000,000 2 120 15 10 126,000,000 1 124,000,000 100 0 122,000,000 0 0 80 -10 120,000,000 -1 60 -20 118,000,000 -2 -15 40 116,000,000 -30 -3 20 114,000,000 -40 112,000,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Yen) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Reuters.com, News.bbc.co.uk ,”Japan‟s economy”, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 15
  • 16. Country profile – France General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values An increase in consumer spending, a rise in inventories and a GDP 619.28 Billions USD rebound in business investment helped Eurozone's second largest economy to expand by 1% q-o-q in Q2 2010 GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.99 % With revival of private sector investment, French domestic Population 6.41 Crore demand showed strength in Q2 although its net trade went GDP per Capita (2008) 33200 USD down due to an increase in energy imports and a drop in car exports RANK 5 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 140 10 495,000 2 120 15 5 490,000 1 100 485,000 1 0 0 80 480,000 0 60 -5 475,000 -1 40 -15 -10 470,000 -1 20 -15 465,000 -2 0 -30 Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Economic-research.credit-agricole.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 16
  • 17. Country profile – The Netherlands General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values The Netherlands which depends heavily on foreign trade owns an outstanding transport Infrastructure, with Rotterdam being one of GDP 189.08 Billions USD the world‟s best seaports, enhancing the country‟s connectivity to rest of the world GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.98 % The Dutch economy grew strongly in the second quarter of 2010 Population 1.67 Crore mainly through increased exports, though the q-o-q growth of export of goods & services was less as compared to Q1 2010 GDP per Capita (2008) 40400 USD Growth in consumption and investment showed an increase over RANK 6 the previous quarter Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 152,000 3 120 10 150,000 2 15 100 5 148,000 1 80 146,000 0 0 60 0 144,000 -1 142,000 -2 40 -15 -5 140,000 -3 20 -10 138,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Nfia.co.uk, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 17
  • 18. Country profile – South Korea General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values GDP 248.94 Billions USD Korean economy grew 2% q-o-q during the second quarter of 2010 due to robust investments, fiscal stimulus and the export GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.10 % boost from inventory restocking 4.85 Crore Even when the domestic market growth slowed down, facility Population investment continue to improve and foreign market grew by GDP per Capita (2008) 27600 USD approximately 8% making it the world's ninth-largest exporter RANK 7 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 300,000,000 6 100 15 290,000,000 15 4 80 10 280,000,000 270,000,000 2 60 5 0 260,000,000 0 40 0 250,000,000 -15 -2 20 -5 240,000,000 230,000,000 -4 0 -30 -10 Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 08 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Won) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Oecdobserver.org, “Korea‟s economy 2010”, Roubini.com, XE.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 18
  • 19. Country profile – United Kingdom General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values 465.62 Billions USD The UK economy continued to expand over the second quarter GDP of 2010 as GDP rose by 1.7%; the increase in output was GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.74 % mainly due to increases in business services and Finance and construction sector Population 6.11 Crore With hardly any change in its total trade, UK „s trade deficit GDP per Capita (2008) 46900 USD remained quite high RANK 8 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 370,000 3 120 10 365,000 2 15 100 5 360,000 1 355,000 80 0 0 60 0 350,000 -1 345,000 40 -2 -15 -5 340,000 335,000 -3 20 -10 330,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions GBP) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Financemarkets.co.uk , Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 19
  • 20. Country profile – Italy General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Italy‟s GDP rose by 1.1% in Q2 2010, mainly driven by exports, GDP 493.17 Billions USD inventories and investment, especially in machinery, while domestic demand remained subdued GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.10 % Italy has strong business clusters, producing goods high in Population 5.81 Crore value chain using latest processes & technology, but the 31300 USD structural weaknesses in the economy increases business costs GDP per Capita (2008) and undermines investor confidence, making the strength of RANK 9 recovery in 2010 a little uncertain Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 400,000 2 120 30 10 395,000 100 5 1 390,000 15 80 0 385,000 0 60 0 380,000 -5 -1 375,000 40 -15 -10 -2 20 370,000 -15 365,000 -3 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Alibaba.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 20
  • 21. Country profile – Canada General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Canada‟s economy growth slowed as GDP grew by just 0.7% due to weaker spending in the retail and wholesale sectors and GDP 391.61 Billions USD a downturn in the housing market GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.71 % Canada has high availability & quality of transport infrastructure as well as highly efficient markets, however it is highly Population 3.35 Crore dependent on the US as a market, with 3/4th of its exports to US GDP per Capita (2008) 39100 USD Canadian exports to US fell in Q2 and its trade deficit widened RANK 10 with increase in its import of petroleum and automobiles Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 420,000 3 100 15 10 410,000 2 10 5 80 1 5 0 400,000 0 0 60 -5 -5 390,000 -1 -2 40 -10 -10 380,000 -3 -15 -15 370,000 20 -4 -20 -20 360,000 -5 0 -25 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-201 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 0 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Canadian Dollar) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Stats.oecd.org, Tradingeconomics.com, Roubini.com. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 21
  • 22. Country profile – Belgium General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Belgium's economy resumed growth in the second quarter GDP 111.38 Billions USD with boost from increase in households private consumption expenditure GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 1.25 % Exports equal around two thirds of its GDP and 80% of Belgium's Population 1.04 Crore trade is with fellow EU member states GDP per Capita (2008) 37400 USD With decrease in both Export and Import of goods, its total trade RANK 11 dropped by 3% q-o-q in Q2 2010 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 88,000 2 100 10 87,000 15 1 80 5 86,000 85,000 0 60 0 0 84,000 -1 40 -5 83,000 -15 -2 20 -10 82,000 81,000 -3 0 -30 -15 Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euromonitor.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010 . © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 22
