3. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
L O N G ES T G R O W T H C Y C L E I N T H R E E D E C A D ES
A S I A O U T P E R F O R M S B U T I S N O T I M M U N E F R O M G L O B A L D O W N T U R N
Source: Oxford Economics, December 2018.
-2
0
2
4
6
8
10
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019F
RealGDPgrowth,%
9 years 9 years 7 years 10 years
Asia
World
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
4. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
W H A T M I G H T B R I N G T H E C Y C L E T O A N E N D ?
I T W O N ’ T B E G E O PO LI T I C S
Source: OECD, Stratfor and CBRE Research, December 2018.
4
5
6
7
8
9
1980 1983 1986 1988 1991 1994 1996 1999 2002 2004 2007 2010 2012 2015 2018
GAZA WAR
RUSSO-GEORGIAN WAR
SYRIA WAR
ISIS
EMERGES
JAPANESE TSUNAMI
PARIS BOMBING
BREXIT
CRIMEA
ANNEXED
BERLIN WALL FALLS
IRAQ INVADES KUWAIT
1ST GULF WAR
BRITISH RULE
IN HONG KONG ENDS
EUROZONE
CREATED
9 / 11
US INVASION OF IRAQ
MADRID
TRAIN BOMBING
FALL OF
THE SOVIET UNION
BOSNIAN
WAR ENDS
INDIRA GANDHI
KILLED
REAGAN
SHOT
FALKLANDS
WAR
GLASNOST
IN USSR
US EMBASSY
IN BEIRUT BOMBED
IRAN-IRAQ
WAR ENDS
MAASTRICHT
TREATY
IRAN-IRAQ
WAR STARTS
CATALONIA REFERENDUM TRUMP TARIFFS
ANNOUNCED
G7 Unemployment (%, Monthly, SA)
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
5. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
IT IS RELATIVE INTEREST RATES THAT MATTER
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
4.0
4.5
5.0
5.5
6.0
6.5
7.0
7.5
8.0
8.5
1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018
G7 Unemployment Rate (%, LHS) G7 Interest Rate, Deviation from Trend (%, RHS)
G7 Unemployment and Interest Rate (Quarterly, %)
Source: Oxford Economics and CBRE Research, Q3 2018.
SPIKE
SPIKE
SPIKE
NO
SPIKE
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
6. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
* The commercial lending rate is calculated by adding minimum interest rate spread to the reference rate under typical commercial property lending terms
Source: US Federal Reserve, CBRE Research, December 2018.
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017
2018
2019
2020
%
Fed Funds Rate
Long-term target rate
Forecast
US Fed Fund Rate
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
China Hong
Kong
Korea Australia Singapore Japan
2016 2017 2018
Commercial lending rate* across the region
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
PAC E O F R AT E H I K E S P O S ES A C O N U N D RUM
B U T T H E E R A O F C H E A P F I N A N C I N G I S C O M I N G T O A N E N D
7. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: CBRE Research, December 2018.
The value of goods (US$ bn)
subject to U.S. tariffs is already equal
to half of the total imports
from China in 2017
34 16
200 200
505
6-Jul-18 23-Aug-18 24-Sep-18 2019 2019
Effective dates
25% tariff
10%
tariff
25%
tariff
90-day truce ends on March 1
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
or
N O E N D I N S I G H T TO U. S. - C H I NA T R A D E D I S P U TE
8. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
C A P ITA L VA LUE G R O WT H IS WE L L A H E A D O F R E N TS
Source: CBRE Research, December 2018.
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008Q3
2009Q3
2010Q3
2011Q3
2012Q3
2013Q3
2014Q3
2015Q3
2016Q3
2017Q3
2018Q3
IndexQ32008=100
Capital Value Index Rental Value Index
OFFICE
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008Q3
2009Q3
2010Q3
2011Q3
2012Q3
2013Q3
2014Q3
2015Q3
2016Q3
2017Q3
2018Q3
IndexQ32008=100
Capital Value Index Rental Value Index
RETAIL
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2008Q3
2009Q3
2010Q3
2011Q3
2012Q3
2013Q3
2014Q3
2015Q3
2016Q3
2017Q3
2018Q3
IndexQ32008=100
Capital Value Index Rental Value Index
LOGISTICS
Price: +48%
Rent: 0%
Price: +78%
Rent: +21%
Price: +38%
Rent: +21%
10-year performance of Asia Pacific Rental Value and Capital Value Indices
9. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
W I L L N E G AT I VE C A R RY B E N O R MAL
O R S H O U L D W E B E C O N C E R NE D ?
Source: CBRE Research, January 2019.
Prime yield relative to borrowing cost
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
HongKong
Guangzhou
Beijing
Shanghai
Taipei
Singapore
Sydney
Melbourne
Seoul
Brisbane
Auckland
Tokyo
Perth
HongKong
Guangzhou
Shanghai
Beijing
Melbourne
Sydney
Taipei
Auckland
Singapore
Brisbane
Tokyo
HongKong
Beijing
Shanghai
Auckland
Brisbane
Sydney
Melbourne
Perth
Tokyo
Singapore
Primeyield(2019F)Borrowingcost(2018)
LOGISTICSRETAILOFFICE
Spread
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
10. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
HongKong
Guangzhou
Beijing
Shanghai
Taipei
Singapore
Sydney
Melbourne
Seoul
Brisbane
Auckland
Tokyo
Perth
HongKong
Guangzhou
Shanghai
Beijing
Melbourne
Sydney
Taipei
Auckland
Singapore
Brisbane
Tokyo
HongKong
Beijing
Shanghai
Auckland
Brisbane
Sydney
Melbourne
Perth
Tokyo
Singapore
Aggregatethreeyearsrentalgrowth
Primeyield(2019F)
N E G ATI VE C A R RY M AY B E J U S T I F I E D BY
S T R O N G R E NTAL G R O W T H
Source: CBRE Research, January 2019.
