Demography in europe - a world of inequalities

Grazia.tanta@gmail.com 1/4/2021 1
Demography in Europe - a world of inequalities
(2015-2020)
In 2007, in the Lisbon Treaty, with pomp and circumstance,
territorial and social cohesion was promised within the EU. In
2021, demographic discrepancies remain enormous and
permanent.
Summary
1 - Demography reflects the capitalist drift and its promoters
2 - Demographic trends in the European regions
3 - The enduring demographic inequalities
4 - Permanent internal regional inequalities
+++++ |||||||||| +++++
1 - Demography reflects the capitalist drift and its promoters
Observation of the directions and values of the population evolution of a nation-state or region,
included in one of the first, reveals quite clearly the relationship of population with the territory,
and particularly with its ruling classes and its indigenous capitalists. It is evident that a political class
with a predisposition for corruption and patronage takes the population like a herd to be sheared
on a regular basis, compelling it to remain submissive and undemanding of decent incomes and
dignified living conditions, in order to please multinationals or unqualified and clumsy local
businessmen with a vocation for slavery. In order to attract "foreign investment" and be competitive
in the global arena, the struggle of all against all is in force.
On the other hand, the political class of a richer country, with a shortage of less qualified or worse
paid workers, will use immigrants as a way of containing salaries and rights; and will know how to
keep the threat of expulsion, fear and submission at tolerable levels, managing the anathema
launched by local nationalists, racists and fascists, so as not to provoke an exodus.
In the context of the neoliberal drift, a territory and its population are mere products, more or less
competitive, like coffee machines or bananas; if they are more competitive, birth rates will be
higher, the age profile will be balanced, it will welcome people coming from less competitive areas
of the same nation-state, from countries near or even very far. Migration, especially from distant
places, is not easy for the newcomers, who are confronted with an unknown language, different

habits, low salaries, more difficult and poorly paid work, authoritarianism and animosity from local
chauvinist, racist and fascist groups.
The Lisbon Treaty (2007), with pomp and circumstance, introduced the concept of territorial
cohesion. This means that the respective populations can and are able to take advantage of their
territory's particular characteristics to generate employment and decent wages for their inhabitants;
so that their work effort produces "a more balanced and sustainable development" to use the
patois of the bureaucrats. As it will be quantified later on, the inequalities in the European
framework are profound, in terms of quality of life and income, the desertification of huge areas,
the migrations that accentuate inequalities and generate ethnic animosities and xenophobia that
follow the growth of GDP in some places and entropy and abandonment in others. Covid, beyond
its inherent action, has come across the inability of the political classes to manage the presence of
the virus, more than a year after the outbreak of the crisis; except in the confinements, teleworking,
layoffs, inappropriate use of police forces, etc.
The Treaty also says (Article 176) that the European Regional Development Fund will contribute to
the correction of imbalances; which, fourteen years later, is slow to show results. The result is
xenophobic and fascistic attitudes; stale nationalisms and patriotisms that have been capturing
conservative electorates; and throwing the so-called left-wingers into a past decrepitude, since they
do not know any better.
2 – Demographic developments in European regions
About five years ago, we observed the demographic evolution in Europe, detailing the analysis to
NUT - 2 regions, from 1990 to the period 2010/15. Five years later, we intend to make a similar
analysis for the period 2015/20, comparing it with the previous five-year period and, of course,
observing the changes that have occurred in the meantime. In graphical form, the following maps
show, for the purposes of comparison, the evolution between the periods 2010/2015 and
2015/2020.
The observation of the following two maps, with the demographic variations for the two decades,
shows several compact patches of areas with demographic expansion as well as population
regression.

