The document summarizes wheat production prospects in several countries. Kazakhstan wheat production is forecast to decrease to 13.5 million tons due to dry weather reducing yields. Australia wheat production is forecast to increase to 26 million tons. EU wheat production is forecast to increase to 147.9 million tons, lifted by higher production in Germany despite drought in Spain. Canada wheat production is forecast to decrease to 28 million tons due to lower planted area.
Dr Dev Kambhampati | USDA- World Agricultural Production (July 2014)
1. United States
Department of
Agriculture
Foreign
Agricultural
Service
Circular Series
WAP 7-14
July 2014
Kazakhstan Wheat: Dry Weather Reduces Yield Prospects
USDA forecasts 2014/15 Kazakhstan wheat production at 13.5 million tons, down 1.0 million or
6.9 percent from last month and down 0.4 million or 3.2 percent from last year. Harvested area
is estimated at 12.7 million hectares against 13.0 million last year. The decrease in estimated
output is based on a reduction in the forecast yield due to three months of persistent dryness in
north-central Kazakhstan, the country’s main wheat-production zone. The reported cumulative
precipitation from the beginning of April through the end of June is less than half of normal, and
satellite-derived evapotranspiration data indicate severe crop stress during the month of June as
spring grains were advancing through the vegetative growth stage. Yield is forecast at 1.06 tons
per hectares, down 6.9 percent from last month, down 1.2 percent from last year, and 2.6 percent
below the 5-year average. Kazakhstan wheat enters the critical flowering stage in mid- to late
July, and July weather typically plays a key role in determining final yield. (For more
information, please contact Mark Lindeman at 202-690-0143).
World Agricultural
Production
Approved by the World Agricultural Outlook Board
2. Australia Wheat: Production Forecast Revised Up
USDA forecasts the 2014/15 Australia wheat production at 26 million tons, up 0.5 million or 2.0
percent from last month, but down 1.0 million or 3.8 percent from last year. The area forecast is
13.8 million hectares, up 0.2 million or 1.5 percent from last month and up 0.3 million or 2.1
percent from last year. A favorable start to the season in most areas allowed sowing operations to
be completed by June. The planted area increase is largely due to expectations of better gross
margins as compared to other winter crops. Growing conditions for Australia’s 2014/15 wheat
crop are favorable across most regions of the cropping zone. Continued normal rainfall during
the growing season will be critical to achieving the forecast yield potential, particularly in those
areas where soil moisture levels are presently low such as in Queensland. (For more information,
please contact Jim Crutchfield at 202-690-0135).
EU Wheat: German Production Lifts EU Crop, Despite Drought in Spain
USDA estimates the 2014/15 European Union (EU) wheat crop at 147.9 million tons, up 1.6
million or 1.1 percent from last month and up 4.6 million or 3.2 percent from last year.
Harvested area is estimated at 26.6 million hectares, up 0.1 million from last month and 0.8
million hectares or 3.2 percent above last year’s harvested area. Yield is estimated at 5.57 tons
per hectare (MT/Ha), above last month’s 5.52 MT/Ha, but below last year’s 5.57 MT/Ha. The 5-
year average yield is 5.34 MT/Ha.
Mostly favorable weather during June in central Europe further improved prospects for a near-
record EU wheat harvest. Prior concerns about winter and spring dryness in central Europe were
alleviated by well-timed rain. Essential rainfall occurred at critical early development periods,
followed by heavier rains during grain fill in May and June. June crop travel in Germany and
Hungary by FAS staff confirmed the good condition of the wheat crop. As a result of beneficial
weather, estimated production in the EU’s second largest producer, Germany, was raised 1.3
million tons. Additionally, relatively large changes were made to Czech Republic, Hungary, and
Sweden – each up 0.3 million tons from the previous month.
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July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
3. The now harvested wheat crop in Spain experienced a sudden and early end to its rainy season,
prior to the end of its growing season. Unfavorably dry conditions in Spain have led to a 0.6-
million-ton reduction in estimated production. Meanwhile in the Balkan Peninsula, heavy rains
and flooding reduced crop potential in the export countries of Romania and Bulgaria, likely
damaging wheat and lowering quality to feed standards. (For more information, please contact
Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138).