Prime yield relative to borrowing cost vs three year rental growth
Borrowingcost(2018)
LOGISTICSRETAILOFFICE
Spread Aggregate three years rental growth
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
11. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
OFFICE
Smarter space usage
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
12. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
KEY OFFICE SECTOR CHANGES
Stronger influence of coworking1 Service differentiation by landlords2
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
Financial
Resources
Life Science
TMT
Flexible office
Leasing activity by sector in 2018
New Setup Additional office Consolidation Relocation
(Coworking and
serviced office)
Tenants seeking value beyond the traditional
criteria of location, accessibility and rents
The 4Cs
Coworking Customisation
Corporate Social
Responsibility
Community
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Note: Beijing, Shanghai, Hong Kong, Singapore, Seoul, Bangalore, Delhi NCR, Mumbai and Sydney CBD are the markets
covered.
Source: CBRE Research, December 2018
2019F
13. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
E
2019
F
2020
F
(%)
NFA(millionsq.ft.)
Grade A office net absorption and new supply
New Supply Net Absorption Annual Vacancy Rate (%, RHS)
S U P PLY - D EMA ND G A P T O W I D E N I N 2 0 1 9
M O S T N E W S T O C K I N D E C E N T R A L I S E D L O C A T I O N S
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: CBRE Research, November 2018
52%
82%
74%
96%
82%
- 5 10 15 20 25
Shanghai
Bangalore
Delhi NCR
Shenzhen
Tokyo
Millions q. ft. NFA
New supply in top five markets (2019-2020F)
CBD / Core Non CBD
14. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
N E W O F F I C E P R O J EC TS E M PH A SI S E D I F F ERENT I AT I O N
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: Various news sources, CBRE Research, December 2018
Crystal Plaza, Shanghai
Location: Pudong Decentralised Area
Date of opening: by phase (Q2 2018 – Q1
2019)
One Taikoo Place, Hong
Kong
Location: Quarry Bay
Date of opening: Q3 2018
Paya Lebar Quarter,
Singapore
Location: Decentralised Area
Date of opening: Q3 2018
15. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
R E N TA L G R O W T H T O F A L L B E L O W F I V E - Y EAR A V E RA GE
G U A N G Z H O U & S I N G A P O R E T H E E X C E P T I O N S . P E R T H T O R E C O V E R
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Note: The rental growth is based on effective Grade A rent in the CBD/core location of each market, unless specified
Source: CBRE Research, November 2018
Grade A office net effective rental growth
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
Singapore
Guangzhou
HoChiMinhCity
Perth
Brisbane
Hanoi
Mumbai-BKC
Bangalore-ORR
Bangalore-CBD
Sydney
Manila
Melbourne
Bangkok
Gurgaon-Core
Taipei
Tokyo
Shenzhen
Seoul-CBD
Beijing
KualaLumpur
Auckland
Shanghai
Jakarta
HongKong
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
2019F 5-year average
SlowingOutperforming Recovering Declining
16. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
RETAIL
Omnichannel evolution
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
17. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
K E Y R E T A I L S E C T O R C H A N G ES
24.5%
26.4%
19.3%
16.8%
1.8% 2.3%
1.2% 2.0%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Asia Pacific online and offline retail sales growth
Online
Offline
Source: Euromonitor, January 2019.
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Rationalisation of online sales growth1 Effective tenant mix adjustment in malls2
Source: CBRE Research, January 2019.
11.9%
36.0%
28.4%
15.6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
New Retail Entrants to Asia Pacific: by Trade
F&B
Value to Mid-range Fashion
18. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
TE NA NT MI X L E A NS TOWA RD E XP E R I E NCE -BA SE D R E TA I L
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: Companies website, January 2019.
Hobbies/ Leisure
ABC Cooking Studio
Shanghai: iapm
Taipei: Taipei 101
Singapore: Westgate
Kuala Lumpur: The Gardens Mall
Jakarta: Central Park
SuperPark
Hong Kong: One Silversea
Suzhou: Olympic Sports Centre
Singapore: Suntec City
Kuala Lumpur: Avenue K
Indoor park
Yi Tiao
• Capitamall LuOne, Huaihai
• LC Mall, Pudong
Decentralised
• Skymall, Xinzhuang
New Retail
19. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
HCMC
Tokyo(Ginza)
Guangzhou
Singapore
Brisbane
HongKong
Hanoi
Beijing
Sydney
Shanghai
Shenzhen
Auckland
Taipei
Melbourne
2019F 5-year average
WE A K R E C OVERY A N D
S L O W I N G R E N TAL G R O W T H T O C O N T I N UE
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Outperforming Recovering Slowing
Remarks: All the above are high street rents except China, Singapore and Auckland tracked shopping centres rents.
