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Dr. John Rutledge Claremont Graduate University February 14, 2012 Far From Equilibrium Economics:  Network Failure, Credit Crisis, and Optimal Portfolios
Our Fragile Island Economy Capital $200 trillion GDP/Work $15 trillion
Earthā€™s Thin, Fragile Crust
Hayek Neural Networks ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],Lorenz Attractor Lorenz Equations Deterministic Non-periodic flows
Evolutionary Economics ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crises: Cascading Network Failures ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Debt, Deflation Theory of Great Depressions Irving Fisher (1933) ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Fisherā€™s Key Result: Liquidating Debt Defeats Itself ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Portfolio Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crises: Correlations Break Ddown ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Evolutionary Economics and Portfolio Theory ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crisis ā€“ 2 Period Model ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Credit Crisis -  Optimal  Investor 3 period model
Credit Crisis ā€“ Cash-Rich Investor 3 period model
Summary ,[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object],[object Object]
Next Project: Value Investing Intrinsic Value, Intrinsic Risk Tradeoff
Dr. John Rutledge Claremont Graduate University February 14, 2012 Far From Equilibrium Economics:  Network Failure, Credit Crisis, and Optimal Portfolios

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John Rutledge, Claremont Graduate University February 14, 2012

Editor's Notes

  1. Fisher, Josiah Gibbs. (dissertation supervisor, Fisher financed Gibbs Collected Works Samuelson (1998, p. 1376). ā€œPerhaps most relevant of all for the geneses if Foundations , Edwin Bidwell Wilson was at Harvard. Wilson was the great (Josiah) Willard Gibbsā€™s last (and, essentially only) protĆ©gĆ© at Yale . He was a mathematician, a mathematical physicist, a mathematical statistician, a mathematical economist, a polymath who had done first-class work in many fields of the natural and social sciences. I was perhaps his only disciple ā€¦ I was vaccinated early to understand that economics and physics could share the same formal mathematical theorems.ā€ Gibbs products, coined term statistical mechanics (explain laws of thermo using stat properties of ensembles of particles, with Boltzmann, Maxwell), invented vector calculus, Gibbs free energy. 1 st US PHD in engineering from Yale in 1863 Einsteinā€¦ā€greatest mind in American historyā€ (letters to Poincare, Hilbert, Boltzmann, Mach, le Chatalier, van der Waals, Planck