Canada Wheat: 2014/15 Area Harvested Down from 2013/14
USDA estimates 2014/15 Canada wheat production at 28.0 million tons, down 25 percent from
last year record level and down 1.8 percent from last month. Area is estimated at 9.6 million
hectares, down 8.0 percent from last year and down 2.0 percent from the previous month. Yield
is forecast at 2.92 tons per hectare, down 19 percent from last year’s record but essentially
unchanged from the previous month.
Statistics Canada’s June Principal Field Crop Area report estimated wheat seeded area at 24.5
million acres or 9.9 million hectares, down nearly 2 percent from its previous report and down
7.4 percent from last year. Farmers seeded less wheat in 2014 from the previous year due to
winter transportation and delivery problems, which resulted in significantly high carry-over
stocks. Area seeded is forecast to return close to the 5-year average. All three major producers
(Saskatchewan, Alberta, and Manitoba) reported roughly a 7.5 percent decrease in area seeded.
Farmers were unable to fulfill their March planting intentions because of wet, cool weather that
hampered fieldwork in Eastern Saskatchewan and Western Manitoba. Alberta, however, was
able to fulfill its planting intentions because of nearly ideal planting conditions. Cool, wet
weather is still impeding crop development across the Western Prairies. Despite these conditions,
Saskatchewan and Alberta reported in early July that roughly 80 percent of the wheat is in good
to excellent condition. (For more information, please contact Arnella Trent 202-720-0881).
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July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
4. Vietnam Rice: 2014/15 Production Forecast Higher
USDA forecasts total milled rice production in
Vietnam in 2014/15 at 28.2 million tons, up 0.4
million or 1.4 percent from last month and up 0.7
percent from last year. Harvested area is forecast
at 7.8 million hectares, unchanged from both last
month and last year. Yield is estimated at a
record 5.80 tons per hectare, up nearly 1 percent
from last year. Statistics from Vietnam’s Ministry
of Agriculture and Rural Development (MARD)
indicate that 2013/14 rice production was higher
than previously expected, resulting in an upward
revision of approximately 200,000 tons (milled
basis). These historical seasonal estimates
indicated that farmers achieved higher than
expected yields for the spring crop, which is the largest of the three annual rice crops. The
spring crop typically accounts for approximately 46 percent of total production, followed by the
autumn crop at 35 percent and the winter crop at 19 percent. The new seasonal estimates altered
the outlook for potential yields in 2014/15, as Vietnam has been able to achieve steady trend
yield growth on an annual basis for the past 20 years. (For more information, please contact
Michael Shean at 202-720-7366).
Australia Cotton: Low Reservoir Levels Likely to Reduce Irrigated Area
USDA forecasts the 2014/15 Australia cotton crop at 2.7 million bales, down 0.4 million or 13
percent from last month. Harvested area is forecast at 0.30 million hectares, down 0.02 million
or 6.3 percent from last month. Yield is forecast at 1,960 kilograms per hectare, marginally
below the 5-year average of 1,990 kilograms.
Lower planted area is anticipated as a result of reduced irrigation availability at sowing, which
will commence in September. Irrigated cotton area accounts for about 90 percent of Australia’s
total cotton output. Dryland cotton planting tends to be more opportunistic and depends on the
seasonal weather forecast, and conditions and prices at sowing. Irrigated cotton yields are
substantially higher than dryland yields and the difference widens in low rainfall years. It is
expected that reservoir levels will remain below 2013 levels thereby severely constraining the
irrigated cotton area for the 2014 crop. Current reservoir levels are 40 to 70 percent below last
year’s levels. Assuming normal rainfall and recharge from now until sowing, the available
irrigation supply will be lower than in 2013. (For more information, please contact James
Crutchfield at 202-690-0135).