Source: CBRE Research, December 2018.
20. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
LOGISTICS
Operational and portfolio
upgrading
21. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
Kerry Logistics DHL Singapore Post Yamato SF Express
Operating Profit Margin: FY 2016 vs FY 2017
FY 2016 FY 2017
E - C O MMERCE T O G R O W B U T M A RG I NS A R E T I G H T
Remarks: DHL – Pep + Express, Kerry Logistics - Integrated Logistics - Logistics Operations, Singapore Post –
Logistics, Yamato - Delivery Business + BIZ-Logistics Business, SF Group - Total
Source: Capital IQ, January 2019.
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Every US$1billion e-commerce sales needs…
FY 2015 - 2017
1.23 million sq. ft.
FY 2017
1.85 million sq. ft.
E-retailers increase portfolios 3PLs face tight margin
Source: JD.com, Amazon, MWPVL, January 2019
22. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
FOCUS ON EFFICIENCY AND LAST -MILE LOGISTICS
2012 2018
Fresh Distribution Center
Delivery Stations
Regional Sortation Centers &
Cross Docking Centers
Fullfillment Centers
9
76
Amazon’s Warehouse facilities in U.S.
(Number of completion during 2012 and 2018)
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: MWPVL International, January 2019
23. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
S T R O N G D E M AND F O R M O D ERN L O G I S T I C S F A C I L I T I ES
Prime logistics stock as a % of total stock
Industrial investment turnover
in Southeast Asia and India (excl. Singapore)
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
2016 2017 2018
Investmentturnover(US$mil)
Industrial development site Completed industrial properties
Australia ~10%
Japan 4%-5%
China
3%-4%Korea
2%-3%
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: RCA, CBRE Research, January 2019.
24. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
-6%
-4%
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
Shanghai
Beijing
Auckland
Shenzhen
Guangzhou
Sydney
NorthVietnam
SouthVietnam
HongKong
Melbourne
GreaterTokyo
Brisbane
Singapore
Perth
2019F 5-year average
S T E A D Y L O G I S T I C S R E NT AL G R O W T H
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
RecoveringOutperformingOn par
Remarks: The historical growth rate of Vietnam is a 2-year.
Source: CBRE Research, December 2018.
25. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
S U P PLY C H A I N S - P O L I C Y C H A N G ES
Industrial developers/ investors
• More incentives for developing
institutional grade industrial assets
India
Relaxation of Integrated
Industrial Area (IIA) policy
100% FDI permitted to boost
manufacturing sector
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: CBRE Research, January 2019.
China
Introduction of M0
(新型产业用地)
General Industrial use
→ Business Park
Supports development of
high-tech manufacturing
Logistics operators
• Less industrial space for logistics
development
26. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Enhancing Resilience
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
27. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
LOGISTICS
GROWGROW + ELEVATE
• Enlarge urban logistics
footprint and capacity
• Upgrade warehouse
systems and portfolio
quality to achieve better
operational efficiency
STRATEGIES FOR ENHANCING RESILIENCE
INVESTMENT
PROFIT REBALANCE
• Prepare exit routes and
lock-in profits on early
investments
• Review portfolios and
focus on asset
repositioning
RETAIL
ONLINE OFFLINE
• Expand omnichannel
capabilities to
integrate online and
offline sales
• Focus experience-
based offering in main
stores
OFFICE
CORE x FLEXI
• Evaluate leasing decisions
based on cost and
flexibility
• Prioritise flexible space
solutions that
complement core
portfolios
28. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Real estate
Debt Opportunities
Office Sector Debt
Decentralisation
to capture occupier
demand for cost saving
Markets with
Strong Rental Growth
Hong Kong
Beijing
Shanghai
Singapore
Guangzhou
Perth
Australia
China
I N V E S TMENT T H E MES – C Y C L I C A L P L A Y S
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: CBRE Research, January 2019.
29. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Modern Logistics
Facilities
Developed Markets Beijing
Shanghai
Hong Kong
Singapore
Japan
Korea
China
Australia
Southeast Asia
India
Data Centres
Multifamily
I N V E S TMENT T H E MES – S T R U C T URA L P L A Y S
Placemaking Niche Sectors
Core Assets
- Defensive
Investments
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: CBRE Research, January 2019.
31. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
CONTENTS
01
HANOI OFFICE
02
HANOI RETAIL
03
HANOI RESIDENTIAL
04
HANOI HOTEL
32. HANOI OFFICE
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9 V I E T N A M
33. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Office performance improved amid limited new supply
Grade A’s vacancy at 10-year low (4.3%)
Pre-commitment seen in new projects
H A N O I O F F I C E
2 0 1 8 H I G H L I G H T S
Flexible Workspace emerged as a major source of demand
34. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
OFFICE - MARKET SNAPSHOT IN 2018
Improving market performance amid limited new supply
(*) Asking rent excludes Service charge and VAT
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
Grade A Grade B
No new supply
since 2016
2 new buildings
(+48,000 sm, NLA)
US$25.4
▲ 2.2% y-o-y
4.3%
▼ -4.6 ppts y-o-y
12.2%
▼ -5.2 ppts y-o-y
US$13.9
▲ 1.6% y-o-y
HANOI HCMC
Grade A Grade B
No new supply 1 new building
(+3,600 sm, NLA)
US$43.5
▲ 15.8% y-o-y
5.1%
▼ -3.1 ppts y-o-y
1.8%
▼ -1.1 ppts y-o-y
US$23.4
▲ 10.8% y-o-y
H A N O I O F F I C E
NLA (sm)
US$/sm
/month
Vacancy
(%)
35. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I O F F I C E – G R A D E A ’ S V A C A N C Y A T 1 0 - Y E A R L O W
Rental rates increased y-o-y in both grades
35
0.00%
10.00%
20.00%
30.00%
40.00%
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Vacancyrate(%)
Askingrents
Grade A - Asking Rent Grade B - Asking Rent
Grade A - Vacancy Grade B - Vacancy
Hanoi Office, Rent and Vacancy by Year
H A N O I O F F I C E
(*) Asking rent excludes Service charge and VAT
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
36. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I O F F I C E – H I G H E S T A B S O R P T I O N O V E R T H E P A S T T H R E E
Y E A R S
Shorter time to stabilize
36
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
(NLA,sm)
Grade A Grade B
New buildings opened in 2017
achieved 90 – 100% occupancy after 1 year
Eurowindow
(NLA: 6,304 sm)
Richy
(NLA: 7,343 sm)
Central Point
(NLA: 14,123 sm)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4/2018.
H A N O I O F F I C E
Horison Tower
(NLA: 8,384 sm)
37. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I O F F I C E – S U P P L Y G R O W T H A T L O W E R R A T E
Stronger Pre-Commitment level at new buildings
(*) Pre-commitment recorded prior to opening of the building
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4/2018.
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
NLA(sm)
Grade A Grade B
Hanoi Office Supply, NLA sm
+9%+5%+3%Supply growth
Detech Tower II
Grade B – Q4 2018
NLA: 15,000 sm
Pre-commitment: 50%
FLC Twin Towers
Grade B – Q1 2019
NLA: 23,500 sm
Pre-commitment: 13%
H A N O I O F F I C E
Pre-commitment (*) seen
in recently and upcoming
completed projects
38. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
31%
16%
13%
13%
9%
9%
8% CWS
Insurance
Energy
IT
Healthcare
Real Estate
Education
H A N O I O F F I C E – L A R G E R T E N A N C I E S
C o - w o r k i n g s p a c e e m e r g e d a s a m a j o r s o u r c e o f d e m a n d
38
List of Major Transactions in Hanoi (>=1,000 sm)
No. Area Size Industry
1 Midtown 4,000 Energy
2 Midtown 3,400 Co-working
3 Midtown 2,700 Real Estate
4 CBD 2,700 Co-working
5 West 2,500 IT
6 Midtown 2,200 Co-working
7 West 2,200 Insurance
8 CBD 1,500 Education
9 Midtown 1,500 Insurance
10 Midtown 1,500 Healthcare
11 West 1,500 IT
12 Midtown 1,300 Insurance
13 Midtown 1,300 Healthcare
14 West 1,263 Co-working
15 West 1,000 Education
Co-working leads the major transactions of
equal or above 1,000 sm
Note: Leasing transactions recorded by CBRE Vietnam
Source: CBRE Vietnam, 2018.
Co-working
H A N O I O F F I C E
39. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
0%
50%
100%
150%
200%
250%
300%
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Growthrate(%)
GFA(sm)
GFA (sm) Growth rate
V I E T N A M
G R O W T H O F C O - W O R K I N G S P A C E I N H A N O I :
I m p r e s s i v e g r o w t h ( + 8 1 % y - o - y )
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4/2018.
39
Acc. Number
of venues
H A N O I O F F I C E
First
introduced
in Vietnam
since
1997 2015 - 2017 2018
Operator
A U.S.
operator
# of venues
by 2018 (*)
7 3 6 7 3 1
Total GFA
by 2018
(sm) (*)
6,629 4,500 7,450 12,500 6,800 5,425HANOI CO-WORKING SPACE
Total supply (GFA): 25,000 sqm
Occupancy Rate: ~70%
Major operators in flexible workplace in Vietnam
(*) Including Hanoi and HCMC
40. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
40
F L E X I B L E W O R K S P A C E D E M A N D
N o t j u s t f o r S t a r t - u p / S M E s
10%
33%
23%
13%
18%
4%
Start-up
SME
Large Company
Corporation
MNC
Others
Occupiers by Company TypeNew Tenant: MNCs and Big Companies
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018.
H A N O I O F F I C E
41. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
F U T U R E S U P P L Y A C R O S S O F F I C E C L U S T E R S
F u r t h e r e x p a n s i o n o f o f f i c e c l u s t e r i n t h e W e s t n e x t 5 y e a r s
Grade A Office
Grade B Office
H A N O I O F F I C E
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4/2018.
Larger West
Sub-market
14 projects ~278,000 sm NLA
2019 (NLA: 104,000 sm)
Thai Square
Hoan Kiem Dist.
24,545 sm NLA
Grade A
– Under construction
TCB Tower
17,000 sm NLA
Grade B
– Under construction
Thanh Cong Office
Cau Giay Dist.