In 2010/15 there are four large patches with population declines below -1% (red) - one covers most
of the Iberian Peninsula; another covers substantial parts of Germany; a third extends from Poland
to the Gulf of Finland; and a final patch covers the Balkans and Hungary, although it should be
noted that data is not available for several countries, including Greece.
The regions with a population decline between 0 and -1% in 2010/15 are two broad areas; in the
western part of Germany and a territorial band extending from the westernmost part of Poland
southwards to Slovakia, as well as isolated regions in several countries.
In 2015/20, the Iberian area with a population decline of less than 1% is centred on Western Iberia,
thus reducing in relation to the previous five-year period; the German territory with a population
decline of less than -1% is substantially reduced and, on the other hand, the entire Western Italian
territory from the Swiss border to the south, including the islands, shows clear population decline;
in the Balkans the situation is unchanged even though data for almost the entire region is now
available; finally, the population decline previously seen in Poland and the Baltic countries is
spreading through Finland and densifying southwards.
Looking at the regions where population growth was positive but less than 2% in 2010/15 reveals
several territorial concentrations. One is prominent on French territory; another is broadly spread
between the Czech Republic and the Adriatic, including parts of Austria and Northern Italy. There
are also important areas in Southern Italy, Poland, Western parts of the English coast, Scotland and
finally the shores of the Gulf of Bothnia, Swedish and Finnish territories.
Looking at the same level of population development for 2015/20, there is an enlargement in the
área, comprising the north of England and Scotland, the northern regions of Norway and Sweden,
and also in the south-western area of Germany, as well as several smaller areas, mainly in Spain,
northern Italy, Poland or the Czech Republic.
Robust population growth (2-5 per cent) in 2010/15 covers several areas. One is southern and
western France; another stretches from Italy (Lazio) to southern Germany; a third covers the whole
of southern England; and it also covers southern Sweden, Iceland and Belgium.
Taking the same parameter for the 2015/20 period, a vast, homogeneous zone should be
highlighted, starting in Navarre and Catalonia, crossing southern France and reaching southern
Germany and almost all of Austria. Other, smaller areas are observed in England, on the North Sea
coast and on the Norwegian coast; and, in addition to large areas of Turkey.
In the first half decade, the situations of demographic growth above 5% present the largest
territorial areas in southern Norway, in the areas of Stockholm and Helsinki; in the areas of Geneva,
central Switzerland (including Zurich); in Languedoc-Roussillon and Corsica in France; in Lazio,
Luxembourg and in the areas of London and Prague. On the map, the most extensive area of strong
demographic dynamism is in Turkey.
In the 2015/20 approach we have separated cases of population growth between 5 and 10%, from
those where it is more than 10%. The latter cases are very few - Iceland, Luxembourg, Malta, the
Greek islands of the North Aegean sea (near Asia Minor) and some regions of Turkey.

