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@caweena #future
Designing your product vision:
Introduction to Scenario Planning
Carina Ngai
Product Design Lead
Inflection, LLC
Redwood City, CA
ngai.carina@gmail.com
@caweena #future
june 20th
, 2013
@caweena #future
Scenario planning
Study of the future
What is Scenario Planning?
� Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today
� Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy,
development, and stimulate innovations
� Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning,
and risk management
What is Scenario Planning?
� Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today
� Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy,
development, and stimulate innovations
� Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning,
and risk management
� NOT indended to be predictions or visions of desired futures
� Provides structure to allow us to start thinking about the
longer term future, and the possible implications
What is Scenario Planning?
� Ask “What if?” instead of “What is?”
� It’s about options, not actions.
HOW TO:
1. List Driving Forces
2. Rank importance
3. Make a Scenario Grid
4. Imagine the possible future worlds
5. Brainstorm implications and actions
to: harry moore
from: findorf farm
dear harry, here’s
an early bird
notice that new
produce is
available. come
along and pick up a
chicken!
findorf farm shares
this is to certify that
harry moore owns 100
shares
for sale
peer-to-peer bankers
first-time
buyers
peer-to-peer
mortgagescommunity
farm
Source: Forum for the future, Sainsbury’s
Illustration: Ian Dera
World 1 World 2
World 3 World 4
+ DESIGN
1. Find patterns in 4 worlds World 1 World 2
World 3 World 4
+ DESIGN
1. Find patterns in 4 worlds
2. Create a Vision
NOW
North Star
+ DESIGN
1. Find patterns in 4 worlds
2. Create a Vision
3. Design a vision prototype
4. Build a product roadmap
NOW
North Star
When is the best time
to do Scenario Planning?
VISUAL EXPLORATIONS INSIGHTS
Brand Anology
Exercise+
RESEARCH CONCEPT DEV FINAL OUTPUTBRAND DEV
Analysis
Public Persona
Social
Connector
Selective
Sharer
Survey
Interviews
Secondary
Research
PERSONA
Identity’s
Branding
Iterate
& Refine
Future TrendsScenario
Planning
Workshops
+
Sketching
Sessions+
5 Design
Principles
Generate
“What-if”
Exercise
Scenarios
Storyboard
Workflow Sample
Wireframes
VISION PROTOTYPE
New Feature
Ideas
Identity’s long term vision
Evaluate
& Rank
Creative
Leap
+
Persona
Development
2 / 6
Ready to give it a try?
@caweena #future
What is the Future of
PERSONAL DATA?
@caweena #future
Trends & Facts
1. By 2020, global volume of
digital data will increase more
than 40 folds.
2. Law and government is catching
up with technology loopholes.
3. Ubiquitous computing &
Internet of Things.
4. Privacy is reactive.
5. People are willing to share more
only when value outweight risks.
6. Emerging contextually sensitive
approach to privacy.
7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of
privacy continue to evolve.
@caweena #future
1. By 2020, global volume of
digital data will increase more
than 40 folds.
2. Law and government is catching
up with technology loopholes.
3. Ubiquitous computing &
Internet of Things.
4. Privacy is reactive.
5. People are willing to share more
only when value outweight risks.
6. Emerging contextually sensitive
approach to privacy.
7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of
privacy continue to evolve.
Trends & Facts
How Target Figured
Out A Teen Girl Was
Pregnant Before Her
Father Did -Forbes 02/2012
@caweena #future
1. By 2020, global volume of
digital data will increase more
than 40 folds.
2. Law and government is catching
up with technology loopholes.
3. Ubiquitous computing &
Internet of Things.
4. Privacy is reactive.
5. People are willing to share more
only when value outweight risks.
6. Emerging contextually sensitive
approach to privacy.
7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of
privacy continue to evolve.
Trends & Facts
Girls Around Me:
An App Takes Creepy to
a New Level -NYTimes 03/2012
@caweena #future
List Driving Forces:
1. Social
2. Technological
3. Economic
4. Environmental
5. Political
@caweena #future
Themes:
1. Digital Tattoo
2. Data Ownership
3. Government regulations on Privacy
4. State of Economy
5. Internet of Things
6. Sustainability
7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation
@caweena #future
Most Critical Uncertainties:
1. Digital Tattoo
2. Data Ownership
3. Government regulations on Privacy
4. State of Economy
5. Internet of Things
6. Sustainability
7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
Personal Data in 2020
?