  • 23. Country profile – Mexico General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Mexico has an export-oriented economy, more than 90% of GDP 256.46 Billions USD Mexican trade is under free trade agreements (FTAs) with more than 40 countries GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 2.18 % Mexico‟s economy rose by 2.18% due to an increase in services and a climb in the manufacturing and agricultural sector Population 11.12 Crore Mexico‟s domestic and foreign market showed upward trend in GDP per Capita (2008) 14200 USD comparison with its Q1 2010 results Its exports of goods rose to 5.3% because of a big jump in its RANK 12 sales of automotive products to the United States Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 3,300,000 4 60 30 15 3,200,000 50 10 2 15 3,100,000 40 5 3,000,000 0 30 0 0 2,900,000 20 -2 -15 -5 2,800,000 10 -10 2,700,000 -4 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3-2 Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Peso) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Businessweek.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 23
  • 24. Country profile – Russian Federation General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Russian GDP reduced by a sharper 7% in the second quarter of GDP 334.62 Billions USD 2010 due to waning of crisis stimulus spending and continuing GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -7.73 % low demand Russia‟s total trade volume reduced by 4% due to major Population 14 Crore reduction in its export of goods, hit by a slump in world demand, weaker prices for its oil and commodity exports GDP per Capita (2008) 16100 USD RANK 13 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 11,500,000 10 80 20 20 11,000,000 5 10 10 60 10,500,000 0 0 0 10,000,000 40 -10 -10 -5 9,500,000 -20 20 -20 9,000,000 -10 -30 -30 8,500,000 -15 0 -40 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4-2 Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Rouble) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Reuters.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 24
  • 25. Country profile – India General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values India‟s GDP fell by 6% q-o-q as both export and import growth GDP 352.85 Billions USD contracted and in spite of strong supply, domestic consumption dropped to 5% in Q2 2010 over the previous GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) -6 % quarter Population 116.61 Crore Although India‟s economy slumped in Q2, on a yearly basis it expanded by 9% with services as the major source of GDP per Capita (2008) 2900 USD economic growth, accounting for more than half of India's output further lifted by robust activity in manufacturing RANK 14 Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 20,000,000 10 50 30 20 15 15,000,000 5 40 15 10 30 5 10,000,000 0 0 20 0 5,000,000 -5 -15 -5 10 -10 0 -10 0 -30 -15 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Rupees) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 25
  • 26. Country profile – Spain General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values The Spanish economy rose by just 0.16% weighed down by GDP 336.70 Billions USD sluggish private consumption, still falling construction investment and erratic business capital spending as the GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 0.16 % government battles to trim a bloated budget Population 4.05 Crore With EU accounting for 70 percent of Spain's exports, the slight GDP per Capita (2008) 34700 USD upturn in eurozone along with a weak euro translates into relatively lesser benefit for spain as compared to other RANK 15 European economies Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 275,000 1 70 30 10 60 5 1 270,000 50 15 0 0 40 265,000 0 30 -5 -1 260,000 20 -15 -10 -1 10 -15 255,000 -2 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-20Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 08 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Euro) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Euronews.net, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 26
  • 27. Country profile – Australia General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Australia has transparent border administration and transport but its regulatory environment promotes intense domestic competition GDP 301.12 Billions USD along with high domestic and foreign market barriers GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.64 % The economy looked more balanced with a 3.6% q-o-q growth; Population 2.13 Crore with the private sector increasingly taking over the government stimulus as the engine of growth GDP per Capita (2008) 38100 USD Australia‟s 20% q-o-q growth in export of goods was spurred by RANK 16 soaring exports of iron ore & coal; coupled with robust trade with Asia Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 360,000 5 40 30 30 4 20 340,000 3 30 15 320,000 2 10 1 20 0 0 300,000 0 -1 10 -15 -10 280,000 -2 -20 260,000 -3 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2-2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- 008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Dollar) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Forexyard.com, World Economic Forum, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 27
  • 28. Country profile – Brazil General information Key Trade-related Trends/Facts Description Values Brazil economy continue to grow steadily and its GDP grew by GDP 499.79 Billions USD 3.3% due to increase in its export and domestic consumption though cyclical forces and controlled measures to withdraw GDP Growth (Q-o-Q) 3.36 % monetary stimulus slowed the rates 19.87 Crore Household spending growth continued to ease and investment Population lost momentum although government consumption rose sharply 10200 USD as spending swelled ahead of elections in next quarter GDP per Capita (2008) Brazil exports surged due to steady growth in the agriculture RANK 17 industry and services sector Gross Domestic Product Total Trade Domestic & Export Market 1,000,000 8 40 30 30 6 20 800,000 10 4 30 15 600,000 2 0 0 20 0 -10 400,000 -2 -20 -4 10 -15 200,000 -30 -6 -40 0 -8 0 -30 Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1-2 Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2 Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2- Q3- Q4- Q1- Q2-2 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2010 010 2008 2008 2008 009 2009 2009 2009 2010 2010 Growth(%) Growth(%) Growth Domestic market (%) Value (billions Real) Value (billions USD) Growth Export Market (%) Sources : Capgemini Analysis, Bloomberg.com, Prnewswire.com, XE.com, Tradingeconomics.com, Stats.oecd.org, 2010. © 2010 Capgemini Consulting – All rights reserved GLOBAL TRADE FLOW INDEX_Q2 -2010.PPTX 28