India Cotton: Poor Monsoon Rainfall Distribution Lowers Prospects for 2014/15
USDA has revised the forecast for the 2014/15 India cotton production to 28 million bales (480-
pound bales), down 0.5 million bales from last month. The revision is primarily based on reports
of significant delays in planting due to the late start and generally poor distribution of the 2014
monsoon rainfall across the country. Cotton sown area is forecast at 11.8 million hectares. Yield
4
July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
5. is forecast at 517 kilograms per hectare (kg/Ha), down 1.7 percent from last month. In the past
five years India’s cotton area and yields have averaged 11.5 million hectares and 530 kg/Ha.
According to the Government
of India’s Meteorological
Department, the advance of the
2014 southwest monsoon into
the major cotton growing areas
of north central and
northwestern India is now
delayed by more than two
weeks. Overall, at the end of
June, the monsoon rainfall was
93 percent of normal across
India. Regional estimates
indicate that the monsoon is at
85 percent of normal in
northwest India, 94 percent in
central India, 93 percent in
Southern Peninsula, and 99
percent in north east India.
Generally, the Indian monsoon
is classified as normal at 95 to
105 percent of the long-term-
average (LTA). Below normal is defined at 90-95 percent of LTA and drought as less than 90
percent of LTA.
The late start, somewhat erratic beginning and poor distribution of the monsoon rainfall is
generally resulting in delayed planting of almost all kharif (monsoon) season crops including
cotton. However, it is still too early to make objective and reliable seasonal planting predictions
because the window of opportunity for cotton planting extends through July. The mid-July
planting progress data and observations will be critical in estimating the 2014 cotton area
planted. (For more information, please contact Dath Mita, PhD, at 202-720-7339).
Spain Barley: Drought-Related Impacts Reduce Production
USDA estimates barley production in Spain at 7.0 million tons, down 1.2 million or 15 percent
from last month, and down 3.1 million or 30 percent from last year. Area is estimated at 2.8
million hectares, practically unchanged from both last month and last year. Yield is estimated at
2.54 tons per hectare (MT/Ha) compared to 2.96 MT/Ha last month and the 2.83 MT/Ha 5-year
average.
Spain is typically the EU’s third largest barley producer after France and Germany. Its crop is
rainfed and therefore dependent on seasonal rainfall. Significant dryness occurred during April
and May, however, with crops receiving only half their normal spring rainfall totals. High
temperatures further diminished soil moisture, stressing plants during critical development
months, resulting in yield loss.
5
July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
6. Improved conditions in many central and east European countries such as Germany, Romania,
Hungary and Lithuania offset Spain’s negative influence on barley production in the European
Union (EU). Overall estimated production for 2014/15 EU barley remains unchanged from last
month at 55.9 million tons, which is 3.7 million tons or 6.3 percent below last year’s harvest.
(For more information, please contact Bryan Purcell at 202-690-0138.)
China Corn: Record Crop Forecast in 2014/15
USDA forecasts China’s 2014/15 corn
crop at a record 222.0 million tons, up 2
million or 0.9 percent from last month and
up 3.5 million or 1.6 percent from last
year’s revised output of 218.5 million
tons. Area is estimated at 36.8 million
hectares, up 0.8 percent from last month
and 1.3 percent from last year’s record
area of 36.3 million. Revisions to the
2013/14 area and production estimates
this month were based on data published
in China’s 2014 Statistical Abstract.
Corn area has increased by more than 10 million hectares in the past decade, while planted area
for rice and wheat has risen slightly. Most of the growth in corn area took place in Northeast
China, where new farmland was developed and soybean and spring wheat acreage was converted
to more-profitable corn. Corn area has also increased on the North China Plain, often at the
expense of cotton area.
Yield, forecast at 6.03 tons per hectare, is unchanged from last month and essentially equal to
last year’s record yield. The spring-sown crop in Northeast China is now in the reproductive
stage, while the summer-sown crop on the North China Plain will enter the reproductive stage in
August. Weather and soil moisture conditions are currently close to normal, and no major
flooding, droughts or pest/disease problems have occurred so far this season. (For more
information, contact Paulette Sandene at 202-690-0133).
