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May,2016
Overview of Airline Industry
- 1 -
Table of Contents
1
2
Outlook of Global Airline Industry
Profitability across regions
4
Trends
6
3 Drivers of Airline Industry
5
Impact of Oil Price movement
- 2 -
1.Global Outlook of the Airline Industry
Source : IATA
1. Favorable Economic
Environment
Uneven Economic growth but its rising Exchange Rate against USD
2. Travel Business remains
Strong and Cargo Remains
Weak
Airline Revenue from Passenger and Cargo (in
Billions)
Strong demand to travel due to fall in prices
3. Airline % Operating
margins have become
normal after a long time
Paying investor a ‘Normal’ return for the first time
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Emerging
economies
Developed
economies
$230
$300
$370
$430
$700
$35 $42 $46 $48 $52
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Revenue from
Tickets and
Ancillaries
Revenues from
Cargo
1700 1700 1800
2200
2400 2500
3000
3200
3500
$680 $640 $600 $575 $580 $500 $510 $480 $380
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Passenger
Departure
(in Mn)
Average
return fair
(in USD)
5%
8% 8% 8%
15%
18%
22%
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Operating revenues for Q3 2015(in %)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Cost of
Capital(WA
CC)
Return on
Capital
(ROIC)
- 3 -
Outlook of the Global Airline Industry
Source : IATA
4. Average Net profit per
Passenger in various
regions
5. Fuel prices have come
down to a large extent
6. Decrease in cost of
travel
- 4 -
North America
Source : IATA
Overall Profitability across region in 2015 was close to $30 Billion ,out of which North America contributed more than half
of its profitability and rest being contributed by Europe and Asia-pacific
$19.40
$19.20
2015 2016
3.7%
4.8%
2015 2016
Profitability (in Billions)1
Growth (in %)2
2. Overall Market Profitability Across regions
Asia-Pacific
$5.8
$6.6
2015 2016
Profitability (in Billions)
1
Growth (in %)2
Europe
Latin America
($300)
$400
2015 2016
5.6%
7.5%
2015 2016
Profitability (in Millions)1
Growth (in %)2
6.0% 8.4%
2015 2016
Africa
($300)
($100)
2015 2016
Profitability (in Millions)
1
Growth (in %)2
0.4%
1.6%
2015 2016
- 5 -
3. Drivers
Source : IATA,Economist
The strengthening industry performance is being driven by a combination of factors
$80
$40
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2010 2016
Lower Oil Prices (in USD/Per barrel Brent)
4.2%
2.5% 2.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2010 2015 2016
Global GDP increase (in%)
0.79
3.80
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
2010 2016
Strong Demand for Passenger travel (in Billion)
Lower oil prices giving airlines profits a boost in various regions
across the globe
Stronger economic performance in some of the key economies like
India , China and other led to increase in demand of airline travel
Passenger Demand across region will increase with a minimal % -
as per IATA 3.8 billion people are expected to travel in 2016
758
710
717
680
700
720
740
760
780
2014 2015 2016E
Passenger Revenues USD (in Billions)
- 6 -
3. Drivers
Source : IATA
4.6%
5.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
5.2%
2015 2016
Increase in Net profit Margin(in %)
an average net profit margin of 5.1% being generated with total net
profits of $36.3 billion.
Unit Cost and price of air transport
Trend in the cost of travel is downwards
Developing economies shows faster growth
Developing economies shows better growth trajectory in
comparison to Developed countries
- 7 -
4. Key Trends
Source : Livemint
Jet -Etihad which has a 24% stake in Jet Airways and together they
are growing by 86%,which is beneficial for both of the carriers
416816
534104
Q3FY2015 Q3FY2016
Growing Strategic Alliance
Growth
28%
South East Asia Low cost carrier has passed the 600 aircraft
mark , resulting in 13% growth
91
64
27
41
103
80
31
48
110
80
48 47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Lion Air Air Asia Wings Air Cebu
Expansion of Low Cost Airlines (2013-16)

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Overview of global airline industry 130516 v0