17,190 sm NLA
Grade B
– Under construction
2020 (NLA: 126,000 sm)
Capital Place
Ba Dinh Dist.
94,400 sm NLA
Grade A
– Under construction
BRG Grand Plaza
34,000 sm NLA
Grade B
– Under construction
2021 (NLA: 48,000 sm)
Coninco Building
Dong Da Dist.
19,000 sm NLA
Grade B
– Under construction
42. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
M A R K E T O U T L O O K
G r a d u a l r e n t a l g r o w t h e x p e c t e d i n b o t h g r a d e s
H A N O I O F F I C E
Hanoi Office, Rent Forecast Hanoi Office, Vacancy Forecast
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
(*) Asking rent (US$/sm/month) excludes Service charge and VAT
Source: CBRE Vietnam.
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Grade A Grade B
43. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
New Grade A
Supply in CBD
Grade A: Stabilized rents in
existing projects
New completed projects
ask for higher rents than
average
Co-working
space – A
major source
of demand
H A N O I O F F I C E
2 0 1 9 M A R K E T T R E N D S
1 2 3
44. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
HANOI RETAIL
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9 V I E T N A M
45. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
K E Y H I G H L I G H T S
Local supermarket brands gain strong
foothold
The Rise of E-retailing
Provincial Retail
1
3
2
4
H A N O I R E T A I L
Local brands go global
Construction
and opening of new
shopping mall in 2nd
tier cities
Bac Ninh, My
Tho, Nghe
An, Son La…..
PAY
46. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
T H E R I S E O F E - R E T A I L I N G
E l e c t r o n i c p a y m e n t , e - c o m m e r c e , f o o d d e l i v e r y
V I E T N A M R E T A I L
Source: CBRE Research, VTV
Lala food
delivery
application
cease to exist?
Some key players in Vietnam market
47. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9V I E T N A M R E T A I L
Source: CBRE Research, Bizhub
L O C A L B R A N D S G O G L O B A L
48. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9V I E T N A M R E T A I L
Central Group Vietnam introduces
GO! My Tho
08:23 | 17/11/2018
Ground-breaking of AEONMALL Shopping
Centre in Hai Phong
13-05-2018 - 20:51 PM
P R O V I N C I A L R E T A I L
In 2018, Vincom put into operation 20 new
shopping centres across the country
Sunday, Dec 23, 2018 22:46
Source: CBRE Research, retrieved from newspapers, 8 January 2019.
49. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
S U P E R M A R K E T : L O C A L P L A Y E R S H A V E S T R O N G F O O T H O L D
N e w f o r e i g n p l a y e r e n t r a n c e s
Hanoi supermarkets
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4/2018.
H A N O I R E T A I L
41
4
6
Q4 2018Q4 2015
13
0
5
50. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I R E T A I L – L O W E R C O M P L E T I O N S I N Q 4 2 0 1 8
Hanoi Retail Supply, NLA sm
H A N O I R E TA I L
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4/2018.
Q2 2018
Truong Dinh Plaza
~10,820 sm
Q3 2018
Discovery Complex
~21,632 sm NLA
Q2 2018
Machinco
~14,610 sm
Q4 2018
Vincom Center Metropolis
~25,440 sm NLA
Newly opened projects
-
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
'000sm,NLA
CBD Midtown and the West Other Non-CBD
BANGKOK: 7 MILLION SM NLA
HCMC: 1 MILLION SM NLA
51. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9V I E T N A M R E T A I L
NLA (sm)
US$/sm
/month
(%)
Note: Average rent on ground floor, excluding VAT
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018.
2 0 1 8 M A R K E T S N A P S H O T
1.2 ppts y-o-y
HANOI
Total Supply
Asking Rent
Vacancy Rate
865,000
9.2% y-o-y
0.4% y-o-y
3% y-o-y
2 ppts y-o-y
CBD 99.5
Non-CBD 29.3
CBD 0.6%
Non-CBD 10.2%
HCMC
Total Supply
Asking Rent
Vacancy Rate
992,824
16% y-o-y
= y-o-y
1.4 ppts y-o-y
2.6% y-o-y
2.8 ppts y-o-y
CBD 128
Non-CBD 35.8
CBD 3%
Non-CBD 9%
52. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9H A N O I R E T A I L
N E W E N T R A N T S T O H A N O I
A c t i v e E x p a n s i o n b y A s i a n B r a n d s / C o n c e p t s
Source: CBRE Research
Luxury brands
53. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9H A N O I R E T A I L
V I E T N A M E S E C O N S U M E R C O N F I D E N C E A T A N A L L - T I M E H I G H
Vietnam Consumer Confidence IndexVietnam GDP Growth
Source: General Statistics Office Source: Nielsen
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
GDP Growth in 2018
peaked at 7.08%
54. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
BA DINH
TAY HO
HOAN
KIEM
DONG
DA HAI BA
TRUNG
LONG
BIEN
HOANG
MAI
CAU GIAY
TU LIEM
DONG
ANH
HOAI DUC
HA DONG
THANH
TRI
GIA
LAM
THANH
XUAN
FLC Twin Towers
~14,400 sm NLA
WESTLAKE
Vincom Tran Duy Hung
~31,000 sm NLA
Hinode City
~42,200 sm
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4/2018.
