1. SBI’ E l T h l R d iSBI’s Exploratory Technology Roadmapping
Processes
Prepared for:
T h l M t d C i li tiTechnology Management and Commercialization
Training Workshop
Prepared by:Prepared by:
Dr. Chulho Park
Vice President
S
1
Strategic Business Insights
July 2018
3. Nokia’s Growth Through Branching into
Telecommunications
Revenue from
Telecommunications
Revenue from Old
Product Lines
Telecommunications
1986 1996
Source: Nokia financial data; SRI Consulting
Between 1986 and 1996, telecommunications grew from 17% to 90% of Nokia’s
revenue. Total revenue nearly tripled to $9.5 billion during this period.
3
4. The Importance of Branchingp g
Organizations can reinvent themselves by branching into new
product lines:
– Innovation
– Acquisition
E l f i ith d t t d biliti t b h Examples of companies with demonstrated abilities to branch:
– HP – Motorola
– 3M – Sony
– Johnson & Johnson – GE
Branching may be the only way to ensure long-term survival as
environmental changes make old product lines obsoleteenvironmental changes make old product lines obsolete
Managers who focus on long-term growth seize opportunities to
launch new value streams, which helps ensure organizational
survival
4
survival
5. Growth Through Branchingg g
Branching Point New Product or Business Unit
Original Product Line
Time
Companies grow by expanding existing value streams and by
launching new ones.
The width of a stream at any time represents revenue for a
product line or business unit.
In this case, the original product line becomes obsolete
5
In this case, the original product line becomes obsolete
within the time frame of the figure.
6. The Challengeg
Many corporate initiatives, mergers, and acquisitions end in failure
Most companies lack a systematic approach for guiding corporate Most companies lack a systematic approach for guiding corporate
evolution and branching that can answer key questions:
– How to distinguish profitable branching opportunities from “blind alleys”
– How to ensure that promising offspring will flourish
SBI has developed a new approach that we call “exploratory
roadmapping” to help companies develop new opportunities and
nurture new business units
– Framework – Organizational tools
– Ideation tools – Monitoring approachesIdeation tools Monitoring approaches
Exploratory roadmapping encourages
– Early identification of latent customer needs
6
– Forward exploration of emerging technology areas.
7. Exploratory Roadmapping: Four Elements that Help
Companies Develop Branching Opportunitiesp p g pp
Organize Branching:
Knowledge vector (e.g., GTO, GIO,
Scan)
Corporate venturing
Discover Latent Needs:
Opportunity discovery
Scenario-based search
Realize Opportunities:
Cross-functional teams Scenario based search
Entrepreneurial activity monitoring
Sociopolitical monitoring (Scan)
Consumer behavior analysis (VALS)
Cross functional teams
Scenario-based option plan
Opportunity strategic roadmap
Navigate Emerging Technologies:
Pacing technologies & variables
Areas monitor (Explorer)
7
Areas monitor (Explorer)
Implications
8. Future is Full of Different Scenarios
Electronics ChemicalsElectronics Chemicals
Biotechnology
Combinatorial Chemistry
IT in Chemical Industry
Technology Roadmaps
Polarized Society
Knowledge Management
Creating Innovation
Transforming Work
Exploiting Cyberspace
High-Growth Markets Defining Forces
8
Technology Roadmaps High-Growth Markets Defining Forces
Emerging Technologies
9. Scan Program is Ideal to Identify Defining Forces and
Signals of Changeg g
Customized
Services
Focused
Structured
6 Signals of Change
Early Alerts
to Changes
12 P tt
(Monthly)
Distillation:
Background Research, Refinement
to Changes
12 Patterns
(Monthly)
Scan™ Meeting:
Clustering, Filtering, Selection
100 Abstracts
(Monthly)
S f
Personal Observations Consulting Work Web 2.0 Media
Magazines Broadcasts ConferencesNewspapers
Real-Time
Data Points
9
External Environment:
Opportunities and Threats
Business Publications Scientific Journals Trade Publications
Chaotic
Unstructured
10. Observations from Explorer Programp g