In World #3
It’s about
Big Brother Business
Insecurity, suspicion
Real world connections
Big business and corporations
Rumors
It’s NOT about
Online credibility
Efficiency
Startups
?
Grassroots movement
No trust
Face to face interaction wins
More people are struggling for survival due to the depressed economy. More
crime, fraud and terrorism appear because of desperation and the easiness to
hide one’s trace. The efficiency of crime solving goes down since police force
has to return to a street-based investigation. Only big companies with ample
resources can start a mass data driven business, such as selling people’s data.
People are increasingly dissatisfied with the government and resent big
corporations. Grassroot level protests start to grow, demanding a more efficient
government, lower crime rate, and more jobs. Rumors can potentially lead to
massive chaos.
The level of trust goes down: Education will be dominated by traditional schooling
system. Online dating is dying, people seek more traditional personal connections
to get to know each other. Street smart people has a higher chance to prosper
with their connections.
In sleeping volcano...
What will you see on a newspaper headline?
What kind of business will thrive?
What will you see on a newspaper headline?
What kind of business will thrive?
FEEL: Suspicious, dirt digging, gossips, isolated
OPPORTUNITIES: Data bartering, Data Pawn shop,
Negotiator, Face-2-face, On-foot verification,
Data = currency
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
World 2
Anarchic Data
Highway
Personal Data in 2020
World #2
Anarchic Data Highway
It’s about
Government efficiency
Filter bubble
Private Internets
Individualism
Emerging new business types
It’s NOT about
Anonymity
Common codes of conduct
?
Efficiency
Multiple Identities
Indivisualism
Government has the resource to leverage public data to focus on longer term
projects: Several privacy protection acts are passed to regulate companies’ access
and usage of personal data, and prevent people abusing others by their online
record. Scientific research like space programs and disease studies are funded.
The prosperity of economy stimulates ample opportunities in all fields, the ease
of living encourage people to express their uniqueness, flaunting their lifestyles
& quirks. Private Internet is established for people to share information within a
selective circle. Business such as image makeover consultancy emerges, guiding
people in not only how to make amends for past imperfections, but also how to
shape their own special online presence. Also parents will try to create a “golden
plate” online presence for their children from the first day.
Meanwhile, companies have the resource to invest heavily on data-mining and
profiling for marketing, which might lead to extreme filter bubbles for consumers.
In anarchic data highway...
Synthesizing & Sketching
World 3
Sleeping
Volcano
World 4
Dual Face Nation
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
Personal Data in 2020
World 2
Anarchic Data
Highway
World 1
Luddite Fallacy
Economic
Depression
Economic
prosperity
You’re an open
book for life
Complete control of
your Personal Data
New Currencies
World 3
Personal Data
World 4
Honesty
World 2
Recognition
World 1
Security
Vision Storyboard
EASY
CONSENT AND
PAINLESS
FORM FILLING
Jamie sends out a
consent request to the
candidate Rita. Rita
authorizes the
background check over
her mobile device. She
then logs into LinkedIn to
pre-fill the form.
education
how to read
types of report
monthly emails
mobile contextual message
PS, GH trigger
curate stories
archive
prompt
public records
public records
publicprivate
self-branded
nudge / trigger
edit / fix
manage
add services
add personal
data
share
top 10 things
about me
System
Diagram
Verified user generated content
will be feeding into our
system. This will give our
company a unique advantage,
because we will then have an
authentic workflow that can be
leveraged by Product A and
Product B.
**Personal Data = voluntary
user-generated data such as
photo, video, narratives
Disclaimer: Content is modified for confidentiality purpose
Self-branded billboard
empower users to select
their top 10 news.
The new system will provide
ways for user to see, fix,
educate, and interact with
the central library.
**
top 10 news
billboard
library
New feature wireframes
Find connection
Matthew Carter Robert Hu
Chad Howell
Rick
Find connection
David Johnson Eugene Stevens
Linda Jackson
Jacob Whitman
Malinda Harvey
Chad Howell
Brad Simons
Amy Butler
Laura Croft
Rachel Bolton
Mary Poppins
Elizabeth Gaskell
David Liu
2008
2013
Circle of Influence
Rick
Find connection
Nick CarlsonLinda Jackson
Ben Chapman
Erik Stolterman
Matthew Carter Robert Hu
Malinda Harvey
Chad Howell
Mary Jackson
Amy Butler
Martin Neal
Elizabeth Gaskell
Julia Shelton
David Johnson
Rick
David Johnson Eugene Stevens
Linda Jackson
Jacob Whitman
Malinda Harvey
Brad Simons
Amy Butler
Rachel Bolton
Elizabeth Gaskell
2008
2013
LEFT:
Rick added Facebook, MySpace, and Twitter to iD. He can choose to add more
social media accounts on the top left. In 2008, this graph shows his circle of
influence, with Linda, David and Eugene being his closest friends. This is
calculated by the frequency of intereactions etc.
