Opening keynote at GSE Nordic conference in Reykjavik 2016.
I have also put the whole presentation on Youtube including all videos. It is located at
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hNgpiKM6kfg
It is recorded not with my own voice and flat Danish pronunciation, but with a synthetic voice. Which might be quite suitable for the subject.
The imbedded videos are reterieved from
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=K-4mp_e5v4A
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=x-vS0WcJyNM
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LSZPNwZex9s
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BlbQsKpq3Ak
Comparing Sidecar-less Service Mesh from Cilium and Istio
A002 200 yearsofit
1. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
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Enterprise Modernization
A002. 200 Years of IT
A Fairy Tale about Usefulness, Limitations,
User Interfaces, Processes, and You
Michael Erichsen,
Xact Consulting A/S,
michael.erichsen@xact.dk
2. • Some of the material in this
session presents products
that are still only in research
or development
• Also some of the material is
way too advanced and
complicated for the speaker
to really understand
• Please just take it as a can
opener for a fairy tale – or a
can of worms
Disclaimer
3. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
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Enterprise Modernization
Once upon a Time…
11. IT of the Past
• Please take a moment to think about
– Usefulness
– Limitations
– User Interfaces
– Processes
– Your role
12. IT of the Past
• Usefulness
– Mathematics
– Administration
• Limitations
– Isolated activities
• User Interfaces
– Heavy handles
– Punched paper tape
– Teletype
– Processes
• Very simple
• Very manual
– Your role
• Mathematician?
• Programmer?
• Typist?
• Operator?
• Hardware technician?
21. The Microprocessor
• Try to imagine a world
without microprocessors
• This is the 4-bit Intel 4004
from 1971
22. Where is IT going now?
• IT can help fight climate
change
• IT can help promote
democracy
• IT can boost economy
• IT can help improve health
care and care for the aging
• IT can make the world a safer
place
23. Where is IT going now?
• IT can lead to much more scrap
and garbage
• IT can turn surveillance and
spying into a 1984 nightmare
• IT can blow economic bubbles
orders of magnitude up
• IT can send millions of people
into unemployment and misery
• IT can make the world a much
less safe place
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Enterprise Modernization
The Climate Challenge and IT
25. The Climate Challenge and IT
• IT can help find sources of
water
• IT can help modernize
agriculture
• IT can help predict draughts
and floods
• IT can help make
manufacturing, traffic and
distribution cleaner and more
efficient
26. The Climate Challenge and IT
• How much power do
companies like Google and
Facebook consume?
• What does it take to produce
and later to get rid of all our
IT equipment?
• Whatever happened to the
paperless office?
27. The Climate Challenge and IT
• Maersk uses analytics to load their ships for reduced
relocation of containers
28. The Climate Challenge and IT
• Maersk uses analytics to load their ships for reduced
relocation of containers
• UPS plans routes with preferences for right turns
29. The Climate Challenge and IT
• Maersk uses analytics to load their ships for reduced
relocation of containers
• UPS plans routes with preferences for right turns
• Traffic flow control
30. The Climate Challenge and IT
• Maersk uses analytics to load their ships for reduced
relocation of containers
• UPS plans routes with preferences for right turns
• Traffic flow control
• Facebook places a data centre in Luleå to reduce cooling effort
and use local hydro power
• Iceland lies perfectly for Europe and the Americas with cold
climate and lots of thermal and hydro energy for data centres
• Consolidate your Linux server farms on z hardware
31. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
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info@xact.dk
www.xact.dk
Enterprise Modernization
The Economy and IT
32. The Economy and IT
• New technologies can boost
the economy
• The data explosion creates
completely new industries
• Better information can help
run companies, institutions
and states better
33. The Economy and IT
• Fast, unregulated financial
flows can destabilize
economies
• Hidden tax evasions threatens
the funding of welfare society
• IT is an important driver in
making this possible
34. Is a Social Media Bubble about to burst?
• “The ability of social media sites
to innovate in the long term,
and to retain and monetize their
subscribers, will be the true test
of whether such valuations are
merited.”
– Simon Harris, PwC
• Facebook and Google earn
fortunes on advertisements, but
– Twitter?
– Instagram?
– Reddit?
– Snapchat?
35. Klaus Schwab: The 4th Industrial Revolution
• “There are three reasons why today’s transformations
represent not merely a prolongation of the Third Industrial
Revolution but rather the arrival of a Fourth and distinct one:
– velocity,
– scope, and
– systems impact
• The speed of current breakthroughs has no historical
precedent.”
