This is a Key NOTE Presentation to COP21- EAC Side Event: 4th December 2015.The presentation looks at the changing climate in East Africa and the climate-smart tools available.

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Climate SMART Tools for East Africa
Key NOTE Presentation to COP21- EAC Side Event: 4th December 2015

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Contributors:
Gideon Galu1 , Christopher Shitote1 , Joseph O Ogutu2, Geoffrey Sabiti3, Christopher
Oludhe4 and Mohammed Y Said5
1USGS/FEWS NET, P.O. Box 66613, Nairobi, Kenya
2 Biostatistics Unit , University of Hohenheim, Fruwirthstrasse 23, 70599 Stuttgart,
Germany
3IGAD Climate Prediction and Applications Centre (ICPAC), P.O. BOX 10304, 00100 -
Dagoretti Corner, Nairobi, Kenya
4University of Nairobi, PO Box 30197-00100 Nairobi, Kenya
5The Centre for Sustainable Dryland Ecosystems and Societies (CSDES), University of
Nairobi, P.O. 30197-00100 Box, Nairobi, Kenya

3. Outline
3
What’s NEW ? – EAC Climate datasets & tools !
Results – Opportunities and Challenges
What are the next steps - Post COP21 ?

4. CLIMATE HAZARDS INFRARED PRECIPITATION
(CHIRP 2.0)
Characteristics :
 IR temperature, FEWS NET Climatology + More Station
Data
Compositing Period:
 5-day (pentadal), and monthly
Spatial Resolution:
 0.05 degree; ~ 5 kilometer
Latency:
 Available 2 days after the end of the composite
Regions:
 Global : 50 to -50 latitude
Climate Hazards Infra-Red Precipitation with
Stations (CHIRPs)
Global Raingauge Obs inputs to CHIRP 2.0
24725 stations Oct. 1981

5. +155 EAC
Rainfall stations
AVAILABLE CLIMATE DATASETS & TOOLS
http://chg.ucsb.edu/data/
Citation: "The climate hazards infrared precipitation with
stations—a new environmental record for monitoring
extremes" in Scientific Data, DOI: 10.1038/sdata.2015.66
chirps@geog.ucsb.edu

6. AVAILABLE CLIMATE DATASETS & TOOLS
http://chg.ucsb.edu/tools/

7. Climate data-
visualization and
analysis tool for
climate risk
mapping”
GeoCLIM
Basic crop
modeling tool for
crop monitoring,
forecasting and
agricultural risk
mapping.”
GeoWRSI
Statistical
forecasting &
Interpretation
tools that allows
for automated
seasonal
forecasts & Early
Warning with
improved spatial
scale .”
GeoCOF
“Dynamic tool
that allows for
integration of
climate changes
and socio-
economic trends
to characterize
changing human
vulnerabilities.”
VIA & A
“Web-based
decision support
information
systems for
monitoring and
analyzing climate
variability trends
and their
impacts.”
EAC
Web-Server
Geospatial tools and datasets developed and supported through strategic partnerships:
USAID/PREPARED Program, ICPAC, CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET , NMS, LVBC and EAC Member States
Decision Support Tools
CHIRPS DRIVEN TOOLS

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SHRINKING MAIZE ZONES – STAPLE CROP
Maize growing zones are declining due to changing climatic stressors and human settlements …
Conclusion:
 Observed drying trends in
medium and marginal
maize growing areas.
 Increased rainfall variability
making difficult for farmers
to predict and plan.
 Warming trends (Tmin and
Tmax) affecting maize yield
at critical stages of seed
development.
 Parts of highly populous
regions of central Kenya
and northeastern Tanzania
showing declining trends
Observed increased rainfall variabilityShrinking changes in rainfall patterns
Maize zones 1990 - 20091960 - 1989
KENYA
UGANDA
TANZANIA
Stable Slightly Highly Extremely

9. MAIZE PRODUCTION per CAPITA
Declining maize production per capita for deficit areas and increasing trends for
some export countries, with consistent declining, but, high inter-annual
variability in rainfall per capita trends…
Conclusion:
Source: FAOSTAT data
1. Observed high inter-annual
maize production per capita
trends in past 5 decades.
2. Also, highly variable, but,
declining annual rainfall per
capita trends.
3. National agriculture policies
and export strategies, have
encouraged increased maize
production in Uganda, Tanzania
and Rwanda..