With regard to situations of demographic growth of 5 to 10% over the period, the most extensive
are in southern Scandinavia, Ireland, Corsica, the Balearic Islands and Turkey: in addition to the
most dynamic Swiss regions (Geneva and Zurich), city-centric or urban areas such as Berlin, Leipzig,
Prague, Vienna, Bratislava, Hamburg, Bremen, Budapest, Madrid and Helsinki stand out.
3 - Lasting demographic inequalities
The evolution portrayed in the various five-year periods since 1990 shows (table below) the values
corresponding to the total population of the countries with demographic reduction. Their number
remains relatively constant, with a higher period in 2010/15, resulting from the inclusion of
Germany, Spain and Estonia, which is no longer the case in the most recent five-year period; Italy,
on the other hand, showed a negative indicator in the last period. These situations are easily
revealed in the two maps presented above. The situation in 2015/20 shows, for the first time, a
reduction in the volume of the populations assigned to these countries with decreasing
populations.
We then proceed to distribute the EU countries - and others in the European area - according to
the average figures for population growth (in %) over the two five-year periods:
Decreasing Weak growth <1) Medium growth (1-5) High growth (>5)
2015/
2020
2010/
2015
2015/
2020
2010/
2015
2015/
2020
2010/
2015
2015/
2020
2010/
2015
Lituânia -4.4 -7.0 Monteneg. 0.5 P. Baixos 3.0 2.0 Suíça 5.8
Croácia -4.0 -1.8 Eslováquia 0.7 0.6 Finlândia 2.3 Malta 17.0 6.2
Letónia -4.0 -6.3 Rep. Checa 0.7 Dinamarca 2.9 2.3 Noruega 6.4
Bulgária -3.5 -3.0 Eslovénia 0.8 Itália 2.7 Turquia 7.0 7.1
Roménia -2.7 -2.1 Macedón.N 0.3 0.8 França 1.3 2.8 Luxemb. 11.2 12.1
Sérvia -2.6 -2.6 Finlândia 0.98 Áustria 3.7 2.8 Suécia 6.0
Itália -1.9 UE 0.8 0.7 Irlanda 2.8 Irlanda 6.1
Albânia -1.4 -1.1 Chipre 4.8 3.4 Islândia 10.7
Grécia -1.3 -2.4 Islândia 3.6
Hungria -0.9 -1.6 Bélgica 2.5 3.7
Portugal -0.8 -1.9 GB 2.8 3.8
Countries with decreasing population (EU)*
1995/
1990
2000/
1995
2005/
2000
2010/
2005
2015/
2010
2020/
2015
Nº 9 10 10 9 12 10
Population (1000)
66049 103189 104190 168365 234261 162802
% of total EU 13,7 21,2 21,1 33,5 46,2 31.7
All the períods – Bulgária, Estónia, Croácia, Letónia, Lituânia, Hungria e Roménia
In 5 periods - Polónia, except 1995/90
In 3 períods – Rep. Checa (the first three);
In 2 períods – Eslovénia (first two); Alemanha; Portugal e Grécia (last two)
In one períod – Eslováquia (2005/2000); Espanha (2010/15); Itália (2015/20)
* With a decreasing population in the last two five-year periods (not EU
members) – Sérvia, Albânia; e, Montenegro (2015/20)

Polónia -0.1 -0.05 Liechtenst. 3.7 4.1
Monteneg. -0.04 Suécia 4.4
Estónia -1.4 Estónia 1.1
Alemanha -0.7 Rep. Checa 1.5
Espanha -0.1 Eslovénia 1.6
Espanha 1.9
Alemanha 2.4
Noruega 3.9
Suíça 4.5
Nota: Non-EU country members (letters in italics ) Eurostat
Within the EU, 20 countries do not change the scale of their demographic dynamics, 9 of which
have consolidated population decline, while another 9 show demographic growth in both periods,
which reveals the great and persistent inequalities within the EU. It also reveals that Community
funds are far from generating homogeneity and equality of living conditions, as can also be seen in
the maps herein inserted. In fact, to admit that a homogeneity in living conditions between the
various regions of Europe is a serious and persistent objective is a litany that appears in the
speeches of the political classes and eurocrats, to numb and deceive the people; the reality
portrayed in the maps easily shows that “the king has no clothes”.
The number of situations of demographic decline is almost equal in both periods, with greater
homogeneity in the most recent period where the most serious cases are between -4.4 and -2.6%
of population reduction, much lower than in the most recent five-year period, especially for
Lithuania and Latvia. As mentioned above, for both periods, and as can be seen on the maps, the
cases of greater population decline are located in the Baltic and in the Balkans. In 2010/15,
Germany, Spain and Portugal were the only countries with demographic decline in Western Europe
and, in the following period only Italy and Portugal were in this situation, which certainly dragged
into the last period the wounds generated during the "healing" intervention of the regulatory
institutions (IMF, ECB ...).
Capitalism has not equality, between nation-states or between people, as its brand image; on the
contrary, inequality allows the choice of the cheapest, the most precarious, the most submissive,
because it results in greater margins of capital accumulation and greater competition among those
who depend on their labour to live, even if only poorly. Decades ago, the demand for cheaper
labour was limited to the rural areas of the same country (Portugal in the 1950s, for example); then
it spread to nearby countries (Portuguese, Spanish, Maghreb emigrants to France or Yugoslavs to
Germany in the 1970s);and, more recently, in an intercontinental framework, with Latin Americans
and Africans throughout Europe, Philippins in the Persian Gulf monarchies and, tutti-quanti in the
USA, especially Latin Americans, honoured with an electrified and guarded Wall, which was one of
the great flags raised by Trump. As a rule, homogeneity in the populating of territories does not
exist and is a potential frustration for those who believe in human rationality applied to planning,
territorial cohesion and other beautiful melodies sung by the political classes.