  • 2. - 1 - Table of Contents 1 2 Outlook of Global Airline Industry Profitability across regions 4 Trends 6 3 Drivers of Airline Industry 5 Impact of Oil Price movement
  • 3. - 2 - 1.Global Outlook of the Airline Industry Source : IATA 1. Favorable Economic Environment Uneven Economic growth but its rising Exchange Rate against USD 2. Travel Business remains Strong and Cargo Remains Weak Airline Revenue from Passenger and Cargo (in Billions) Strong demand to travel due to fall in prices 3. Airline % Operating margins have become normal after a long time Paying investor a ‘Normal’ return for the first time -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Emerging economies Developed economies $230 $300 $370 $430 $700 $35 $42 $46 $48 $52 $0 $200 $400 $600 $800 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 Revenue from Tickets and Ancillaries Revenues from Cargo 1700 1700 1800 2200 2400 2500 3000 3200 3500 $680 $640 $600 $575 $580 $500 $510 $480 $380 0 1000 2000 3000 4000 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Passenger Departure (in Mn) Average return fair (in USD) 5% 8% 8% 8% 15% 18% 22% 27% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% Operating revenues for Q3 2015(in %) 0% 2% 4% 6% 8% 10% 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Cost of Capital(WA CC) Return on Capital (ROIC)
  • 4. - 3 - Outlook of the Global Airline Industry Source : IATA 4. Average Net profit per Passenger in various regions 5. Fuel prices have come down to a large extent 6. Decrease in cost of travel
  • 5. - 4 - North America Source : IATA Overall Profitability across region in 2015 was close to $30 Billion ,out of which North America contributed more than half of its profitability and rest being contributed by Europe and Asia-pacific $19.40 $19.20 2015 2016 3.7% 4.8% 2015 2016 Profitability (in Billions)1 Growth (in %)2 2. Overall Market Profitability Across regions Asia-Pacific $5.8 $6.6 2015 2016 Profitability (in Billions) 1 Growth (in %)2 Europe Latin America ($300) $400 2015 2016 5.6% 7.5% 2015 2016 Profitability (in Millions)1 Growth (in %)2 6.0% 8.4% 2015 2016 Africa ($300) ($100) 2015 2016 Profitability (in Millions) 1 Growth (in %)2 0.4% 1.6% 2015 2016
  • 6. - 5 - 3. Drivers Source : IATA,Economist The strengthening industry performance is being driven by a combination of factors $80 $40 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 2010 2016 Lower Oil Prices (in USD/Per barrel Brent) 4.2% 2.5% 2.7% 0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 2010 2015 2016 Global GDP increase (in%) 0.79 3.80 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 2010 2016 Strong Demand for Passenger travel (in Billion) Lower oil prices giving airlines profits a boost in various regions across the globe Stronger economic performance in some of the key economies like India , China and other led to increase in demand of airline travel Passenger Demand across region will increase with a minimal % - as per IATA 3.8 billion people are expected to travel in 2016 758 710 717 680 700 720 740 760 780 2014 2015 2016E Passenger Revenues USD (in Billions)
  • 7. - 6 - 3. Drivers Source : IATA 4.6% 5.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.6% 4.8% 5.0% 5.2% 2015 2016 Increase in Net profit Margin(in %) an average net profit margin of 5.1% being generated with total net profits of $36.3 billion. Unit Cost and price of air transport Trend in the cost of travel is downwards Developing economies shows faster growth Developing economies shows better growth trajectory in comparison to Developed countries
  • 8. - 7 - 4. Key Trends Source : Livemint Jet -Etihad which has a 24% stake in Jet Airways and together they are growing by 86%,which is beneficial for both of the carriers 416816 534104 Q3FY2015 Q3FY2016 Growing Strategic Alliance Growth 28% South East Asia Low cost carrier has passed the 600 aircraft mark , resulting in 13% growth 91 64 27 41 103 80 31 48 110 80 48 47 0 20 40 60 80 100 120 Lion Air Air Asia Wings Air Cebu Expansion of Low Cost Airlines (2013-16)

Editor's Notes

  1. http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2015-12-10-01.aspx http://www.airlinetrends.com/ https://skift.com/2016/02/02/12-airline-trend-predictions-for-2016-which-are-most-likely-to-succeed/ http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documents/economics/Economic-Performance-of-the-Airline-Industry-end-year-2015-forecast-slides.pdf
  2. http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2015-12-10-01.aspx http://www.airlinetrends.com/ https://skift.com/2016/02/02/12-airline-trend-predictions-for-2016-which-are-most-likely-to-succeed/
  3. http://www.iata.org/pressroom/pr/Pages/2015-12-10-01.aspx
  4. http://www.airportwatch.org.uk/iata-jet-fuel-price-monitor-information/ http://www.economist.com/news/economic-and-financial-indicators/21586611-world-gdp https://www.rita.dot.gov/bts/sites/default/files/rita_archives/bts_press_releases/2011/bts017_11/html/bts017_11.html
  5. http://www.iata.org/whatwedo/Documents/economics/20yearsForecast-GAD2014-Athens-Nov2014-BP.pdf
  6. http://www.livemint.com/Companies/N3Q1iwGNvdp1maHHmrYKBO/Why-Jet-Airways-is-flying-high.htmlhttp://centreforaviation.com/analysis/southeast-asias-low-cost-airline-fleet-expands-by-13-in-2015-as-short-haul-capacity-growth-slows-260689