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Amazon: an objective case study (presentation to London Book Fair 2015

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Is Amazon going to take over the world of books? These slides illustrated my talk to the London Book Fair, April 2015, to look at
• whether Amazon is the cause of bookshops closing
• whether Amazon's media sales will keep expanding forever
• if e-readers and ebooks will take over the market
• what's happening to sales of Amazon's own hardware
• the financial questions (not tax) about its business

Published in: Business, Internet, Technology
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Amazon: an objective case study (presentation to London Book Fair 2015

  1. A M A Z O N : A N O B J E C T I V E C A S E S T U D Y C H A R L E S A R T H U R Photo by hnnbz - http://flic.kr/p/qNtyAK
  2. A M A Z O N : A N O B J E C T I V E C A S E S T U D Y C H A R L E S A R T H U R About me: Technology journalist - 
 The Guardian (2005-2014), 
 The Independent (1995-2004) Author: “Digital Wars: Apple, Google, Microsoft and the Battle for the Internet”
  3. Study of the UK petroleum retail market. A Final Report for DECC 14 December 2012 C A L A M I T O U S !
  4. D I S A S T R O U S !
  5. Study of the UK petroleum retail market. A Final Report for DECC 14 December 2012 A M A Z O N D O E S N ’ T S E L L P E T R O L (Petrol filling stations)
  6. A M A Z O N D O E S N ’ T R U N P U B S *
  7. W H AT ’ S C A U S I N G W H AT ?
  8. A M A Z O N H A S T R O U B L E T O O • Amazon might not be the cause of all the problems in the book industry. (Depending what you think those problems are.) • In fact Amazon has its 
 own problems.
  9. M E D I A S A L E S G R O W T H : S L O W I N G
  10. K I N D L E U P TA K E H A S S TA L L E D
  11. E B O O K S H AV E T H E I R U S E S • Median reading 5 books per year (4 for men, 6 for women) • “mean” is 10 and 14 - so more women read more books
  12. A M A Z O N : A M B I T I O U S I N H A R D WA R E tablet smartphone Kindle Echo, Dash..
  13. S TA L L I N G S A L E S M E A N S . .
  14. S TA L L I N G S A L E S M E A N S . .
  15. T H E F I R E P H O N E : B I G A M B I T I O N
  16. T H E F I R E P H O N E : B I G A M B I T I O N
  17. TA B L E T S S O L D P O O R LY Total sold: about 30m
  18. T I M E F O R 
 T H E G O O D N E W S
  19. K I N D L E S E L F P U B L I S H I N G ! • Yes, it’s full of rubbish • It’s the world’s biggest slush pile • But with one key advantage…
  20. O T H E R S R E A D I T F O R Y O U • They find what they like • It’s democratic • It produces best-sellers that turn into films • Like this:
  21. T I M E F O R 
 T H E B A D N E W S ( P E R H A P S )
  22. • Amazon focuses on “free cash flow” • “the cash a company is able to generate after laying out the money required to maintain or expand its asset base.” • “Earnings can often be clouded by accounting gimmicks, but it's tougher to fake cash flow” ‘ F R E E C A S H F L O W ’ V WA L L S T
  23. Q U E S T I O N S A R E C O M I N G
  24. C O N C L U S I O N S • Amazon’s media sales growth is slowing down • Ebooks and e-readers have a natural sales ceiling • Amazon doesn’t dominate in hardware • Ebooks bring possibilities • Wall St may start questioning Amazon’s accounting
  25. C H A R L E S A R T H U R T H A N K Y O U

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