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World Wealth Report

             2010
State of the World’s Wealth                                        4

2009 in Review: Many Drivers of Wealth Rebounded,                  9
but Economic Recovery is Still Nascent

HNWIs Warily Returned to Markets in 2009                          16
in Cautious Pursuit of Returns

HNWIs Cautiously Returned to Passion Investments in 2009          20

HNWI Demand for Philanthropy-related Advisory                     23
Services is Rising

Spotlight: Crisis has Clearly Shifted Investor Psyche,            25
and Wealth Managment Firms are Responding

   Post-Crisis, Client Expectations Have Clearly Shifted;         25
   Firms are Adapting

   Developing a Deeper Understanding of Investor Psychology       28
   will Help Firms and Advisors Deal With a More Volatile
   and Less Certain Environment

   More Mainstream use of Behavioral Finance Approaches           29
   Will Have a Signficant Impact Across Service Delivery Models
   and Platforms

   Many Firms are Already Adapting Advisory Processes             30
   and Operating Models to Integrate Behavior into HNWI
   Investing Strategies

   While Behavioral Finance is Relevant for all Firms,            32
   the Degree to Which Firms Seek to Transform will Vary

   A Path Forward for the Industry                                34

Appendix A: Methodology                                           35

Appendix B: Select Country Breakdown                              37
World Wealth Report
TO OUR READERS,
Capgemini and Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management are pleased to present the 2010 World Wealth Report.
Our two firms have been working together for more than 20 years to study the macroeconomic and other factors
that drive wealth creation, and to better understand the key trends that affect high net worth individuals (HNWIs)
around the globe.

The last couple of years have been momentous for wealthy investors and their Advisors. At this time last year, we were
analyzing the dramatic effects of the financial crisis, which was quickly turning into a global economic downturn.
World equity markets had lost a decade of gains, and volatility had reached record levels. HNWIs were re-allocating to
safer investments and retreating to familiar markets close to home, and Financial Advisors were rallying to restore client
trust and confidence.

A year later, many markets are recovering well and the broader economy, after contracting across much of the world
in 2009, is showing distinct signs of recovery. The HNWI population itself has started growing again, and HNWI
wealth is also recovering. But it is clear from HNWIs’ asset allocations that they are taking a cautious approach to
investing and risk-taking. Moreover, it seems the lessons learned from the crisis have changed the way HNW clients
will think about investing for the foreseeable future.

Clients are now much more involved in managing their investment choices, asking for more specialized advice,
demanding full product disclosure and transparency. They are more educated about investing and about their own
needs. They now understand that when weighing potential returns, they must weigh the risks more thoroughly.

This year’s World Wealth Report (WWR) looks at how wealth-management firms are adapting to behavior-driven
investing by clients, and are re-evaluating their advisory processes, risk models and service offerings to cater effectively
to HNW clients in this new paradigm.

It is a pleasure to provide you with our findings, and we hope you find continued value in the WWR’s insights.




   Sallie Krawcheck                                  Bertrand Lavayssière
   President, Global Wealth                          Managing Director
   & Investment Management                           Global Financial Services
   Bank of America                                   Capgemini
State of the
World’s Wealth
State of the World’s Wealth

ƒ The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs1) grew 17.1% to 10.0 million in 2009,
  returning to levels last seen in 2007 despite the contraction in world gross domestic product (GDP). Global
  HNWI wealth similarly recovered, rising 18.9% to US$39.0 trillion, with HNWI wealth in Asia-Pacific and
  Latin America actually surpassing levels last seen at the end of 2007.
ƒ For the first time ever, the size of the HNWI population in Asia-Pacific was as large as that of Europe
  (at 3.0 million). This shift in the rankings occurred because HNWI gains in Europe, while sizeable, were far
  less than those in Asia-Pacific, where the region’s economies saw continued robust growth in both
  economic and market drivers of wealth.
ƒ The wealth of Asia-Pacific HNWIs stood at US$9.7 trillion by the end of 2009, up 30.9%, and above the
  US$9.5 trillion in wealth held by Europe’s HNWIs. Among Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong and India led the
  pack, rebounding from mammoth declines in their HNWI bases and wealth in 2008 amid an outsized resurgence
  in their stock markets.
ƒ The global HNWI population nevertheless remains highly concentrated. The U.S., Japan and Germany still
  accounted for 53.5% of the world’s HNWI population at the end of 2009, down only slightly from 54.0% in 2008.
  Australia became the tenth largest home to HNWIs, after overtaking Brazil, due to a considerable rebound.
ƒ After losing 24.0% in 2008, Ultra-HNWIs2 saw wealth rebound 21.5% in 2009. At the end of 2009, Ultra-
  HNWIs accounted for 35.5% of global HNWI wealth, up from 34.7%, while representing only 0.9% of the global
  HNWI population, the same as in 2008.



HNWI SEGMENT RECOUPED SIGNIFICANT GROUND IN 2009
Globally, the HNWI Segment Regained Ground                                                           time, after falling 14.2% in 2008. Seven countries
despite Weakness in the World Economy                                                                within the region actually saw their HNWI
                                                                                                     populations recover beyond 2007 levels.
The world’s population of HNWIs grew 17.1% in 2009
(see Figure 1), nearly recovering the unprecedented                                               ƒ Asia-Pacific HNWI wealth surged 30.9% to US$9.7
declines of 2008 even though the global economy                                                     trillion, more than erasing 2008 losses and surpassing
contracted (see 2009 in Review). HNWI financial wealth                                              the US$9.5 trillion in wealth held by Europe’s HNWIs.
also grew, posting a gain of 18.9% to US$39.0 trillion (see                                       ƒ After falling 19.0% in 2008, the HNWI population in
Figure 2). The star performer was Asia-Pacific, the only                                            North America rebounded, gaining 16.6% in 2009.
region in which both macroeconomic and market drivers                                               HNWI wealth there rose 17.8% to US$10.7 trillion.
of wealth expanded significantly in 2009.                                                           North America remains the single largest home to
                                                                                                    HNWIs, with its 3.1 million HNWIs accounting for
Regional findings show:                                                                             31% of the global HNWI population.
ƒ The Asia-Pacific HNWI population rose 25.8% overall
  to 3.0 million, catching up with Europe for the first




1	
     HNWIs	are	defined	as	those	having	investable	assets	of	US$1	million	or	more,	excluding	primary	residence,	collectibles,	consumables,	and	consumer	durables
2	
     Ultra-HNWIs	are	defined	as	those	having	investable	assets	of	US$30	million	or	more,	excluding	primary	residence,	collectibles,	consumables,	and	consumer	durables




4          2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH




FIGURE 1.       HNWI Population, 2006 – 2009 (by Region)
FIGURE 1.       HNWI Population, 2006 – 2009 (by Region)
(Million)
(In Million)

CAGR 2006-2008        -5.0%               Annual Growth 2008-2009 17.1%
                           9.5           10.1          8.6          10.0
                                                 0.1                       0.1
                10                0.1            0.4                       0.4
                                  0.3            0.4                       0.5
                                  0.4                         0.1
                                                              0.4
                  8                       2.8                 0.4
                                                                    3.0          % Change Total HNWI Population
                           2.6
                                                                                          2008-2009
 Number of                                             2.4
                  6                                                                   Africa             13.2%
   HNWIs
 Worldwide
                           3.0            3.1                                         Middle East         7.1%
 (in Million)                                                       3.0
                  4                                    2.6
                                                                                      Latin America       8.3%

                                                                                      Asia-Paci c        25.8%
                  2
                           3.2            3.3                       3.1
                                                       2.7                            Europe             12.5%

                                                                                      North America      16.6%
                  0
                          2006           2007          2008         2009



Note:	Chart	numbers	may	not	add	up	due	to	rounding
Source:	Capgemini	Lorenz	curve	analysis,	2010




FIGURE 2.        HNWI Wealth Distribution, 2006 – 2009 (by Region)
FIGURE 2.        HNWI Wealth Distribution, 2006 – 2009 (by Region)
(US$	Trillion)
(US$ Trillion)

CAGR 2006-2008        -6.2%               Annual Growth 2008-2009 18.9%
                          37.2           40.7          32.8         39.0

                 50


                                                 1.0
                 40                              1.7                       1.0
                                  0.9                                      1.5    % Change Total HNWI Wealth
                                  1.4     6.2                                            2008-2009
                                                              0.8   6.7
    Global                 5.1                                1.4
                 30                                                                    Africa            20.2%
    HNWI                                               5.8
                                          9.5
   Wealth                  8.4                                      9.7                Middle East         5.1%
   (in US$
                                                       7.4
   Trillion)     20
                                                                                       Latin America     15.0%
                          10.1           10.7
                                                                    9.5
                                                       8.3                             Asia-Paci c       30.9%
                 10
                                                                                       Europe            14.2%
                          11.3           11.7                       10.7
                                                       9.1
                                                                                       North America     17.8%
                  0
                          2006           2007          2008         2009



Note:	Chart	numbers	may	not	add	up	due	to	rounding
Source:	Capgemini	Lorenz	curve	analysis,	2010




                                                                                                        2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT        5
STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH




ƒ The size and wealth of Europe’s HNWI population                                            from 54.0% in 2008 (see Figure 3). And beyond that, the
  grew in 2009, though moderately. Europe’s HNWI                                             HNWI ranks remained spread across the globe in much
  population rose 12.5% to 3.0 million after dropping                                        the same proportions in 2009 as they had been in 2008.
  14.4% in 2008. HNWI wealth increased 14.2% to
  US$9.5 trillion after losing 21.9% in 2008.                                                Asia-Pacific HNWIs, Hit Especially Hard
ƒ The HNWI population in Latin America grew 8.3% to                                          in 2008, Led Recovery in 2009
  0.5 million, while HNWI wealth in the region jumped                                        Several Asia-Pacific countries experienced greater-than-
  15%. While the percentage recovery in Latin America                                        average growth in their HWNI populations in 2009. In
  in 2009 was not as big as in Asia-Pacific, Latin                                           fact, the region was home to eight of the world’s ten
  American HNWI wealth is now 8% greater than in                                             fastest-growing HNWI populations. Hong Kong and
  2007, while wealth among Asia-Pacific HNWIs has                                            India led the pack, after experiencing mammoth declines
  grown just 2% during that time.                                                            in their HNWI bases in 2008.
ƒ In 2009, Middle East HNWI population and wealth
  grew by only 7.1% and 5.1% respectively, as the region                                     In Hong Kong, the rebound followed a sharp resurgence
  was impacted by the Dubai crisis.                                                          in the stock market, where market capitalization surged
                                                                                             73.5% in 2009 after falling about 50% the previous year.
While the global HNWI recovery was generally stronger                                        Market capitalization is a powerful driver of wealth in
in emerging and developing nations than in mature ones,                                      Hong Kong, which has a very high market-cap-to-
most of the world’s HNWI population and wealth                                               nominal-GDP ratio. (Market capitalization is almost 11
remains highly concentrated in three countries. The U.S.,                                    times that of GDP, compared with the global average of
Japan and Germany together accounted for 53.5% of the                                        0.8 times.) That ratio makes Hong Kong particularly
world’s HNWI population in 2009, down only slightly




FIGURE 3.              HNWI Population by Country, 2009
FIGURE 3.              HNWI Population by Country, 2009
(Thousand)
(in Thousands)

                                                                                                                                                 2008             2009
         HNWI Growth
             Rate (%)        16.5%       20.8%       6.4%     31.0%       23.8%       10.8%       17.9%      19.7%     9.2%         34.4%      11.9%    12.5%
           2008-2009


                     3000       2,866


                            2,460
                     2500
                                                    53.5% of total worldwide
                                                    HNWI population
                     2000                           (54% in 2008)
      Number                                1,650
        of
      HNWIs          1500               1,366
    (in thousands)
                                                                                                                              Australia moved
                     1000                           810 861                                                                   back to 10th position
                                                                                                                              by overtaking Brazil
                                                                    477         448
                      500                                     365         362         346 383
                                                                                                       251
                                                                                                 213         185 222   164 179      129174     131147   127 143

                        0
                               US         Japan     Germany    China       UK         France     Canada Switzerland     Italy      Australia   Brazil   Spain


              Position
                                1           2          3         4          5            6          7          8          9           11         10       12
              in 2008




Source:	Capgemini	Lorenz	curve	analysis,	2010




6           2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH




vulnerable to losses in wealth when the market declines as              Not All of 2008’s Big Losers Recouped
it did in 2008, but also produces outsized gains in wealth              Their Losses in 2009
when stock prices rise.
                                                                        Notably, not all the hefty losers of 2008 were able to
                                                                        recover the lion’s share of their losses. In many cases, the
Hong Kong also has a very large proportion of HNWIs
                                                                        rebounds were tempered by underlying macroeconomic
in the US$1 million-US$5 million wealth band, so many
                                                                        concerns.
had been quickly relegated to the “mass affluent”3
bracket during the losses of 2008—and many were just
                                                                        For example:
as quickly promoted back to HNWI status when asset
prices rose in 2009.                                                    ƒ The HNWI population grew strongly in the U.K.
                                                                          (23.8%) and in Russia (21.3%), but those gains did
As a result of these dynamics—and given the low base at                   not come close to recouping the losses of 2008. In
which HNWI population numbers stood after the 2008                        both cases, stock market capitalization surged, but
losses—Hong Kong’s HNWI population posted a gain of                       was apparently more than offset by the effects of the
104.4% in 2009. This was by far the strongest rebound in                  contracting economy. GDP shrank by 5.0% in the
the world but since it followed a 61.3% decline in 2008,                  U.K. and by 7.9% in Russia, while the stock markets
the number of HNWIs at the end of 2009 was still only                     rose 49.6% and 103.6% respectively.
79% of the number at the end of 2007.                                   ƒ Some countries, such as Ukraine, Turkey and Greece, are
                                                                          experiencing persistent weakness in their markets and
In India, the HNWI population grew 50.9% in 2009.                         economies. Greece is a prime example, and its HNWI
India also has a relatively high market-cap-to-GDP ratio                  population continued to decline in 2009 (by 1.2%).
(two times GDP) and its stock-market capitalization                     ƒ Similarly, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) lost around
more than doubled in 2009, after dropping 64.1% in                        19% of its HNWI population in 2009, mainly due to the
2008. The recovery was also underpinned, however, by                      crisis in Dubai and the significant fall (-48.0%) in real
the strong outlook for India’s underlying economy.                        estate prices.