6
July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
7. World Agricultural Production
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service / Office of Global Analysis
International Production Assessment Division (IPAD / PECAD)
Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building
Washington, DC 20250-1051
http://www.pecad.fas.usda.gov/
Telephone: (202) 720-1157 Fax: (202) 720-1158
This report uses information from the Foreign Agricultural Service’s (FAS) global network of
agricultural attachés and counselors, official statistics of foreign governments and other foreign
source materials, and the analysis of economic data and satellite imagery. Estimates of foreign
area, yield, and production are from the International Production Assessment Division, FAS, and
are reviewed by USDA’s Inter-Agency Commodity Estimates Committee. Estimates of U.S.
area, yield, and production are from USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service. Numbers
within the report may not add to totals because of rounding. This report reflects official USDA
estimates released in the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE-531), July
11, 2014.
Printed copies are available from the National Technical Information Service. Download
an order form at http://www.ntis.gov/products/specialty/usda/fas_a-g.asp, or call NTIS at
1-800-363-2068.
The FAS International Production Assessment Division prepared this report. The next issue of
World Agricultural Production will be released after 12:00 p.m. Eastern Time, August 12, 2014.
Conversion Table
Metric tons to bushels
Wheat, soybeans = MT * 36.7437
Corn, sorghum, rye = MT * 39.36825
Barley = MT * 45.929625
Oats = MT * 68.894438
Metric tons to 480-lb bales
Cotton = MT * 4.592917
Metric tons to hundredweight
Rice = MT * 22.04622
Area & weight
1 hectare = 2.471044 acres
1 kilogram = 2.204622 pounds
7
July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
8. For further information, contact:
U.S. Department of Agriculture
Foreign Agricultural Service
Office of Global Analysis
International Production Assessment Division
Ag Box 1051, Room 4630, South Building
Washington, DC 20250-1051
Telephone: (202) 720-1157 Fax: (202) 720-1158
GENERAL INFORMATION
Director Derrick Williams III 202-690-0131 derrick.williams@fas.usda.gov
Deputy Director Paul Provance 202-720-2974 paul.provance@fas.usda.gov
USDA Remote Sensing Advisor Glenn Bethel 202-720-1280 glenn.bethel@fas.usda.gov
Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 curt.reynolds@fas.usda.gov
Sr. Analyst/Satellite Imagery Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 mita.dath@fas.usda.gov
Archives Manager/Technical Lead
Sr. Analyst/ Global Special Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 james.crutchfield@fas.usda.gov
Projects Manager/Technical Lead
Sr. Analyst/Technical Lead Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 robert.tetrault@fas.usda.gov
GIS Analyst/WAP Coordinator Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 justin.jenkins@fas.usda.gov
Program Analyst Mary Jackson 202-720-0886 mary.jackson@fas.usda.gov
Management Analyst Rishan Chaudhry 202-720-1157 rishan.chaudhry@fas.usda.gov
Administrative Assistant/COTR Terri Lagarde 202-720-1157 terri.lagarde@fas.usda.gov
COUNTRY- AND REGION-SPECIFIC INFORMATION
South América, Argentina and Colombia Denise McWilliams, PhD 202-720-0107 denise.mcwilliams@fas.usda.gov
Western and Central Europe, Bryan Purcell 202-690-0138 bryan.purcell@fas.usda.gov
and North Africa
Russia, Kazakhstan, Ukraine, Mark Lindeman 202-690-0143 mark.lindeman@fas.usda.gov
and other FSU-12 countries
Canada, Caribbean, Sri Lanka, Arnella Trent 202-720-0881 arnella.trent@fas.usda.gov
and Bangladesh
East Asia, China, and Japan Paulette Sandene 202-690-0133 paulette.sandene@fas.usda.gov
India, Pakistan, and Nepal Dath Mita, PhD 202-720-7339 mita.dath@fas.usda.gov
Sub-Saharan Africa, Mexico, Curt Reynolds, PhD 202-690-0134 curt.reynoldsc@fas.usda.gov
Nigeria and South Africa
S.E. Asia, Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, Michael Shean 202-720-7366 michael.shean@fas.usda.gov
Cambodia, and Vietnam
Brazil, Venezuela, Central America, Robert Tetrault 202-720-1071 robert.tetrault@fas.usda.gov
Australia, New Zealand, Jim Crutchfield 202-690-0135 james.crutchfield@fas.usda.gov
Papua New Guinea, and South Pacific Islands
Middle East, Afghanistan, Iraq, Bill Baker, PhD 202-260-8109 bill.baker@fas.usda.gov
Iran, Syria
Western United States Justin Jenkins 202-720-0419 justin.jenkins@fas.usda.gov
Eastern United States Paul Provance 202-720-2974 paul.provance@fas.usda.gov
Crop Analyst Vacant
July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
9. The Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) updates its production, supply and distribution (PSD) database for
cotton, oilseeds, and grains at 12:00 p.m. on the day the World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates
(WASDE) report is released. This circular is released by 12:15 p.m.
