This document discusses how the world is experiencing exponential changes in areas like technology, with cost decreases, size decreases, and performance increases happening at an accelerated pace. It notes that while the future has arrived, it is not evenly distributed. It focuses on exponential changes in fields like education, energy, manufacturing, health care, and financial services. The document ends by quoting Peter Diamandis saying the best way to predict the future is to create it.
25. “The best way to predict
the future
is to create it”
Peter H. Diamandis
(Founder of the Xprize)
26. Exponential Age
@carolrealini
“Be bold. Don’t shy away from
change, even
disruptive change. ”
Carol Realini
Entrepreneur Country Citizen
Editor's Notes
From 50K a GB to $10 a GB
With Exponential Changes
Cost Decreases
Size Decreases
Performance Increases Time compresses
With Exponential Changes
Cost Decreases
Size Decreases
Performance Increases Time compresses
Few people fail to recognize the incredible progress of technology over the past few decades, in
particular computing, but comparatively few reflect on the broader impacts of this trend. Vernon
Vinge and Ray Kurzweil have predicted that technological advancement will be happening so fast we
will struggle to comprehend it
The inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has postulated that at some point in the future, a
technological 'singularity' will occur,. This is the point at which technological progress, if plotted on a graph, essentially
becomes a vertical line.
Ray
Kurzweil, 'The Singularity is Near'
Of course this might never happen, or not for thousands of years. There could be some fundamental
problem in mapping the network of neurons into a computer, or there could be some currently
unknown, unique element to our brains that cannot be replicated in a machine, or we may simply
end up destroying ourselves before computers can become powerful enough (more likely than you
think...)
But even if it is possible, the estimated time of the technological singularity varies. Ray Kurzweil
puts the year as 2045, others put it earlier and some later. Personally, I think Kurzweil has it about
right (although I am a little skeptical that the singularity will actually happen). Even if there are
major problems in creating the software of the human brain, the hardware should be more than
good enough by that time.
With Exponential Changes
Cost Decreases
Size Decreases
Performance Increases Time compresses
With Exponential Changes
Cost Decreases
Size Decreases
Performance Increases Time compresses
Few people fail to recognize the incredible progress of technology over the past few decades, in
particular computing, but comparatively few reflect on the broader impacts of this trend. Vernon
Vinge and Ray Kurzweil have predicted that technological advancement will be happening so fast we
will struggle to comprehend it
The inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil has postulated that at some point in the future, a
technological 'singularity' will occur,. This is the point at which technological progress, if plotted on a graph, essentially
becomes a vertical line.
Ray
Kurzweil, 'The Singularity is Near'
Of course this might never happen, or not for thousands of years. There could be some fundamental
problem in mapping the network of neurons into a computer, or there could be some currently
unknown, unique element to our brains that cannot be replicated in a machine, or we may simply
end up destroying ourselves before computers can become powerful enough (more likely than you
think...)
But even if it is possible, the estimated time of the technological singularity varies. Ray Kurzweil
puts the year as 2045, others put it earlier and some later. Personally, I think Kurzweil has it about
right (although I am a little skeptical that the singularity will actually happen). Even if there are
major problems in creating the software of the human brain, the hardware should be more than
good enough by that time.
3 Billion people will be reachable
Online commerce will overtake the physical world
“Middle-men” will add value or be eliminated
Peer-to-Peer for lending, funding, and ? will increase in important
Slow to adapt legacy infrastructure will be replaced
Virtual Currency will be increasingly important
Banking will evolve to be more wholesale and platform. Financial services will be provided by a many types of actors.