China remained the world’s fourth largest HNWI base,
                                                                        Ultra-HNWI Segment Showed Outsized Gains
with 477,000 HNWIs, up 31.0%. Stock market
capitalization in China soared more than 100% in 2009,
                                                                        in Ranks and Wealth
as the economy grew at a rapid 8.7% pace.                               Ultra-HNWIs increased their wealth by a striking 21.5% in
                                                                        2009, far more than the average in the HNWI segment as a
Australia, meanwhile, moved back up to tenth position in                whole. This resurgence followed a mammoth 24.0% loss in
the HNWI-population rankings, overtaking Brazil, after                  wealth for Ultra-HNWIs on aggregate in 2008, and was
many of those who had fallen into the “mass affluent”                   most likely due to a more effective re-allocation of assets.
category in 2008 regained their HNWI status. In
Australia, HNWIs in the lowest (US$1 million-US$5                       A disproportionate amount of wealth remained
million) wealth band account for 55.4% of all HNWI                      concentrated in the hands of Ultra-HNWIs. At the end
wealth, so far more HNWIs fall out of the HNWI                          of 2009, Ultra-HNWIs represented only 0.9% of the
category when wealth declines than is the case in                       global HNWI population, but accounted for 35.5% of
Brazil—where a staggering 87% of HNWI wealth lies in                    global HNWI wealth. That was up slightly from 34.7%
the hands of Ultra-HNWIs.                                               in 2008.




3	
     Individuals	with	investable	assets	of	US$100,000	to	US$1,000,000




                                                                                                 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT              7
STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH




North America still has the largest regional                                                   will continue to lead the way, with economic expansion
concentration of Ultra-HNWIs. At the end of 2009, the                                          and growth likely to keep outpacing more developed
number of Ultra-HNWIs there totaled 36.3k (see Figure                                          economies. The region’s HNWI growth is likely to be
4), up from 30.6k in 2008, but that was still down                                             the fastest in the world as a result. In Latin America,
sharply from 41.2k in 2007. Regionally, Latin America                                          Brazil is similarly expected to remain an engine of
still has the highest percentage of Ultra-HNWIs relative                                       growth. Russia is also expected to display strength due to
to the overall HNWI population—2.4%, compared with                                             its commodity-rich resource base.
the global average of 0.9%.
                                                                                               However, HNWI-wealth creation is always driven by a
Asia-Pacific will Likely be the Powerhouse of                                                  mixture of economic and market factors, and 2009
HNWI Growth in Coming Years                                                                    suggests macroeconomic concerns can contain upside
                                                                                               HNWI performance, even when market performance is
On aggregate, the number and wealth of HNWIs around
                                                                                               stellar. Around the globe, then, the creation of HNWIs
the world recovered significantly in 2009, but Asia-
                                                                                               and wealth is likely to depend heavily on the success each
Pacific was the showcase, thanks to a solid performance
                                                                                               country has in managing the nascent economic recovery
in both the economic and market drivers of wealth.
                                                                                               while driving expansion and handling ongoing domestic
Going forward, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and
                                                                                               and global challenges in financial conditions.
China) nations are expected to again be the drivers for
their respective regions. In Asia-Pacific, China and India




FIGURE 4.          Geographic Distribution of HNWIs and Ultra-HNWIs, 2009 (by Region)
FIGURE 4.          Geographic Distribution of HNWIs and Ultra-HNWIs, 2009 (by Region)
(%)
(%)


                                    10.0                            93.1

                   10                           0.1                                      100
                                                0.4
                                                0.4                             2.0
                                                                                3.6
                                                                    10.7
                    8                                                                    80
                                     3.0                                                                                                   Ultra-HNWIs as %
                                                                                                                                            of HNWIs, 2009
                                                                    19.6
    Number of                                                                                     Number of
                    6                                                                    60                                           Africa                     1.9%
      HNWIs                                                                                      Ultra-HNWIs
    Worldwide                                                                                     Worldwide
                                                                    20.7                                                              Middle East                0.9%
    (in Million)                     2.9                                                        (in Thousand)
                    4                                                                    40
                                                                                                                                      Latin America              2.4%

                                                                                                                                      Asia-Paci c                0.7%
                    2                                               36.3                 20
                                     3.1                                                                                              Europe                     0.7%

                                                                                                                                      North America              1.2%
                    0                                                                    0
                                   HNWI                         Ultra-HNWI



Note:	Chart	numbers	may	not	add	up	due	to	rounding	
									Ultra-HNWIs	are	defined	as	those	having	investable	assets	of	US$30	million	or	more,	excluding	primary	residence,	collectibles,	consumables,	and	consumer	durables
Source:	Capgemini	Lorenz	Curve	Model;	Capgemini	World	Wealth	Report	2009




8          2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
2009 in Review
2009 in Review:
MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED,
BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT

ƒ World gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 2% in 2009, as the effects of the global financial crisis
  worked their way deeply into the fundamentals of the global economy. Europe was hit hardest, with GDP
  shrinking by 4.1% in Western Europe and by 3.7% in Eastern Europe. In Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, however,
  there was positive GDP growth of 4.5%.
ƒ Governments around the world stepped up efforts to stimulate economic recovery and support the
  financial system. Governments implemented a wide array of measures to try and keep their economies from
  sliding into recession as financial conditions remained challenging. Those efforts included fiscal stimulus by
  many nations, but most sizably by the U.S. and China.
ƒ Key drivers of wealth experienced strong gains. Many of the world’s stock markets recovered, and global
  market capitalization grew to US$47.9 trillion in 2009 from US$32.6 trillion in 2008, up nearly 47%. Commodities
  prices dropped early in the year, but rebounded sharply to end the year up nearly 19%. Hedge funds were also
  able to recoup many of their 2008 losses.
ƒ The global economic recovery remains nascent. World GDP growth is likely to be positive in 2010-11 and is
  expected to be led by Asia-Pacific excluding Japan. However, sustained economic recovery is contingent upon
  the timely withdrawal of government stimulus along with the return of growth in private consumption.




WORLD ECONOMY CONTRACTED IN 2009, BUT ASIA-PACIFIC KEPT GROWING
World GDP Contracted in 2009, Hit by the                         Europe and Latin America was primarily due to the drop
Effects of the Global Financial Crisis                           in exports and reduction in industrial production
                                                                 (manufacturing, mining and utilities). However,
World GDP contracted 2.0% in 20094, after growth of
                                                                 economic growth was evident in some parts of the world.
1.8% in 2008, as the fundamentals of the global economy
                                                                 GDP grew 4.5% in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, helped
were gripped by the effects of the global financial crisis. In
                                                                 in particular by strong GDP growth of 8.7% in China
Western Europe, GDP shrank 4.1% in 2009, driven
                                                                 and 6.8% in India6 (see Figure 5). GDP also expanded by
primarily by Germany and the U.K. Eastern Europe and
                                                                 1.4% in the Middle East and North Africa7.
Latin America were also hit hard, and GDP contracted by
3.7% and 2.3% respectively5. The GDP contraction in




4	
     Economist	Intelligence	Unit,	Regional	Data,	April	2010      6	
                                                                      Ibid
5	
     Ibid                                                        7	
                                                                      Ibid




                                                                                       2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT            9
2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT




 FIGURE 5.
 FIGURE 5.
                      Real GDP Growth Rates
                      Real GDP Growth Rates, 2008-2009
     (%)
 (%)
                                                                                                                                                                     2008              2009




                     10                                                                                                                                      9.6
                                                                                                                                                                   8.7

                                                                                                                                                       6.8
                                                                                                                                                 6.1
                                                                                             5.6
                                                                                                          5.0                                                                         5.1
                       5



                                                                                                                1.7                 1.4                                  1.5
                                                      1.3
      Percent               0.4          0.4                       0.5          0.3
      Change           0
       (%)                                                                                                                                                                                  -0.2
                                                                                                                      -1.2
                                                                                      -2.2                                                -2.0
                                -2.6           -2.4


                     -5
                                                            -5.0         -5.0                                                -5.2

                                                                                                                                                                               -6.6
                                                                                                   -7.9

                    -10
                            Canada         US         Germany       UK          France       Russia       Poland       Japan Singapore           India       China       Mexico       Brazil

                                   North                      Western Europe                        Eastern                           Asia-Paci c                                Latin
                                  America                                                           Europe                                                                      America



 Source:	Economist	Intelligence	Unit	–	April	2010.	Real	GDP	variation	over	previous	year.




 Fiscal Stimulus Worldwide Sought to Stave                                                                extreme, Italy’s discretionary fiscal stimulus amounted
 Off Recession                                                                                            to just 0.1% of GDP 9. In absolute terms, the largest
                                                                                                          fiscal stimulus was implemented by the U.S. (US$787
 At the start of 2009, the effects of the global financial
                                                                                                          billion), followed by China (US$586 billion). In the
 crisis were becoming starkly evident in many weak
                                                                                                          U.S., stimulus spending was directed primarily at
 economic indicators. Aggregate demand was in sharp
                                                                                                          immediate tax relief and direct aid to states and
 decline across the world, and most countries had only
                                                                                                          individuals, as well as infrastructure-spending
 limited room to reduce short-term interest rates to drive
                                                                                                          provisions thought to buoy longer-term investment in
 demand. To keep their economies from sliding into
                                                                                                          projects such as high-speed rail, health technology,
 recession, or at least to limit the downside, many
                                                                                                          broadband, a smart electrical grid, clean cars and
 countries implemented fiscal stimulus plans, using
                                                                                                          batteries, and renewable energy. In China, the main
 government spending to provide much-needed support.
                                                                                                          beneficiary was infrastructure (railway, road, irrigation
 Some initiatives were more aggressive than others.                                                       and airport construction), followed by allocations to
 South Korea, Russia and China were among the most                                                        earthquake rebuilding efforts. The other major areas of
 forceful, implementing fiscal stimulus measures                                                          allocation were Public Housing, Rural Development
 amounting to more than 2.5% of GDP8. At the other                                                        and Technology advancement.




 8	
      Executive	Office	of	the	President:	Council	of	Economic	Advisors,	“The	Effects	of	Fiscal	Stimulus:	A	Cross-Country	Perspective”,	September	10,	2009
 9	
      Ibid




10           2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT




Global stimulus measures clearly yielded economic                                                   percentage of GDP dropped to 21.3% from 23.3% in
benefits, but the government spending spree also led to a                                           200816. The drop was especially sharp in Western
sharp increase in public debt in many major economies. In                                           Europe, mainly due to the contraction of GDP by 4.1%
2009, public debt in the U.S. remained the highest at                                               and the increase in government spending from US$3.06
US$6.7 trillion (up 24.3% in 2008-09), closely followed by                                          trillion in 2008 to US$3.13 trillion in 200917. Among
China at US$6.2 trillion (up 29.0%)10. The combined                                                 developed nations worldwide, the decline was led by
deficits of European governments are now more than                                                  Germany (from 25.7% in 2008 to 20.9% in 2009) and
double the 3% mandated under the European Union law11.                                              Japan (from 25.5% to 21.4%)18. Both countries had
                                                                                                    experienced a contraction in GDP. Emerging economies
Central Banks Cut Interest Rates and Kept                                                           experienced a lesser drop than the developed ones. China
Them Low                                                                                            and India in particular experienced only slight declines,
                                                                                                    largely because of their strong GDP growth.
Although interest rates were already low in much of the
world, many central banks made additional cuts during
Q1 2009. Moreover, most countries kept rates low for                                                Private Consumption Dropped Marginally
the whole year, recognizing the need to provide support                                             in 2009
for the fragile global economy by keeping the price of                                              Despite the challenging economic climate, global private
money down—making it cheaper for individuals and                                                    consumption dropped only marginally to US$29.3 trillion
businesses to borrow, and reducing the interest costs on                                            in 2009 from US$29.4 trillion in 200819. North America
debt. The Bank of England cut the Official Bank Rate                                                accounts for a third of all private consumption worldwide,
from 2.0% in January to 0.5%12 in March amid depressed                                              and levels there dipped to US$9.9 trillion from US$10.0
confidence and persistent problems in international                                                 trillion in 200820. Western Europe, which also accounts
credit markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its federal                                           for nearly 30% of global private consumption, similarly
funds rate between 0.0% and 0.25%13 during 2009, and                                                slipped to US$8.5 trillion from US$8.6 trillion. Notably,
the Bank of Japan retained its Basic Discount rate at                                               though, private consumption did not rise in either region
0.3% throughout the year14.                                                                         even though consumer confidence was steady or rising
                                                                                                    after having sunk during the crisis. In Asia-Pacific
National Savings as a Percentage of GDP                                                             excluding Japan, private consumption rose to US$4.0
Decreased Worldwide in 2009                                                                         trillion from US$3.8 trillion, the second straight year of
                                                                                                    healthy gains, but the region still accounts for only about
Changing levels of national savings15 affect wealth by
                                                                                                    14% of global private consumption 21.
making more or less funds available for future
investment. In 2009, world national savings as a




