2. - 1 -
Table of Contents
1
2
Outlook of Global Airline Industry
Profitability across regions
4
Trends
6
3 Drivers of Airline Industry
5
Impact of Oil Price movement
3. - 2 -
1.Global Outlook of the Airline Industry
Source : IATA
1. Favorable Economic
Environment
Uneven Economic growth but its rising Exchange Rate against USD
2. Travel Business remains
Strong and Cargo Remains
Weak
Airline Revenue from Passenger and Cargo (in
Billions)
Strong demand to travel due to fall in prices
3. Airline % Operating
margins have become
normal after a long time
Paying investor a ‘Normal’ return for the first time
-5.0%
0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Emerging
economies
Developed
economies
$230
$300
$370
$430
$700
$35 $42 $46 $48 $52
$0
$200
$400
$600
$800
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
Revenue from
Tickets and
Ancillaries
Revenues from
Cargo
1700 1700 1800
2200
2400 2500
3000
3200
3500
$680 $640 $600 $575 $580 $500 $510 $480 $380
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Passenger
Departure
(in Mn)
Average
return fair
(in USD)
5%
8% 8% 8%
15%
18%
22%
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Operating revenues for Q3 2015(in %)
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Cost of
Capital(WA
CC)
Return on
Capital
(ROIC)
4. - 3 -
Outlook of the Global Airline Industry
Source : IATA
4. Average Net profit per
Passenger in various
regions
5. Fuel prices have come
down to a large extent
6. Decrease in cost of
travel
5. - 4 -
North America
Source : IATA
Overall Profitability across region in 2015 was close to $30 Billion ,out of which North America contributed more than half
of its profitability and rest being contributed by Europe and Asia-pacific
$19.40
$19.20
2015 2016
3.7%
4.8%
2015 2016
Profitability (in Billions)1
Growth (in %)2
2. Overall Market Profitability Across regions
Asia-Pacific
$5.8
$6.6
2015 2016
Profitability (in Billions)
1
Growth (in %)2
Europe
Latin America
($300)
$400
2015 2016
5.6%
7.5%
2015 2016
Profitability (in Millions)1
Growth (in %)2
6.0% 8.4%
2015 2016
Africa
($300)
($100)
2015 2016
Profitability (in Millions)
1
Growth (in %)2
0.4%
1.6%
2015 2016
6. - 5 -
3. Drivers
Source : IATA,Economist
The strengthening industry performance is being driven by a combination of factors
$80
$40
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
2010 2016
Lower Oil Prices (in USD/Per barrel Brent)
4.2%
2.5% 2.7%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
2010 2015 2016
Global GDP increase (in%)
0.79
3.80
0.00
1.00
2.00
3.00
4.00
2010 2016
Strong Demand for Passenger travel (in Billion)
Lower oil prices giving airlines profits a boost in various regions
across the globe
Stronger economic performance in some of the key economies like
India , China and other led to increase in demand of airline travel
Passenger Demand across region will increase with a minimal % -
as per IATA 3.8 billion people are expected to travel in 2016
758
710
717
680
700
720
740
760
780
2014 2015 2016E
Passenger Revenues USD (in Billions)
7. - 6 -
3. Drivers
Source : IATA
4.6%
5.1%
4.2%
4.4%
4.6%
4.8%
5.0%
5.2%
2015 2016
Increase in Net profit Margin(in %)
an average net profit margin of 5.1% being generated with total net
profits of $36.3 billion.
Unit Cost and price of air transport
Trend in the cost of travel is downwards
Developing economies shows faster growth
Developing economies shows better growth trajectory in
comparison to Developed countries
8. - 7 -
4. Key Trends
Source : Livemint
Jet -Etihad which has a 24% stake in Jet Airways and together they
are growing by 86%,which is beneficial for both of the carriers
416816
534104
Q3FY2015 Q3FY2016
Growing Strategic Alliance
Growth
28%
South East Asia Low cost carrier has passed the 600 aircraft
mark , resulting in 13% growth
91
64
27
41
103
80
31
48
110
80
48 47
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Lion Air Air Asia Wings Air Cebu
Expansion of Low Cost Airlines (2013-16)