More supply
in the WEST
H A N O I R E T A I L
FUTURE SUPPLY IN 2019
R e t a i l p o d i u m a s a t r e n d
Sun Plaza Ancora
~19,830 sm NLA
Vincom Skylake
~15,000 sm
55. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9H A N O I R E T A I L
F O R E C A S T F O R T H E N E X T T H R E E Y E A R S
Hanoi Retail, Rent and Vacancy Forecast
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018.
0.00
20.00
40.00
60.00
80.00
100.00
120.00
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Askingrent(US$psmpm)
NLA,thousandssm
Occupied space Vacant space Rent - CBD Rent - Non CBD
56. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Strong consumer
confidence
E-retailing
continues its
march
Large-scale
projects with
foreign players
will create new
retail
destinations
Asian
brands/concepts
to be further
embraced
2 0 1 9 M A R K E T T R E N D S
1 32 4
H A N O I R E T A I L
57. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
HANOI
RESIDENTIAL
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9 V I E T N A M
58. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L M A R K E T
A 1 0 - Y E A R L O O K B A C K
WEST
EAST
SOUT
H
Hanoi residential development directions
-
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
2009 2018
West South East Others
58%
24%
9%
15%
5%
67%
Notes: accumulated supply to date including landed property and condominium
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018
84,000 units
317,500 units
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L
Accumulated Supply, Hanoi Residential
59. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L M A R K E T
A 1 0 - Y E A R L O O K B A C K
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L
Forming the “Skyline” in West of Hanoi And transforming “Ghost Town” projects
60. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L M A R K E T
A 1 0 - Y E A R L O O K B A C K
Going further and bigger with fund raising
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L
61. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L M A R K E T
A 1 0 - Y E A R L O O K B A C K
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L
And better connectivity amid much greater traffic
62. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
2 0 1 8 H I G H L I G H T S
Lower new supply
The rise of residential in suburban locations
Future supply to come from large scale developments
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
Flat Prices
63. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
(*) Selling price: US$ psm (exclusive of VAT & Maintenance fee)
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018.
˄ 10% y-o-y
12% y-o-yv
=0% y-o-y
30,792
31,083
$1,714
New Launch
(Units)
Selling prices (*)
(US$ psm)
HANOI
29,840
19% y-o-yv
$1,304
2% y-o-yv
25,758
11% y-o-yv
HCMC
Sold units
(Units)
2 0 1 8 H I G H L I G H T S – M A R K E T P E R F O R M A N C E
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
64. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
TEXT
2 0 1 8 H A N O I M A R K E T S N A P S H O T
New launch
Selling Prices (*)
Sold units
10 projects
3,890 units
729 US$/sm
▲ 3.2% y-o-y
▼ 21% y-o-y
3,116 units
▼ 55% y-o-y
Affordable
LUXURY: >3,500 US$/sm
HIGH END: 1,500 – 3,500 US$/sm
MID END: 800 – 1,500 US$/sm
AFFORDABLE: <800 US$/sm
Source: CBRE Vietnam Q4 2018.
46 projects
16,133 units
1,123 US$/sm
▲ 1.3% y-o-y
▼ 5% y-o-y
20,615 units
▼ 8% y-o-y
Mid-end
26 projects
5,608 units
1,930 US$/sm
▼ 1.1% y-o-y
▼ 18% y-o-y
6,109 units
▼ 19% y-o-y
High-end
0 project
127 units
3,460 US$/sm
▼ 1.3% y-o-y
▼ 47% y-o-y
0 unit
Luxury
29,840 units launched from 72 projects 19% y-o-y
(*) Selling prices exclude VAT and quote on NSA
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
65. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
T H E R I S E O F R E S I D E N T I A L I N S U B U R B A N L O C A T I O N S
WEST
56%
MIDTOWN
2%
SOUTH
16%
EAST
18%
NORTH
9%
Share of new launch supply in 2018 by location
2017: 9%
2017: 64%
Source: CBRE Vietnam Q4 2018.
Sub-urban includes districts: Gia Lam, Dong Anh, Chuong My, Hoai Duc, Thanh Tri, Dan Phuong, Hung Yen
Increasing share of sub-
urban areas
11% 13% 20%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
2016 2017 2018
%tonewlaunch
Urban Sub-urban
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
66. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
E X P A N D I N G M I D - E N D S E G M E N T
M o r e o p t i o n s a t s i m i l a r p r i c i n g l e v e l s
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
27%
53%
20%
1US$ 1250 - $1,500/sq.m
US$ 1000 - $1,250/sq.m
US$ 800 - $1,000/sq.m
Source: CBRE Vietnam Q4 2018.
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
% of mid-end to new launch (2015 - 2018) 47% 59% 63% 70% Common unit values
from US$70,000 -
$100,000 (*)
(*) Selling price excludes VAT and quotes on NSA
67. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
M A R K E T A B S O R P T I O N :
L o w e r n e w s u p p l y v o l u m e a l l o w s s a l e s t o c a t c h u p
Hanoi launched units versus sold units
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
0
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Launched units
Sold units
0
5
10
15
20
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
%
Lending rage
Average CPI (y-o-y)
Lending rates and Inflation rates (%)
New launch 19%
Sold units 11%
2018 (y-o-y)
68. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M : E N D - U S E R S A M A I N F O C U S
Affordability playing an important role
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
US$persq.m.