10	
      Economist	Intelligence	Unit,	January	2010                                                                   16	
                                                                                                                        Economist	Intelligence	Unit,	Regional	Data,	February	2010
11	
      Mark	Scott,	“Europe’s	Delicate	Dilemma”,	Bloomberg	Businessweek,	January	25,	2010                           17	
                                                                                                                        Ibid
12	
      Bank	of	England,	Official	Bank	Rate	statistics,	http://www.bankofengland.co.uk,	accessed	March	15,	2010     18	
                                                                                                                        Economist	Intelligence	Unit,	Country	Data,	January	2010
13	
      Federal	Reserve,	Federal	Funds	Rate	statistics,	http://www.federalreserve.gov,	accessed	March	15,	2010      19	
                                                                                                                        Economist	Intelligence	Unit,	Regional	Data,	February	2010
14	
      Bank	of	Japan,	Basic	Discount	Rate	statistics,	http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm,	accessed	March	15,	2010   20	
                                                                                                                        Ibid
15	
      National	Savings	=	GDP	–	[Private	Consumption	+	Government	Consumption]                                     21	
                                                                                                                        Ibid




                                                                                                                                        2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT                    11
2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT




 KEY MARKET AND OTHER DRIVERS OF WEALTH SHOWED STRONG GAINS IN 2009
 Strong gains were evident in 2009 in many aspects of                                                   Latin America. The strongest growth was seen in the
 market performance, another key driver of wealth. Major                                                BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations,
 asset classes (equities, fixed income, real estate and                                                 where market capitalization more than doubled.
 alternative investments) all rebounded after severe losses                                          ƒƒ Equity-marketƒvolatilityƒplungedƒfromƒrecordƒhighsƒinƒ
 in 2008. Commodities also posted substantial gains,                                                    2008,ƒbutƒremainsƒhigh. The rapid meltdown in
 while the performance of currencies remained heavily tied                                              equities in 2008 occurred amid record levels of
 to underlying economic performance.                                                                    volatility, but that volatility plunged in 2009, and has
                                                                                                        continued to drop in 2010. The daily volatility of the DJ
 Notable market developments during the year included                                                   World Index had sunk to 1.30% by end-2009 from
 the following:                                                                                         2.48% at the beginning of the year and 2.56% at its
 ƒƒ Globalƒequity-marketƒcapitalizationƒroseƒnearlyƒ                                                    peak in mid-September 2008 (see Figure 7). In
    47.1%ƒinƒ2009ƒtoƒreachƒUS$47.9ƒtrillion (see Figure                                                 early-2010, volatility declined further as crisis fears
    6). Global equity markets had collapsed in 2008,                                                    continued to fade, though as per mid-April, volatility
    when capitalization sank 48.6%, and dropped close to                                                levels still remained above those seen during the Asian
    2003 levels. In 2009, however, equity markets                                                       financial crisis and after the September 11th terrorist
    rebounded strongly, after an initial dip in Q1 2009, to                                             attacks in the U.S.
    end the year above 2005 levels. Global equity-market                                             ƒƒ Globalƒrealƒestateƒturnedƒpositive. The global real
    capitalization rose 47.1% to stand at US$47.9 trillion                                              estate market had suffered heavy losses in 2008, causing
    by the end of the year22. Short-term investors cashed                                               a drop of 49.2% in the DJ Global Select REIT Index 23.
    in on the attractive investment opportunities in                                                    In 2009, however, housing prices recovered moderately
    equities by taking advantage of the consistent upward                                               in most countries, largely due to government
    trend across indices. Market capitalization increased                                               intervention. Hong Kong posted the greatest gains,
    across all regions, but was led by Asia-Pacific and                                                 with housing prices up 20.8%24, helped in part by a




  FIGURE 6.     Market Capitalization, 2002 - 2009 (by Region)
 (US$ Trillion) Equity-Market Capitalization, 2002-2009 (by Region)
 FIGURE 6.


 (US$	Trillion)


                                                                  CAGR (’02-’07)                                                CAGR (’07-’08) CAGR (’08-’09)
                                                                     22.7%                                                        -48.6%          47.1%
             80

                                                                                                                                                           APAC:    73.6%
                                                                                                                             63.4                          EMEA:    38.0%
             60                                                                                                                                            Americas: 35.8%
                                                                                                         52.2
                                                                                                                                                          47.9
                                                                                     42.9
      US$ 40                                                     37.6                                                                                                   Asia-Paci c
     Trillion                                                                                                                               32.6
                                              31.5
                                                                                                                                                                        Europe /
                          22.8                                                                                                                                          Middle East /
             20                                                                                                                                                         Africa

                                                                                                                                                                        Americas


               0
                         2002                2003                2004                2005                2006               2007            2008          2009




 Source:	World	Federation	of	Exchanges,	March	2010


 22	
       World	Federation	of	Exchanges,	market	capitalization	statistics,	http://www.world-exchanges.org/statistics,	accessed	March	9,	2010
 23	
       Dow	Jones,	Dow	Jones	Global	Select	REIT	Index,	http://www.djindexes.com,	accessed	February	4,	2010
 24	
       Global	Property	Guide,	Variation	of	monthly	prices	adjusted	for	inflation	for	the	December	2008-	December	2009,	February	2010




12           2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT




      massive influx of buyers from mainland China. In the                                         Hedge funds received more than US$1 billion in net
      U.K., the recovery was mainly driven by low interest                                         investments in Q3 2009, experiencing the first quarter
      rates and a lack of supply. In the U.S., housing markets                                     of positive inflows since Q2 200827. This influx brought
      stabilized as the U.S. Federal Reserve drove interest                                        industry-wide assets to US$1.5 trillion. The Credit
      rates to 50-year lows, and in China, housing prices and                                      Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index posted a year-end
      sales were boosted by direct government intervention.                                        return of 18.6%28. In the near future, however, hedge
      The DJ Global Select REIT Index ended the year with                                          funds are likely to face a variety of challenges, including
      total returns of 32.2%, with Canada (86.4%) and                                              increased regulation and higher taxes.
      Singapore (83.7%) emerging as the top performers25.                                    ƒƒ TheƒUSƒdollarƒremainedƒvolatileƒduringƒtheƒyear.
      Although the residential real estate market has                                           Investors bought dollars in Q1 2009 amid demand for a
      managed to bounce back somewhat, the recovery could                                       safe haven while stocks remained in decline. By April,
      be hard to sustain without ongoing government                                             however, investors began to move away from the dollar
      intervention. Commercial real estate prices, meanwhile,                                   as central banks around the world stepped up efforts to
      are unlikely to recover broadly until there are substantial                               support their economies. The dollar’s slide was
      gains in drivers of commercial real estate demand, such                                   compounded by the relative weakness of the U.S.
      as job growth, rising incomes and private consumption,                                    economic recovery. By the fall, some countries including
      and widespread economic growth.                                                           Australia were even raising interest rates, while the U.S.
ƒƒ Hedgeƒfundsƒrecoupedƒmanyƒofƒtheirƒ2008ƒlosses.                                              Federal Reserve maintained key rates near zero.
   Hedge fund managers remained cautious at the                                                 Encouraged by the availability of cheap money,
   beginning of 2009 after assets plunged US$500 billion                                        investors borrowed dollars to buy stocks, gold,
   in 2008 from their end-2007 peak of US$1.9 trillion 26.                                      commodities and other currencies. In December,
   Many managers initially kept 50% to 60% of their                                             however, U.S. data on employment and retail sales were
   portfolios in cash, and some restricted redemptions,                                         surprisingly positive, while credit-rating agencies
   sparking an outcry among investors. However, hedge                                           painted a gloomy picture about some of the European
   funds reinvested as the markets stabilized, and                                              economies. This led to a slide in the euro by about 6.0%
   contributed to the resurgence in stocks and bonds.                                           against the dollar in just three weeks29. At the end of




FIGURE 7.              Daily Volatility of DJ World Index, January 1997 - April 2010
FIGURE 7.              Daily Volatility of DJ World Index, January, 1997-April, 2009
(%)
(%)


                                                                                                                                                             Q4 2008
                 3.0


                 2.5


                 2.0                                                                        Tech
                                                                                           Bubble
   Daily                                      Russian                    Sept 11,
  Volatility 1.5                               Crisis                     2001
   of DJ                       Asian
   World                     Debt Crisis
 Index (%) 1.0
                                                                                                                                                                            April 2010
                 0.5


                 0.0
                   Jan-97     Jan-98       Jan-99    Jan-00     Jan-01      Jan-02      Jan-03      Jan-04     Jan-05      Jan-06      Jan-07      Jan-08      Jan-09      Jan-10




Source:	Dow	Jones	World	(W1)	Index	–	Daily	close	values	from	January	1st,	1997	to	April	15th,	2010;	Capgemini	Analysis


25	
      Dow	Jones,	Dow	Jones	Global	Select	REIT	Index,	http://www.djindexes.com,	accessed	     28	
                                                                                                   Credit	Suisse/Tremont	Hedge	Fund	Index,	http://www.hedgeindex.com,	
      February	4,	2010                                                                             accessed	February	4,	2010
26	
      Jenny	Strasburg	and	Gregory	Zuckerman,	“Hedge	Funds	Regain	Some	Swagger”,	Wall	        29	
                                                                                                   Joanna	Slater,	“Up-and-Down	2009	for	Dollar”,	Wall Street Journal,	January	3,	2010
      Street	Journal,	January	4,	2010
27	
      Ibid


                                                                                                                                     2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT                            13
2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT




       the year, the dollar was up against the yen by 2.1%, but                                          demand, especially from emerging markets. Despite the
       was down against most major currencies, especially the                                            sustained gains of 2009, prices ended below the
       Brazilian real (-25.2%), Canadian dollar (-14.3%) and                                             US$145/barrel high reached in July 2008. That high
       British pound (-9.9%)30.                                                                          had been followed by a steep decline that left oil prices
 ƒƒ Commoditiesƒpostedƒstrongƒgainsƒinƒ2009,ƒbutƒcouldƒ                                                  sharply lower by the end of 2008. Analysts expect oil
    notƒwipeƒoutƒ2008ƒlosses. The Dow Jones-UBS                                                          prices to rise in 2010 as economies around the world
    Commodity Index (DJUBS) rose 18.7% in 2009,                                                          continue to stabilize.
    recouping only some of the 36.6% drop posted in                                                ƒƒ Goldƒpricesƒsoaredƒinƒ2009,ƒfuelledƒbyƒbroadƒinvestorƒ
    200831. The 2009 commodity rally was driven by metals                                             demand. Gold prices increased steadily throughout
    as hopes of a global economic recovery spurred demand,                                            2009, registering a total increase of 26.9% for the year36.
    and fears of inflation encouraged hedging. Copper                                                 The price of gold peaked in early-December at
    recorded gains of 139.0% as industrial demand soared,                                             US$1,212/oz, but dropped to US$1,104/oz at the end of
    and ended the year at US$3.3275/pound32, which was                                                the year amid profit-taking. Challenging economic
    around 18% less than the highs of 2008. Silver prices                                             conditions impacted industrial and jewelry demand for
    rose steadily to end 2009 with a gain of 57.5%33. Strong                                          gold, which dropped 16.0% and 20.0% respectively in
    demand from automakers increased demand for                                                       200937. However, gold saw hefty buying by funds and
    platinum, which is used in catalytic converters, and                                              individual investors alike, seeking insurance against
    lead, which is used in car batteries. Platinum prices rose                                        possible inflation and a declining dollar. The world’s
    63.3% to end the year at US$1,466/oz34, and lead more                                             biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased its
    than doubled in price to US$2,416 a metric ton.                                                   gold holdings by 45.0% to more than 1,133 metric
 ƒƒ Oilƒpricesƒended 2009 at US$79.4/barrel, a gain of                                                tons38 in 2009. Central banks around the world,
    78.0% on the year35. Prices more or less tracked the                                              especially those of China and India, were net buyers of
    economy, falling at the beginning of the year, before                                             gold in 2009 after decades of selling. Gold prices are
    moving higher as fears about the financial crisis began                                           likely to rise further in early 2010, but may face
    to ease. Prices also rose on expectations of long-term                                            downward pressure thereafter, due to expectations that
                                                                                                      interest rates will rise around the world.




 SUSTAINED GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY DEPENDS ON RETURN OF
 PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND CAREFUL HANDLING OF GOVERNMENT-
 STIMULUS WITHDRAWAL
 The global economy was supported by extraordinary                                                 sectors in numerous countries in early-2010, but that
 measures from governments around the world in 2009.                                               growth remains nascent. In fact, sustained global
 Central banks favored highly expansionary monetary                                                economic recovery will depend heavily on how well
 policies, with interest rates at record lows in many                                              governments manage their use of, and exit from, their
 countries, and fiscal stimulus was implemented to                                                 fiscal stimulus policies, and whether private
 support economic recovery. As a result, signs of                                                  consumption can re-emerge to drive a sustained
 economic resurgence were emerging in many key                                                     global recovery.