FAS Reports and Databases:
Current World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdDataPublications.aspx
Archives World Market and Trade and World Agricultural Production Reports:
http://usda.mannlib.cornell.edu/MannUsda/viewTaxonomy.do?taxonomyID=7
Production, Supply and Distribution Database (PSD Online):
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/psdonline/psdHome.aspx
Global Agricultural Trade System (U.S. Exports and Imports):
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/gats/default.aspx
Export Sales Report:
http://apps.fas.usda.gov/esrquery/
Global Agricultural Information Network (Agricultural Attaché Reports):
http://gain.fas.usda.gov/Pages/Default.aspx
Other USDA Reports:
World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE):
http://www.usda.gov/oce/commodity/wasde/
Economic Research Service:
http://www.ers.usda.gov/topics/crops
National Agricultural Statistics Service:
http://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/
July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
10. Million Metric Tons
Table 01 World Crop Production Summary
World
-
Total
Foreign
North
America
North
America
North
America
Europea
n Union -
Former
Soviet
Former
Soviet
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
Asia
(WAP)
South
America
South
America
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
Selected
Other
All
Others
none
-
none
-
United
States
Mexico
-
Canada
-
none
-
Russia
-
Ukraine
-
China
-
India
-
Indo-
nesia
Paki-
stan
Thai-
land
Argen-
tina
Brazil
-
South
Africa
Turkey
-
none
-
Aus-
tralia
Commodity
---Million metric tons---
Wheat
2012/13 85.215.51.922.94.49.3nr23.3nr94.9121.015.837.7133.83.227.261.7596.0657.7
2013/14 prel. 95.618.01.827.05.310.5nr24.0nr93.5121.922.352.1143.33.437.558.0656.2714.2
2014/15 proj.
Jun 92.015.01.825.56.012.5nr24.5nr95.9124.020.053.0146.33.928.552.8648.8701.6
Jul 91.315.01.826.06.312.5nr24.5nr95.9124.021.053.0147.93.928.054.2651.0705.2
Coarse Grains
2012/13 167.510.612.911.484.337.24.75.68.539.9212.229.528.7146.128.924.4286.0852.41,138.4
2013/14 prel. 170.513.115.112.481.133.55.05.69.142.7225.139.935.7158.329.828.7369.4905.61,275.1
2014/15 proj.
Jun 174.79.614.011.877.135.25.05.69.241.7226.635.338.0153.130.123.1368.6890.11,258.7
Jul 175.09.614.011.877.135.25.05.69.241.7228.636.138.5154.030.121.8367.9893.31,261.2
Rice, Milled
2012/13 141.20.5nr0.88.01.020.25.836.6105.2143.00.10.72.10.1nr6.3465.3471.7
2013/14 prel. 144.90.5nr0.68.51.020.56.637.4106.3142.30.10.61.90.1nr6.1471.3477.5
2014/15 proj.
Jun 145.50.5nr0.78.51.020.56.737.7106.0144.00.10.72.00.1nr6.8473.9480.7
Jul 145.90.5nr0.68.51.020.56.737.7104.0144.00.10.72.00.1nr7.2472.2479.4
Total Grains
2012/13 393.826.614.735.196.747.624.934.745.1240.1476.245.467.1282.032.251.6354.01,913.72,267.7
2013/14 prel. 411.031.616.940.094.945.025.536.246.5242.5489.362.388.4303.633.366.2433.52,033.22,466.7
2014/15 proj.