– Klaus Schwab is founder and executive chairman of the World
Economic Forum (The Davos Meetings)
36. Klaus Schwab: The 4th Industrial Revolution
• “Technology is… one of the main reasons why incomes have
stagnated, or even decreased, for a majority of the population
in high-income countries:
• The demand for highly skilled workers has increased while
the demand for workers with less education and lower skills
has decreased.
• The result is a job market with a strong demand at the high
and low ends, but a hollowing out of the middle.”
37. What do we see in the Nordic Area?
• IT unemployment is falling
steadily
• A tendency in the mainframe
area to recruit and
“revitalize”
• Large companied setting up
Mainframe Academies to
train young colleagues
• Retired programmers and
technical specialists being
called back to part time jobs
38. What do we see in the Nordic Area?
• IT unemployment is falling
steadily
• A tendency in the mainframe
area to recruit and
“revitalize”
• Large companied setting up
Mainframe Academies to
train young colleagues
• Retired programmers and
technical specialists being
called back to part time jobs
• Off- and nearshoring of
operations jobs
• Developers split between
– Architects, business analysts and
customer facing staff
– Coders and testers
• Systems programmers split
between
– High end: Solution architects,
technology advisors
– Software installers, firefighters
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Enterprise Modernization
“The Sharing Economy”
40. “The Sharing Economy”
• Sharing economy (also known
as shareconomy or
collaborative consumption) is
a hybrid market model (in
between owning and gift
giving) which refers to peer-
to-peer-based sharing of
access to goods and services
(coordinated through
community-based online
services)
41. “The Sharing Economy”
• The Harvard Business Review:
• “Sharing economy" is a misnomer
• The correct word for this activity is
"access economy"
• When “sharing” is market-mediated
— when a company is an
intermediary between consumers
who don’t know each other — it is
no longer sharing at all
• Rather, consumers are paying to
access someone else’s goods or
services
42. “The Sharing Economy”
• Uber and Airbnb
– Fuelled by IT
– Company owners earn billions
• Employees have no labour rights
– Uber is accused of recommending using Macedonia as tax haven for
Danish Uber drivers to hide their income for taxation and unemployment
benefits
– Many European police forces and governments are acting legally against it
now
• People renting out their flats have both nice cultural exchanges and
very bad experiences
– “My flat was used as a brothel”
• In the countryside 200 years ago it was called “day labourers”
43. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
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www.xact.dk
Enterprise Modernization
Healthcare and Caring for the Aged
44. CRISPR
• Clustered regularly-interspaced
short palindromic repeats are
segments of prokaryotic DNA
containing short repetitions of
base sequences
• The CRISPR interference
technique has enormous
potential application, including
altering the germline of
humans, animals and other
organisms, and modifying the
genes of food crops
45. CRISPR
• Ethical concerns have been
expressed about the prospect
of using this nascent
biotechnology for editing the
human germline
– GMO disagreements part of
current US-EU Transatlantic
Trade and Investment
Partnership (TTIP) negotiations
48. Interfacing Robots
• Pascale Fung, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology:
– Machines often fail to understand intention
• They do not get emotion and humour, sarcasm and irony…
– The field of empathetic robotics is still in its “steam engine” days, but
the tools and algorithms that will dramatically improve these
machines are emerging
49. Interfacing Robots
• Pascale Fung, Hong Kong University of Science and Technology:
– Machines often fail to understand intention
• They do not get emotion and humour, sarcasm and irony…
– The field of empathetic robotics is still in its “steam engine” days, but
the tools and algorithms that will dramatically improve these
machines are emerging
• The technical part of understanding spoken languages
– 800 phonemes (units of sound) strung together to form all words of
every language in the world (7000)
– Classifier programs group strings of words and tags into 14 moods
– Analysis compares content with mood to identify irony or sarcasm
50. Interfacing Robots
• Any intelligent machine is, at its core, a software system
consisting of modules, each one a program that performs a
single task
• An intelligent robot could have one module for processing
human speech, one for recognizing objects in images captured
by its video camera, and so on.
– Pascale Fung, Scientific American, 2015
51. Interfacing Robots
• Any intelligent machine is, at its core, a software system consisting
of modules, each one a program that performs a single task
• An intelligent robot could have one module for processing human
speech, one for recognizing objects in images captured by its video
camera, and so on.