 30	
       Ozforex,	Historical	data	for	select	currencies	against	the	U.S.	dollar,	                    35	
                                                                                                         U.S.	Energy	Information	Administration,	Cushing,	OK	WTI	Spot	Price	FOB,	
       http://www.ozforex.com.au,	accessed	February	2,	2010                                              http://www.eia.doe.gov,	accessed	January	28,	2010
 31	
       Dow	Jones,	Dow	Jones	Commodity	Index	(DJUBS),	                                              36	
                                                                                                         Kitco,	London	PM	FIX	Prices,	http://www.kitco.com,	accessed	February	11,	2010
       http://www.djindexes.com,	accessed	January	29,	2010                                         37	
                                                                                                         World	Gold	Council,	“Gold	Demand	Trends:	Fourth	Quarter	and	Full	Year	2009”,	February	
 32	
       Carolyn	Cui,	“Metal	Rally	Has	Legs	to	Keep	Running”,	Wall	Street	Journal,	January	3,	2010         17,	2010
 33	
       Kitco,	London	PM	FIX	Prices,	http://www.kitco.com,	accessed	February	11,	2010               38	
                                                                                                         Carolyn	Cui,	“Metal	Rally	Has	Legs	to	Keep	Running”,	Wall	Street	Journal,	
 34	
       Ibid                                                                                              January	3,	2010




14            2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT




In the year ahead, there are numerous key economic                                                  return to vibrant private consumption, which depends
issues to watch, including the following:                                                           heavily on employment, overall consumer confidence
ƒƒ WorldƒGDPƒisƒforecastƒtoƒgrowƒinƒ2010ƒandƒ2011,ƒafterƒ                                           and spending, as well as income. Global unemployment
   contractingƒinƒ2009. Asia-Pacific excluding Japan is                                             grew 14.4% to 211.5 million in 200942, and is expected
   expected to show the strongest GDP growth of any                                                 to keep rising, but the employment recovery is expected
   region, with growth of 7.0% in 2010 and 6.4% in                                                  to be gradual, and companies are likely to try raising
   201139. That would outpace growth in the G7                                                      productivity before they add employees. Consumer
   developed nations. The region’s GDP growth is likely                                             confidence is rising from the lows of early-2009 but
   to be led by China and India, where independent                                                  remains tenuous. Given current conditions, private
   engines of growth, such as domestic consumption, are                                             consumption is expected to grow only mildly in 2010 in
   expected to be strong. In Latin America, the growth is                                           North America and Western Europe—which together
   expected to be led by Brazil, amid expanding credit,                                             account for more than 60% of global private
   strong demand for commodities and substantial capital                                            consumption. Other major contributors to global private
   inflows. The outlook for Russia is also promising,                                               consumption include Japan, Germany, the U.K., France
   as the country stands to benefit from higher prices                                              and China, which will all face similar issues within their
   for oil and base metals, especially if the global recovery                                       own economies. Each contributes from 3% to 9% to
   is sustained.                                                                                    global private consumption.
ƒƒ Financialƒconditionsƒareƒstillƒchallenging. The
                                                                                                 Beyond these major factors, numerous other issues have
   tightening of bank lending standards has moderated
                                                                                                 the potential to restrain world growth. They include fears
   somewhat, but bank lending is likely to remain sluggish
                                                                                                 of inflation, especially in Europe, and spillover from
   as banks wait to see the extent of additional loan
                                                                                                 problems in individual institutions or countries. In
   write-offs. Corporate bond issuance increased
                                                                                                 early-2010, for example, the fiscal crisis in Greece and the
   significantly following a rebound in equity markets, but
                                                                                                 effective default of one of Dubai’s largest government-
   those issues have not been able to make up for the
                                                                                                 owned companies offered sobering reminders that
   scaling back of new bank lending to the private sector40.
                                                                                                 unforeseen problems can quickly undermine consumer
   Sovereign debt ratings have come under pressure in
                                                                                                 and business confidence and restrain growth if not
   some countries struggling with large government
                                                                                                 credibly managed.
   deficits and debts. Cross-border bank financing is still
   contracting in some regions, and is likely to affect
                                                                                                 Going forward, then, governments around the world will
   domestic credit growth.
                                                                                                 be juggling several challenges, including the need to
ƒƒ Howƒandƒwhenƒgovernmentsƒwithdrawƒstimulusƒwillƒbeƒ                                           maintain appropriate fiscal stimulus and support healthy
   critical. If governments exit their supportive policies                                       growth, the imperative to correct unhealthy economic
   prematurely, they are likely to undermine global                                              imbalances, and the need to nurture the conditions
   growth. In fact, the immediate withdrawal of stimulus                                         necessary to encourage private consumption. Regulatory
   measures could increase the chances of an economic                                            reform will present additional challenges to markets and
   recession similar to that seen in the U.S. in 1937 and in                                     economies. Governments around the world are each
   Japan in 199741. Conversely, if governments overly                                            considering and implementing reform measures, but the
   prolong stimulus, it could inflate fiscal deficits to                                         financial crisis proved that global economies are now
   unmanageable levels, and undermine the prospects for                                          highly interdependent, and attempts to coordinate
   long-term growth.                                                                             international supervisory frameworks and market
ƒƒ Returnƒofƒvibrantƒprivateƒconsumptionƒisƒessential. The                                       regulations will continue for some time. Specific reform
   global economy is showing clear signs of recovery, but                                        measures, and the speed with which they are executed,
   that revival is still underpinned by the effects of                                           has the potential to impact investors, markets and
   government stimulus. A sustained recovery will require a                                      economies significantly.




39	
      Economist	Intelligence	Unit,	Regional	Data,	April	2010	
40	
      International	Monetary	Fund,	“World	Economic	Outlook	Update:	A	Policy-Driven	Multispeed	Recovery”,	January	26,	2010
41	
      Ibid
42	
      International	Labour	Organization,	“Global	Employment	Trends”,	Geneva,	January	2010




                                                                                                                            2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT             15
HNWIsReturned to Markets
HNWIs Warily Warily
Returned to Markets
in 2009 in Cautious Pursuit of Returns
 ƒ HNW investors cautiously returned to the markets in 2009 as fears over the financial crisis eased. However, they
   favored predictable returns and cash flow, as evidenced by the rise in HNWI allocations to fixed-income instruments, to
   31% from 29%. Equity holdings also rose, to 29% from 25%, as the world’s stock markets recovered. Cash holdings
   declined slightly.
 ƒ HNWIs overall had proportionally more invested outside their home regions by the end of 2009 than they had a
   year earlier. This shift countered a widespread trend toward asset repatriation to home regions during the crisis. The
   decline in home-region investments was most marked in Europe, where such holdings dropped to 59% of overall
   portfolios from 65% in 2008. Among Latin American HNWIs, by contrast, home-region allocations were up 3
   percentage points to 47%. In general, HNWIs’ allocations to emerging markets rose overall, and to Asia-Pacific in
   particular, as investments flowed to regions and markets expected to have the most growth in the coming years.
 ƒ By 2011, HNWIs are expected to further reduce their home-region investments, and look to those regions in
   which growth is expected to be more robust. North American HNWIs, who have typically held a large portion of
   assets in their own region, are shifting those allocations to become more geographically diversified. They are gravitating
   in particular toward regions in which growth is anticipated, especially Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Home-region
   allocations are also expected to drop among Europe’s HNWIs, who are also likely to invest more in Asia-Pacific.




 HNWIS SOUGHT TO RECOUP LOSSES IN 2009, BUT TOOK A MEASURED APPROACH
 As projected in the last WWR, HNW investors began to                                                ƒ Of global HNWI assets, 31% were held in fixed-income
 regain their appetite for risk in 2009, especially as the year                                        instruments by the end of 2009, up from 29% in 2008.
 wore on and the global economy showed signs of recovery.                                              This reflected the crisis-driven desire to secure
 As a result, there was a tentative but tangible shift in                                              predictable cash flows. The Barclays Capital Global
 HNWI asset allocations, both in aggregate and by region.                                              Aggregate Bond Index returned 9% on the year.
                                                                                                     ƒ Globally, equities accounted for 29% of total HNWI
 HNWIs’ Exposure to Equities and Fixed-Income                                                          financial assets at the end of 2009, up from 25% a year
 Increased as Crisis Fears Abated                                                                      earlier as many of the world’s stock markets recovered
 The proportion of HNWI assets held in equities increased                                              sharply. Global market capitalization rose to US$47.9
 slightly in 2009. At the same time, the share held in                                                 trillion in 2009 from US$32.6 trillion in 2008, up 47% 43.
 fixed-income rose, and cash-based holdings dropped,                                                 ƒ Equity holdings among European HNWIs rose from
 suggesting that while HNWIs were keen to pursue                                                       21% of total assets in 2008 to 26% in 2009 as European
 returns and recoup some of their 2008 losses, they also                                               stock market capitalization grew by 38% 44. Among
 valued predictability in returns and cash flows.                                                      North American HNWIs, who have long favored
                                                                                                       equities as an asset class, equity holdings edged up from
 More specifically, a number of tangible shifts in the                                                 34% of total holdings in 2008 to 36% in 2009 as stock
 worldwide portfolio of HNWI financial assets occurred                                                 values rose. North American HNWIs remain far more
 in 2009 (see Figure 8), including the following:                                                      heavily invested in equities than the 29% global average.

 43	
       World	Federation	of	Exchanges,	Market	capitalization	statistics,	http://www.world-exchanges.org/statistics,	accessed	March	9,	2010
 44	
       Ibid




16            2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
HNWIS WARILY RETURNED TO MARKETS IN 2009 IN CAUTIOUS PURSUIT OF RETURNS




 FIGURE 8.            Breakdown of HNWI Financial Assets, 2006-2011F
FIGURE 8.             Breakdown of HNWI Financial Assets, 2006-2011F
    (%)
(%)
                     100
                                  10%                9%                7%             6%                            8%

                                                    14%               18%            18%                           14%
                                  24%
                       75                                                                                                                                   Alternative Investmentsa
                                                                                                                   13%
                                                    17%                              17%
                                                                      21%                                                                                   Real Estateb
                                  14%
          %            50                                                                                          31%                                      Cash / Deposits
                                                    27%
                                                                                     31%
                                  21%                                 29%                                                                                   Fixed Income

                                                                                                                                                            Equities
                       25

                                  31%               33%                                                            35%
                                                                      25%            29%


                        0
                                  2006              2007              2008           2009                         2011F


a
 	Includes	structured	products,	hedge	funds,	derivatives,	foreign	currency,	commodities,	private	equity,	venture	capital
b
 	Comprises	commercial	real	estate,	real	estate	investment	trusts	(REITs),	residential	real	estate	(excluding	primary	residence),	undeveloped	property,	farmland	and	other
Source:	Capgemini/Merrill	Lynch	Financial	Advisor	Surveys	2007,	2008,	2009,	2010




ƒ HNWIs from Latin America and Japan remained the                                                     Benchmark Index grew 23.8%. That index remains
  most conservative, with HWNIs in each region holding                                                far below the highs of 2007, though46.
  52% of their aggregate portfolios in either cash/deposits                                     HNWIs in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan still have the
  or fixed-income, despite surging equities prices.                                             world’s highest allocation to real estate investment
  However, this is not unusual for Latin American                                               overall, and to residential real estate in particular, after an
  HNWIs, who typically hold a higher percentage of                                              exponential boom in real estate investment in recent
  assets in fixed income than HNWIs in other regions.                                           years. Direct real estate investment in the region jumped
                                                                                                56% year-on-year in the second half of 2009 to an
By 2011, aggregate allocations to equities are expected to                                      estimated US$25 billion47. By end-2009, 28% of the
rise to 35% of HNWI holdings, with fixed-income                                                 assets held by the region’s HNWIs were in real estate.
holdings steady at around 31%, as HNWIs regain their
risk appetite but seek to strike a balance in their portfolios.                                 HNWIs in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan also had the
                                                                                                greatest proportional exposure to residential real estate
Residential Real Estate Regained Some                                                           (60% of all real-estate investments). For many in that
of Its Appeal for HNWIs in 2009                                                                 region, residential property remains a highly attractive
                                                                                                investment because tight supply and strong demand
Overall, the proportion of HNWI assets dedicated to real                                        endure in most prime locations. The price of luxury
estate remained unchanged at 18% in 2009, after                                                 residences in Asia-Pacific grew by 17.1% in 2009, with
increasing in 2008, when HNWIs showed a preference                                              prices in cities like Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing
for tangible assets and sought to capture some bargains as                                      surging by more than 40% 48, reaching record global
real-estate prices slumped. More specifically, though:                                          levels49. In North America, luxury real estate sales began
ƒ Of all real-estate assets, the share dedicated to                                             to recover, particularly in the secondary-home market,
  residential real estate45 rose—to 48% from 45%—as                                             but sales still predominate at the lower end of the luxury
  prices recovered across much of the globe.                                                    market, as investors look for value and bargains50.
ƒ Commercial real estate holdings dipped slightly to
                                                                                                In the Middle East, HNWI holdings of real estate
  27% from 28% as the sector experienced falling rental
                                                                                                dropped to 23% of all investments from 25% in 2008
  incomes, weak demand and increased supply.
                                                                                                as hotspots such as Dubai experienced a major slump
ƒ REIT holdings increased to 12% from 10% of all                                                in demand.
  HNWI real-estate assets as the Global REIT


45	
      Not	including	primary	residence                                                           48	
                                                                                                      Knight	Frank,	“The	Wealth	Report	2010”,	http://www.knightfrank.com
46	
      Dow	Jones,	Dow	Jones	Global	Select	REIT	Index,	http://www.djindexes.com,	                 49	
                                                                                                      Kay	Coughlin,	President	&	CEO,	Christie’s	Great	Estates.	interview	by	Capgemini,	April	2010
      accessed	February	4,	2010                                                                 50	
                                                                                                      Ibid
47	
      CB	Richard	Ellis,	“Asia	Investment	MarketView	2H	2009”,	http://cbre.com



                                                                                                                                          2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT                                  17
HNWIS WARILY RETURNED TO MARKETS IN 2009 IN CAUTIOUS PURSUIT OF RETURNS




