Exercise workbook for scenario planning

1. A E i W kb k f SBI’ S iAn Exercise Workbook for SBI’s Scenario
Planning Process
Prepared for:
Technology Management and Commercializationgy g
Training Workshop
Prepared by:
Dr. Chulho Park
Vice President
Strategic Business Insights
1
St ateg c us ess s g ts
August 2018

2. A Workbook for SBI’s Scenario
Planning Process
2

3. SBI’s Scenario Development Methodologyp gy
Step 1
Identify Decision
F
S 2
Focus
Step 2
Identify Key
External Factors
Step 3
Identify External
Forces
Step 4
Select Axes of
Uncertainty
Step 6
Analyze Decision
Implications
Step 5
3
Select Scenarios,
Write Force Table

4. SBI’s Scenario Process for Strategic Planningg g
Creating Scenarios Developing Strategy
Strategic Need
D i i F 1
Strategy Description
Decision Focus1
Key External Factors2
Strategy Selection
Strategy Alternatives
External Forces3 Sign Posts
(Roadmaps)
Axes of Uncertainty
Implications
(Opportunities)
Scenarios
4
External environment
Strategy/Action
1 Decision Focus = What you need to decide (in terms of actions you can take)
2 Key External Factors = What would you most like to know regarding the actual state of
the world in the 5-10 years before you make your decisions
3 Forces = The developments, events, and circumstances that determine the state of the
world in 5-10 years

5. Step 1: Identify Decision Focus and Elementsp y
 Corporate strategic decisions with long-termp g g
consequences and major uncertainties become the
focal points for scenario development
 Work with company management and /or scenario
team to specify key long-term decisions for which
scenarios are to be developedscenarios are to be developed
 Identify key elements of these decisions
5

6. Step 1: Identify Decision Focusp y
Decision Focus
Describe the decision focus briefly!
Decision Elements
 Element-1
 Element-2
– Subelement-1
– Subelement-2
 Element-3
Subelement 1
6
– Subelement-1

7. Case Example:
Step 1: Identify Decision Focusp y
Decision Focus
Identification of business opportunities for Taiwan economic
development related with green energy area for next 10 years
Decision Elements
 Specific business needs and opportunities in the following key
focus areas:
– Renewable energy
A t ti– Automotive
– Smart grid
 Action items to satisfy the identified business needs
7

8. Step 2: Identify Key External Factorsp y y
 Specify the key factors (both external and internal) that
affect the outcome of the decisionsaffect the outcome of the decisions
 Focus the key external factors, e.g.:
Market size growth and volatility– Market size, growth, and volatility
– Competing products and technological substitutes
– Economic conditions and price trendsp
– Capital availability and cost
– Human, material, and other resources
 The more that is known about the status of these factors,
the better the quality of the decision will be.
8

9. Step 2: Table of Key External Factorsp y
Key External Factors
Please write down
Key External Factor - 1
Please write down
Key External Factor - 3
Please write down
Key External Factor - 2
Please write down
Key External Factor - 4
Please write down
Key External Factor - 6
Please write down
Key External Factor - 5
9

10. Case Example:
Step 2: Table of Key External Factorsp y
Key External Factors
Market Demand
(Renewable energy,
automotive, and SG)
Regulation
(Renewable energy,
automotive, and SG)
Industry Structure
(Renewable energy,
automotive, and SG)
Global Economy Science and TechnologyEnergy S/D and Price
10

11. Step 3: Identify External Forcesp y
 Identify the external forces that determine the futurey
status of the key decision factors
– Micro forces: trends in the market and industry such as shifts
i t d t t i f titiin customer needs, restructuring of competition, new
technology
– Macro drivers: broad social, economic, political, andp
technological forces such as demographic trends, economic
growth and development, trade patterns, political shifts
 The aim here is to build good “conceptual model” of The aim here is to build good conceptual model of
the relevant business environment
11

12. Step 3: Table of Key External Forcesp y
Key External Factors and Their Forces
External Factor-1
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
F 4
External Factor-3
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
F 4
External Factor-2
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
F 4• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5
External Factor-4
• Force-1
• Force-2
F 3
External Factor-6
• Force-1
• Force-2
F 3
External Factor-5
• Force-1
• Force-2
F 3• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
12