2008
RIGHT:
By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see
how his circle of influence has changed, with Linda still being his closest friend,
and Nick being the new best friend. This may be something Rick hasn’t thought
about, and he may want to re-engage with his old friends
2013
New feature wireframes
2008
2013
Job hunting
Recruiters
Graduation Living in the bay area:
food & entertainment
Interviewing
with Google
Hourly Salary
Converter
Alumni
networking
event
Gamers’
guild
meetup
Intel Inteviews
My resume
San Francisco
Bay area
crime map
and 6 more
Gamers’guild meetup
Gamers’guild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos
games, card games, and board gamges.
Next week’s theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade
stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear.
17
9
12
Eric Davis 5
Dept Chair
Mom
What’s happening
2008
2013
Recruiters
Graduation Living in the bay area:
food & entertainment
Interviewing
with Google
Hourly Salary
Converter
Alumni
networking
event
Gamers’
guild
meetup
My resume
San Francisco
Homes for sale
School district
ratings
Coachella
Bay area
crime map
Mortgage
Rate
Puppy
training
classes
Trulia
loan
calculator
Annual
job
review
IKEA
family
member
and 6 more
Gamers’guild meetup
Gamers’guild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos
games, card games, and board gamges.
Next week’s theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade
stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear.
17
Real Estate Agent 23
9
12
Dept Chair
Mom
LEFT:
From the email account Rick used to sign up, iD is able to analyze the data
within. In 2008, this graph shows his topic of interest during that time. Each
rectangle size correponds to the frequency of topics appeared in the email. Rick
had just graduated from college, and was actively looking for jobs. Hover over
the squares for more details.
2008
RIGHT:
By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see
how his topic of interest has changed. Rick is now actively looking for a house
in San Francisco. The biggest rectangle size shows the frequency of interaction
with his real estate agent.
2013
5 / 6
@caweena #future
Design helps us better understand
future possibilities in order to
make better decisions today

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Designing Your Product Vision

  • 1. @caweena #future Designing your product vision: Introduction to Scenario Planning Carina Ngai Product Design Lead Inflection, LLC Redwood City, CA ngai.carina@gmail.com @caweena #future june 20th , 2013
  • 3. What is Scenario Planning? � Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today � Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy, development, and stimulate innovations � Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning, and risk management
  • 4. What is Scenario Planning? � Foresight methodology to help us make better decisions today � Helps identify risks & opportunities, inform strategy, development, and stimulate innovations � Mostly been used in a business context for strategic planning, and risk management � NOT indended to be predictions or visions of desired futures � Provides structure to allow us to start thinking about the longer term future, and the possible implications
  • 5. What is Scenario Planning? � Ask “What if?” instead of “What is?” � It’s about options, not actions.
  • 6. HOW TO: 1. List Driving Forces 2. Rank importance 3. Make a Scenario Grid 4. Imagine the possible future worlds 5. Brainstorm implications and actions to: harry moore from: findorf farm dear harry, here’s an early bird notice that new produce is available. come along and pick up a chicken! findorf farm shares this is to certify that harry moore owns 100 shares for sale peer-to-peer bankers first-time buyers peer-to-peer mortgagescommunity farm Source: Forum for the future, Sainsbury’s Illustration: Ian Dera World 1 World 2 World 3 World 4
  • 7. + DESIGN 1. Find patterns in 4 worlds World 1 World 2 World 3 World 4
  • 8. + DESIGN 1. Find patterns in 4 worlds 2. Create a Vision NOW North Star
  • 9. + DESIGN 1. Find patterns in 4 worlds 2. Create a Vision 3. Design a vision prototype 4. Build a product roadmap NOW North Star
  • 10. When is the best time to do Scenario Planning?
  • 11. VISUAL EXPLORATIONS INSIGHTS Brand Anology Exercise+ RESEARCH CONCEPT DEV FINAL OUTPUTBRAND DEV Analysis Public Persona Social Connector Selective Sharer Survey Interviews Secondary Research PERSONA Identity’s Branding Iterate & Refine Future TrendsScenario Planning Workshops + Sketching Sessions+ 5 Design Principles Generate “What-if” Exercise Scenarios Storyboard Workflow Sample Wireframes VISION PROTOTYPE New Feature Ideas Identity’s long term vision Evaluate & Rank Creative Leap + Persona Development 2 / 6
  • 12. Ready to give it a try?
  • 13. @caweena #future What is the Future of PERSONAL DATA?
  • 14. @caweena #future Trends & Facts 1. By 2020, global volume of digital data will increase more than 40 folds. 2. Law and government is catching up with technology loopholes. 3. Ubiquitous computing & Internet of Things. 4. Privacy is reactive. 5. People are willing to share more only when value outweight risks. 6. Emerging contextually sensitive approach to privacy. 7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of privacy continue to evolve.
  • 15. @caweena #future 1. By 2020, global volume of digital data will increase more than 40 folds. 2. Law and government is catching up with technology loopholes. 3. Ubiquitous computing & Internet of Things. 4. Privacy is reactive. 5. People are willing to share more only when value outweight risks. 6. Emerging contextually sensitive approach to privacy. 7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of privacy continue to evolve. Trends & Facts How Target Figured Out A Teen Girl Was Pregnant Before Her Father Did -Forbes 02/2012
  • 16. @caweena #future 1. By 2020, global volume of digital data will increase more than 40 folds. 2. Law and government is catching up with technology loopholes. 3. Ubiquitous computing & Internet of Things. 4. Privacy is reactive. 5. People are willing to share more only when value outweight risks. 6. Emerging contextually sensitive approach to privacy. 7. “Creep factor”. Nuances of privacy continue to evolve. Trends & Facts Girls Around Me: An App Takes Creepy to a New Level -NYTimes 03/2012
  • 17. @caweena #future List Driving Forces: 1. Social 2. Technological 3. Economic 4. Environmental 5. Political
  • 18. @caweena #future Themes: 1. Digital Tattoo 2. Data Ownership 3. Government regulations on Privacy 4. State of Economy 5. Internet of Things 6. Sustainability 7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation
  • 19. @caweena #future Most Critical Uncertainties: 1. Digital Tattoo 2. Data Ownership 3. Government regulations on Privacy 4. State of Economy 5. Internet of Things 6. Sustainability 7. Social Media Domination / Fragmentation
  • 20. Economic Depression Economic prosperity You’re an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data Personal Data in 2020 ?
  • 21. In World #3 It’s about Big Brother Business Insecurity, suspicion Real world connections Big business and corporations Rumors It’s NOT about Online credibility Efficiency Startups ?
  • 22. Grassroots movement No trust Face to face interaction wins
  • 23. More people are struggling for survival due to the depressed economy. More crime, fraud and terrorism appear because of desperation and the easiness to hide one’s trace. The efficiency of crime solving goes down since police force has to return to a street-based investigation. Only big companies with ample resources can start a mass data driven business, such as selling people’s data. People are increasingly dissatisfied with the government and resent big corporations. Grassroot level protests start to grow, demanding a more efficient government, lower crime rate, and more jobs. Rumors can potentially lead to massive chaos. The level of trust goes down: Education will be dominated by traditional schooling system. Online dating is dying, people seek more traditional personal connections to get to know each other. Street smart people has a higher chance to prosper with their connections. In sleeping volcano...
  • 24. What will you see on a newspaper headline? What kind of business will thrive?
  • 25. What will you see on a newspaper headline? What kind of business will thrive?
  • 26. FEEL: Suspicious, dirt digging, gossips, isolated OPPORTUNITIES: Data bartering, Data Pawn shop, Negotiator, Face-2-face, On-foot verification, Data = currency
  • 27. Economic Depression Economic prosperity You’re an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data World 2 Anarchic Data Highway Personal Data in 2020
  • 28. World #2 Anarchic Data Highway It’s about Government efficiency Filter bubble Private Internets Individualism Emerging new business types It’s NOT about Anonymity Common codes of conduct ?
  • 30. Government has the resource to leverage public data to focus on longer term projects: Several privacy protection acts are passed to regulate companies’ access and usage of personal data, and prevent people abusing others by their online record. Scientific research like space programs and disease studies are funded. The prosperity of economy stimulates ample opportunities in all fields, the ease of living encourage people to express their uniqueness, flaunting their lifestyles & quirks. Private Internet is established for people to share information within a selective circle. Business such as image makeover consultancy emerges, guiding people in not only how to make amends for past imperfections, but also how to shape their own special online presence. Also parents will try to create a “golden plate” online presence for their children from the first day. Meanwhile, companies have the resource to invest heavily on data-mining and profiling for marketing, which might lead to extreme filter bubbles for consumers. In anarchic data highway...