 Commercial real estate was held in the highest proportions                                            Commodities also accounted for a larger share of the
 by HNWIs in Europe. However, those holdings—32% of                                                    aggregate alternative investment HNWI portfolio in
 all their real-estate investments vs. the global average of                                           2009—16% vs. 13% in 2008. That amount was boosted in
 27%—reflected an inability to shed assets in the illiquid                                             particular by HNWIs buying gold as insurance against
 markets more than a desire to be heavily invested in                                                  possible inflation and dollar weakness. The price of gold
 commercial interests.                                                                                 rose 27% in 2009, its ninth straight year of gains. HNWIs
                                                                                                       from North America have a much higher-than-average
 Ultra-HNWIs again held more of their real estate holdings                                             allocation to commodities (24%), but they also have access
 in commercial real estate than HNWIs did overall in 2009                                              to a wider array of commodity-based instruments, such as
 (32% of the total vs. 27%), while holding less in residential                                         exchange traded funds, so have more opportunities to buy.
 real estate (45% vs. 48%).
                                                                                                       Foreign currency investment comprised only 13% of
 Farmland and undeveloped property, meanwhile,                                                         overall HNWI alternative investment allocations, but
 comprised 6% and 8% respectively of aggregate global                                                  that proportion was much greater among HNWIs in
 HNWI real estate portfolios in 2009, little changed from                                              Japan (28%) and higher too among HNWIs in the rest of
 2008. However, the Farmland allocation was much higher                                                Asia (20%) and the Middle East (20%) as HNWIs
 (23%) in Latin America, where a significant amount of                                                 sought to hedge against local currency fluctuations.
 wealth has traditionally been derived from agricultural
 businesses, and the undeveloped land allocation was much                                              The share of alternative investments dedicated to
 higher in the Middle East (21%), where such land has been                                             structured products was little changed in 2009 at 20% as
 in speculative demand amid the real-estate boom.                                                      HNWIs continued to hold the type of structured vehicles
                                                                                                       that offer capital guarantees (not the more complex,
 HNWI holdings of real-estate investment trusts (REITs)                                                opaque structures that contributed to the financial crisis)
 rose in 2009 to 12% of all HNWI real-estate assets from                                               and sought to capture superior returns to conventional
 10% as the Global REIT Benchmark Index grew 23.8%.                                                    fixed-income investments. Among Japanese HNWIs, in
 That index remains far below the highs of 2007, though51.                                             fact, structured products are the single most popular form
                                                                                                       of alternative investment as they offer the potential for
 REIT holdings are proportionally higher among HNWIs in                                                yield when prevailing interest rates are low.
 North America and Japan, where REIT returns have been
 relatively attractive and the product itself is more readily                                          Geographical Diversification Was Evident
 available and more familiar to investors. The U.S. High                                               in HNWI Asset Shifts in 2009
 Total Returns on All REITs Index rose 27.4% in 2009, and                                              The geographic distribution of HNWI assets also shifted
 the average dividend yield on J-REITs was 6.8% vs. 1.3% for                                           in 2009 while HNWIs generally sought higher returns
 the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB)52.                                                         and greater geographic diversification in their portfolios
                                                                                                       (see Figure 9).
 HNWI Holdings in Hedge Funds Rose though
 Alternative Investments Held Steady Overall                                                           The following trends were especially notable:
 HNWIs’ holdings of alternative investments were little                                                ƒ HNWIs in all regions except Latin America increased
 changed overall in 2009 at 6% of the aggregate portfolio vs.                                            the relative share of holdings in markets outside their
 7% in 2008. However, allocations to hedge funds rose to                                                 home regions in 2009. European HNWIs had 41% of
 27% of the alternative-investment total from 24% as the                                                 their holdings in investments outside Europe, up 6
 hedge fund industry recovered from its dismal performance                                               percentage points from 2008, marking the largest such
 in 2008. The Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index                                                     shift. The underlying trend was similar among HNWIs
 posted an 18.6% return in 2009.                                                                         in North America, who reduced their home-region
                                                                                                         holdings by 5 percentage points to 76%. Even Asia-
 Among HNWIs from Latin America, hedge funds clearly                                                     Pacific HNWIs sought opportunity outside their own
 dominate alternative-investment holdings and accounted                                                  thriving region, reducing home-region allocations by 4
 for 49% of all such holdings in 2009, when the                                                          percentage points to 54%.
 Eurekahedge Latin American Hedge Fund Index rose                                                      ƒ HNWIs’ allocations to emerging markets rose overall.
 26.9%. The picture is similar in Europe, where HNWIs                                                    Of global HNWI holdings, the amount dedicated to
 held 32% of alternative investments in hedge funds in 2009                                              Asia-Pacific investments rose to 22% of aggregate
 when the Eurekahedge Europe Index returned 21.85%.
 51	
       Dow	Jones,	Dow	Jones	Global	Select	REIT	Index,	http://www.djindexes.com,	accessed	February	4,	2010
 52	
       Dow	Jones,	Dow	Jones	Global	Select	REIT	Index,	http://www.djindexes.com,	accessed	February	4,	2010,	CB	Richard	Ellis,	“Asia	Investment	MarketView	2H	2009”,	http://cbre.com




18           2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
World Wealth Report 2010
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World Wealth Report 2010