13. Case Example:
Step 3: Table of Key External Forcesp y
Key External Factors and Their Forces
Market Demand
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
F 4
Regulation
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
F 4
Industry Structure
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
F 4• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5
Global Economy
• Force-1
• Force-2
F 3
Science and Technology
• Force-1
• Force-2
F 3
Energy S/D and Price
• Force-1
• Force-2
F 3• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
13

14. Case Example:
Step 3: Table of Key External Forcesp y
Key External Factors and Their Forces
MarketDemand
• Natural resources availability- rare
earth, oil
Regulation
• Carbon Tax (tax for CO2 emission)
• Incentives or subsidies for green
Industry Structure
• EV and HEV charging systems
Health of Major Carmakers
• Government Incentive (subsidies,
regulatory requirements)
• Corporate Social Responsibility
• Consumer demand for sustainable
solutions
• Quota for renewable energy or
transportation
• Regulations for Existing Building
(for conservation)
G B ildi l ti
• Health of Major Carmakers
• Entrance of new players
• New car makers from BRIC
regions
N f t i d l
Consumer demand for sustainable
lifestyle
• Consumer wallet share for green
product
• Cost parity of green vs. traditional
• Green Building regulations
• Micro-generation market regulation
• Government control of utility prices
• Government mandate smart grid
standard
A ti i d t l ti
• New manufacturing model
• New Business Models for
Renewable Energy
• Role of public transportation
• Corporate fleet conversion
• Anti-incandescent regulations
14

15. Step 3: Identify External Forces
• Agree on high-impact forces
Determine High-Impact/High-Uncertainty Forces
p y
Agree on high impact forces
• From the high-impact forces, flag those with low uncertainty
External Forces Impact/Uncertainty
Framework
Customer Priorities
Sales
Channels Chip Manufacturers
Design/CAD Technology
Political
Leaders
Work Patterns
Education and
Learning
Populations Shifts
Framework
High Impact
Low
Uncertainty
Key External Factors and Forces Likely to Impact Current Strategy
Non-Environmental
regulations and
Geopolitics and
Economics
Voice of Customer
• 2005 Force 1
Internet
Crime and Security
Public Attitudes
Competitive Structure
Use of Media
Leaders
New Products
Technology
Electronic
Commerce
Privacy
Industrialization
Patterns
Value Chains
y
Impact
High Impact
High
Uncertainty
Standards
• 2005 Force 1
• 2005 Force 2
• Etc.
• New Forces
• 2005 Force 1
• 2005 Force 2
• Etc.
• New Forces
• 2005 Force 2
• Etc.
• New Forces
Energy and Industry Progress Technology Progress
Supply Capacity
Environment
Cost of Goods Sold
Social Priorities
p
Healthcare
Price
Health of OECD
Economies
Perceptions of Risk
Change Leader Attitudes
U t i t
Energy and
Environment
• 2005 Force 1
• 2005 Force 2
• Etc.
• New Forces
Industry Progress
• 2005 Force 1
• 2005 Force 2
• Etc.
• New Forces
Technology Progress
• 2005 Force 1
• 2005 Force 2
• Etc.
• New Force
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Customer
Experiences
Capital
New Media Techniques
Corporate Demographics
Uncertainty
Ignore “Low Impact” Forces

16. Step 3: Evaluation of External Forces with Regard to
Impact and Uncertaintyp y
Low Med High
Uncertainty
g
L
o
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
Force 4
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
Force 4
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
Force 4
w
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-1
• Force-2
t
M
e
d
• Force-2
• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-2
• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-2
• Force-3
• Force-4
• Force-5
Impac
H
i
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
• Force 4
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
• Force 4
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force-3
• Force 4
16
g
h
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5
• Force-4
• Force-5

17. Step 4: Select Axes of Uncertainty and Describe their
End-Points
 Axes are (1) based on the high impact/high( ) g p g
uncertainty external forces/drivers, and (2) encompass
the full range of uncertainty that is to be factored into
decision makingdecision-making
 Examples of Axes of Uncertainty are:
D l ti l ti– Deregulation or re-regulation
– World moves toward protectionism or further free trade
High or low energy price– High or low energy price
– High or low product demand growth
17

18. Step 4: Select Axes of Uncertainty and Describe their
End-Points
 The names of axes of uncertainty can be frequentlyy q y
matched with (or driven from) the clusters of key decision
factors in Step 2, such as demand, economy, technology,
competition regulation resource etccompetition, regulation, resource, etc.
 Describe the opposite end-points of each Axes
f Describe how 5-10 high impact, high-uncertainty forces
would play out at each end of the axis.
18