Most New Technologies Require Long Lead Times
to Reach Market Takeoffto Reach Market Takeoff
Developments in the technology occur in a
stepwise manner, where breakthroughs are
followed by periods of frustrationfollowed by periods of frustration
Competing technologies may hold market share
or reach market first, even though they are not
the “best” solutionsthe best solutions
Synergistic technologies are required
for market takeoff, but are often the
weak linksweak links
10
11. Observations from Explorer Programp g
The Winning Technology Exploits Every Advantage
Technologies that become ubiquitous often have a
significantly larger market impact than from the sale of
the immediate product
The direction technology will take is often determined The direction technology will take is often determined
by a free, undervalued, or subsidized resource, due to
the profit potential of not bearing full cost, rather than
“most socially beneficial” technology
Technologies that change the nature of work create
expanded opportunities in old markets as well as
entirely new markets
Cross linking technologies can lead to creative new Cross-linking technologies can lead to creative new
applications
11
12. Observations from Explorer Programp g
A Good Roadmap Balances Vision, Communication, and Details
Most people seem to want either large amounts of small piecesp p g p
of data or small amounts of large pieces of information about
any given technology
Different people need the same information at different times
throughout the development cycle of a new technologythroughout the development cycle of a new technology
Hype about early breakthroughs in the technology can lead to
overinflated expectations about its current level of its
capabilities, early overinvestment, and market disappointmentp , y , pp
tyorHype
Source: Gartner Group
tyorHype
Source: Gartner Group
VisibilitVisibilit
12
Technology
Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Time
Technology
Trigger
Peak of Inflated
Expectations
Trough of
Disillusionment
Slope of
Enlightenment
Plateau of
Productivity
Time
13. SBI Conducts the Process via Well-defined Stepsp
Step 1: Identify Decision Focus and Themes
Step 2: Develop Knowledge Base
Step 3: Create Technology Scenarios
Step 4: Anticipate New ApplicationsStep 4: Anticipate New Applications
Step 5: Consider Impact of Driving Forces
Step 7: Develop Product Roadmaps
Step 6: Identify New Business Models (Opportunities)
13
Step 7: Develop Product Roadmaps
14. Step 1: Identify Decision Focus and Themesp y
Describe a specific decision focus:
Who needs exploratory roadmaps and why (or for what purpose)– Who needs exploratory roadmaps, and why (or for what purpose)
– What kinds of outcome needed or desired
– How to use the roadmaps (next steps)
Identify specific external themes of interest:
– Driving forces based on SBI’s Scan Program, or
– Specific themes (given by management or organization), or
– Emerging trends or main trends
Set specific goals: Set specific goals:
– Time horizon and scope of technologies and markets
– Roadmapping process and formats
14
pp g p
– Participants and time schedule
15. Step-2: Develop Knowledge Base (Based on Explorer
Technology Maps)Technology Maps)
Example of Technology Maps Technology evolution
Commercial development parameters
Implications of commerciali ation
Opportunities: Applications
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Self-Repair
Vibration
Control
Haptic
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Smart and
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Automotive
Engine, Drive-Train and
Suspension Components
Smart Mirrors Self-Repairing Coatings
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Structural Monitoring
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Light and
Heat Control
Fasteners
Industry Current Applications
Emerging Applications
Within 5 Years Within 10 Years
Commercial Development Parameters
Required Resources
• Partnering Capabilities
Demand Factors
• Military and Government
• Interfaces (Human-Machine, Machine to
