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Changes in Venture Capital

@DaveMcClure
#Pioneers2013 Vienna
October 2013
This Talk is About…
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Industry Changes: Daft Punk Startup
Myth Busting + Deconstructing: The Series A Crunch
500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets
Venture Metrics: The Lean VC
Scalable Distribution: Platforms & Community
Startup Geography: Local vs. Global vs. Valley
Dave McClure
Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups

00‟s & 10‟s:
• VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups
• Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio
• Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O‟Reilly
80‟s & 90‟s:
• Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq‟d by Servinet/Panurgy)
• Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT)
• Engineer: Johns Hopkins„88, BS Eng / Applied Math
500 Startups
Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator
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What is 500?
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$75M under management
30+ people / 10 investing partners
Locations: SV, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE Asia
1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors
25+ positive exits in ~3 years

500+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries
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Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M)
MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M)
Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M)
Twilio
SendGrid
Credit Karma
VivaReal
Udemy
Zozi
The RealReal
Virool
Visually
Gengo
PicCollage
9GAG
500 Startups: Global Seed Fund
Over 150+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries
Industry Changes, Oh.
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SW Startup Efficiency, Reduced CapX Costs
Growing Market, Growing Platforms
VC Industry Upheavals (2000, 2008)
Super Angel -> Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: FRC)
Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator)
Big VC (ex: A16Z) & Platforms (ex: Angel List)

more info see: http://PreMoney.co
Daft Punk Lean Startup:
Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
1. Startup Costs = Lower.
2. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger.
3. Transaction $$$ = Better.
 Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better
 Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable
Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions
based on Measured User Behavior
Changes in Tech Startups
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LESS Capital required to build product, get to market
– Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth
– Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc
– Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc

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MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users)
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Search (Google)
Social (Facebook, Twitter)
Mobile (Apple, Android)
Local (Yelp, Groupon, Living Social)
Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr)
Comm (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc)

LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits
– Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups
– Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution
– “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
Angel* List: It Rocks.

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Startups & Investors
Activity & Metrics
Platform & APIs
Syndicates & Backers

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*ps – not just for Angels, or USA
Startup Investor Ecosystem
Bootstrap, KickStarter,
Crowdfunding

Y-Combinator
TechStars

Angels &
Incubators
($0-10M)

SV Angel (Conway)
Floodgate (Maples)

“Micro-VC” Funds
($10-100M)

First Round
Union Square

Incubation

SoftTech (Clavier)
Felicis (Senkut)

Series A

True
“Big” VC Funds
($100-500M)

Seed

Foundry
Series B

Atomico
Greylock

“Mega” VC Funds
(>$500M)

A16Z
Sequoia

Series C+
Got Crunched Yet?

Source: Bullpen Capital
Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes
Daft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter
Before 2000
• Sun Servers
• Oracle DB
• Exodus Hosting
• 12-24mo dev cycle
• 6-18mo sales cycle
• <100M people online
• $1-2M seed round
• $3-5M Series A
• Sand Hill Road crawl
• Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup

After 2008
• AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW
• Cloud + Open Source SW
• Lean Startup / Startup Wknd
• 3-90d dev cycle
• SaaS / online sales
• >3B people online
• <$100K incub + <$1M seed
• $1-3M Series A
• Angel List global visibility
• Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
Crunch Good? Crunch Bad?
Series A bar is now higher: $1M revenue, 1M active users,
10M downloads, 100% YoY growth
• Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “fail”
• BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+
• Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, small
acquisition, or MBA alternative (<$100K)
• Series A/B VCs have lots to choose from
• Overall, founders / market getting smarter
• More focus on customers, problems, revenue
• Many die, some survive (1-5x), a few thrive (20x+).
Silicon Valley 2.0:
Lots of Little Bets
aka “MoneyBall for Startups”

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VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012)
MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets”*
1) Make lots of little
bets pre-traction,
early-stage startups

Quantitative Investing before Traction

250+ companies @ $25-100K
(1st check)
- Assume high failure rate (up to 80%)

2) after 6-12 months, identify
top 20% performers and
double-down higher $$$

Double-Down after
Traction
50+ ‘winners’ @ $100K-$1M
(2nd + 3rd check)
- - Target 10+ exits @ $100M+