19. Step 4: Axes of Uncertaintyp y
Axis of Uncertainty:
List of Related External Forces
• Force-5
• Force-6
• Force 7
• Force-1
• Force-2
• Force 3
Name of One End Point of the Axis: Name of the Other End Point of the Axis:
• Force-7
• Force-8
• Force-3
• Force-4
Brief Description of the End Point: Brief Description of the End Point:
19

20. Case Example:
Step 4: Axes of Uncertaintyp y
Axis of Uncertainty: Economy
List of Related External Forces
• Middle east stability
• Price of oil
C b t
• Regional GDP
• Forming of regional trading block
N k f BRIC i
Name of One End Point of the Axis: Name of the Other End Point of the Axis:
• Carbon tax
• Chinese economy stability
• New car makers from BRIC regions
• Region unemployment level
Brief Description of the End Point: Brief Description of the End Point:
Flourish Recession
• GDP decreases
• GDP increases
• Increase unemployment ratio
• Green product will lost opportunity because of
decreasing oil price
• Decreasing market demand
• Increase trading barriers to protect regional
GDP increases
• Middle east political stability will enhance the
need of green products
• Increasing in the consumption of oil will
enhance carbon tax
20
economy

21. Step 5: Select Scenariosp
 Examine combinations of end points of the Axes of
U t i t f t ti l iUncertainty for potential scenarios
 Select a set of scenarios (normally 3) for detailed
elaborationelaboration
– The aim should be to cover as much as possible of the “envelope of
planning uncertainty”p g y
 Briefly and quickly describe each selected scenario in terms
of its macro drivers, micro (industry, market) forces and the
f h k d i i foutcomes for the key decision factors
21

22. Step 5: List of All Potential Scenariosp
Scenario# Axis 1: Axis 2: Axis 3: Eval
1
2
33
4
5
6
7
88
22

23. Case Example:
Step 5: List of All Potential Scenariosp
Scenario# Economy Demand for Green Products Technology Development Eval
1 Recession High Breakthrough
2 Recession High Incremental ☺
3 Recession Low Breakthrough ☺3 Recession Low Breakthrough ☺
4 Recession Low Incremental
5 Flourish High Breakthrough
6 Flourish High Incremental ☺
7 Flourish Low Breakthrough
8 Flourish Low Incremental8 Flourish Low Incremental
23

24. Step 5: Brief Description of the Selected Scenariosp p
Scenario No.
Scenario Name
Axis 1:
A i 2Axis 2:
Axis 3:
Brief Description
24

25. Case Example:
Step 5: Brief Description of the Selected Scenarios
Scenario No 6
p p
Scenario No. 6
Scenario Name Show me Green
Axis 1: Economy Flourish
Axis 2:Demand of Green High
Axis 3:Technology Incremental
Brief Description Regional GDP sustained to growth. Rapid greenp g g p g
demand growth and environmental awareness
rising demanding for green technology
increasing, but the green technology could notg g gy
break through the bottleneck.
25

26. Step 6: Write Force Table and Detailed Scenariosp
 The Force Table lists all the high-impact, high-uncertainty
f i th l ft l f h t Th 3 i titlforces in the left column of a chart. The 3 scenario titles are
listed as the 3 column headers across the top of the chart.
 Write brief descriptions of how each force will play out in Write brief descriptions of how each force will play out in
each scenario
 You can decompose the Force Table work into several You can decompose the Force Table work into several
groups based on participants’ expertise. For example,
technology experts take charge of technical external forces,
and b siness e perts can fill p b siness and economicand business experts can fill up business and economic
related external forces.
 After completing the Force Table use it to write the
26
 After completing the Force Table use it to write the
Scenarios in a narrative style.