Machine, Machine to Environment)
• Wireless Networks (Cellular, Bluetooth,
Wi-Fi)
• Miniature Power Sources
• Ubiquitous Embedded Processing
• Software Architecture
• Identification of Nodes
Synergistic Technologies
Implications of commercialization
Issues and uncertainties
Opportunities
Players
Energy-Saving
Systems
Orthopedics and
Prosthetics
Self-Powered
Monitoring Devices
S a t a d
Adaptive
Structures
Smart Structures
Aerospace and
Defense
Medical
Vibration and
Noise Control
NDTEVibration Control
Actuators
Minimally
Invasive
Surgery
Drug Delivery
Medical Analysis
Valves
and Seals
Earthquake Dampers Noise Control
Motors and Actuators
Industrial, Power
and Construction
Building Blocks of the
Technology
• Partnering Capabilities
• IT Expertise
• Spectrum Licenses
• Funding for Research
and Development
Regulatory Factors
• Privacy
• Security
• Liability
Competing Technologies
• Current Computing Environment
• Human Tools
General Constraints
• Value Capture
• Standards and Interoperability
• Storage and Scalability
• Cost
• Military and Government
• Industrial/Commercial
• Consumer
5
4
3
2
1
Implications
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Application for Nanotechnologies
• Growth in GMO-Production Technology
• Product Formulation Improved by
Biopolymers
Opportunities: Business Environment
Enabling Components Applications
Defense Systems
• BAE Systems
• Northrop Grumman
Key R&D and Funding
• Qinetiq
• DARPA
• Lockheed Martin
• General Dynamics
Magnetostrictives
• Newlands Scientific
• Etrema Products
Research and
Development
Smart Materials and
Components
Parts and Systems
Aircraft, Vehicles,
and Weapons
• Mobile Autonomous
Swarms
— Military (Smart Dust)
— Industrial-Plant
Maintenance
— Agriculture (Field
Analysis)
— Resource Extraction
• Smart Spaces
— Office Networks
— Inventory Management
— Telecommunications
— Transportation
(Commercial, Private)
— Home Networks
(Appliance
Collaboration,
Security)
• Personal Networks
— Health Care (Privacy,
Remote Monitoring)
— Entertainment (Virtual
Environments)
Systems
• Network Infrastructure
— PAN, LAN, WAN
• Software Architecture
— Discovery
— Intelligent Software Agents
— Context Awareness
— Operating Systems
— Scalability
• Standards
— Network and Communication
Protocols
— Application and Presentation
Protocols
Enabling Components
• Basic Node Components
— Processor
— Power Source
— Communication
Capability (GPS
Transmitters, RFID,
Sensors)
— Embedded Software
• Interface Nodes
— Input Devices (Mouse,
Stylus, Speech
Recognition)
— Biometrics
— Software Agents
• Work Nodes
— PDAs
— Home Appliances
— Robots
Applications
Issues and Uncertainties
Implications of Commercialization
A+B+C Bioploymer-enabled food processing enhances food formulation and provides a competitive edge in
the industry.
A+C Biopolymers enhance performance of consumer and industrial products and processes.
A+C Fine control of biopolymer production through cellular synthesis leads to customizable material
features, and GMOs become a key source for biopolymer production.
A+C+D Advanced medical treatments and devices emerge.
C Biopolymers gradually replace petroleum-based materials.
• Application for Nanotechnologies
• High-Throughput Screening
Improvements
• Progress of Combinatorial Methods
• Advances in Enzymatic and Cell-Free
Synthesis
Biopolymers
• Favorable Regulation of Functional Foods
and Nutraceuticals
• Consumer Preferences Move toward
Convenience Foods and Functional and
Nutraceutical Foods
A
New technologies will lead
to novel biopolymers.
B
Biopolymers enhance food
qualities and production.
• Northrop Grumman
• Raytheon
• United Technologies
• EADS NV
• DARPA
• U.S. Navy
• U.S. Army
• SRI International
• MIT
• NASA
• ORNL Aircraft
• Boeing
• Airbus
• Bombardier
• Dassault
• Saab AB
• Hindustan Aerospace
• General Dynamics
• Textron
• Thales
Aerospace Components
• Rolls-Royce
• Smiths Industries
• General Electric
• Siemens AG
• Textron
• Etrema Products
Shape-Memory Alloys
• Adaptamat
• Memory Metalle
• NDC
• Memry Corp.
• Dynalloy, Inc.
