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Congressional Budget Office
Presentation to the National Association of Home Builders’
Financial Institutions and Capital Markets Subcommittee
October 13, 2020
Phillip L. Swagel
Director
An Overview of
The 2020 Long-Term Budget Outlook
For further information about the venue, see https://tinyurl.com/y2vg95bu.
1
CBO
Federal Debt Held by the Public
2
CBO
The Federal Budget
3
CBO
Total Outlays and Revenues
4
CBO
Components of Outlays
5
CBO
Sources of Revenues
6
CBO
Composition of Federal Deficits
7
CBO
The Size of Policy Changes Needed to Make Federal Debt
Meet Two Possible Goals in 2050
79 Percent of GDP 100 Percent of GDP
Deficit Reduction Needed
Annually, 2025 to 2050 (Percentage of GDP)
3.6 2.9
Total reduction in 2025 (Billions of dollars) 900 730
Per person reduction in 2025 (Dollars) 2,700 2,200
2050 Debt Target
8
CBO
How Timing Affects the Size of Policy Changes Needed to Make
Federal Debt Meet Two Possible Goals in 2050
9
CBO
Population
10
CBO
Average Annual Growth of Real Potential GDP
11
CBO
Composition of Federal Outlays
12
CBO
Interest Rate on 10-Year Treasury Notes
13
CBO
Federal Debt If Total Factor Productivity Growth Differed
14
CBO
Federal Debt If Interest Rates Differed

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