Germany, Estonia and Spain are the only countries that have moved from a population decline in
2010/15 to population growth rates, with Italy in the opposite direction. The following chart shows
five-year changes in population for all countries in Europe, in alphabetical order.
We highlight in the following graph, some situations:
 Some countries show a population growth of more than 5% in 2010/15 - Luxembourg and
Malta - both close to tax havens and both, EU members; and also Norway, or the European
vault (Switzerland). Turkey is a special case at a time of geopolitical assertion among Muslim
countries in its vicinity, after the cessation of hopes of an EU integration. An integration of a
country with the population of Germany, with a Muslim population and, with "competitive"
wages was not well regarded in Europe.
 With a population growth of more than 5% in 2015/20, Luxembourg, Malta and Turkey will
remain, to be joined by Ireland, Iceland and Sweden.
 The most notable cases of population decline in 2015/20 are Lithuania, Latvia, Serbia, Romania,
Croatia, Bulgaria, Greece, Hungary and Portugal, whose situations are broadly unchanged from
the previous five-year period.

The inequalities expressed in the above table for European nation-states can be further detailed by
considering information on the population-dropping regions in each country for various points in
time over the past 25 years. The resulting profile is as follows:
EU regions with falling populations in the five-year period ending in the
year in question
Total de regions 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
Bélgica (11) 1 1 - - - -
Bulgária (6) 6 6 6 6 6 6
Rep Checa (8) nd 6 7 1 3 3
Dinamarca (5) - - - - 1 -
Alemanha (36) 5 11 12 25 25 4
Estónia (1) 1 1 1 1 1 -
Irlanda (2) nd nd - - 1 -
Grécia (4) (a) (13 em 2020) 1 2 9
Espanha (19) (b) 5 5 2 - 11 8
França (22) 2 5 1 1 3 10
Croácia (2) nd nd nd 1 2 2

Itália (19) (c ) 7 11 7 3 2 16
Chipre (1) - - - - - -
Letónia (1) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Lituânia (1) ( 2 em 2020) 1 1 1 1 1 1
Luxemburgo (1) - - - - - -
Hungria (7) ( 8 em 2020) 3 7 7 6 6 6
Malta (1) - - - - - -
Holanda (12) - - 1 1 4 1
Áustria (9) - 3 1 1 1 -
Polónia (16) (17 em 2020) nd 12 10 9 11 8
Portugal (7) nd 2 1 3 6 6
Roménia (8) 7 7 8 7 7 7
Eslovénia (1) 1 1 - - - -
Eslováquia (4) - - 3 2 2 2
Finlândia (5) - 1 1 1 - 2
Suécia (8) - 5 3 3 - -
G Bretanha (35) 6 10 2 - 1 1
Total UE (252) 46 97 75 73 97 93
(a) Data for only 4 of the 13 Greek regions which held around 46% of the total population
4 - Internal regional inequalities
The observation in the previous table for a 25-year period can be complemented with information
on all the regions with high population decline in Europe (2000/2020) and using the designations
of the regions as they are referred to in their countries. We have also made a calculation of
population changes in 2000/2020. (%)
(%) (%)
Bulgária -15,1 Grécia -0,5
Severozapaden -32,7 Attiki -3,4
Severen tsentralen -26,7 Dytiki Makedonia -7,8
Severoiztochen -9,9 Ipeiros -1,3
Yugoiztochen -15,3 Thessalia -3,3
Yugozapaden -2,3 Ipeiros -1,3
Yuzhen tsentralen -16,5 Peloponnisos -2,3
Redução populacional
(país) 2000/2020
1239 mil
(país) 2000/2020
57 mil
Estónia -5.2 Irlanda 31,4
Estónia -5.2 Irlanda 31,4
(país) 2000/2020
72 mil
Aumento populacional
(país) 2000/2020
1187 mil