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam Q4 2018.
(*) Selling price excludes VAT and quotes on NSA
$1,304
$1,714
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
2015 2016 2017 2018
(US$persq.m.)
Hanoi HCMC
Hanoi primary pricing by segment Hanoi vs HCMC primary pricing
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
Luxury
US$3,460
▼ 1.3% y-o-y
High end
US$1,930
▼ 1.1% y-o-y
Mid end
US$1,123
▲ 1.1% y-o-y
Affordable
US$729
▲ 3.2% y-o-y
69. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
5-star amenities open at
Riverside Garden (*)
P R O D U C T E N H A N C E M E N T S
C o m p e t i t i o n i n t e r m s o f f e a t u r e s a n d a m e n i t i e s
a m o n g n e w p r o j e c t s
Quantity vs Quality Back to basics
(*) Translated from Vietnamese Newspaper. Source: Various websites
Fire Safety system inspection completed at
Thanh Xuan Complex (*)
TNR GoldSeason focuses on educational
amenities for residents’ children (*)
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
From old designs to new product features
Old design with limited exposure to
natural light and outdoor view DuplexDual Key
70. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
71
VinCity Ocean Park, Gia Lam
44,000 units
Park City, Ha Dong
~1,000 units
Gamuda City, Hoang Mai
~5,000 units
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K
G o i n g b i g g e r a n d f u r t h e r f r o m t h e C B D
Ecopark, Hung Yen
~6,000 units
The Manor Central Park, Hoang Mai
~ 6,000 units
71. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K
P r o g r e s s a t p r i m e s i t e s – t h e r e t u r n o f l u x u r y i n 2 0 1 9 ?
CBD
3
2
3
1
1
4
5
6
4
5
Tay Ho
Area
6
Midtown
2
72. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
M A R K E T O U T L O O K
M o r e p r e m i u m o f f e r i n g s e x p e c t e d
H A N O I C O N D O M I N I U M
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
$3,000
$3,500
$4,000
$4,500
$5,000
2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
PrimaryPricing(US$psm)
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Source: CBRE Vietnam Q4 2018.
(*) Selling price (US$ psm) excludes VAT and quotes on NSA
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
2016 2017 2018 2019F 2020F 2021F
Luxury High-end Mid-end Affordable
Primary Pricing ForecastNew launch Forecast
73. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
2 0 1 8 H I G H L I G H T S
New supply reached ~2,600 units
Strong absorption; sold units exceeded new launch
Price gains for villa and townhouse products at emerging
locations
H A N O I L A N D E D P R O P E R T Y
74. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
S U P P LY E X PA N S I O N M O S T LY T O W E S T, B U T G R A D U A L LY
T O W A R D T H E E A S T
H A N O I L A N D E D P R O P E R T Y
Projects launched in 2016
Projects launched in 2017
Projects launched in 2018
2016 2017 2018
75. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
2 0 1 8 L I M I T E D N E W S U P P L Y
S A L E S E X C E E D E D N E W L A U N C H
H A N O I L A N D E D P R O P E R T Y
Source: CBRE Vietnam Q4 2018.
-
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Numberofunits
Launched units Sold units
Ecopark Grand – The Island The Manor Central Park Louis City
2018:
2,606 units launched
2,700 units sold
76. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
U P W A R D T R E N D S I N S E C O N D A R Y P R I C I N G
A T E M E R G I N G L O C A T I O N S
H A N O I L A N D E D P R O P E R T Y
Source: CBRE Vietnam Q4 2018.
Secondary pricing includes VAT and construction cost (US$ psm of land)
Established locations New locations
$0
$1,500
$3,000
$4,500
$6,000
$7,500
$9,000
Tay Ho Thanh
Xuan
Cau
Giay
Nam Tu
Liem
Bac Tu
Liem
Hoang
Mai
Ha
Dong
Hoai
Duc
Dan
Phuong
Long
Bien
Gia Lam Hung
Yen
USD($)psm
Q4/16 Q4/17 Q4/18
77. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
More diverse &
differentiated
product offerings
Vietnam’s first
Metro Line soon to
be up and running
Investors will be
pondering over new
locations, new concepts
2 0 1 9 R E S I D E N T I A L M A R K E T O U T L O O K
2 43
H A N O I R E S I D E N T I A L
Large scale and
mega scale
projects
1
78. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
HANOI
4-5 STAR HOTELS
A S I A P A C I F I C R E A L E S T A T E M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9 V I E T N A M
79. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
2 0 1 8 M A R K E T H I G H L I G H T S
Quiet year with no new 4-5-star supply
Strong growth of tourist arrivals
1
3
2
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
Well-positioned performance
compared to the region
Potential competition from the
sharing economy
4
80. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
HCMCHanoi
keys
US$/room
/night
(%)
Source: STR, CBRE Vietnam.