27. Step 6: Force Table and Detailed Scenariosp
Scenario --> Scenario A Scenario B Scenario C
External Forces
27

28. Case Example:
Step 6: Force Table and Detailed Scenariosp
Axis: Technology Development
Scenario --> Green Dream Wait for Dawn Show Me Green
Incremental Breakthrough Incremental
External Forces
Breakthrough in Battery The efficiency improved a little bit,
but the durability issue not resolved
Matured mass-production tech of
new material (such as LiFePO4)
Power density ≧ 170 AH/g; Cycle
time ≧ 5times of LiCoO2; Cost ≦
Currently, cost of an EV battery ~ 0.25
USD/mile (including one replacement
packs and electricty cost); Internal
combustion engine ~0 1USD/mile
1/1000 of LiCoO2 or LiMnO2
combustion engine 0.1USD/mile,
cost parity may take 10 years
Smart Building
Technology
Great difficulties on accommodating
smart technologies with existing
buildings
Increase green material usage;
Artifice intelligence product will save
energy and decrease co2 emission;
Promote automotive sensor facility
Lack of smart grid infrastructure;
Diffcult integrate information
management system (ex. lighting
control power management andy control, power management and
HVAC control)
Breakthrough in
Photovotaic
The efficiency is improved, but not
yet reach 30%, which makes the
return forever without governmental
subsidy
Power generation cost ≦ $0.1/
kWH; Module MFG cost ≦ $0.5/W;
Module efficiency: c-Si ≧ 25%, a-Si
≧ 18% CIS ≧ 25% OPV ≧15%
While the use of solar energy long-
standing, but in view of energy
conversion and preservation of
technical difficulties, since the use ofsubsidy ≧ 18%, CIS ≧ 25%, OPV ≧15% ,
solar energy is still not widely
available.
Breakthrough in Electric
Charging Technology
Cost saving & charging more
efficiency; Decrease the
dependence on oil consumption of
hi l I h b id hi l
For large scale EV charging, smart
GRID is necessary, which require
new technolgy / standarization /
28
vehicle; Increase hybrid vehicle
amount
infrastructure, 10 years is not
enough

29. Step 7: Analyze Decision Implicationsp y p
 Analyze the scenarios to identify their implications for the
specified decision focus
 Focus on:
– Opportunities and threats for each scenario and across all scenarios
– Critical issues emerging from the scenarios
 Evaluate implications for strategy considerations and options
29

30. Step 7: Analyze Decision Implicationsp y p
 Analysis of decision implication is often conductedy p
backward.
 For example, a process for opportunity search, under
each scenario is the following: Identify business
opportunity/threat,  technical needs to address those
identified opportunities and/or threats  technologies toidentified opportunities and/or threats,  technologies to
solve those technical needs
 Analysis of decision implication starts from evaluatingy p g
impact of external forces, key decision factors, and then
decision elements and focus.
30

31. Step 7: SWOT Analysis under the Selected Scenariosp y
Scenario:
Strengths
• Item-1
• Item-2
• Item-3
Weaknesses
• Item-1
• Item-2
• Item-3Item 3
• Item-4
• Item-5
• Item-6
Item 3
• Item-4
• Item-5
• Item-6
O t iti Th tOpportunities
• Item-1
• Item-2
• Item-3
Threats
• Item-1
• Item-2
• Item-3
• Item-4
• Item-5
• Item-6
• Item-4
• Item-5
• Item-6
31

32. Case Example:
Step 7: SWOT Analysis under the Selected Scenariosp y
Scenario: SHOW ME GREEN
Strengths
• Highly-educated work force
• Manufacturing compentence
• Flexible Eco-system
Weaknesses
• Lack of confidence
• Financial
• Lack of core technologyFlexible Eco system
• Strong SMEs
• Good in semiconductor and optoelectronics
related manufacturing
• Good communication with China
• Lack of core technology
• Weakness of product design
• Lack of government support
Opportunities Threats
• Labor cost increasing and Labor striking
• Competition from China and south Korea
• Difficulties of entries to Euro, US, etc.. Markets,
e g IP and other protections like anti-trust
• Vertical integration by strategic alliances on EV
• Key technologies development (or licensing
programs), especially semiconductor or
optoelectronics related to improve green energy e.g. IP and other protections like anti-trust
• Political uncertainty
• Key materials limit
optoelectronics related, to improve green energy
conversion and storage efficiencies.
• Create own brand or co-brand on EV, especially in
China market
• Off-grid applications in BRIC, e.g. stand along /
portable lighting, low cost solar chargeable
32
p g g, g
batteries, small generators using green energy etc

33. Step 7: Need Analysis Based on SWOT Tablesp y
Scenario:
Business Needs (Opportunities & Threats) Required Actions to Satisfy the Needs
• Business Need • Required Actrion-1
• Required Actrion-2q
• Required Actrion-3
• Business Need • Required Actrion-1
• Required Actrion-2
• Required Actrion-3
• Business Need • Required Actrion-1
• Required Actrion-2
• Required Actrion-3
33