França 1.3 Letónia -19,9
Centre - Val de Loire -0.5 Letónia -19,9
(país) 2000/2020
6775 mil
(país) 2000/2020
474 mil
Eslováquia 1.1 Rep Checa 4.1
Západné Slovensko -2,8 Severozápad -0,7
Stredné Slovensko -1,4 Strední Morava -0.5
(país) 2000/2020
59 mil
(país) 2000/2020
416 mil
Áustria 11,2 Lituânia -20,4
Áustria 11,2
Vidurio ir vakaru Lietuvos
regionas
-21,6
(país) 2000/2020
899 mil
Redução populacional (país)
2000/2020
718 mil
Alemanha 1.2 Portugal 0,5
Chemnitz (2015/2020) -2.5 Norte -2,1
Sachsen-Anhalt -17.1 Centro -4,8
Thüringen -12.9 Alentejo -9,1
Aumento populacional (país)
2000/2020
1003 mil
(país) 2000/2020
47 mil
Malta 32,4 Chipre 28,6
Malta 32,4 Chipre 28,6
(país) 2000/2020
126 mil
(país) 2000/2020
198 mil
Luxemburgo 44,4 Países Baixos 3,0
Luxemburgo 44,4 Limburg -2,1
(país) 2000/2020
193 mil
(país) 2000/2020
1544 mil
Suécia 16,6 Finlândia 6,9
Mellersta Norrland -1,0 Pohjois-ja Itä-Suomi -2,8
(país) 2000/2020
1466 mil
(país) 2000/2020
354 mil

Eslovénia 5,4 Liechtenstein 19,5
Eslovénia 5,4 Liechtenstein 19,5
(país) 2000/2020
108 mil
(país) 2000/2020
6 mil
Suíça 20,1 Reino Unido 13,4
Suíça 20,1 Reino Unido 13,4
(país) 2000/2020
1442 mil
(país) 2000/2020
7852 mil
Polónia -0,8 Hungria -0,9
Slaskie -6,4 Közép-Dunántúl -5,2
Zachodniopomorskie -1,5 Nyugat-Dunántúl -1,0
Lubuskie -0,7 Dél-Dunántúl -12,5
Dolnoslaskie -1,8 Észak-Magyarország -14,3
Opolskie -12,3 Észak-Alföld -7,8
Kujawsko-Pomorskie -0,9 Dél-Alföld -11,0
Warminsko-Mazurskie -1,8
(país) 2000/2020
452 mil
Lódzkie -1,9
Swietokrzyskie -2,3
Lubelskie -1,8 Albânia -7,0
Podlaskie -1,1 Veri -5,1
Mazowiecki regionalny -1,3 Jug -6,7
2000/2020
305 mil
(país) 2000/2020
213 mil
Itália 4,8
Liguria -4,0 Roménia -13,9
Molise -6,9 Nord-Vest -10,6
Campania -0,1 Centru -12,5
Puglia -2,0 Nord-Est -16,7
Basilicata -8,0 Sud-Est -19,0
Calabria -6,6 Sud - Muntenia -16,4
Sicília -2,4 Sud-Vest Oltenia -20,5
Sardegna -1,6 Vest -13,4
(país) 2000/2020
2718 mil
(país) 2000/2020
452 mil

