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2015
Models & Methods
Dave Parker
@DaveParkerSEA
www.dkparker.com
Dave@dkparker.com
“Big E Entrepreneurship”
Copyright DKParker, LLC
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2015
Agenda
¤  About Dave
¤  Marketing Methods
¤  Sales Models
¤  Pricing Methods
¤  Business Models
¤  Financial Models
¤  Q&A – Your models
Copyright DKParker, LLC
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2015
About Dave
¤  SVP Programs at UP Global (Startup Weekend + Startup
America)
¤  5X Entrepreneur
¤  EIR at Mitsui Venture Capital
¤  Board member for three mid-market, handful of startups
and advisory board for over 50+ startup companies
¤  Husband, Dad
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2015
Two Methods + Three Models
¤  Marketing Methods – are mechanics to be tested
¤  Pricing Methods – how to price your product
¤  Sales Models – how you SELL your product.
¤  Business Models – are the way to monetize, including key
metrics
¤  B2B
¤  B2C
¤  Financial Models – include revenue and expenses. Used
for both forecast and actual
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2015
Why?
¤  Doing a financial model requires Data & #’s for:
¤  Marketing Methods
¤  Pricing Methods
¤  Sales Model
¤  Business Model
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Example
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Marketing Methods
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How many of
you are
planning Virality
as a driver of
your model?
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2015
5 reasons you won’t go viral
1.  Viral & Network effect is a B2C marketing method
calculated as “K Factor” k = invites sent * conversion
2.  No inherent virality in your offering – nothing to share
with other people, e.g. Facebook or WhatsApp
3.  No collaboration virality – extending your offering
4.  Your target market is too small (TAM/SAM/LAM)
5.  Budget and Creative - No “me-too” approach will work
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What you can do
¤  Clear product positioning = word of mouth. Can your
message be repeated to their boss?
¤  Make your product more valuable over time <REALLY?>
¤  MVP vs. KAP “Kick Ass Product”
¤  Free trial is different from Freemium
¤  Corporate users will expense a service below a specific price
point
¤  What the conversion % to paid is the question you will have
to answer
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SAM
TAM
SOM
LAM
LAM – Launch
Addressable Market.
Who can buy your
product at MVP?
Market Sizing
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Marketing Channels and Metrics
What are your core assumptions for marketing?
¤  Track all Marketing by channel and $$ spend
¤  Paid, SEO, etc.
¤  Cost to create leads (traffic)
¤  Cost (effort) and % convert to prospects
¤  Cost (effort) and % convert to customers
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Customers (10)
SEO
Inbound
Outbound
Marketing
Channels
Leads
1,000
Prospects
100
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Pricing Methods
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You can sell
anything for
nothing
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2015
Pricing
¤  What do you need to charge to cover:
¤  Cost of build
¤  Cost of Sale
¤  Profit Expectation = Cash flow
¤  Value based pricing – don’t start too low
¤  One time or recurring?
¤  Bundled pricing (Services+)
¤  “Mystery of Product Pricing” dkparker.com
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Sales Models
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Someone has
to sell your
product – let’s
start with you
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2015
Sales Models
¤  Web Direct – Advertising and conversion based sales, sales
support?, requires customers to search and find
¤  Direct – internal sales people (Inside or Outside), # of deals/
Month, salary + commissions
¤  Distribution/Channel Sales – Indirect or external, <# of deals/
Month, no Salary, just commission <Mindshare. Fulfill
demand, don’t create demand
¤  White Label Sales/Licensing – infrastructure or license sales,
long sales cycle, few but targeted customers
¤  Retail – Product on shelves - N/A
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Known
Market
Unknown
Market
Low Price
Point
High Price
Point
Known Search
Words
Unknown
Search
words
Web Direct ✔ ✔ ✔
Direct ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔
Indirect ✔ ✔ ✔
Licensing ✔ ✔
Retail
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Sales Model Assumptions
The following apply regardless of models
¤  Cost of Customer Acquisition (CAC)
¤  Lifetime value of Customer (LTV)
¤  Typically 36 month calculation
¤  Time to close sale
¤  How does this change with product/market maturity?