3) conservative model assumes
- 5-10% large exits @20X ($50-100M+)
- 10-20% small exits @5X ($5-50M)

15
*See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”
The Lean VC:
Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment

Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental
investment, iterative development. Start with many
small experiments, filter out failures, and expand
investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat).
• Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”)
• Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””)
• Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
Investment Stage #1:
Product Validation + Customer Usage
• Structure
– 1-3 founders
– $25-$100K investment
– Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors

• Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP):
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Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months
Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.”
Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics
Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users)

• Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use
• Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
Investment Stage #2:
Market Validation + Revenue Testing
• Structure
– 2-10 person team
– $100K-$1M investment
– Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds

• Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue:
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Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months
Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.”
Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost
Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments

• Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size
• Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity
• Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
Investment Stage #3:
Revenue Validation + Growth
• Structure
– 5-25 person team
– $1M-$10M investment
– Seed & Venture Investors

• Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability:
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Beta->Production, 12-24 months
Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!”
Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget
Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations
Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth

• Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business
• Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
Platforms + Distribution
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Mentors: Engineering, Design, Marketing
Distribution: Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Local
Global: LatAm, Asia, India, EU, ME, Africa
Social: LinkedIn, Quora, Angel List
Angel List, Second Market, Trusted Insight
Dashboard.io, MatterMark, Funders Club
Platforms 2.0
Search, Social, Mobile,
Video, Messaging
Distribution Platforms
Customer Reach: 100M-1B+
• Search: Google, Baidu, Yahoo/Bing, Yandex
• Social: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, TenCent/QQ, WeChat
• Mobile: Apple (iOS), Android
• Media: Video (YouTube), Photos (Instagram, Pinterest), Blogs
• Comm: SMS, IM (WeChat, WhatsApp), Skype, Phone/Voice, etc
Going Local, Going
Global
web gets bigger -> world gets smaller
Local vs Global?
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The Valley is Unique… (but it’s not just California)
Emerging / Developing Markets
Global Languages: English, Chinese, Spanish, Arabic
Startup Ecosystems: Education, Mentorship, Capital
Limited History of Exits & IPOs
Does the Future look different? (yes, we think so)
More Coming: Payments, Logistics, Mobile/Web
Penetration, Growing Middle Class, Distribution
Questions? Comments? Heckles?
• Thanks for Listening
• Feedback Appreciated
• Still Learning / Iterating
• More Info?
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http://500.co (our company)
http://500hats.com (my blog)
https://angel.co/500startups (our fund)
Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure

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Changes in Venture Capital (Pioneers, Vienna)