34. Case Example:
Step 7: Need Analysis Based on SWOT Tablesp y
Scenario: Green Dream
Business Needs (Opportunities & Threats) Required Actions to Satisfy the Needs
Smart grid sensors supplier
- Develop sensor design technology
- Develop manufacturing technologies (ICT and MEMS) for
sensors for example: micromachining
- Collaborate with sensor solution provider on software
design
- Participate in smart grid and other standard committee to
establish smart grid standard
- Sensor network design and integration
Smart grid solution provider/integrator
Se so e o des g a d eg a o
- Identify data to gather – application development
- Deployment of sensor network
- Participate in smart grid and other standard committee to
establish smart grid standard
- Collaborate with utility companies to understand need
Energy Management Service Provider (B2B, B2G)
- Energy monitoring device, including sensors
- Development of energy software simulation tools
- Develop energy use optimization techniques
Develop expertise in understanding regulations and
34
- Develop expertise in understanding regulations and
building codes
- Develop energy auditing capability

35. Alternative Forms
Step 7: Business Need Analysis (Alternative Form)p y ( )
Scenario: __________________________
Business Needs in ____________________________ Relative
Importance
11.
2.
3.
35

36. Alternative Forms
Step 7: Technical Need Identificationp
Scenario: __________________________
Business/Technology Area:
Business Needs Technical Needs
1.
Business/Technology Area: __________________________
1.
2.
3.
36

37. Alternative Forms
Step 7: Key Technology Identificationp y gy
Scenario: __________________________
Business/Technology Area:
Technical Needs Technologies (Potential Solutions)
1.
Business/Technology Area: __________________________
1.
2.
3.
37

38. Alternative Forms
Step 7: Alternative Format for Need Identificationp
Scenario: _________________________________
Description
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________
Need
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________
Skills/Technologies Required
___________________________________________________________________
___________________________________________
Additional Notes (required investment, related technologies, etc.)
___________________________________________________________________
38
___________________________________________________________________
_______________________________

39. Alternative Forms
Step 7: Strength/Weakness Identificationp g
Scenario: __________________________
Business/Technology Area:
Company’s Strength Company’s Weakness
1. 1.
Business/Technology Area: __________________________
1. 1.
2. 2.
3. 3.
39

40. Step 8: Strategy Developmentp gy p
Description of Strategy: __________________________________________________
________________________________________________________________________
Scenario Advantage Disadvantage
40

41. Step 9: Development of Signpostsp p g p
“Forces”
(Important forces and
Dynamics)
“Indicators”
(Element or condition of “forces”
To watch, taken from scenarios)
“Measures”
(Events, data, information that define
element or condition of “indicators”)
“Signposts”
(Significant threshold“measures” that
are judged to be clear indications)
41

42. Step 9: Development of Signpostsp p g p
“Forces” “indicators” “Measures” “Signposts”g p
42

43. R d ti f C d tiRecommendations for Conducting
the Workshop Process
43

44. Participant Selectionp
 No more than 15 individuals in the workshop group, including
facilitator and recorder
 Mix of technical, economic, and market expertise
 Both insiders and outsiders to the organization
 Known “out-of the box” thinkers
 Decision makers if possible
44

45. Workshop Logisticsp g
 The basic issues in establishing the right physical setting are
geographic locations, workshop room, and support staff services
Geographic location: Convenient, yet workshop participants can’t be
th i ffi
g g p , p , pp
near their offices
Workshop room(s): Large enough to accommodate 15 persons easily;
access to break-out session rooms available
Equipment: Overhead projector, two easels with flip charts
Support staff services: Access to telephones, copy machines, typing
services, etc .,
45

46. Workshop Rolesp
 Successful scenario development workshops require that the
people perform four well-defined roles
– Facilitator — helps group focus energy on tasks
– Recorder — captures ideas and results of the discussion
– Group members — active participants in the workshop
– Manager or chairperson — sets the agenda and has the power to set
constraints
46

47. Facilitator Role
 The facilitator is methodology guide, workshop manager, and
logistics officer. Key functions of the facilitator are:
– Set the group climate
– Define the tasks, process, deliverables, and time
– Encourage group participation; protect members of group
– Monitor the group’s performance
47