¤  Churn/Retention
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Business Models
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Who is your customer?
¤  Business to Business (B2B)
¤  Business to Consumer (B2C)
¤  Business to Government (B2G)
¤  At launch you get one, at scale you can have many
¤  Business to business to consumer (B2B2C)
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B2B Business Models
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8 B2B Models
¤  B2B Commerce - Example Grainger
¤  Grainger is a wholesale supply company with a $15B market
cap. This ordering site shifted the expense of ordering from
their counter to the customer.
¤  Subscription - Example Salesforce.com - detailed post
¤  There are so many great examples now of B2B subscriptions; I
wanted to highlight one of the frontrunners in Salesforce.
One of the things they did that was masterful was recruited
sales people directly (cheap for 5 users or less) who would
then expense it back to their company.
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8 B2B Models
¤  Productize a Service - Example MOZ - detailed post
¤  Services business (Consulting) usually generates 35%+ Gross
Margin. Given that pull of profit $, very few companies make
the shift from services company to product company.
¤  Marketplace - Example Alibaba
¤  Nearly everyone has used eBay or similar. Alibaba's IPO and
global presence is what people know it for in 2015. But this
marketplace was founded in 1999.
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8 B2B Models
¤  Transaction Fees - Example Square
¤  Square launched with a replacement for credit cards like
PayPal and take a percentage of every transaction as their
payment. They've since expanded into Point of Sales (POS)
services.
¤  Lead Generation - Example Mint
¤  Consumers are the product to whom Lead Generation
companies are selling. They are a business that sells other
businesses (consumer) leads. They are paid for the lead, not
a transaction. Sometimes this is a great customer experience
like Mint, but with others, like Insurance, it's a bad customer
experience.
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8 B2B Models
¤  Combination - Example Uber
¤  Uber is a business that created a marketplace that
innovated around transaction fees (the driver doesn't control
the price like an eBay seller).
¤  Nonprofit - Example Startup Weekend
¤  I have to give a head nod here to UP Global, the parent
of Startup Weekend and Startup Next.  The company is a
501(c)(3) that doesn't make money through its events, but
rather through sponsorships. 
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Other Models – ONLY at Scale
¤  Big Data Sales – Data Analytics
¤  Multisided Marketplace – Etsy, Zarly
¤  Panels – ability to interview panel of customers or pay for
Access. Examples: PatientsLikeMe, Toluna
¤  B2B2C – please don’t hurt yourself…
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B2C Business Models
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12 B2C Models
¤  New Media - Example Twitter
¤  This model is actually the "no model required" model. If you
have a business that acquires users via virality or K-factor,
you don't really need to start with a business model. But for
the rest of us mortals, you'll need to choose one model from
the list that follows.
¤  Search - Example Google
¤  Google's model on search wasn't original (at least according
to Yahoo's lawsuit). The Pay Per Click (PPC) model was the
monetization option for search results.
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12 B2C Models
¤  Gaming - Example King
¤  When the app store launched, the model for games was the
$0.99-$4.99 per download. This model was quickly replaced
with in-app sales. Likely the world's best business model - sell
virtual stuff for real money!
¤  Advertising - Example Facebook
¤  Facebook delivers consumer eyeballs for advertisers. You'll
need at least 1M uniques a month to your site to monetize
this way however.
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12 B2C Models
¤  B2C Commerce - Example Amazon
¤  Amazon may not have been first, but it's clearly the biggest
e-commerce site on the web. They now sell some of their
own products, but its start was in books, a product that was
the same, regardless of where you purchased the product.
¤  Subscription - Example Netflix
¤  Netflix cracked the code on subscription for consumers. No
freemium, just subscribe.
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12 B2C Models
¤  Subscription - Freemium/Premium Example Spotify
¤  Spotify is a great example of free to paid version of
subscriptions. The reason freemium subscription isn't listed in
B2B is that, usually, Business customers won't purchase a de-
featured product.
¤  Marketplace - Example eBay
¤  Ah, eBay! You have sellers (they came first) and buyers; they
find each other and transact on your website. It's a brilliant
and really hard business - because you have to build both
sides of the market at the same time.
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12 B2C Models
¤  Transaction Fees - Example AirBnB
¤  I love AirBnB, they created underutilized inventory - vacant
rooms and your house - and made it easy to book and
transact over the web. For creating a market, they charge a
transaction fee.
¤  Lead Generation - Example Groupon
¤  This one is super close to Mint, listed as B2B above, but the
benefit is more tangible to the consumer vs. the business in
this circumstance.
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12 B2C Models
¤  Hardware - Example Jawbone
¤  Hardware is the classic example of retail pricing less cost of
goods sold. It's great to see sites like Kickstarter (transaction
fee) helping launch more hardware companies by providing
pre-paid purchases.
¤  Rental - Example Chegg
¤  Chegg was a great idea of taking something that was
ridiculously expensive in the physical (text books) and
making them available as a rental.
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Innovative Trends
¤  Airbnb – enabling payments for Peer-2-peer, sharing
economy
¤  Kickstarter – crowdfunding
¤  Groupon – lead gen with consumer benefit
¤  Xerox – leasing equipment – 1950’s
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Financial Models
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To the Spreadsheets!
¤  These details manifest in assumptions
¤  Time based
¤  Launch
¤  Ramp
¤  Scale
¤  Market & Brand Development
¤  Pricing
¤  Overtime
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Just say “no” to $100M!
¤  Avoid the Top 10 Fails Fundraising
¤  Bottom Up vs. Top Down Model
¤  Find a proxy for your business model “Like this for that”
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Q&A – Your Metrics & Models
Copyright DKParker, LLC
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2015
dave@dkparker.com
http://dkparker.com/
businessmodels/
@DaveParkerSEA

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DKParker Models & Methods Guide

  • 1. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Models & Methods Dave Parker @DaveParkerSEA www.dkparker.com Dave@dkparker.com “Big E Entrepreneurship”
  • 2. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Agenda ¤  About Dave ¤  Marketing Methods ¤  Sales Models ¤  Pricing Methods ¤  Business Models ¤  Financial Models ¤  Q&A – Your models
  • 3. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 About Dave ¤  SVP Programs at UP Global (Startup Weekend + Startup America) ¤  5X Entrepreneur ¤  EIR at Mitsui Venture Capital ¤  Board member for three mid-market, handful of startups and advisory board for over 50+ startup companies ¤  Husband, Dad
  • 4. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Two Methods + Three Models ¤  Marketing Methods – are mechanics to be tested ¤  Pricing Methods – how to price your product ¤  Sales Models – how you SELL your product. ¤  Business Models – are the way to monetize, including key metrics ¤  B2B ¤  B2C ¤  Financial Models – include revenue and expenses. Used for both forecast and actual
  • 5. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Why? ¤  Doing a financial model requires Data & #’s for: ¤  Marketing Methods ¤  Pricing Methods ¤  Sales Model ¤  Business Model
  • 6. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Example
  • 7. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Marketing Methods
  • 8. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 How many of you are planning Virality as a driver of your model?
  • 9. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 5 reasons you won’t go viral 1.  Viral & Network effect is a B2C marketing method calculated as “K Factor” k = invites sent * conversion 2.  No inherent virality in your offering – nothing to share with other people, e.g. Facebook or WhatsApp 3.  No collaboration virality – extending your offering 4.  Your target market is too small (TAM/SAM/LAM) 5.  Budget and Creative - No “me-too” approach will work
  • 10. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 What you can do ¤  Clear product positioning = word of mouth. Can your message be repeated to their boss? ¤  Make your product more valuable over time <REALLY?> ¤  MVP vs. KAP “Kick Ass Product” ¤  Free trial is different from Freemium ¤  Corporate users will expense a service below a specific price point ¤  What the conversion % to paid is the question you will have to answer
  • 11. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 SAM TAM SOM LAM LAM – Launch Addressable Market. Who can buy your product at MVP? Market Sizing
  • 12. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Marketing Channels and Metrics What are your core assumptions for marketing? ¤  Track all Marketing by channel and $$ spend ¤  Paid, SEO, etc. ¤  Cost to create leads (traffic) ¤  Cost (effort) and % convert to prospects ¤  Cost (effort) and % convert to customers
  • 13. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Customers (10) SEO Inbound Outbound Marketing Channels Leads 1,000 Prospects 100
  • 14. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Pricing Methods
  • 15. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 You can sell anything for nothing
  • 16. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Pricing ¤  What do you need to charge to cover: ¤  Cost of build ¤  Cost of Sale ¤  Profit Expectation = Cash flow ¤  Value based pricing – don’t start too low ¤  One time or recurring? ¤  Bundled pricing (Services+) ¤  “Mystery of Product Pricing” dkparker.com
  • 17. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Sales Models
  • 18. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Someone has to sell your product – let’s start with you
  • 19. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Sales Models ¤  Web Direct – Advertising and conversion based sales, sales support?, requires customers to search and find ¤  Direct – internal sales people (Inside or Outside), # of deals/ Month, salary + commissions ¤  Distribution/Channel Sales – Indirect or external, <# of deals/ Month, no Salary, just commission <Mindshare. Fulfill demand, don’t create demand ¤  White Label Sales/Licensing – infrastructure or license sales, long sales cycle, few but targeted customers ¤  Retail – Product on shelves - N/A
  • 20. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Known Market Unknown Market Low Price Point High Price Point Known Search Words Unknown Search words Web Direct ✔ ✔ ✔ Direct ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ ✔ Indirect ✔ ✔ ✔ Licensing ✔ ✔ Retail
  • 21. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Sales Model Assumptions The following apply regardless of models ¤  Cost of Customer Acquisition (CAC) ¤  Lifetime value of Customer (LTV) ¤  Typically 36 month calculation ¤  Time to close sale ¤  How does this change with product/market maturity? ¤  Churn/Retention
  • 22. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Business Models
  • 23. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Who is your customer? ¤  Business to Business (B2B) ¤  Business to Consumer (B2C) ¤  Business to Government (B2G) ¤  At launch you get one, at scale you can have many ¤  Business to business to consumer (B2B2C)
  • 24. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 B2B Business Models
  • 25. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 8 B2B Models ¤  B2B Commerce - Example Grainger ¤  Grainger is a wholesale supply company with a $15B market cap. This ordering site shifted the expense of ordering from their counter to the customer. ¤  Subscription - Example Salesforce.com - detailed post ¤  There are so many great examples now of B2B subscriptions; I wanted to highlight one of the frontrunners in Salesforce. One of the things they did that was masterful was recruited sales people directly (cheap for 5 users or less) who would then expense it back to their company.
  • 26. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 8 B2B Models ¤  Productize a Service - Example MOZ - detailed post ¤  Services business (Consulting) usually generates 35%+ Gross Margin. Given that pull of profit $, very few companies make the shift from services company to product company. ¤  Marketplace - Example Alibaba ¤  Nearly everyone has used eBay or similar. Alibaba's IPO and global presence is what people know it for in 2015. But this marketplace was founded in 1999.
  • 27. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 8 B2B Models ¤  Transaction Fees - Example Square ¤  Square launched with a replacement for credit cards like PayPal and take a percentage of every transaction as their payment. They've since expanded into Point of Sales (POS) services. ¤  Lead Generation - Example Mint ¤  Consumers are the product to whom Lead Generation companies are selling. They are a business that sells other businesses (consumer) leads. They are paid for the lead, not a transaction. Sometimes this is a great customer experience like Mint, but with others, like Insurance, it's a bad customer experience.
  • 28. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 8 B2B Models ¤  Combination - Example Uber ¤  Uber is a business that created a marketplace that innovated around transaction fees (the driver doesn't control the price like an eBay seller). ¤  Nonprofit - Example Startup Weekend ¤  I have to give a head nod here to UP Global, the parent of Startup Weekend and Startup Next.  The company is a 501(c)(3) that doesn't make money through its events, but rather through sponsorships. 
  • 29. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Other Models – ONLY at Scale ¤  Big Data Sales – Data Analytics ¤  Multisided Marketplace – Etsy, Zarly ¤  Panels – ability to interview panel of customers or pay for Access. Examples: PatientsLikeMe, Toluna ¤  B2B2C – please don’t hurt yourself…
  • 30. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 B2C Business Models
  • 31. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 12 B2C Models ¤  New Media - Example Twitter ¤  This model is actually the "no model required" model. If you have a business that acquires users via virality or K-factor, you don't really need to start with a business model. But for the rest of us mortals, you'll need to choose one model from the list that follows. ¤  Search - Example Google ¤  Google's model on search wasn't original (at least according to Yahoo's lawsuit). The Pay Per Click (PPC) model was the monetization option for search results.
  • 32. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 12 B2C Models ¤  Gaming - Example King ¤  When the app store launched, the model for games was the $0.99-$4.99 per download. This model was quickly replaced with in-app sales. Likely the world's best business model - sell virtual stuff for real money! ¤  Advertising - Example Facebook ¤  Facebook delivers consumer eyeballs for advertisers. You'll need at least 1M uniques a month to your site to monetize this way however.
  • 33. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 12 B2C Models ¤  B2C Commerce - Example Amazon ¤  Amazon may not have been first, but it's clearly the biggest e-commerce site on the web. They now sell some of their own products, but its start was in books, a product that was the same, regardless of where you purchased the product. ¤  Subscription - Example Netflix ¤  Netflix cracked the code on subscription for consumers. No freemium, just subscribe.
  • 34. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 12 B2C Models ¤  Subscription - Freemium/Premium Example Spotify ¤  Spotify is a great example of free to paid version of subscriptions. The reason freemium subscription isn't listed in B2B is that, usually, Business customers won't purchase a de- featured product. ¤  Marketplace - Example eBay ¤  Ah, eBay! You have sellers (they came first) and buyers; they find each other and transact on your website. It's a brilliant and really hard business - because you have to build both sides of the market at the same time.
  • 35. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 12 B2C Models ¤  Transaction Fees - Example AirBnB ¤  I love AirBnB, they created underutilized inventory - vacant rooms and your house - and made it easy to book and transact over the web. For creating a market, they charge a transaction fee. ¤  Lead Generation - Example Groupon ¤  This one is super close to Mint, listed as B2B above, but the benefit is more tangible to the consumer vs. the business in this circumstance.
  • 36. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 12 B2C Models ¤  Hardware - Example Jawbone ¤  Hardware is the classic example of retail pricing less cost of goods sold. It's great to see sites like Kickstarter (transaction fee) helping launch more hardware companies by providing pre-paid purchases. ¤  Rental - Example Chegg ¤  Chegg was a great idea of taking something that was ridiculously expensive in the physical (text books) and making them available as a rental.
  • 37. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Innovative Trends ¤  Airbnb – enabling payments for Peer-2-peer, sharing economy ¤  Kickstarter – crowdfunding ¤  Groupon – lead gen with consumer benefit ¤  Xerox – leasing equipment – 1950’s
  • 38. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Financial Models
  • 39. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 To the Spreadsheets! ¤  These details manifest in assumptions ¤  Time based ¤  Launch ¤  Ramp ¤  Scale ¤  Market & Brand Development ¤  Pricing ¤  Overtime
  • 40. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Just say “no” to $100M! ¤  Avoid the Top 10 Fails Fundraising ¤  Bottom Up vs. Top Down Model ¤  Find a proxy for your business model “Like this for that”
  • 41. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 Q&A – Your Metrics & Models
  • 42. Copyright DKParker, LLC Do Not Use Without Permission 2015 dave@dkparker.com http://dkparker.com/ businessmodels/ @DaveParkerSEA