• Heraeus Materials
Smart Polymers
• Cornerstone
• Bayer MaterialScience
Piezoelectrics
• Many Suppliers
Players
— Robots
Smart Spaces
Privacy
Human-
Computer
Interfaces
Security
Intelligent
Agents
Software
Productivity
Standards and
Interoperability
Context
Awareness
Business
Models
Medium
High
Low
Impact
Wireless
Networks
• Factors and Events That Will Enable Technology Commercialization
Emerging Commercial Opportunities
Systems
• Network Infrastructure
— Cisco
— Siemens
• Software Architecture
— SRI International
— IBM Corporation
— HP Laboratories
— PARC
• Standards
— Bluetooth SIG
— IETF
— IEEE
Added
Value
Enabling Components
• Basic Node Components
— Intel
— Motorola
— Hitachi
• Interface Nodes
— Speech Works
— Philips Speech Processing
— Nuance
• Work Nodes
— Palm
— Sunbeam
— Matsushita Electric
• Mobile Autonomous Swarms
— Crossbow Technologies
— Nokia
— NTT DoCoMo
Applications
15
MediumLow High
Uncertainty
— Crossbow Technologies
— Xybernaut
• Smart Spaces
— Display Edge Technology
— Symbol Technologies
— NTT DoCoMo
• Personal Networks
— Sensatex
— Sony
— MIT Media Lab
16. Step-3: Create Technology Scenariosp gy
Project into the future what is technologically feasible
Identify synergistic technologies that will be necessary Santa Claus Machine Identify synergistic technologies that will be necessary
Consider alternative technology solutions
Create a visualization of progress by each generation
Santa Claus Machine
Personal Factory
Virtual Prototyping
Automated Fabrication
Remote
Manufacturing
Rapid Tooling
CAD P i h l
Rapid Manufacturing
Desktop Manufacturing
Rapid Prototyping
p g
Concept Modelers
CAD Peripherals
Rapid Prototyping
Technology Roadmap
16
Rapid Prototyping
17. Step-4: Anticipate New Applicationsp p pp
Match new applications with each new generation of
technology Santa Claus Machinetechnology
Create a measure of progress from present to future
applications
Santa Claus Machine
Personal Factory
Virtual Prototyping
Automated Fabrication
Remote
Manufacturing
Applications
Final Product
Rapid Tooling
CAD P i h l
Rapid Manufacturing
Desktop Manufacturing
Functional models and parts
Fit and form models
Patterns
Rapid Prototyping
p g
Concept Modelers
CAD Peripherals
Rapid Prototyping
Technology Roadmap
Visual aids
17
Rapid Prototyping
18. Step-5: Consider Impact of Driving Forcesp p g
Lags in synergistic technologies will slow
technical advances
Developments in competing technologies
Santa Claus Machine
Developments in competing technologies
will slow demand
Consumer, market, work trends will affect
rate of acceptance
Personal Factory
Automated Fabrication
Virtual Prototyping
Rapid Manufacturing
Remote
Manufacturing
Applications
F ti l d l d t
Final Product
Rapid Tooling
C t M d l
CAD Peripherals
Rapid Manufacturing
Desktop Manufacturing
Rapid Prototyping
T h l R dVisual aids
Functional models and parts
Fit and form models
Patterns
Defining Forces
• Polarized Society: Mass customization, access to technology
• Knowledge Management: Collaborative work, sharing, protecting IP
• Creating Innovation: Opening the design envelope, fuzzy concepts
• Transforming Work: RP as telecommuting tool remote manufacturing
Rapid Prototyping
Concept Modelers Technology RoadmapVisual aids
18
• Transforming Work: RP as telecommuting tool, remote manufacturing
• Exploiting Cyberspace: Virtual corporation, trust, privacy
• High-Growth Markets: Fast time-to-market, developing countries
• Emerging Technologies: Materials (polymers, ceramics, metals,
composites), product internal components (ICs, batteries, displays),
competing technologies (CNC, VR, groupware, simulation).