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DRYING RAINFALL TRENDS
WARMING TRENDS
KENYA DECLINING COFFEE PRODUCTION
Conclusion:
1. Area under coffee declined by
35% and production by 62%.
2. Global prices increased by over
300% per ton in the last decade.
3. Observed warming and drying
trends in hitherto coffee
growing areas have affected
yield.
4. Worsened by increased
population density and high
incentive for property
development.

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KENYA DECLINING COFFEE PRODUCTION
“Every 1◦C rise in Tmin will result in annual yield losses of 137 ± 16.87 kg ha−1(P = 1.80e-10)”
Craparo ACW, et al, Journal of Agricultural & Forestry Meteorology, (2015)
.
Kiambu – Windsor hotel and real estate properties, formerly a large coffee estate Tmin Trend
Estimated Kenya Population Density
Urban Heating?

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2015 ETHIOPIA: WORST DROUGHT THAN 1984 !
Recent FEWS NET & Partners Assessment in Afar & Sitti Regions of Ethiopia
Is climate change changing ENSO events
coupled with increasing populations,
worsening their adverse impacts ?

13. Vulnerability Impact Assessment & Adaptation
Questions:
• Who is vulnerable?
• Why are they vulnerable?
• What are their adaptive
capacities?
Demand for geospatial Data &
Analytical Tools:
• Historical climate trends and
future climate scenario’s
• Socio-economic trends
• Local Capacities
Source: CIESIN
“characterize changing human vulnerabilities….”
EAC - VULNERABILITY INDEX MAPPING APPROACH:
Supported through USAID/PREPARED Program

14. Source: VIA analysis supported by USAID/PREPARED Program partners
(CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET and EAC Member states)
=
Vulnerability Index Map
FEWS NET
Food Insecurity Frequency map
EAC/PREPARED Program – VULNERABILITY INDEX MAPPING

15. Source: VIA analysis supported by CIESEN, RCMRD, FEWSNET and EAC Member states
COMMUNITY BASED ADAPTATION ACTIVITY (CBA)
Objectives
1. Identify climate change
“hot-spots” at community-
level, their risks and
adaptation strategies.
2. Show case climate change
adaptation best practices in
the region.
3. Support small scale pilot
climate change adaptation
project at community level
Practical field training and support
Lake Victoria Basin
Commission – VIA Map
Goal: To Establish and enhance climate change risks adaptive capacities of
community groups in selected hot-spots in East Africa.

16.  Ownership (formal agreements)
 Data and information sharing (policies)
 Data Rescue (DARE initiative)
 Building sustainable networks
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
NUMBEROFSTATIONDATA
YEARS
HISTOGRAM OF RAINFALL STATION DATA SERIES IN UGANDA
TANZANIA DARE INITIATIVE (12/2015)
EMERGING CHALLENGES & OPPORTUNITIES

17. NEXT STEPS – POST COP21!
 Build sustainable EAC - Climate Change Network
Agriculture &
Food Security
Energy Health WaterDisaster Risk
Reduction
 Enhance quality, quantity and applications of climate services
in-line with WMO/Global Framework of Climate Services

18. FEWS NET is a multi-agency food security
monitoring and assessment effort
EAC
Implementing
Institutions
Support
Technical
Teams
EAC-PREPARED
Building on existing local and international capacities
LEVERAGING ON STRATEGIC PARTNERSHIPS

19. For More Information:
www.eac.int
www.icpac.net
www.fews.net
www.rcmrd.org
http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews