Successfully reported this slideshow.
We use your LinkedIn profile and activity data to personalize ads and to show you more relevant ads. You can change your ad preferences anytime.

The exponential age: People, technology and progress

My opening keynote at the ABI Insurance in the digital world: cyber, data and technology – from hype to reality. Over the last two years digitisation has continued to accelerate, and is increasingly revolutionising all aspects of insurance and savings firms’ businesses. Technology is facilitating new operating
models and new customer relationships, huge volumes of data provide insights firms have never had access to before, and cyber risks create both operational and underwriting challenges to engage with.

This is a long form version with speaker notes on the slides.

  • Login to see the comments

The exponential age: People, technology and progress

  1. 1. THE EXPONENTIAL AGE: Progress, Technology and People @davidcaygill The iris Nursery iris Worldwide
  2. 2. PROGRESS Let’s talk about change, or as economists like to see it, progress. We’re all junkies for progress.The cult of new, the need for a fresh perspective, to keep moving forward. The trick is to look around you, to identify where the leaps are, the glimpses of the future.
  3. 3. The future is already here, it’s just not very evenly distributed. William Gibson
  4. 4. Something as simple as glancing at your phone and seeing the travel time to your next appointment conveniently pop up, accounting for congestion and disruption, subtly helping you get through the day more quickly and more efficiently. 15 years ago this would have involved that archaic map format the A to Z and some decent local knowledge of traffic patterns and public transport.
  5. 5. Something as simple as glancing at your phone and seeing the travel time to your next appointment conveniently pop up, accounting for congestion and disruption, subtly helping you get through the day more quickly and more efficiently. 15 years ago this would have involved that archaic map format the A to Z and some decent local knowledge of traffic patterns and public transport.
  6. 6. PAY WITH FACE Vs CC SWIPER Or being able to walk into a KFC in Hangzhou, China and pay with your face. Jack Ma’s Alipay business launched face pay last month, it’s part of their strategy to merge offline and online retail. 20 years ago we’d have been using the old Zip-Zap machines (yes that’s what they were known as)
  7. 7. PAY WITH FACE Vs CC SWIPER Or being able to walk into a KFC in Hangzhou, China and pay with your face. Jack Ma’s Alipay business launched face pay last month, it’s part of their strategy to merge offline and online retail. 20 years ago we’d have been using the old Zip-Zap machines (yes that’s what they were known as)
  8. 8. Or a moment or when your car kindly lets you know it is ready to take over. 12 cameras and sensors enabling Tesla’s autopilot to navigate the journey. Elon Musks company’s ability to start treating his cars like software and rolling out over the air updates is incredible.
  9. 9. However, of course it’s not without it’s teething issues…. yes this is a bad piece of road design, it still is an important reminder that it’s still the driver who’s in charge
  10. 10. We only need to go back 30 years, we were being amazed that F1 and aero technology was trickling down to consumer cars in the form of ABS and traction control. Key safety enhancements, starting to override driver decisions with technology using sensors from the car. It’s the beginning of assistive technology. B we’ve come a long way in 30 years.
  11. 11. WHY DOES IT FEEL LIKE THINGS ARE SPEEDING UP? It may start to feel as though the pace of technology development and breakthroughs are happening much faster than we are used to. How long did it take for all this tech to be reduced to just a couple of devices?
  12. 12. WE THINK ABOUT TECHNOLOGY SEPARATELY SOCIAL MEDIA SMARTPHONES CLOUD COMPUTING FASTER PROCESSORS INTERNET OF THINGSROBOTICS VR/AR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE VOICE INTERFACES WEARABLES The underlying reason for this is how we look at the world. We’re aware that processors are getting faster, that robotics are advancing and wearables are getting smarter, but we can’t help but think about these things separately.
  13. 13. SOCIAL MEDIA SMARTPHONES CLOUD COMPUTING FASTER PROCESSORS INTERNET OF THINGSROBOTICS VR/AR ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE VOICE INTERFACES WEARABLES TECHNOLOGY ADVANCES CONVERGE We can’t fathom what’s going to happen when they all converge and connect. But they’re all converging and connecting. So we need to. Advances across different areas of technology are starting to multiply with each other, making the overall rate of change even faster. According to Google’s futurologist Ray Kurzweil, It’s called the Law of Accelerated returns, and it means that the rate of change is not linear, but exponential
  14. 14. THE EXPONENTIAL AGE Looking at computing, in just over 100 years we get to insect level performance. But in just 8 years computers will have the same power as one human brand, and not long till all humans. We’re living in the exponential age
  15. 15. Struggling to get your head round this? That’s because our human instincts and intuition looks for patterns in the past. It’s almost impossible for us to internalise this rate of change. And that’s why progress is so remarkable when we see it. Just when you think you’ve got your head round the rate of change, it goes and accelerates. So to try and help you.. According the law of accelerated returns, the 21st century will feature 1,000 times the technological progress of the twentieth century
  16. 16. 40 YEARS PROGRESS AT TODAY’S RATE
  17. 17. WILL HAPPEN IN 13 YEARS
  18. 18. RAY KURZWEIL: ELASTIC NEO CORTEX Google Futurist Ray Kursweil Imagines a world where we’re augmented by the cloud. Our brains offload some processing to the internet. Kurzweil predicts that humans will become hybrids in the 2030s.That means our brains will be able to connect directly to the cloud, computers will augment our existing intelligence. "Our thinking then will be a hybrid of biological and non-biological thinking,” The bigger and more complex the cloud, the more advanced our thinking. By the time we get to the late 2030s or the early 2040s, Kurzweil believes our thinking will be predominately non-biological. He’s also famously predicted the Singularity, let’s ask our friendly conversational UI what is the singularity?
  19. 19. TECHNOLOGY
  20. 20. In my view the single most powerful force driving this kind of progress today is AI. When we look at any particular field experiencing a leap in progress and start to analyse what the enabling technologies were that caused that change, we usually find some AI or Machine Learning in the mix. Google’s AI - Assistant is rolling out across all android devices, google home and of course the smart watches, the sheer scale of google and it’s data mass mean that it’s quickly going to become one of the most successful platforms. Developers can now create Google Actions, which can include purchase and payment, similar to Amazon’s Alexa skills.
  21. 21. Of course the battle is on between the behemoths to dominate the home tech space, with the smart virtual assistants being the number one weapon of mass influence. Why? The closer they can get into your life, the more influence and control they can have. Building a successful tech product is about building a habitually engaged audience. Your company becomes the go-to for everything. Of course it’s not only consumer focussed AI, back office and B2B services using AI to provide efficiencies and identify new opportunities are where some of the biggest gains are seen
  22. 22. Tomorrows insurance companies will be data companies. The big story here is about data. I’m sure I can’t be the first to say this, perhaps not even the first to say this today. Tomorrows insurance companies will be data companies. However when I look at industries that are changing fastest due to data, it’s got to be insurance.
  23. 23. The ones to watch out for are the GAFA, Google, Apple Facebook and Amazon They will soon be able to offer insurance cheaper and more effectively than traditional insurance houses. Why? Because they have all the data. Knowing more about you than your family they can price your risk more efficiently than any other entity.Those with the data are the ones with the power. Do I think they are likely to start offering insurance? no. But the implication is clear, unless insurance companies have great data sources on their customers and use that to optimise their business, it’s going to be easier for new market entrants to purchase data feeds from large providers and create disruptive new models.
  24. 24. PEOPLE ARE GETTING SAVVY & SCARED ABOUT THIER DATA However consumers are of course becoming more wary of the data captured by companies, they are starting to know more about us than even our most intimate of friends or family. As the Guardian recently reported, a user received over 800 pages from Tinder when she asked for her data to be exported and sent to her. It’s an eye opening read. 870 matches, 1700 messages, the night of 16 compulsive concurrent conversations then Ghosting them al the next morning. We’re all coaxed into sharing the deepest secrets then it is commercialised. The data value exchange will become increasingly hard to make work for customers, they’ll be looking for very tangible benefits in return for handing over personal information.
  25. 25. IOT: Risk mitigation to risk avoidance One hypothesis is that as more data is collected and acted upon the role insurers will play will evolve into one that is closely aligned with the consumer’s own needs. So rather than being a financial safety net, the job is actually helping the consumer avoid the eventuality they are insuring against. By helping the consumer live a more healthy life or by adding sensors to their home risk is reduced and therefore premiums can come down. Great news for the consumer, and something that should start to trigger conversations about business models in this room.
  26. 26. IBM’S INTERNET OF CARING THINGS Sticking on IOT - IBM are working on The Internet of Caring Things and are starting to look at how can the spaces we live in can be more responsive to our needs. Ambient assistive living. Passive sensors hooked up to IBM Watson capable of inferring meaning from the signals received. How often a fridge was opened, when the light was turned on etc can help a carer know if someone needs assistance.
  27. 27. AUTOMATION WILL TAKE SOME JOBS As we talk about robots and AI we probably have to talk about the aspect of job replacement. This slightly hypnotic video is a Chinese postal warehouse where robots sort over 200,000 parcels per day. The RSA have predicted robots 'could take 4m UK private sector jobs within 10 years’. Most of the replacements to be highest in the transportation and finance and accounting sectors.
  28. 28. AUTOMATION WILL TAKE SOME JOBS
  29. 29. But before we panic too much we should bear in mind that we’ve survived it before.The last couple of centuries have seen industrialisation, automation and computerisation take the load off large swathes of our planet. In 1790, 90% of the population of the US were employed in the agricultural sector, by 2011, it was 1.7%. ‘What humans do’ has changed enormously and is more focused than ever on maximising the potential of our creative and emotional abilities– things that can’t be mechanised. My advice on that front is to think about what ai & robots are great at and what humans are great at. There will be many jobs that frankly would be much better if robots did them, poorly paid, dangerous, repetitive jobs in hostile or unpleasant environments.
  30. 30. PEOPLE
  31. 31. Title Text 31
  32. 32. scroll the length of big ben 32 WE SCROLL THE LENGTH OF BIG BEN EVERY DAY
  33. 33. MOBILE IS MAKING US FASTER Time.The scarcest resource, the only one that we cannot replenish. What is interesting is that our perceptions of time change depending on the medium we’re consuming content. As part of their IQ research team Facebook conducted some research into behaviours on mobile vs desktop. They showed participants two different videos - one on mobile and one on desktop and asked them to estimate how long they were. People who viewed the video on smartphone estimated them to be 30% shorter than the desktop viewers.The videos were the same length.
  34. 34. Confidential © 2016 7.8 days 6.7 days
  35. 35. 35@davidcaygill
  36. 36. @davidcaygill All this reducing attention span drives us to want things more quickly, we life in the now. There is no delayed gratification, there is no wait and see. Amazon Prime can deliver me cold beer in less than an hour. Perhaps that’s also why as of this year more people are googling ‘nearest’ over ‘cheapest’ urgency and convenience have become one of the biggest drivers.
  37. 37. EXPONENTIAL THINKING SO what now? How do we make sense of all this change, how do we start to apply it in our own jobs and our own worlds? The answer I think lies back in our roots. You probably all know the origins of Lloyds of London back in the 16th century coffee shops in London. SO what now? How do we make sense of all this change, how do we start to apply it in our own jobs and our own worlds? The answer I think lies back in our roots. You probably all know the origins of Lloyds of London back in the 16th century coffee shops in London.
  38. 38. coffee houses 38 Various investors underwrote percentages of a ships cargo to insure it against the risks posed by the ravages of the seas. Well those coffee shops were important in the development of our modern society, academia, especially physics, our business landscape, you name it it probably had it’s genesis in those coffeeshops. Why? Because they were about the meeting of the great minds of the time. A place and context where views were challenged, wagers made, alliances born. The same is true of an event like this, a moment where many minds will come together to create a new future. Now let’s debate what it might be.
  39. 39. THANK YOU @davidcaygill The iris Nursery iris Worldwide

×