Sérvia -8,0
Region Vojvodine -1,5 Espanha 17,0
Region Sumadije i Zapadne
Srbije
-2,5 Asturias -4,6
Region Juzne i Istocne Srbije -3,0 Castilla y León -2,9
(país) 2000/2020
601 mil
(país) 2000/2020
6862 mil
Noruega 19,9 Islândia 30,5
Noruega 19,5 Islândia 30,5
(país) 2000/2020
889 mil
(país) 2000/2020
85 mil
Montenegro 3,1 Turquia 24,3
Montenegro 3,1 Agri, Kars, Igdir, Ardahan -1,5
(país) 2000/2020
19 mil
(país) 2000/2020
16266 mil
Macedónia do Norte 2,7 Bélgica 12,5
Macedónia do Norte 2,7 Bélgica 12,5
2000/2020
55 mil
(país) 2000/2020
1283 mil
Croácia -9.8
Jadranska Hrvatska -1.4 Dinamarca 9.2
Kontinentalna Hrvatska -8.0 Dinamarca 9.2
2000/2020
440 mil
2000/2020
493 mil
Note: Redução populacional (país) = Population reduction (country)
Aumento populacional (país) = Population increase (country)
493 mil = 493 thousands
Community funds aim to provide favourable conditions for investors and, to a lesser extent, to
prevent the massive migrations that take place in Europe and which include, as elements that
generate "competitiveness", the acceptance of workers from Africa, Asia or Latin America, with
discriminatory rules, lower incomes, more difficult tasks and always with the threat of expulsion; and
many thousands of those who arrive in Europe every day do so clandestinely and even at the risk of
their lives. The unhumanitarian acceptance of "illegal immigrants" and refugees, humiliated and
persecuted by the repellent agency of capital called Frontex
1
, only serves to accentuate this
1
Frontex is an expanded version of the Portuguese SEF which, following the murder of a Ukrainian immigrant by
members of the institution, has since been dissolved; but whose members will be split between other police forces.

humiliation, obedience, precariousness and low labour costs, since companies established in Europe
are obliged to be competitive, as stated in the missal of capitalism, especially the neoliberal way.
On demographic inequalities in the world, Europe and Portugal, see:
The evolution of wealth in Europe (2000/19)
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2020/08/a-evolucao-da-riqueza-na-europa-200019.html
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2020/08/the-evolution-of-wealth-in-europe-200019_6.html?m=1 english)
Desigualdades na dinâmica demográfica na Península Ibérica (1990/2019)
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2020/07/desigualdades-na-dinamica-demografica.html
Como se consolidam as desigualdades através do tempo
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2020/02/como-se-consolidam-as-desigualdades.html
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2020/04/how-inequalities-are-consolidated-over.html (english)
Comércio internacional – quem ganha e quem perde
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2019/03/comercio-internacional-quem-ganha-e.html
Center and peripheries in Europe (3) - Portugal, an Iberian periphery
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2018/10/centre-and-peripheries-3-portugal.html (english)
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/06/centro-e-periferias-3-portugal-uma.html
Center and peripheries in Europe (2) - Portugal, a case of peripheral disaster
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2018/10/center-and-peripheries-in-europe-2.html (english)
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/06/centro-e-periferias-3-portugal-uma.html
Center and peripheries in Europe - The dynamics of inequalities since 1990
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2018/10/center-and-peripheries-in-europe.html (english)
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/04/centro-e-periferias-na-europa-dinamica.html
Evolution of the world population 1950/2050 - The case of Europe
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/2018/07/evolution-of-world-population-19502050_16.html (english)
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2018/05/evolucao-da-populacao-mundial-19502050.html
Custos do trabalho na Europa – espelho da exploração e das desigualdades
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2017/07/custos-do-trabalho-na-europa-espelho-da.html
Europa, periferias e desastres periféricos
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2017/05/europa-periferias-e-desastres.html
União dos Povos da Europa ou o nacionalismo à solta
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2016/09/uniao-dos-povos-da-europa-ou-o.html
https://grazia-tanta.blogspot.pt/2017/08/union-of-european-peoples-or.html (english)
These and other documents, here:
http://grazia-tanta.blogspot.com/
http://www.slideshare.net/durgarrai/documents
https://pt.scribd.com/uploads

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