  • 1. Changes in Venture Capital @DaveMcClure #Pioneers2013 Vienna October 2013
  • 2. This Talk is About… • • • • • • Industry Changes: Daft Punk Startup Myth Busting + Deconstructing: The Series A Crunch 500 Strategy: Lots of Little Bets Venture Metrics: The Lean VC Scalable Distribution: Platforms & Community Startup Geography: Local vs. Global vs. Valley
  • 3. Dave McClure Founding Partner & Chief Troublemaker, 500 Startups 00‟s & 10‟s: • VC: Founders Fund, Facebook fbFund, 500 Startups • Angel: Mashery, Mint.com, SlideShare, Twilio • Marketing: PayPal, Simply Hired, Mint.com, O‟Reilly 80‟s & 90‟s: • Entrepreneur: Aslan Computing (acq‟d by Servinet/Panurgy) • Developer: Windows / SQL DB consultant (Intel, MSFT) • Engineer: Johns Hopkins„88, BS Eng / Applied Math
  • 4. 500 Startups Global Seed Fund & Startup Accelerator • What is 500? – – – – – • $75M under management 30+ people / 10 investing partners Locations: SV, NYC, MEX, BRZ, IND, CHN, SE Asia 1000+ Founders / 200+ Mentors 25+ positive exits in ~3 years 500+ Portfolio Co’s / 40+ Countries – – – – – – – – – – – – – – – Wildfire (acq GOOG, $350M) MakerBot (acq SSYS, $400M) Viki (acq Rakuten, $200M) Twilio SendGrid Credit Karma VivaReal Udemy Zozi The RealReal Virool Visually Gengo PicCollage 9GAG
  • 5. 500 Startups: Global Seed Fund Over 150+ startups outside US, in 40+ countries
  • 6. Industry Changes, Oh. • • • • • • SW Startup Efficiency, Reduced CapX Costs Growing Market, Growing Platforms VC Industry Upheavals (2000, 2008) Super Angel -> Micro VC: Seed Funds (ex: FRC) Incubators & Accelerators (ex: Y Combinator) Big VC (ex: A16Z) & Platforms (ex: Angel List) more info see: http://PreMoney.co
  • 7. Daft Punk Lean Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter 1. Startup Costs = Lower. 2. # Users, Bandwidth = Bigger. 3. Transaction $$$ = Better.  Building Product => Cheaper, Faster, Better  Getting Customers => Easier, More Measurable Iterative Product & Marketing Decisions based on Measured User Behavior
  • 8. Changes in Tech Startups • LESS Capital required to build product, get to market – Dramatically reduced $$$ on servers, software, bandwidth – Crowdfunding, KickStarter, Angel List, Funders Club, etc – Cheap access to online platforms for 100M+ consumers, smallbiz, etc • MORE Customers via ONLINE platforms (100M+ users) – – – – – – • Search (Google) Social (Facebook, Twitter) Mobile (Apple, Android) Local (Yelp, Groupon, Living Social) Media (YouTube, Pinterest, Instagram, Tumblr) Comm (Email, IM/Chat, Voice, SMS, etc) LOTS of little bets: Accelerators, Angels, Angel List, Small Exits – Y Combinator, TechStars, 500 Startups – Funding + Co-working + Mentoring -> Design, Data, Distribution – “Fast, Cheap Fail”, network effects, quantitative + iterative investments
  • 9. Angel* List: It Rocks. • • • • Startups & Investors Activity & Metrics Platform & APIs Syndicates & Backers • *ps – not just for Angels, or USA
  • 10. Startup Investor Ecosystem Bootstrap, KickStarter, Crowdfunding Y-Combinator TechStars Angels & Incubators ($0-10M) SV Angel (Conway) Floodgate (Maples) “Micro-VC” Funds ($10-100M) First Round Union Square Incubation SoftTech (Clavier) Felicis (Senkut) Series A True “Big” VC Funds ($100-500M) Seed Foundry Series B Atomico Greylock “Mega” VC Funds (>$500M) A16Z Sequoia Series C+
  • 11. Got Crunched Yet? Source: Bullpen Capital
  • 12. Before & After 2 Dot-Com Crashes Daft Punk Startup: Simpler, Faster, Cheaper, Smarter Before 2000 • Sun Servers • Oracle DB • Exodus Hosting • 12-24mo dev cycle • 6-18mo sales cycle • <100M people online • $1-2M seed round • $3-5M Series A • Sand Hill Road crawl • Big, Fat, Dinosaur Startup After 2008 • AWS, Google, PayPal, FB, TW • Cloud + Open Source SW • Lean Startup / Startup Wknd • 3-90d dev cycle • SaaS / online sales • >3B people online • <$100K incub + <$1M seed • $1-3M Series A • Angel List global visibility • Lean, Little, Cockroach Startup
  • 13. Crunch Good? Crunch Bad? Series A bar is now higher: $1M revenue, 1M active users, 10M downloads, 100% YoY growth • Lots of Incubation / Seed startups will “fail” • BUT: Fail Budget = $50-$500K, not $5M+ • Many “failed” startups = ramen-profitable, small acquisition, or MBA alternative (<$100K) • Series A/B VCs have lots to choose from • Overall, founders / market getting smarter • More focus on customers, problems, revenue • Many die, some survive (1-5x), a few thrive (20x+).