Jun 412.225.115.838.091.648.725.536.846.9243.6494.655.491.7301.334.151.6428.22,012.82,441.0
Jul 412.225.115.838.391.948.725.536.846.9241.6496.657.292.2303.934.149.8429.32,016.52,445.8
Oilseeds
2012/13 48.92.21.45.784.853.70.65.110.836.859.912.610.928.10.919.093.1381.5474.6
2013/14 prel. 48.52.41.85.291.157.70.65.111.538.358.616.713.631.60.923.397.1406.8503.9
2014/15 proj.
Jun 48.62.31.94.294.458.50.65.012.138.757.815.214.032.11.021.6108.1407.9516.0
Jul 48.82.31.94.494.658.50.65.012.137.857.815.514.432.31.021.9113.1408.8521.9
Cotton
2012/13 16.32.70.04.66.00.80.09.30.028.535.0nrnr1.51.0nr17.3105.6123.0
2013/14 prel. 15.42.30.04.17.81.20.09.50.030.532.0nrnr1.60.9nr12.9105.4118.3
2014/15 proj.
Jun 15.12.90.13.18.31.20.09.50.028.529.5nrnr1.71.1nr15.0100.9115.9
Jul 15.22.90.12.78.01.20.09.50.028.029.5nrnr1.71.1nr16.599.9116.4
1/ Includes wheat, coarse grains, and rice (milled) shown above.
July 2014
Foreign Agricultural Service/USDA
Office of Global Analysis
27. TABLE 18
The table below presents a record of the differences between the July projection and the final Estimate.
Using world wheat production as an example, the "root mean square error” means that chances are 2 out of 3
that the current forecast will not be above or below the final estimate by more than 2.9 percent. Chances are
9 out of 10 (90% confidence level) that the difference will not exceed 4.9 percent. The average difference
between the July projection and the final estimate is 14.3 million tons, ranging from 1.0 million to 34.6 million
tons. The July projection has been below the estimate 19 times and above 14 times.
RELIABILITY OF PRODUCTION PROJECTIONS 1/
COMMODITY AND
REGION
Root mean
square error
90 percent
confidence
interval
Difference between forecast and final estimate
Average Smallest Largest
Years
Below
final
Above
final
Percent ---Million metric tons---
WHEAT
World 2.9 4.9 14.3 1.0 34.6 19 14
U.S. 3.6 6.2 1.7 0.2 6.2 15 18
Foreign 3.2 5.4 13.9 0.3 34.7 20 13
COARSE GRAINS 2/
World 2.9 5.0 21.7 3.7 68.4 17 16
U.S. 10.8 18.4 16.7 0.6 57.9 14 19
Foreign 2.5 4.2 12.6 1.1 37.9 17 16
RICE (Milled)
World 2.5 4.3 7.2 0.4 24.0 21 12
U.S. 4.8 8.1 0.2 0.0 0.6 18 13
Foreign 2.6 4.3 7.2 0.5 24.3 21 12
SOYBEANS
World 5.3 8.9 6.9 0.5 26.9 15 18
U.S. 7.3 12.3 3.4 0.2 11.7 15 18
Foreign 7.9 13.3 6.4 1.0 25.8 18 15
COTTON ---Million 480-lb. bales---
World 5.6 9.4 3.6 0.0 14.9 20 13
U.S. 10.1 17.1 1.4 0.1 5.3 19 14
Foreign 5.7 9.7 2.9 0.0 12.1 18 14
UNITED STATES -------Million bushels-------
CORN 11.9 20.1 605 12 2,190 17 16
SORGHUM 19.1 32.3 73 3 213 16 17
BARLEY 8.2 13.9 23 0 87 11 21
OATS 12.6 21.3 22 0 144 5 27
1/ Marketing years 1981/82 through 2013/14. Final for grains, soybeans and cotton is defined as the first
November estimate following the marketing year for 1981/82 through 2012/13, and for 2013/14 last month’s
estimate.
2/ Includes corn, sorghum, barley, oats, rye, millet, and mixed grain
July 2014 Office of Global Analysis, FAS, USDA