19. Step-6: Identify New Business Models (Opportunities)p y ( pp )
Santa Claus Machine
Future Business Models
• Mass customization
• Personal preference marketing
• Short run disposable products
Current Business Models
Personal Factory
Automated Fabrication
• Short-run, disposable products
• Materials, components distribution
• Craft, cottage industries
• CAD inventory management
• Internet commerce, micropayments
• Brand, mass production
• Low cost products
• Consistent quality
• Time-to-market
• Engineering and design
• Service bureaus
Virtual Prototyping
R id M f i
Remote
Manufacturing
Applications
Final Product
• Service bureaus
• Internet communications
Rapid Tooling
CAD Peripherals
Rapid Manufacturing
Desktop Manufacturing
Rapid Prototyping
Vi l id
Functional models and parts
Fit and form models
Patterns
Defining Forces
• Polarized Society: Mass customization, access to technology
• Knowledge Management: Collaborative work, sharing, protecting IP
• Creating Innovation: Opening the design envelope, fuzzy concepts
• Transforming Work: RP as telecommuting tool remote manufacturing
Rapid Prototyping
Concept Modelers Technology RoadmapVisual aids
19
• Transforming Work: RP as telecommuting tool, remote manufacturing
• Exploiting Cyberspace: Virtual corporation, trust, privacy
• High-Growth Markets: Fast time-to-market, developing countries
• Emerging Technologies: Materials (polymers, ceramics, metals,
composites), product internal components (ICs, batteries, displays),
competing technologies (CNC, VR, groupware, simulation).
20. Step-7: Develop Product Roadmapsp p p
Broad industry roadmaps
must be broken down into
Advanced Rapid Manufacturing Roadmap
Conventional 2000 2005 2010 2015St d d R d sub-groups and product
roadmaps
Conventional 2000 2005 2010 2015
•CNC Machining
•Rapid Tooling
•Rapid Urethane Casting
•Heterogeneous Materials
•Functionally Gradient Materials
•Embedding components
Standards Roadmap
Standards/
Related Software 2000 2005 2010 2015
•.STL
•IGES
•PDES
STEP
Data Software Roadmap
Data Source 2000 2005 2010 2015
•Embedding components
•Concept Modelling
Future
•Desktop Manufacturing
•Automated Fabrication
•Mass Customization
•STEP
•VRML
•Translation
•Viewing
•Slicing
•Support-Generation
•Sketch
•Blueprint
•Drawing
•Photograph
•CMM
•Digitizer
L
Design Software Roadmap
Sources 2000 2005 2010 2015
and Uses
•2-D Materials Roadmap
•Remote Manufacturing
•Personal Factory
•Nanotechnology
•Laser scan
•CT
•MRI
•3-D wireframe
•3-D solids
•FEA
•CFD
•VR
•Groupware
Materials Roadmap
Materials
Requirements 2000 2050 2010 2015
•Photopolymers
•Thermosets
•Thermoplastics
•Metals
Hardware Roadmap
Process
Working committees can link
roadmaps from different industries
Software can provide automatic links
•Metals
•Ceramics
•Composites
•Additives
Process
Requirements 2000 2005 2010 2015
•Steroelithography
•Layered powder
•Lamination
•Melt deposition
•Ink-jet deposition
Other
20
p
Devil is in the details
•Other
21. Diversity over Convergencey g
Infinite number of possible futures
Personal
Factory
Nanotechnology
Virtual
Prototyping
Automated
Desktop
Manufacturing
Automated
Fabrication
Polarized Society
Rapid Prototyping
Technology Roadmap
Polarized Society
Knowledge Management
Creating Innovation
Transforming Work
Exploiting Cyberspace
High-Growth Markets
E i T h l i
21
Emerging Technologies
22. Example of Exploratory Technology Roadmapp p y gy p
Fuel Cell Technology Roadmap Optimistic High Growth
Scenario: High-Growth Path
Fuel Cell Technology Roadmap
2000-2010
Collector Plate Cost
Heat System Optimization Range
Top Speed
Surge Power
p g
1.8 million Cars
Membrane Cost
Catalyst Cost Reliability
Fuel Choice
Volume Production Cost
System Integration Cost
Fuel Cost