  • 14. Silicon Valley 2.0: Lots of Little Bets aka “MoneyBall for Startups” • • VC Evolution: Physician, Scale Thyself (Aug 2012) MoneyBall for Startups, 500 Startups Investment Thesis (Jul 2010)
  • 15. 500 Strategy: “Lots of Little Bets”* 1) Make lots of little bets pre-traction, early-stage startups Quantitative Investing before Traction 250+ companies @ $25-100K (1st check) - Assume high failure rate (up to 80%) 2) after 6-12 months, identify top 20% performers and double-down higher $$$ Double-Down after Traction 50+ ‘winners’ @ $100K-$1M (2nd + 3rd check) - - Target 10+ exits @ $100M+ 3) conservative model assumes - 5-10% large exits @20X ($50-100M+) - 10-20% small exits @5X ($5-50M) 15 *See Peter Sims book: “Little Bets”
  • 16. The Lean VC: Lots of Little Bets, Incremental Investment Method: Invest in lots of startups using incremental investment, iterative development. Start with many small experiments, filter out failures, and expand investment in successes… (Rinse & Repeat). • Incubator: $0-100K (“Build & Validate Product”) • Seed: $100K-$1M (“Test & Grow Marketing Channels””) • Venture: $1M-$10M (“Maximize Growth & Revenue”)
  • 17. Investment Stage #1: Product Validation + Customer Usage • Structure – 1-3 founders – $25-$100K investment – Incubator environment: multiple peers, mentors/advisors • Test Functional Prototype / “Minimum Viable Product” (MVP): – – – – Prototype->Alpha, ~3-6 months Develop Minimal Critical Feature Set => Get to “It Works! Someone Uses It.” Improve Design & Usability, Setup Conversion Metrics Test Small-Scale Customer Adoption (10-1000 users) • Demonstrate Concept, Reduce Product Risk, Test Functional Use • Develop Metrics & Filter for Possible Future Investment
  • 18. Investment Stage #2: Market Validation + Revenue Testing • Structure – 2-10 person team – $100K-$1M investment – Syndicate of Angel Investors / Small VC Funds • Improve Product, Expand Customers, Test Revenue: – – – – Alpha->Beta, ~6-12 months Scale Customer Adoption => “Many People Use It, & They Pay.” Test Marketing Campaigns, Customer Acquisition Channels + Cost Test Revenue Generation, Find Profitable Customer Segments • Prove Solution/Benefit, Assess Market Size • Test Channel Cost, Revenue Opportunity • Determine Org Structure, Key Hires
  • 19. Investment Stage #3: Revenue Validation + Growth • Structure – 5-25 person team – $1M-$10M investment – Seed & Venture Investors • Make Money (or Go Big), Get to Sustainability: – – – – – Beta->Production, 12-24 months Revenue / Growth => “We Can Make (a lot of) Money!” Mktg Plan => Predictable Channels / Campaigns + Budget Scalability & Infrastructure, Customer Service & Operations Connect with Distribution Partners, Expand Growth • Prove/Expand Market, Operationalize Business • Future Milestones: Profitable/Sustainable, Exit Options
  • 20. Platforms + Distribution • • • • • • Mentors: Engineering, Design, Marketing Distribution: Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Local Global: LatAm, Asia, India, EU, ME, Africa Social: LinkedIn, Quora, Angel List Angel List, Second Market, Trusted Insight Dashboard.io, MatterMark, Funders Club
  • 21. Platforms 2.0 Search, Social, Mobile, Video, Messaging
  • 22. Distribution Platforms Customer Reach: 100M-1B+ • Search: Google, Baidu, Yahoo/Bing, Yandex • Social: Facebook, Twitter, LinkedIn, TenCent/QQ, WeChat • Mobile: Apple (iOS), Android • Media: Video (YouTube), Photos (Instagram, Pinterest), Blogs • Comm: SMS, IM (WeChat, WhatsApp), Skype, Phone/Voice, etc
  • 23. Going Local, Going Global web gets bigger -> world gets smaller
  • 24. Local vs Global? • • • • • • • The Valley is Unique… (but it’s not just California) Emerging / Developing Markets Global Languages: English, Chinese, Spanish, Arabic Startup Ecosystems: Education, Mentorship, Capital Limited History of Exits & IPOs Does the Future look different? (yes, we think so) More Coming: Payments, Logistics, Mobile/Web Penetration, Growing Middle Class, Distribution
  • 25. Questions? Comments? Heckles? • Thanks for Listening • Feedback Appreciated • Still Learning / Iterating • More Info? – – – – http://500.co (our company) http://500hats.com (my blog) https://angel.co/500startups (our fund) Dave McClure, @DaveMcClure