  • 2. State of the World’s Wealth 4 2009 in Review: Many Drivers of Wealth Rebounded, 9 but Economic Recovery is Still Nascent HNWIs Warily Returned to Markets in 2009 16 in Cautious Pursuit of Returns HNWIs Cautiously Returned to Passion Investments in 2009 20 HNWI Demand for Philanthropy-related Advisory 23 Services is Rising Spotlight: Crisis has Clearly Shifted Investor Psyche, 25 and Wealth Managment Firms are Responding Post-Crisis, Client Expectations Have Clearly Shifted; 25 Firms are Adapting Developing a Deeper Understanding of Investor Psychology 28 will Help Firms and Advisors Deal With a More Volatile and Less Certain Environment More Mainstream use of Behavioral Finance Approaches 29 Will Have a Signficant Impact Across Service Delivery Models and Platforms Many Firms are Already Adapting Advisory Processes 30 and Operating Models to Integrate Behavior into HNWI Investing Strategies While Behavioral Finance is Relevant for all Firms, 32 the Degree to Which Firms Seek to Transform will Vary A Path Forward for the Industry 34 Appendix A: Methodology 35 Appendix B: Select Country Breakdown 37
  • 3. World Wealth Report TO OUR READERS, Capgemini and Merrill Lynch Global Wealth Management are pleased to present the 2010 World Wealth Report. Our two firms have been working together for more than 20 years to study the macroeconomic and other factors that drive wealth creation, and to better understand the key trends that affect high net worth individuals (HNWIs) around the globe. The last couple of years have been momentous for wealthy investors and their Advisors. At this time last year, we were analyzing the dramatic effects of the financial crisis, which was quickly turning into a global economic downturn. World equity markets had lost a decade of gains, and volatility had reached record levels. HNWIs were re-allocating to safer investments and retreating to familiar markets close to home, and Financial Advisors were rallying to restore client trust and confidence. A year later, many markets are recovering well and the broader economy, after contracting across much of the world in 2009, is showing distinct signs of recovery. The HNWI population itself has started growing again, and HNWI wealth is also recovering. But it is clear from HNWIs’ asset allocations that they are taking a cautious approach to investing and risk-taking. Moreover, it seems the lessons learned from the crisis have changed the way HNW clients will think about investing for the foreseeable future. Clients are now much more involved in managing their investment choices, asking for more specialized advice, demanding full product disclosure and transparency. They are more educated about investing and about their own needs. They now understand that when weighing potential returns, they must weigh the risks more thoroughly. This year’s World Wealth Report (WWR) looks at how wealth-management firms are adapting to behavior-driven investing by clients, and are re-evaluating their advisory processes, risk models and service offerings to cater effectively to HNW clients in this new paradigm. It is a pleasure to provide you with our findings, and we hope you find continued value in the WWR’s insights. Sallie Krawcheck Bertrand Lavayssière President, Global Wealth Managing Director & Investment Management Global Financial Services Bank of America Capgemini
  • 4. State of the World’s Wealth State of the World’s Wealth ƒ The world’s population of high net worth individuals (HNWIs1) grew 17.1% to 10.0 million in 2009, returning to levels last seen in 2007 despite the contraction in world gross domestic product (GDP). Global HNWI wealth similarly recovered, rising 18.9% to US$39.0 trillion, with HNWI wealth in Asia-Pacific and Latin America actually surpassing levels last seen at the end of 2007. ƒ For the first time ever, the size of the HNWI population in Asia-Pacific was as large as that of Europe (at 3.0 million). This shift in the rankings occurred because HNWI gains in Europe, while sizeable, were far less than those in Asia-Pacific, where the region’s economies saw continued robust growth in both economic and market drivers of wealth. ƒ The wealth of Asia-Pacific HNWIs stood at US$9.7 trillion by the end of 2009, up 30.9%, and above the US$9.5 trillion in wealth held by Europe’s HNWIs. Among Asia-Pacific markets, Hong Kong and India led the pack, rebounding from mammoth declines in their HNWI bases and wealth in 2008 amid an outsized resurgence in their stock markets. ƒ The global HNWI population nevertheless remains highly concentrated. The U.S., Japan and Germany still accounted for 53.5% of the world’s HNWI population at the end of 2009, down only slightly from 54.0% in 2008. Australia became the tenth largest home to HNWIs, after overtaking Brazil, due to a considerable rebound. ƒ After losing 24.0% in 2008, Ultra-HNWIs2 saw wealth rebound 21.5% in 2009. At the end of 2009, Ultra- HNWIs accounted for 35.5% of global HNWI wealth, up from 34.7%, while representing only 0.9% of the global HNWI population, the same as in 2008. HNWI SEGMENT RECOUPED SIGNIFICANT GROUND IN 2009 Globally, the HNWI Segment Regained Ground time, after falling 14.2% in 2008. Seven countries despite Weakness in the World Economy within the region actually saw their HNWI populations recover beyond 2007 levels. The world’s population of HNWIs grew 17.1% in 2009 (see Figure 1), nearly recovering the unprecedented ƒ Asia-Pacific HNWI wealth surged 30.9% to US$9.7 declines of 2008 even though the global economy trillion, more than erasing 2008 losses and surpassing contracted (see 2009 in Review). HNWI financial wealth the US$9.5 trillion in wealth held by Europe’s HNWIs. also grew, posting a gain of 18.9% to US$39.0 trillion (see ƒ After falling 19.0% in 2008, the HNWI population in Figure 2). The star performer was Asia-Pacific, the only North America rebounded, gaining 16.6% in 2009. region in which both macroeconomic and market drivers HNWI wealth there rose 17.8% to US$10.7 trillion. of wealth expanded significantly in 2009. North America remains the single largest home to HNWIs, with its 3.1 million HNWIs accounting for Regional findings show: 31% of the global HNWI population. ƒ The Asia-Pacific HNWI population rose 25.8% overall to 3.0 million, catching up with Europe for the first 1 HNWIs are defined as those having investable assets of US$1 million or more, excluding primary residence, collectibles, consumables, and consumer durables 2 Ultra-HNWIs are defined as those having investable assets of US$30 million or more, excluding primary residence, collectibles, consumables, and consumer durables 4 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
  • 5. STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH FIGURE 1. HNWI Population, 2006 – 2009 (by Region) FIGURE 1. HNWI Population, 2006 – 2009 (by Region) (Million) (In Million) CAGR 2006-2008 -5.0% Annual Growth 2008-2009 17.1% 9.5 10.1 8.6 10.0 0.1 0.1 10 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.4 8 2.8 0.4 3.0 % Change Total HNWI Population 2.6 2008-2009 Number of 2.4 6 Africa 13.2% HNWIs Worldwide 3.0 3.1 Middle East 7.1% (in Million) 3.0 4 2.6 Latin America 8.3% Asia-Paci c 25.8% 2 3.2 3.3 3.1 2.7 Europe 12.5% North America 16.6% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: Chart numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2010 FIGURE 2. HNWI Wealth Distribution, 2006 – 2009 (by Region) FIGURE 2. HNWI Wealth Distribution, 2006 – 2009 (by Region) (US$ Trillion) (US$ Trillion) CAGR 2006-2008 -6.2% Annual Growth 2008-2009 18.9% 37.2 40.7 32.8 39.0 50 1.0 40 1.7 1.0 0.9 1.5 % Change Total HNWI Wealth 1.4 6.2 2008-2009 0.8 6.7 Global 5.1 1.4 30 Africa 20.2% HNWI 5.8 9.5 Wealth 8.4 9.7 Middle East 5.1% (in US$ 7.4 Trillion) 20 Latin America 15.0% 10.1 10.7 9.5 8.3 Asia-Paci c 30.9% 10 Europe 14.2% 11.3 11.7 10.7 9.1 North America 17.8% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 Note: Chart numbers may not add up due to rounding Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2010 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT 5
  • 6. STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH ƒ The size and wealth of Europe’s HNWI population from 54.0% in 2008 (see Figure 3). And beyond that, the grew in 2009, though moderately. Europe’s HNWI HNWI ranks remained spread across the globe in much population rose 12.5% to 3.0 million after dropping the same proportions in 2009 as they had been in 2008. 14.4% in 2008. HNWI wealth increased 14.2% to US$9.5 trillion after losing 21.9% in 2008. Asia-Pacific HNWIs, Hit Especially Hard ƒ The HNWI population in Latin America grew 8.3% to in 2008, Led Recovery in 2009 0.5 million, while HNWI wealth in the region jumped Several Asia-Pacific countries experienced greater-than- 15%. While the percentage recovery in Latin America average growth in their HWNI populations in 2009. In in 2009 was not as big as in Asia-Pacific, Latin fact, the region was home to eight of the world’s ten American HNWI wealth is now 8% greater than in fastest-growing HNWI populations. Hong Kong and 2007, while wealth among Asia-Pacific HNWIs has India led the pack, after experiencing mammoth declines grown just 2% during that time. in their HNWI bases in 2008. ƒ In 2009, Middle East HNWI population and wealth grew by only 7.1% and 5.1% respectively, as the region In Hong Kong, the rebound followed a sharp resurgence was impacted by the Dubai crisis. in the stock market, where market capitalization surged 73.5% in 2009 after falling about 50% the previous year. While the global HNWI recovery was generally stronger Market capitalization is a powerful driver of wealth in in emerging and developing nations than in mature ones, Hong Kong, which has a very high market-cap-to- most of the world’s HNWI population and wealth nominal-GDP ratio. (Market capitalization is almost 11 remains highly concentrated in three countries. The U.S., times that of GDP, compared with the global average of Japan and Germany together accounted for 53.5% of the 0.8 times.) That ratio makes Hong Kong particularly world’s HNWI population in 2009, down only slightly FIGURE 3. HNWI Population by Country, 2009 FIGURE 3. HNWI Population by Country, 2009 (Thousand) (in Thousands) 2008 2009 HNWI Growth Rate (%) 16.5% 20.8% 6.4% 31.0% 23.8% 10.8% 17.9% 19.7% 9.2% 34.4% 11.9% 12.5% 2008-2009 3000 2,866 2,460 2500 53.5% of total worldwide HNWI population 2000 (54% in 2008) Number 1,650 of HNWIs 1500 1,366 (in thousands) Australia moved 1000 810 861 back to 10th position by overtaking Brazil 477 448 500 365 362 346 383 251 213 185 222 164 179 129174 131147 127 143 0 US Japan Germany China UK France Canada Switzerland Italy Australia Brazil Spain Position 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 11 10 12 in 2008 Source: Capgemini Lorenz curve analysis, 2010 6 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
  • 7. STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH vulnerable to losses in wealth when the market declines as Not All of 2008’s Big Losers Recouped it did in 2008, but also produces outsized gains in wealth Their Losses in 2009 when stock prices rise. Notably, not all the hefty losers of 2008 were able to recover the lion’s share of their losses. In many cases, the Hong Kong also has a very large proportion of HNWIs rebounds were tempered by underlying macroeconomic in the US$1 million-US$5 million wealth band, so many concerns. had been quickly relegated to the “mass affluent”3 bracket during the losses of 2008—and many were just For example: as quickly promoted back to HNWI status when asset prices rose in 2009. ƒ The HNWI population grew strongly in the U.K. (23.8%) and in Russia (21.3%), but those gains did As a result of these dynamics—and given the low base at not come close to recouping the losses of 2008. In which HNWI population numbers stood after the 2008 both cases, stock market capitalization surged, but losses—Hong Kong’s HNWI population posted a gain of was apparently more than offset by the effects of the 104.4% in 2009. This was by far the strongest rebound in contracting economy. GDP shrank by 5.0% in the the world but since it followed a 61.3% decline in 2008, U.K. and by 7.9% in Russia, while the stock markets the number of HNWIs at the end of 2009 was still only rose 49.6% and 103.6% respectively. 79% of the number at the end of 2007. ƒ Some countries, such as Ukraine, Turkey and Greece, are experiencing persistent weakness in their markets and In India, the HNWI population grew 50.9% in 2009. economies. Greece is a prime example, and its HNWI India also has a relatively high market-cap-to-GDP ratio population continued to decline in 2009 (by 1.2%). (two times GDP) and its stock-market capitalization ƒ Similarly, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) lost around more than doubled in 2009, after dropping 64.1% in 19% of its HNWI population in 2009, mainly due to the 2008. The recovery was also underpinned, however, by crisis in Dubai and the significant fall (-48.0%) in real the strong outlook for India’s underlying economy. estate prices. China remained the world’s fourth largest HNWI base, Ultra-HNWI Segment Showed Outsized Gains with 477,000 HNWIs, up 31.0%. Stock market capitalization in China soared more than 100% in 2009, in Ranks and Wealth as the economy grew at a rapid 8.7% pace. Ultra-HNWIs increased their wealth by a striking 21.5% in 2009, far more than the average in the HNWI segment as a Australia, meanwhile, moved back up to tenth position in whole. This resurgence followed a mammoth 24.0% loss in the HNWI-population rankings, overtaking Brazil, after wealth for Ultra-HNWIs on aggregate in 2008, and was many of those who had fallen into the “mass affluent” most likely due to a more effective re-allocation of assets. category in 2008 regained their HNWI status. In Australia, HNWIs in the lowest (US$1 million-US$5 A disproportionate amount of wealth remained million) wealth band account for 55.4% of all HNWI concentrated in the hands of Ultra-HNWIs. At the end wealth, so far more HNWIs fall out of the HNWI of 2009, Ultra-HNWIs represented only 0.9% of the category when wealth declines than is the case in global HNWI population, but accounted for 35.5% of Brazil—where a staggering 87% of HNWI wealth lies in global HNWI wealth. That was up slightly from 34.7% the hands of Ultra-HNWIs. in 2008. 3 Individuals with investable assets of US$100,000 to US$1,000,000 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT 7
  • 8. STATE OF THE WORLD’S WEALTH North America still has the largest regional will continue to lead the way, with economic expansion concentration of Ultra-HNWIs. At the end of 2009, the and growth likely to keep outpacing more developed number of Ultra-HNWIs there totaled 36.3k (see Figure economies. The region’s HNWI growth is likely to be 4), up from 30.6k in 2008, but that was still down the fastest in the world as a result. In Latin America, sharply from 41.2k in 2007. Regionally, Latin America Brazil is similarly expected to remain an engine of still has the highest percentage of Ultra-HNWIs relative growth. Russia is also expected to display strength due to to the overall HNWI population—2.4%, compared with its commodity-rich resource base. the global average of 0.9%. However, HNWI-wealth creation is always driven by a Asia-Pacific will Likely be the Powerhouse of mixture of economic and market factors, and 2009 HNWI Growth in Coming Years suggests macroeconomic concerns can contain upside HNWI performance, even when market performance is On aggregate, the number and wealth of HNWIs around stellar. Around the globe, then, the creation of HNWIs the world recovered significantly in 2009, but Asia- and wealth is likely to depend heavily on the success each Pacific was the showcase, thanks to a solid performance country has in managing the nascent economic recovery in both the economic and market drivers of wealth. while driving expansion and handling ongoing domestic Going forward, the BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, and and global challenges in financial conditions. China) nations are expected to again be the drivers for their respective regions. In Asia-Pacific, China and India FIGURE 4. Geographic Distribution of HNWIs and Ultra-HNWIs, 2009 (by Region) FIGURE 4. Geographic Distribution of HNWIs and Ultra-HNWIs, 2009 (by Region) (%) (%) 10.0 93.1 10 0.1 100 0.4 0.4 2.0 3.6 10.7 8 80 3.0 Ultra-HNWIs as % of HNWIs, 2009 19.6 Number of Number of 6 60 Africa 1.9% HNWIs Ultra-HNWIs Worldwide Worldwide 20.7 Middle East 0.9% (in Million) 2.9 (in Thousand) 4 40 Latin America 2.4% Asia-Paci c 0.7% 2 36.3 20 3.1 Europe 0.7% North America 1.2% 0 0 HNWI Ultra-HNWI Note: Chart numbers may not add up due to rounding Ultra-HNWIs are defined as those having investable assets of US$30 million or more, excluding primary residence, collectibles, consumables, and consumer durables Source: Capgemini Lorenz Curve Model; Capgemini World Wealth Report 2009 8 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
  • 9. 2009 in Review 2009 in Review: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT ƒ World gross domestic product (GDP) contracted 2% in 2009, as the effects of the global financial crisis worked their way deeply into the fundamentals of the global economy. Europe was hit hardest, with GDP shrinking by 4.1% in Western Europe and by 3.7% in Eastern Europe. In Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, however, there was positive GDP growth of 4.5%. ƒ Governments around the world stepped up efforts to stimulate economic recovery and support the financial system. Governments implemented a wide array of measures to try and keep their economies from sliding into recession as financial conditions remained challenging. Those efforts included fiscal stimulus by many nations, but most sizably by the U.S. and China. ƒ Key drivers of wealth experienced strong gains. Many of the world’s stock markets recovered, and global market capitalization grew to US$47.9 trillion in 2009 from US$32.6 trillion in 2008, up nearly 47%. Commodities prices dropped early in the year, but rebounded sharply to end the year up nearly 19%. Hedge funds were also able to recoup many of their 2008 losses. ƒ The global economic recovery remains nascent. World GDP growth is likely to be positive in 2010-11 and is expected to be led by Asia-Pacific excluding Japan. However, sustained economic recovery is contingent upon the timely withdrawal of government stimulus along with the return of growth in private consumption. WORLD ECONOMY CONTRACTED IN 2009, BUT ASIA-PACIFIC KEPT GROWING World GDP Contracted in 2009, Hit by the Europe and Latin America was primarily due to the drop Effects of the Global Financial Crisis in exports and reduction in industrial production (manufacturing, mining and utilities). However, World GDP contracted 2.0% in 20094, after growth of economic growth was evident in some parts of the world. 1.8% in 2008, as the fundamentals of the global economy GDP grew 4.5% in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan, helped were gripped by the effects of the global financial crisis. In in particular by strong GDP growth of 8.7% in China Western Europe, GDP shrank 4.1% in 2009, driven and 6.8% in India6 (see Figure 5). GDP also expanded by primarily by Germany and the U.K. Eastern Europe and 1.4% in the Middle East and North Africa7. Latin America were also hit hard, and GDP contracted by 3.7% and 2.3% respectively5. The GDP contraction in 4 Economist Intelligence Unit, Regional Data, April 2010 6 Ibid 5 Ibid 7 Ibid 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT 9