New Supply
ADR
OCC
5.0% y-o-y
1.5 ppts y-o-y
53
$114.1
0.5% y-o-y=
73.3%
New Supply
ADR
OCC
1.8% y-o-y
3.1 ppts y-o-y
0
$112.6
78.4%
2 0 1 8 M A R K E T S N A P S H O T
0% y-o-y=
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
81. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
T O U R I S M T R E N D F O R V I E T N A M
Source: Vietnam Tourism Administration Office, 2018 Source: Vietnam Tourism Administration Office, 2018
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
2018 2017
23.9%
44.3%
3.6%
15.9%
48.6%
56.4%
7.8%
21.5%
Growth of in-bound arrivals by top originsInternational tourists to Vietnam by origins, 2018
82. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
T O U R I S M T R E N D F O R H A N O I
International Tourist Arrivals to Hanoi by year
Source: VNAT
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
4,525
19.1%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
35%
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
Thousandtouristarrivals
International tourist arrivals growth International Arrivals to Hanoi
in 2018:
4.5 million
(Up 19.1% y-o-y)
83. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Q U I E T Y E A R W I T H N O N E W 4 - 5 - S T A R S U P P L Y
Accumulated Hotel Rooms by year
0
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
No.ofrooms
5-star 4-star
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018
Supply growth in 2018 = 0%
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
84. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
85
90
95
100
105
110
115
120
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
Q1
Q2
Q3
Q4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
OccupancyRate
ADR(US$perroompernight)
ADR Occupancy
S T A B L E S U P P L Y A N D H E A L T H Y D E M A N D
S U P P O R T M A R K E T P E R F O R M A N C E
Hanoi upscale hotel, market performance by quarters
Source: STR, CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018
ADR
Occupancy
79.6%
$107.0
BANGKOK
68.3%
$86.6
KL
2018 Comparison
73.3%78.4%
$112.6
HANOI
$114.1
HCMC
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
85. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
C O M P E T I T I O N F R O M T H E L I K E S O F A I R B N B
Snapshot of AirBnB vs. 4-5 star hotels in major
cities (HN and HCMC)
24,142 active rentalsAirBnB
Hotel
(4-5 star) 17,479 rooms
Occupancy,
HCMC
Occupancy,
Hanoi
ADR, Hanoi ADR, HCMC
77%89%
38 120 47 123
Source: AirDnA, CBRE Vietnam, Dec 2018
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
US$/room/night
86. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
E X P A N S I O N O F M I D - S C A L E H O T E L C H A I N S
F o c u s i n g o n C B D a n d m i d t o w n
Source: CBRE Vietnam, REIC, Q4 2018.
4
187
5
251
1
21
2
2
More Asian brands …
5
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
87. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Source: CBRE Vietnam, REIC, Q4 2018.
To be completed in 2019: 457 keys Some key projects to be completed by 2021F
Novotel Thai Ha
345 keys
Wyndham Garden Hanoi
112 keys
Grand Mercure
250 keys
Hilton & Doubletree by Hilton
620 keys
Kim Lien Site
300 keys
Four Seasons Hanoi
100 keys
San Raffles
100 keys
Westin Hanoi
220 keys
S U P P L Y G R O W T H E S C A L A T E I N 2 0 1 9 – 2 0 2 1
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
88. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
O U T L O O K : C B D A N D M I D T O W N D O M I N A T E S U P P L Y S H A R E
E x p a n s i o n t o t h e n o r t h
CBD
10%
17%
2018
2021F
7%
5%
25%
22%
28%
30%
WEST
SOUTH
EAST
NORTH
MIDTOWN
Hanoi Hotel Supply Breakdown by areas
30%
26%
Source: CBRE Vietnam, Q4 2018, Upscale Hotels
Brand expansion by 2021F
New brand entrance by 2021F
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
89. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
D E M A N D : P O T E N T I A L T O U R I S M A C T I V I T I E S
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
90. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
N E W H O T E L T R E N D S A R O U N D T H E G L O B E
Self-Checkin Counters
Hotel & CWS
For the digital nomads
Social Architecture
More Marketing through
Social Media
Technology Interaction
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
91. V I E T N A M
M A R K E T O U T L O O K 2 0 1 9
Strong inflow of
new supply, after a
quiet period
5-star segment
continues to
outperform due
to limited new
supply
Intensifying
competition from
sharing economy
Affordable
luxury
2 0 1 9 M A R K E T T R E N D S
1 32 4
$
H A N O I 4 - 5 S T A R H O T E L
92. T H A N K Y O U
For more information regarding this presentation please contact:
CBRE Vietnam Co., Ltd. – Research & Consulting
All materials presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is under copyright and proprietary to CBRE. Information contained herein, including
projections, has been obtained from materials and sources believed to be reliable at the date of publication. While we do not doubt its accuracy, we have not
verified it and make no guarantee, warranty or representation about it. Readers are responsible for independently assessing the relevance, accuracy, completeness
and currency of the information of this publication. This report is presented for information purposes only, exclusively for CBRE clients and professionals, and is not to
be used or considered as an offer or the solicitation of an offer to sell or buy or subscribe for securities or other financial instruments. All rights to the material are
reserved and none of the material, nor its content, nor any copy of it, may be altered in any way, transmitted to, copied or distributed to any other party without
prior express written permission of CBRE. Any unauthorised publication or redistribution of CBRE research reports is prohibited. CBRE will not be liable for any loss,
damage, cost or expense incurred or arising by reason of any person using or relying on information in this publication.
T +84 28 3824 6125
F +84 28 3823 8418
Email: research.vietnam@cbre.com