  • 32. World 3 Sleeping Volcano World 4 Dual Face Nation Economic Depression Economic prosperity You’re an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data Personal Data in 2020 World 2 Anarchic Data Highway World 1 Luddite Fallacy
  • 33. Economic Depression Economic prosperity You’re an open book for life Complete control of your Personal Data New Currencies World 3 Personal Data World 4 Honesty World 2 Recognition World 1 Security
  • 35. EASY CONSENT AND PAINLESS FORM FILLING Jamie sends out a consent request to the candidate Rita. Rita authorizes the background check over her mobile device. She then logs into LinkedIn to pre-fill the form.
  • 36. education how to read types of report monthly emails mobile contextual message PS, GH trigger curate stories archive prompt public records public records publicprivate self-branded nudge / trigger edit / fix manage add services add personal data share top 10 things about me System Diagram Verified user generated content will be feeding into our system. This will give our company a unique advantage, because we will then have an authentic workflow that can be leveraged by Product A and Product B. **Personal Data = voluntary user-generated data such as photo, video, narratives Disclaimer: Content is modified for confidentiality purpose Self-branded billboard empower users to select their top 10 news. The new system will provide ways for user to see, fix, educate, and interact with the central library. ** top 10 news billboard library
  • 37. New feature wireframes Find connection Matthew Carter Robert Hu Chad Howell Rick Find connection David Johnson Eugene Stevens Linda Jackson Jacob Whitman Malinda Harvey Chad Howell Brad Simons Amy Butler Laura Croft Rachel Bolton Mary Poppins Elizabeth Gaskell David Liu 2008 2013 Circle of Influence Rick Find connection Nick CarlsonLinda Jackson Ben Chapman Erik Stolterman Matthew Carter Robert Hu Malinda Harvey Chad Howell Mary Jackson Amy Butler Martin Neal Elizabeth Gaskell Julia Shelton David Johnson Rick David Johnson Eugene Stevens Linda Jackson Jacob Whitman Malinda Harvey Brad Simons Amy Butler Rachel Bolton Elizabeth Gaskell 2008 2013 LEFT: Rick added Facebook, MySpace, and Twitter to iD. He can choose to add more social media accounts on the top left. In 2008, this graph shows his circle of influence, with Linda, David and Eugene being his closest friends. This is calculated by the frequency of intereactions etc. 2008 RIGHT: By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see how his circle of influence has changed, with Linda still being his closest friend, and Nick being the new best friend. This may be something Rick hasn’t thought about, and he may want to re-engage with his old friends 2013
  • 38. New feature wireframes 2008 2013 Job hunting Recruiters Graduation Living in the bay area: food & entertainment Interviewing with Google Hourly Salary Converter Alumni networking event Gamers’ guild meetup Intel Inteviews My resume San Francisco Bay area crime map and 6 more Gamers’guild meetup Gamers’guild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos games, card games, and board gamges. Next week’s theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear. 17 9 12 Eric Davis 5 Dept Chair Mom What’s happening 2008 2013 Recruiters Graduation Living in the bay area: food & entertainment Interviewing with Google Hourly Salary Converter Alumni networking event Gamers’ guild meetup My resume San Francisco Homes for sale School district ratings Coachella Bay area crime map Mortgage Rate Puppy training classes Trulia loan calculator Annual job review IKEA family member and 6 more Gamers’guild meetup Gamers’guild meetup every Thursday night, starting 6pm. We play videos games, card games, and board gamges. Next week’s theme will be fighting games. Bring your controller or arcade stick and join us for a round of Guilty Gear. 17 Real Estate Agent 23 9 12 Dept Chair Mom LEFT: From the email account Rick used to sign up, iD is able to analyze the data within. In 2008, this graph shows his topic of interest during that time. Each rectangle size correponds to the frequency of topics appeared in the email. Rick had just graduated from college, and was actively looking for jobs. Hover over the squares for more details. 2008 RIGHT: By simply dragging the slider through the timeline towards 2013, you can see how his topic of interest has changed. Rick is now actively looking for a house in San Francisco. The biggest rectangle size shows the frequency of interaction with his real estate agent. 2013
  • 39. 5 / 6
  • 40. @caweena #future Design helps us better understand future possibilities in order to make better decisions today