  • 10. 2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT FIGURE 5. FIGURE 5. Real GDP Growth Rates Real GDP Growth Rates, 2008-2009 (%) (%) 2008 2009 10 9.6 8.7 6.8 6.1 5.6 5.0 5.1 5 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 Percent 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.3 Change 0 (%) -0.2 -1.2 -2.2 -2.0 -2.6 -2.4 -5 -5.0 -5.0 -5.2 -6.6 -7.9 -10 Canada US Germany UK France Russia Poland Japan Singapore India China Mexico Brazil North Western Europe Eastern Asia-Paci c Latin America Europe America Source: Economist Intelligence Unit – April 2010. Real GDP variation over previous year. Fiscal Stimulus Worldwide Sought to Stave extreme, Italy’s discretionary fiscal stimulus amounted Off Recession to just 0.1% of GDP 9. In absolute terms, the largest fiscal stimulus was implemented by the U.S. (US$787 At the start of 2009, the effects of the global financial billion), followed by China (US$586 billion). In the crisis were becoming starkly evident in many weak U.S., stimulus spending was directed primarily at economic indicators. Aggregate demand was in sharp immediate tax relief and direct aid to states and decline across the world, and most countries had only individuals, as well as infrastructure-spending limited room to reduce short-term interest rates to drive provisions thought to buoy longer-term investment in demand. To keep their economies from sliding into projects such as high-speed rail, health technology, recession, or at least to limit the downside, many broadband, a smart electrical grid, clean cars and countries implemented fiscal stimulus plans, using batteries, and renewable energy. In China, the main government spending to provide much-needed support. beneficiary was infrastructure (railway, road, irrigation Some initiatives were more aggressive than others. and airport construction), followed by allocations to South Korea, Russia and China were among the most earthquake rebuilding efforts. The other major areas of forceful, implementing fiscal stimulus measures allocation were Public Housing, Rural Development amounting to more than 2.5% of GDP8. At the other and Technology advancement. 8 Executive Office of the President: Council of Economic Advisors, “The Effects of Fiscal Stimulus: A Cross-Country Perspective”, September 10, 2009 9 Ibid 10 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
  • 11. 2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT Global stimulus measures clearly yielded economic percentage of GDP dropped to 21.3% from 23.3% in benefits, but the government spending spree also led to a 200816. The drop was especially sharp in Western sharp increase in public debt in many major economies. In Europe, mainly due to the contraction of GDP by 4.1% 2009, public debt in the U.S. remained the highest at and the increase in government spending from US$3.06 US$6.7 trillion (up 24.3% in 2008-09), closely followed by trillion in 2008 to US$3.13 trillion in 200917. Among China at US$6.2 trillion (up 29.0%)10. The combined developed nations worldwide, the decline was led by deficits of European governments are now more than Germany (from 25.7% in 2008 to 20.9% in 2009) and double the 3% mandated under the European Union law11. Japan (from 25.5% to 21.4%)18. Both countries had experienced a contraction in GDP. Emerging economies Central Banks Cut Interest Rates and Kept experienced a lesser drop than the developed ones. China Them Low and India in particular experienced only slight declines, largely because of their strong GDP growth. Although interest rates were already low in much of the world, many central banks made additional cuts during Q1 2009. Moreover, most countries kept rates low for Private Consumption Dropped Marginally the whole year, recognizing the need to provide support in 2009 for the fragile global economy by keeping the price of Despite the challenging economic climate, global private money down—making it cheaper for individuals and consumption dropped only marginally to US$29.3 trillion businesses to borrow, and reducing the interest costs on in 2009 from US$29.4 trillion in 200819. North America debt. The Bank of England cut the Official Bank Rate accounts for a third of all private consumption worldwide, from 2.0% in January to 0.5%12 in March amid depressed and levels there dipped to US$9.9 trillion from US$10.0 confidence and persistent problems in international trillion in 200820. Western Europe, which also accounts credit markets. The U.S. Federal Reserve kept its federal for nearly 30% of global private consumption, similarly funds rate between 0.0% and 0.25%13 during 2009, and slipped to US$8.5 trillion from US$8.6 trillion. Notably, the Bank of Japan retained its Basic Discount rate at though, private consumption did not rise in either region 0.3% throughout the year14. even though consumer confidence was steady or rising after having sunk during the crisis. In Asia-Pacific National Savings as a Percentage of GDP excluding Japan, private consumption rose to US$4.0 Decreased Worldwide in 2009 trillion from US$3.8 trillion, the second straight year of healthy gains, but the region still accounts for only about Changing levels of national savings15 affect wealth by 14% of global private consumption 21. making more or less funds available for future investment. In 2009, world national savings as a 10 Economist Intelligence Unit, January 2010 16 Economist Intelligence Unit, Regional Data, February 2010 11 Mark Scott, “Europe’s Delicate Dilemma”, Bloomberg Businessweek, January 25, 2010 17 Ibid 12 Bank of England, Official Bank Rate statistics, http://www.bankofengland.co.uk, accessed March 15, 2010 18 Economist Intelligence Unit, Country Data, January 2010 13 Federal Reserve, Federal Funds Rate statistics, http://www.federalreserve.gov, accessed March 15, 2010 19 Economist Intelligence Unit, Regional Data, February 2010 14 Bank of Japan, Basic Discount Rate statistics, http://www.boj.or.jp/en/index.htm, accessed March 15, 2010 20 Ibid 15 National Savings = GDP – [Private Consumption + Government Consumption] 21 Ibid 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT 11
  • 12. 2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT KEY MARKET AND OTHER DRIVERS OF WEALTH SHOWED STRONG GAINS IN 2009 Strong gains were evident in 2009 in many aspects of Latin America. The strongest growth was seen in the market performance, another key driver of wealth. Major BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India and China) nations, asset classes (equities, fixed income, real estate and where market capitalization more than doubled. alternative investments) all rebounded after severe losses ƒƒ Equity-marketƒvolatilityƒplungedƒfromƒrecordƒhighsƒinƒ in 2008. Commodities also posted substantial gains, 2008,ƒbutƒremainsƒhigh. The rapid meltdown in while the performance of currencies remained heavily tied equities in 2008 occurred amid record levels of to underlying economic performance. volatility, but that volatility plunged in 2009, and has continued to drop in 2010. The daily volatility of the DJ Notable market developments during the year included World Index had sunk to 1.30% by end-2009 from the following: 2.48% at the beginning of the year and 2.56% at its ƒƒ Globalƒequity-marketƒcapitalizationƒroseƒnearlyƒ peak in mid-September 2008 (see Figure 7). In 47.1%ƒinƒ2009ƒtoƒreachƒUS$47.9ƒtrillion (see Figure early-2010, volatility declined further as crisis fears 6). Global equity markets had collapsed in 2008, continued to fade, though as per mid-April, volatility when capitalization sank 48.6%, and dropped close to levels still remained above those seen during the Asian 2003 levels. In 2009, however, equity markets financial crisis and after the September 11th terrorist rebounded strongly, after an initial dip in Q1 2009, to attacks in the U.S. end the year above 2005 levels. Global equity-market ƒƒ Globalƒrealƒestateƒturnedƒpositive. The global real capitalization rose 47.1% to stand at US$47.9 trillion estate market had suffered heavy losses in 2008, causing by the end of the year22. Short-term investors cashed a drop of 49.2% in the DJ Global Select REIT Index 23. in on the attractive investment opportunities in In 2009, however, housing prices recovered moderately equities by taking advantage of the consistent upward in most countries, largely due to government trend across indices. Market capitalization increased intervention. Hong Kong posted the greatest gains, across all regions, but was led by Asia-Pacific and with housing prices up 20.8%24, helped in part by a FIGURE 6. Market Capitalization, 2002 - 2009 (by Region) (US$ Trillion) Equity-Market Capitalization, 2002-2009 (by Region) FIGURE 6. (US$ Trillion) CAGR (’02-’07) CAGR (’07-’08) CAGR (’08-’09) 22.7% -48.6% 47.1% 80 APAC: 73.6% 63.4 EMEA: 38.0% 60 Americas: 35.8% 52.2 47.9 42.9 US$ 40 37.6 Asia-Paci c Trillion 32.6 31.5 Europe / 22.8 Middle East / 20 Africa Americas 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Source: World Federation of Exchanges, March 2010 22 World Federation of Exchanges, market capitalization statistics, http://www.world-exchanges.org/statistics, accessed March 9, 2010 23 Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Select REIT Index, http://www.djindexes.com, accessed February 4, 2010 24 Global Property Guide, Variation of monthly prices adjusted for inflation for the December 2008- December 2009, February 2010 12 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
  • 13. 2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT massive influx of buyers from mainland China. In the Hedge funds received more than US$1 billion in net U.K., the recovery was mainly driven by low interest investments in Q3 2009, experiencing the first quarter rates and a lack of supply. In the U.S., housing markets of positive inflows since Q2 200827. This influx brought stabilized as the U.S. Federal Reserve drove interest industry-wide assets to US$1.5 trillion. The Credit rates to 50-year lows, and in China, housing prices and Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index posted a year-end sales were boosted by direct government intervention. return of 18.6%28. In the near future, however, hedge The DJ Global Select REIT Index ended the year with funds are likely to face a variety of challenges, including total returns of 32.2%, with Canada (86.4%) and increased regulation and higher taxes. Singapore (83.7%) emerging as the top performers25. ƒƒ TheƒUSƒdollarƒremainedƒvolatileƒduringƒtheƒyear. Although the residential real estate market has Investors bought dollars in Q1 2009 amid demand for a managed to bounce back somewhat, the recovery could safe haven while stocks remained in decline. By April, be hard to sustain without ongoing government however, investors began to move away from the dollar intervention. Commercial real estate prices, meanwhile, as central banks around the world stepped up efforts to are unlikely to recover broadly until there are substantial support their economies. The dollar’s slide was gains in drivers of commercial real estate demand, such compounded by the relative weakness of the U.S. as job growth, rising incomes and private consumption, economic recovery. By the fall, some countries including and widespread economic growth. Australia were even raising interest rates, while the U.S. ƒƒ Hedgeƒfundsƒrecoupedƒmanyƒofƒtheirƒ2008ƒlosses. Federal Reserve maintained key rates near zero. Hedge fund managers remained cautious at the Encouraged by the availability of cheap money, beginning of 2009 after assets plunged US$500 billion investors borrowed dollars to buy stocks, gold, in 2008 from their end-2007 peak of US$1.9 trillion 26. commodities and other currencies. In December, Many managers initially kept 50% to 60% of their however, U.S. data on employment and retail sales were portfolios in cash, and some restricted redemptions, surprisingly positive, while credit-rating agencies sparking an outcry among investors. However, hedge painted a gloomy picture about some of the European funds reinvested as the markets stabilized, and economies. This led to a slide in the euro by about 6.0% contributed to the resurgence in stocks and bonds. against the dollar in just three weeks29. At the end of FIGURE 7. Daily Volatility of DJ World Index, January 1997 - April 2010 FIGURE 7. Daily Volatility of DJ World Index, January, 1997-April, 2009 (%) (%) Q4 2008 3.0 2.5 2.0 Tech Bubble Daily Russian Sept 11, Volatility 1.5 Crisis 2001 of DJ Asian World Debt Crisis Index (%) 1.0 April 2010 0.5 0.0 Jan-97 Jan-98 Jan-99 Jan-00 Jan-01 Jan-02 Jan-03 Jan-04 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Source: Dow Jones World (W1) Index – Daily close values from January 1st, 1997 to April 15th, 2010; Capgemini Analysis 25 Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Select REIT Index, http://www.djindexes.com, accessed 28 Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index, http://www.hedgeindex.com, February 4, 2010 accessed February 4, 2010 26 Jenny Strasburg and Gregory Zuckerman, “Hedge Funds Regain Some Swagger”, Wall 29 Joanna Slater, “Up-and-Down 2009 for Dollar”, Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2010 Street Journal, January 4, 2010 27 Ibid 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT 13
  • 14. 2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT the year, the dollar was up against the yen by 2.1%, but demand, especially from emerging markets. Despite the was down against most major currencies, especially the sustained gains of 2009, prices ended below the Brazilian real (-25.2%), Canadian dollar (-14.3%) and US$145/barrel high reached in July 2008. That high British pound (-9.9%)30. had been followed by a steep decline that left oil prices ƒƒ Commoditiesƒpostedƒstrongƒgainsƒinƒ2009,ƒbutƒcouldƒ sharply lower by the end of 2008. Analysts expect oil notƒwipeƒoutƒ2008ƒlosses. The Dow Jones-UBS prices to rise in 2010 as economies around the world Commodity Index (DJUBS) rose 18.7% in 2009, continue to stabilize. recouping only some of the 36.6% drop posted in ƒƒ Goldƒpricesƒsoaredƒinƒ2009,ƒfuelledƒbyƒbroadƒinvestorƒ 200831. The 2009 commodity rally was driven by metals demand. Gold prices increased steadily throughout as hopes of a global economic recovery spurred demand, 2009, registering a total increase of 26.9% for the year36. and fears of inflation encouraged hedging. Copper The price of gold peaked in early-December at recorded gains of 139.0% as industrial demand soared, US$1,212/oz, but dropped to US$1,104/oz at the end of and ended the year at US$3.3275/pound32, which was the year amid profit-taking. Challenging economic around 18% less than the highs of 2008. Silver prices conditions impacted industrial and jewelry demand for rose steadily to end 2009 with a gain of 57.5%33. Strong gold, which dropped 16.0% and 20.0% respectively in demand from automakers increased demand for 200937. However, gold saw hefty buying by funds and platinum, which is used in catalytic converters, and individual investors alike, seeking insurance against lead, which is used in car batteries. Platinum prices rose possible inflation and a declining dollar. The world’s 63.3% to end the year at US$1,466/oz34, and lead more biggest gold ETF, SPDR Gold Shares, increased its than doubled in price to US$2,416 a metric ton. gold holdings by 45.0% to more than 1,133 metric ƒƒ Oilƒpricesƒended 2009 at US$79.4/barrel, a gain of tons38 in 2009. Central banks around the world, 78.0% on the year35. Prices more or less tracked the especially those of China and India, were net buyers of economy, falling at the beginning of the year, before gold in 2009 after decades of selling. Gold prices are moving higher as fears about the financial crisis began likely to rise further in early 2010, but may face to ease. Prices also rose on expectations of long-term downward pressure thereafter, due to expectations that interest rates will rise around the world. SUSTAINED GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY DEPENDS ON RETURN OF PRIVATE CONSUMPTION AND CAREFUL HANDLING OF GOVERNMENT- STIMULUS WITHDRAWAL The global economy was supported by extraordinary sectors in numerous countries in early-2010, but that measures from governments around the world in 2009. growth remains nascent. In fact, sustained global Central banks favored highly expansionary monetary economic recovery will depend heavily on how well policies, with interest rates at record lows in many governments manage their use of, and exit from, their countries, and fiscal stimulus was implemented to fiscal stimulus policies, and whether private support economic recovery. As a result, signs of consumption can re-emerge to drive a sustained economic resurgence were emerging in many key global recovery. 30 Ozforex, Historical data for select currencies against the U.S. dollar, 35 U.S. Energy Information Administration, Cushing, OK WTI Spot Price FOB, http://www.ozforex.com.au, accessed February 2, 2010 http://www.eia.doe.gov, accessed January 28, 2010 31 Dow Jones, Dow Jones Commodity Index (DJUBS), 36 Kitco, London PM FIX Prices, http://www.kitco.com, accessed February 11, 2010 http://www.djindexes.com, accessed January 29, 2010 37 World Gold Council, “Gold Demand Trends: Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2009”, February 32 Carolyn Cui, “Metal Rally Has Legs to Keep Running”, Wall Street Journal, January 3, 2010 17, 2010 33 Kitco, London PM FIX Prices, http://www.kitco.com, accessed February 11, 2010 38 Carolyn Cui, “Metal Rally Has Legs to Keep Running”, Wall Street Journal, 34 Ibid January 3, 2010 14 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