F l A il bilit
Optimistic Base
700k Cars
$50/kW
Cold Start
Instant Start
Fuel Processor
Design, Cost
Fuel Availability
Gasoline Fuel Realistic Base
150k Cars
Early Bus Sales
$200/kW
Fleet Sales$500/kW
Methanol Fuel
Hydrogen Fuel
22
2005 20102000
Early Bus Sales
23. Example of Exploratory Technology Roadmapp p y gy p
Scenario: Low-Cost Path
Optimistic High GrowthOptimistic High GrowthFuel Cell Technology Roadmap
Flow Plate Cost
Catalyst Cost
Membrane Cost
Optimistic High Growth
12.1GW Annual
Capacity
Penetration into Developing Nations
Flow Plate Cost
Catalyst Cost
Membrane Cost
Optimistic High Growth
12.1GW Annual
Capacity
Penetration into Developing Nations
Fuel Cell Technology Roadmap
2000-2010
Integration Cost
AND “Dirty”
Optimistic Sales
6GW Annual
Capacity
Production Costs
New Electronic Devices
Penetration into Developing Nations
Integration Cost
AND “Dirty”
Optimistic Sales
6GW Annual
Capacity
Production Costs
New Electronic Devices
Penetration into Developing Nations
$445/kW
Realistic Sales
3.9GW Annual
Fuels Production Costs
Positive Deregulation Effects
$445/kW
Realistic Sales
3.9GW Annual
Fuels Production Costs
Positive Deregulation Effects
2000 2005 2010
$2,550/kW
$1,000/kW
Capacity
Natural Gas
Competitive in
Additional Markets
2000 2005 2010
$2,550/kW$2,550/kW
$1,000/kW
Capacity
Natural Gas
Competitive in
Additional Markets
23
Utility TrialsUtility Trials
24. Example of Exploratory Technology Roadmapp p y gy p
Pacing Technologies for Artificial Life
(Learning, adaptability, and reconfigurability will be the key pacing technologies)
Androids:
• Human Features
• Human Characteristics
Self Aware Objects:
Pacing Technologies:
• Increasing Numbers of Dimensions in Algorithms
• Incorporation of Learning in the Algorithm
• Increasing Adaptability of the Product or System
R fi bilit f th S ft d L t th H d Self-Aware Objects:
• Sense surrou ndings.
• Converse.
• Express emotion.
Open-Ended, Self-
Optimizing Hardware:
• Broad Knowledge
Base
• Learning
• Reconfigurability of the Software and, Later, the Hardware
Preference-Recognition Computing:
• Recognize individuals.
• Learn preferen ces.
• Alter performance.
Creative Design Optimization:
Self-Emerging
Circuitry:
• Self-Optimized
Design
• Domain Constrained
Capability
Knowledge-Based
Engineering:
• Learn from simulations, FEA, CFD.
• Optimize features and functions.
• Create new concepts.
• Include aesthetic
innovations.
Design Optimization:
• Knowledge Capture
• Feature Flaws
• CAD, CASE, CAME
Augmented Work:
• Natural Interfaces
Multidimensional
24
Time (Years)
Multidimensional
Genetic Algorithms
Genetic Algorithms:
• Optimize for one d imension.
• Make rando m calculations.
25. Example of Exploratory Technology Roadmapp p y gy p
Implication of Developments in Artificial Life
(Broad implications derive from clusters of technical milestones or areas to monitor)
Androids
Self-Aware
Objects
• Personal and legal re la tionships
will include A-life creatures.
• A-life Internet protocol protection
• Computers will become
indispensa ble companions.
Implications
Objects
Open -E nded, Self-
Optimizing Hardware
p p
technologies will be necessary.
• Knowledge workers will be
replaced by software.
• Creativity and innovation will
come less from humans,
more from A-life.
Preference-Recognition Computing
Creative Design
Optimization
Self-Emerging Circuitry
Augmented Work
Capability
• A-life art will
become
i
• A-life will be
studied by
scientists,
engineers,
designers.
Knowledge-Based Engineering
Design Optimization
Multidimensional
Genetic Algorithms
science.
25
Time (Years)
Genetic Algorithms
Broad implications of technology trends derive from clusters of technical milestones or areas to monitor.
Source: SRI Consulting