48. Recorder Role
 The responsibility of the recorder is to serve as the group memory
by making a record of what is happening as it appears
 Group memory serves to:
– Focus the group on a task
– Provide an instant record of a workshop’s content and process
– Provide a psychic release for participants who do not have to hold on
and defend their ideas
– Prevents repetition and wheel spinning
– Encourages participation because it respects individuals’ ideas
– Enables participants to check that their ideas have been recorded
properly
– Increases a group’s sense of accomplishment
48

49. Group Member Rolep
 The group member is an active participant in the workshop and
devotes most of his or her energy to the main task of the workshop
 To fulfill their roles, the group members must:
– Take responsibility for the success of the meeting
– Respect and listen to other individuals
– Ensure that their ideas are recorded properly
Try to keep an open mind– Try to keep an open mind
– Refrain from making premature negative comments
49

50. Manager or Chairperson Roleg p
 The manager of chairperson assumes responsibility for the group’s
performance of its duties. Typically, key duties of the manager or
chairperson are to:
– Set the agenda
Set constraints for the workshop– Set constraints for the workshop
– Act as a full participant in the group
– Regain control of the workshop if its progress is unsatisfactory
– Be accountable to the larger organization for the quality of the
workshop output
– Act as a spokesperson or representative of the group to the larger– Act as a spokesperson or representative of the group to the larger
corporation
50

51. Process Deliverables
 Background reading
 Workshop briefing books Workshop briefing books
 Focus research papers
 Scenario descriptions Scenario descriptions
 Record of workshop results
51

52. Briefing Materials Before the Workshopsg p
 Objectives
– Develop common understanding among group members of basic– Develop common understanding among group members of basic
industry and technology issues
– Stimulate consideration of new ideas and concepts
 Selection Criteria
– Readable
– Mixture of facts and assessments– Mixture of facts and assessments
– Different sources
– Address micro (industry) and macro (economic, political, social) issues
– Total amount should require less than 4 hours of reading
52

53. Focus Papersp
 Objectives
– Improve understanding of key external forces for the group– Improve understanding of key external forces for the group
– Characterize the uncertainties of the focus
– Identify potential decision implications for the organization
 Scope
– Three to six papers
– Each three pages long
– Prepared by scenario team members
– Briefly discussed in workshopsBriefly discussed in workshops
53

54. Final Reportp
 Objectives
– Include record of scenario technology forecasting workshop results– Include record of scenario technology forecasting workshop results
– Serve as basis for communicating results of the case study
– Be input to future decision making efforts
 Contents
– Introduction
– Focus of Scenario Technology Forecasting
– Key Decision Factors
– Micro and Macro Forces Influencing EnvironmentMicro and Macro Forces Influencing Environment
– Axes of Uncertainty
– Scenario Descriptions
54
– Scenario Implications

55. Key Success Factorsy
 Workshop plan: detailed step-by-step plan of workshop; notes,
identification of roles for each step; detailed schedule
 Good mix of technical, market, and economic expertise on project
team
 Willi f b t thi k “ t f th b ” Willingness of group members to think “out-of-the-box”
 Full participation by group members in workshop discussions and
in the research
 Understanding of how the results will be used once the process is
completed
55

56. Workshop Planp
 The Workshop Plan is a detailed description of timetable, activities,
and responsibilities in the workshop
 The following is a section from an example workshop Plan
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57. Workshop Plan for Scenario Development (Example)p p ( p )
Prepara-
tion
Preparation Activities and Comments
Three weeks
before
SD Team Send highlights of technology situation in SD to SBI team (current
investments, capabilities, interests, etc.)
Two weeks
before
SBI Team Collect and send briefing materials to seed team
W k h TWorkshop
#1
Team
Member Workshop Activities and Comments
Day 1
15 minutes
SBI
Facilitator
Personal introductions of everyone.
45 minutes SBI Review scenario-base technology process steps
Facilitator
gy p p
Review facilitation issues and techniques
Go over agenda for the next 3 days
Highlight workshop roles to be conducted by SBI and seed team members.
15 minutes SBI15 minutes SBI
Facilitator
Review with seed team the scope of the market/technology focus
15 m inutes SBI
Facilitator
Review Step #1 of scenario development process (developing the focus and
decision elements)
Highlight responsibilities for everyone
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g g p y