  • 15. 2009 IN REVIEW: MANY DRIVERS OF WEALTH REBOUNDED, BUT ECONOMIC RECOVERY IS STILL NASCENT In the year ahead, there are numerous key economic return to vibrant private consumption, which depends issues to watch, including the following: heavily on employment, overall consumer confidence ƒƒ WorldƒGDPƒisƒforecastƒtoƒgrowƒinƒ2010ƒandƒ2011,ƒafterƒ and spending, as well as income. Global unemployment contractingƒinƒ2009. Asia-Pacific excluding Japan is grew 14.4% to 211.5 million in 200942, and is expected expected to show the strongest GDP growth of any to keep rising, but the employment recovery is expected region, with growth of 7.0% in 2010 and 6.4% in to be gradual, and companies are likely to try raising 201139. That would outpace growth in the G7 productivity before they add employees. Consumer developed nations. The region’s GDP growth is likely confidence is rising from the lows of early-2009 but to be led by China and India, where independent remains tenuous. Given current conditions, private engines of growth, such as domestic consumption, are consumption is expected to grow only mildly in 2010 in expected to be strong. In Latin America, the growth is North America and Western Europe—which together expected to be led by Brazil, amid expanding credit, account for more than 60% of global private strong demand for commodities and substantial capital consumption. Other major contributors to global private inflows. The outlook for Russia is also promising, consumption include Japan, Germany, the U.K., France as the country stands to benefit from higher prices and China, which will all face similar issues within their for oil and base metals, especially if the global recovery own economies. Each contributes from 3% to 9% to is sustained. global private consumption. ƒƒ Financialƒconditionsƒareƒstillƒchallenging. The Beyond these major factors, numerous other issues have tightening of bank lending standards has moderated the potential to restrain world growth. They include fears somewhat, but bank lending is likely to remain sluggish of inflation, especially in Europe, and spillover from as banks wait to see the extent of additional loan problems in individual institutions or countries. In write-offs. Corporate bond issuance increased early-2010, for example, the fiscal crisis in Greece and the significantly following a rebound in equity markets, but effective default of one of Dubai’s largest government- those issues have not been able to make up for the owned companies offered sobering reminders that scaling back of new bank lending to the private sector40. unforeseen problems can quickly undermine consumer Sovereign debt ratings have come under pressure in and business confidence and restrain growth if not some countries struggling with large government credibly managed. deficits and debts. Cross-border bank financing is still contracting in some regions, and is likely to affect Going forward, then, governments around the world will domestic credit growth. be juggling several challenges, including the need to ƒƒ Howƒandƒwhenƒgovernmentsƒwithdrawƒstimulusƒwillƒbeƒ maintain appropriate fiscal stimulus and support healthy critical. If governments exit their supportive policies growth, the imperative to correct unhealthy economic prematurely, they are likely to undermine global imbalances, and the need to nurture the conditions growth. In fact, the immediate withdrawal of stimulus necessary to encourage private consumption. Regulatory measures could increase the chances of an economic reform will present additional challenges to markets and recession similar to that seen in the U.S. in 1937 and in economies. Governments around the world are each Japan in 199741. Conversely, if governments overly considering and implementing reform measures, but the prolong stimulus, it could inflate fiscal deficits to financial crisis proved that global economies are now unmanageable levels, and undermine the prospects for highly interdependent, and attempts to coordinate long-term growth. international supervisory frameworks and market ƒƒ Returnƒofƒvibrantƒprivateƒconsumptionƒisƒessential. The regulations will continue for some time. Specific reform global economy is showing clear signs of recovery, but measures, and the speed with which they are executed, that revival is still underpinned by the effects of has the potential to impact investors, markets and government stimulus. A sustained recovery will require a economies significantly. 39 Economist Intelligence Unit, Regional Data, April 2010 40 International Monetary Fund, “World Economic Outlook Update: A Policy-Driven Multispeed Recovery”, January 26, 2010 41 Ibid 42 International Labour Organization, “Global Employment Trends”, Geneva, January 2010 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT 15
  • 16. HNWIsReturned to Markets HNWIs Warily Warily Returned to Markets in 2009 in Cautious Pursuit of Returns ƒ HNW investors cautiously returned to the markets in 2009 as fears over the financial crisis eased. However, they favored predictable returns and cash flow, as evidenced by the rise in HNWI allocations to fixed-income instruments, to 31% from 29%. Equity holdings also rose, to 29% from 25%, as the world’s stock markets recovered. Cash holdings declined slightly. ƒ HNWIs overall had proportionally more invested outside their home regions by the end of 2009 than they had a year earlier. This shift countered a widespread trend toward asset repatriation to home regions during the crisis. The decline in home-region investments was most marked in Europe, where such holdings dropped to 59% of overall portfolios from 65% in 2008. Among Latin American HNWIs, by contrast, home-region allocations were up 3 percentage points to 47%. In general, HNWIs’ allocations to emerging markets rose overall, and to Asia-Pacific in particular, as investments flowed to regions and markets expected to have the most growth in the coming years. ƒ By 2011, HNWIs are expected to further reduce their home-region investments, and look to those regions in which growth is expected to be more robust. North American HNWIs, who have typically held a large portion of assets in their own region, are shifting those allocations to become more geographically diversified. They are gravitating in particular toward regions in which growth is anticipated, especially Asia-Pacific and Latin America. Home-region allocations are also expected to drop among Europe’s HNWIs, who are also likely to invest more in Asia-Pacific. HNWIS SOUGHT TO RECOUP LOSSES IN 2009, BUT TOOK A MEASURED APPROACH As projected in the last WWR, HNW investors began to ƒ Of global HNWI assets, 31% were held in fixed-income regain their appetite for risk in 2009, especially as the year instruments by the end of 2009, up from 29% in 2008. wore on and the global economy showed signs of recovery. This reflected the crisis-driven desire to secure As a result, there was a tentative but tangible shift in predictable cash flows. The Barclays Capital Global HNWI asset allocations, both in aggregate and by region. Aggregate Bond Index returned 9% on the year. ƒ Globally, equities accounted for 29% of total HNWI HNWIs’ Exposure to Equities and Fixed-Income financial assets at the end of 2009, up from 25% a year Increased as Crisis Fears Abated earlier as many of the world’s stock markets recovered The proportion of HNWI assets held in equities increased sharply. Global market capitalization rose to US$47.9 slightly in 2009. At the same time, the share held in trillion in 2009 from US$32.6 trillion in 2008, up 47% 43. fixed-income rose, and cash-based holdings dropped, ƒ Equity holdings among European HNWIs rose from suggesting that while HNWIs were keen to pursue 21% of total assets in 2008 to 26% in 2009 as European returns and recoup some of their 2008 losses, they also stock market capitalization grew by 38% 44. Among valued predictability in returns and cash flows. North American HNWIs, who have long favored equities as an asset class, equity holdings edged up from More specifically, a number of tangible shifts in the 34% of total holdings in 2008 to 36% in 2009 as stock worldwide portfolio of HNWI financial assets occurred values rose. North American HNWIs remain far more in 2009 (see Figure 8), including the following: heavily invested in equities than the 29% global average. 43 World Federation of Exchanges, Market capitalization statistics, http://www.world-exchanges.org/statistics, accessed March 9, 2010 44 Ibid 16 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT
  • 17. HNWIS WARILY RETURNED TO MARKETS IN 2009 IN CAUTIOUS PURSUIT OF RETURNS FIGURE 8. Breakdown of HNWI Financial Assets, 2006-2011F FIGURE 8. Breakdown of HNWI Financial Assets, 2006-2011F (%) (%) 100 10% 9% 7% 6% 8% 14% 18% 18% 14% 24% 75 Alternative Investmentsa 13% 17% 17% 21% Real Estateb 14% % 50 31% Cash / Deposits 27% 31% 21% 29% Fixed Income Equities 25 31% 33% 35% 25% 29% 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2011F a Includes structured products, hedge funds, derivatives, foreign currency, commodities, private equity, venture capital b Comprises commercial real estate, real estate investment trusts (REITs), residential real estate (excluding primary residence), undeveloped property, farmland and other Source: Capgemini/Merrill Lynch Financial Advisor Surveys 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 ƒ HNWIs from Latin America and Japan remained the Benchmark Index grew 23.8%. That index remains most conservative, with HWNIs in each region holding far below the highs of 2007, though46. 52% of their aggregate portfolios in either cash/deposits HNWIs in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan still have the or fixed-income, despite surging equities prices. world’s highest allocation to real estate investment However, this is not unusual for Latin American overall, and to residential real estate in particular, after an HNWIs, who typically hold a higher percentage of exponential boom in real estate investment in recent assets in fixed income than HNWIs in other regions. years. Direct real estate investment in the region jumped 56% year-on-year in the second half of 2009 to an By 2011, aggregate allocations to equities are expected to estimated US$25 billion47. By end-2009, 28% of the rise to 35% of HNWI holdings, with fixed-income assets held by the region’s HNWIs were in real estate. holdings steady at around 31%, as HNWIs regain their risk appetite but seek to strike a balance in their portfolios. HNWIs in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan also had the greatest proportional exposure to residential real estate Residential Real Estate Regained Some (60% of all real-estate investments). For many in that of Its Appeal for HNWIs in 2009 region, residential property remains a highly attractive investment because tight supply and strong demand Overall, the proportion of HNWI assets dedicated to real endure in most prime locations. The price of luxury estate remained unchanged at 18% in 2009, after residences in Asia-Pacific grew by 17.1% in 2009, with increasing in 2008, when HNWIs showed a preference prices in cities like Hong Kong, Shanghai and Beijing for tangible assets and sought to capture some bargains as surging by more than 40% 48, reaching record global real-estate prices slumped. More specifically, though: levels49. In North America, luxury real estate sales began ƒ Of all real-estate assets, the share dedicated to to recover, particularly in the secondary-home market, residential real estate45 rose—to 48% from 45%—as but sales still predominate at the lower end of the luxury prices recovered across much of the globe. market, as investors look for value and bargains50. ƒ Commercial real estate holdings dipped slightly to In the Middle East, HNWI holdings of real estate 27% from 28% as the sector experienced falling rental dropped to 23% of all investments from 25% in 2008 incomes, weak demand and increased supply. as hotspots such as Dubai experienced a major slump ƒ REIT holdings increased to 12% from 10% of all in demand. HNWI real-estate assets as the Global REIT 45 Not including primary residence 48 Knight Frank, “The Wealth Report 2010”, http://www.knightfrank.com 46 Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Select REIT Index, http://www.djindexes.com, 49 Kay Coughlin, President & CEO, Christie’s Great Estates. interview by Capgemini, April 2010 accessed February 4, 2010 50 Ibid 47 CB Richard Ellis, “Asia Investment MarketView 2H 2009”, http://cbre.com 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT 17
  • 18. HNWIS WARILY RETURNED TO MARKETS IN 2009 IN CAUTIOUS PURSUIT OF RETURNS Commercial real estate was held in the highest proportions Commodities also accounted for a larger share of the by HNWIs in Europe. However, those holdings—32% of aggregate alternative investment HNWI portfolio in all their real-estate investments vs. the global average of 2009—16% vs. 13% in 2008. That amount was boosted in 27%—reflected an inability to shed assets in the illiquid particular by HNWIs buying gold as insurance against markets more than a desire to be heavily invested in possible inflation and dollar weakness. The price of gold commercial interests. rose 27% in 2009, its ninth straight year of gains. HNWIs from North America have a much higher-than-average Ultra-HNWIs again held more of their real estate holdings allocation to commodities (24%), but they also have access in commercial real estate than HNWIs did overall in 2009 to a wider array of commodity-based instruments, such as (32% of the total vs. 27%), while holding less in residential exchange traded funds, so have more opportunities to buy. real estate (45% vs. 48%). Foreign currency investment comprised only 13% of Farmland and undeveloped property, meanwhile, overall HNWI alternative investment allocations, but comprised 6% and 8% respectively of aggregate global that proportion was much greater among HNWIs in HNWI real estate portfolios in 2009, little changed from Japan (28%) and higher too among HNWIs in the rest of 2008. However, the Farmland allocation was much higher Asia (20%) and the Middle East (20%) as HNWIs (23%) in Latin America, where a significant amount of sought to hedge against local currency fluctuations. wealth has traditionally been derived from agricultural businesses, and the undeveloped land allocation was much The share of alternative investments dedicated to higher in the Middle East (21%), where such land has been structured products was little changed in 2009 at 20% as in speculative demand amid the real-estate boom. HNWIs continued to hold the type of structured vehicles that offer capital guarantees (not the more complex, HNWI holdings of real-estate investment trusts (REITs) opaque structures that contributed to the financial crisis) rose in 2009 to 12% of all HNWI real-estate assets from and sought to capture superior returns to conventional 10% as the Global REIT Benchmark Index grew 23.8%. fixed-income investments. Among Japanese HNWIs, in That index remains far below the highs of 2007, though51. fact, structured products are the single most popular form of alternative investment as they offer the potential for REIT holdings are proportionally higher among HNWIs in yield when prevailing interest rates are low. North America and Japan, where REIT returns have been relatively attractive and the product itself is more readily Geographical Diversification Was Evident available and more familiar to investors. The U.S. High in HNWI Asset Shifts in 2009 Total Returns on All REITs Index rose 27.4% in 2009, and The geographic distribution of HNWI assets also shifted the average dividend yield on J-REITs was 6.8% vs. 1.3% for in 2009 while HNWIs generally sought higher returns the 10-year Japanese Government Bond (JGB)52. and greater geographic diversification in their portfolios (see Figure 9). HNWI Holdings in Hedge Funds Rose though Alternative Investments Held Steady Overall The following trends were especially notable: HNWIs’ holdings of alternative investments were little ƒ HNWIs in all regions except Latin America increased changed overall in 2009 at 6% of the aggregate portfolio vs. the relative share of holdings in markets outside their 7% in 2008. However, allocations to hedge funds rose to home regions in 2009. European HNWIs had 41% of 27% of the alternative-investment total from 24% as the their holdings in investments outside Europe, up 6 hedge fund industry recovered from its dismal performance percentage points from 2008, marking the largest such in 2008. The Credit Suisse/Tremont Hedge Fund Index shift. The underlying trend was similar among HNWIs posted an 18.6% return in 2009. in North America, who reduced their home-region holdings by 5 percentage points to 76%. Even Asia- Among HNWIs from Latin America, hedge funds clearly Pacific HNWIs sought opportunity outside their own dominate alternative-investment holdings and accounted thriving region, reducing home-region allocations by 4 for 49% of all such holdings in 2009, when the percentage points to 54%. Eurekahedge Latin American Hedge Fund Index rose ƒ HNWIs’ allocations to emerging markets rose overall. 26.9%. The picture is similar in Europe, where HNWIs Of global HNWI holdings, the amount dedicated to held 32% of alternative investments in hedge funds in 2009 Asia-Pacific investments rose to 22% of aggregate when the Eurekahedge Europe Index returned 21.85%. 51 Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Select REIT Index, http://www.djindexes.com, accessed February 4, 2010 52 Dow Jones, Dow Jones Global Select REIT Index, http://www.djindexes.com, accessed February 4, 2010, CB Richard Ellis, “Asia Investment MarketView 2H 2009”, http://cbre.com 18 2010 WORLD WEALTH REPORT