2014 iGap - assumptions and experiments
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The document outlines techniques for collaborative experimentation at innovative companies. It discusses identifying assumptions, brainstorming experiments to test assumptions, and designing small, fast experiments to validate hypotheses quickly. Teams work independently to generate assumptions and experiments, which are then reviewed collectively to select the highest priority experiments to run. The goal is to fail fast through low-cost experiments in order to learn quickly and reduce risks.
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2014 iGap - assumptions and experiments
- 1. Experiments Bootcamp Techniques for collaborative teams at innovative companies. Janice Fraser January 2014
- 4. Assumptions My assumption: You don’t want to waste your time, your career, your patience, or your friendship building something that has little chance of success. © 2014 LUXr.co
- 5. Identify assumptions Use a sharpie and sticky notes Work independently, Write one idea per sticky. Come up with 10 assumptions you have about your company. © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co © 2014 LUXr.co
- 6. Divide into 2 piles Everything else Will kill the company in the next 6 months if we’re wrong © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co © 2014 LUXr.co
- 7. To the wall. Review & de-dupe © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co © 2014 LUXr.co
- 8. Stack rank the urgents © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co © 2014 LUXr.co “Which must we validate first?”
- 9. Pick the top one © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co © 2014 LUXr.co
- 10. Examples 1. Many people will pay to have someone get dogfood or have odd jobs done. 2. People want to run errands like getting dogfood. 3. We believe it is legal in the country of operation 4. This service is useful for disorganized people. 5. This service is useful to time-poor people. 6. 7. © 2014 LUXr.co
- 11. Things To Note Broad ideation helps us find the best thoughts. For fast ideation have a specific prompt, work independently, use paper and pen, set a time limit, and define a number of ideas to create. Ideation applies to many logical thought processes, not just identifying features. Ideation must be followed by efficient decision-making. Arbitrary decisions are necessary when you have little or no data. For best results, do ideation with multiple people. Multi-person ideation relieves pressure for anyone to be a “genius”. Independent ideation, followed by group understanding, followed by fast decision-making is a uniquely efficient pattern of work. © LUXR.CO 2014
- 12. © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co © 2014 LUXr.co
- 13. Experiment Framework 3 parts: 1. Hypothesis that is provable/disprovable 2. The experiment itself; the thing you build 3. An indicator of result © 2014 LUXr.co
- 14. Experiment Framework Every experiment has three parts: 1. A hypothesis that is provable/disprovable 2. The experiment itself; the thing you build 3. An indicator of result For Example: We believe people like [customer type] have a need for [need/action/behavior]. The smallest thing we can do to prove that need is [experiment]. We will know we have succeeded when [quantitative/measurable outcome] or [qualitative/observable outcome]. © 2014 LUXr.co
- 15. State the assumption as a hypothesis © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co You must be able to prove or disprove this. © 2014 LUXr.co
- 16. Design an experiment to learn if this is true. Briefly describe it, using the three parts. © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co State how you will know if the hypothesis is valid or invalid. This can be quantitative evidence or qualitative. How much time/money/effort will it take? © 2014 LUXr.co
- 17. At the Wall Review & Select © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co © 2014 LUXr.co
- 18. On a fresh sheet, redesign the experiment What would you do to get approximately the same learning... © 2013 LUXr.co © 2013 LUXr.co IN 2 DAYS? IN 2 WEEKS? IN 2 MONTHS? © 2014 LUXr.co
- 19. Discuss, then pick the experiment to run. __ _________ ____ _ ve that _ _________ e belie © 2013 LUXr.co___ w ___ ___2013_LUXr.co _________ ___ © __ _ _________ _____ _________ ____ ____ _ el _ __ _______ ___ ___b__ieve that __ ________ _________ _________ _________we __ ___ ___ ____ _ ____ _____________ __________ ve that _ ______ ____ ______ _________ e belie w ___ ___ __ ___ ____ _________ _ _ ________________ __________ _________ _________ _ _________ _ _________ ___ ___ ___ ___ ___ ____ __________ _________ __ __ _______________ _ _________ _________ _ _________ __ _________ __ __ ___ ___ ___ _________ __________ _________ __ _ _________ eeks. __________ _________ _________ _ ___ ___ 2w _________ _________ ______ in _ ___ _________ _________ _________ _________ _ ___ ___ _________ _________ _____ ___ s. _________ _________ _________ 2 month ___ ___ _ in . _________ _________ __ __ ays __ in 2 d _ © 2014 _____ _ LUXr.co ___ ✔
- 20. Experiments that were designed assumption © 2014 LUXr.co experiment measurable/observable outcome
- 21. More Things To Note Progress not a function of the quality, size, or # of releases. Smallification can be done by adjusting scope or fidelity. Smaller/faster experiments are usually better. Behavioral experiments are usually better. Small, behavioral experiments are usually best. Founders must balance size/quality and speed of learning. The best option is often not obvious. There is usually insufficient data to make a rational decision The decision-maker is therefore often going to be wrong. Wrong decisions are expected and usually not fatal. Progress is measured in sequential cycles of learning. © LUXR.CO 2014
- 22. Thank You! @clevergirl janice fraser. © LUXR.CO 2014