• An empathetic robot has a heart, and that heart is a piece of
software called the empathy module
• An empathy module analyses facial cues, acoustic markers in
speech and the content of speech itself to read human emotion
and tell the robot how to respond
– Pascale Fung, Scientific American, 2015
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Enterprise Modernization
Applications and the z Platform
66. Cognitive, Analytics, Big Data, etc.
• Yes, we can do all that on z
– But the real fun begins when we
join our existing systems with all
the new stuff
• Hybrid Applications
– Session S506 in Helsinki 2013:
“Exploitation of Predictive
Analytics on System z” by Wang
Enzhong and Wei Kewei
– Sentiment analysis and
warehousing
– Fraud detection and banking
68. Hybrid Applications require Hybrid Thinking
• User expectations
• Users are used to the fast response times delivered by CICS,
DB2, IMS and MQ
– We must make sure that end to end response times are short and
consistent
– We can help our colleagues in the distributed world
• Users expect fast changes in systems to adapt to the mind
blowing pace of the surrounding world
– We must admit that we have a lot to learn from our colleagues in the
distributed world
69. Hybrid Applications require Hybrid Thinking
• How to collaborate across
platforms, skills, methods,
and favourite languages?
• Possible? Or just a fairy tale?
70. Hybrid Applications require Hybrid Thinking
• New development tools
– TSO and ISPF was good enough
for my grandfather!
71. Hybrid Applications require Hybrid Thinking
• New development tools
– TSO and ISPF was good enough
for my grandfather!
– Let us stick to the proven, old-
fashioned user interfaces!!!
72. Hybrid Applications require Hybrid Thinking
• New development tools
– TSO to RDz
• In my experience faster to use
once you have gotten used to
it
• Easier for new colleagues
• Bridging across platforms
– RD&T
• Release the developers and
testers from rigid service level
agreement driven shackles
• New testing tools
– Automated testing
– Rational Integration Tester
– XaTester
• New deployment tools
– Continuous delivery
– DevOps
– CICS Build Toolkit
– Rational Team Concert
– UrbanCode
73. IT of the Present
• Please take a moment to
think about
– Usefulness
– Limitations
– User Interfaces
– Processes
– Your role
74. IT of the Present
• Please take a moment to
think about
– Usefulness
• Ubiquitous
– Limitations
• Bandwidth
• Security
– User Interfaces
• 3270
• Web
• Mobile
• IoT
– Processes
• Complicated
• Automated
• Across platforms
• Embracing full lifecycle
– Your role
• Developer
• Deployer
• Tool maker
• Interface builder
• Designer
• Solution architect
75. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
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Enterprise Modernization
Privacy
76. Privacy
• Scott McNealy (then Sun
Microsystems CEO):
– "You have no privacy. Get over
it.“
• Larry Ellison (Oracle):
– "The privacy you're concerned
about is largely an illusion."
77. Privacy
• Scott McNealy (then Sun
Microsystems CEO):
– "You have no privacy. Get over it.“
• Larry Ellison (Oracle):
– "The privacy you're concerned
about is largely an illusion."
• Benjamin Franklin:
– "Those who would give up
essential Liberty, to purchase a
little temporary Safety, deserve
neither Liberty nor Safety."
78. Privacy
• Changes in climate and
economy and perceived
threats drive changes in law
enforcement
• IT is the most critical factor in
this area
– Unless somebody decides to
return to real, old fashioned
police work
• Privacy is the first sacrifice on
the altar of perceived security
79. Sociometric Solutions
• Can be integrated with internal
systems to yield insight across
teams, job roles, divisions, and
departments
• Managers can proactively
understand disruptions to their
teams or can be warned of
potential project failures based on
communication gaps
• Senior leadership can understand
the behaviour profiles of high
performing teams and target
training to raise the performance of
all teams
80. Sociometric Solutions
• Can be integrated with internal
systems to yield insight across
teams, job roles, divisions, and
departments
• Managers can proactively
understand disruptions to their
teams or can be warned of
potential project failures based on
communication gaps
• Senior leadership can understand
the behaviour profiles of high
performing teams and target
training to raise the performance of
all teams
81. Sociometric Solutions
• Can be integrated with internal
systems to yield insight across
teams, job roles, divisions, and
departments
• Managers can proactively
understand disruptions to their
teams or can be warned of
potential project failures based on
communication gaps
• Senior leadership can understand
the behaviour profiles of high
performing teams and target
training to raise the performance of
all teams
82. FOR MORE INFORMATION PLEASE CONTACT
Xact Consulting A/S
Arnold Nielsens Boulevard 68A
DK-2650 Hvidovre
+45 7023 0100
info@xact.dk
www.xact.dk
Enterprise Modernization
Data Explosion –
Information Overload
83. Data Explosion – Information Overload
• New possibilities to boost our
knowledge and
insight
Insight
Knowledge
Information
Structured Data
Unstructured Data
Implicit Data
84. Data Explosion – Information Overload
• New possibilities to boost
– Organized crime
– Terrorism
– Manipulation
– Misinformation
– Censorship
– Surveillance
– Control