Join eMarketer Principal Analyst David Hallerman as he discusses the major developments in US online, mobile and social ad spending, and examines 2012’s key areas of growth and trends to watch.

1. M A R C H 2 2, 2 0 1 2
Digital Ad Trends—
What’s Behind the
Spending Boom
Sponsored by:
David Hallerman
Principal Analyst
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

2. What we’ll look at today…
 Online ad spend: growth factors
 Consolidation: one form of imbalance
 Ad formats: imbalance skews the picture
 Video, video: cross-channel central
 Social: its true place in the scheme of things
 Mobile: opportunity but also imbalance
 Three numbers: 23.3 and 24.1 and 15.2
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

3. Questions about why eMarketer
projects ad spending growth at 23.3%

4. Total digital ad
spending
(what’s creating the growth)

5. Total online
ad spending
makes huge
gains
annually, but
its growth
rate is
slowing
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

6. Eight of 15
researchers
estimate
spending in
2012 at $35
billion or
higher
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

7. One factor:
This year’s
elections will
help online
ad spending
grow by
about the
same rate as
last year
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

8. Key reasons for total market growth
The “more” factors. That is, more…
 Time: consumer time on digital rising rapidly
 Inventory: a result of more visits, sites, time
 Measurable: the need to be accountable
 Video: professional content to support ads
 Mobile: time, usage and expectations
 Brands: entry points increasing
 Dollars: budget focus makes digital central
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

9. Digital’s
rising share
of total
media ad
spending is
finally
starting to
match media
usage time
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

10. About 24%
of media
time is
internet
time, but
multitasking
and
inattention
mean not all
time is a
good time to
advertise
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

11. Consolidation
(the game continues but
players change)

12. Bottom line questions…
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

13. Turn into the
big bucks?
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

14. Or turn out to be just small change?
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

15. Or slip away
like a handful
of water?
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

16. The top ad-selling companies are
shifting places
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

17. Five companies will get more than two-
thirds of digital ad revenues in 2012
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

18. Consolidation
in the online
ad business
is not new,
though—the
rich grow
richer, but
unevenly
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

19. Reality
check:
Forget
growth
rates;
instead see
Google way
on top and
continued
consolidation
overall
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

20. Share of total internet ad revenues
among top 10 ad-selling companies
2002 2004 2006 2008
72% 71% 69% 72%
2009 2010 2011 2012
71% 72% 72% ??%
Source: IAB/PwC, 2002-2011
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

21. The
imbalanced
market can
sometimes
be a little
crazy-making
for many
other
ad-selling
companies
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

22. Ad formats
(several imbalanced arenas)

23. Video ad
spending
will jump
more than
twice as
much as any
other format
or the
overall
market

24. But by dollar
share,
there’s
search—and
then there’s
everything
else
Twitter – #eMwebinar

25. Search market share among top 4 sites
is probably not news

26. However, search growth has become a
two-company competition

27. Is search a model for other forms of
digital advertising?

28. The digital space mixes branding with…

29. …direct response marketing, which
often means…

30. …even a single ad can dissolve the
classic division between the two

31. Display advertising
(a diverse market)

32. Display
dollars in
2015 will
increase by
more than
half from
2012—but
growth rate
will decline
from 24.1%
to 10.8%

33. Video share
up, banner
share down,
sponsorship
a potentially
profitable
niche
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

34. Significant disparity of display revenue
growth at top 5 companies
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

35. However, display spending is less
consolidated than the total market

36. Impressions match money: The not-top-5
get about half of display impressions

37. Weighing the imbalances in digital ad
spending helps focus budget choices

38. Display growth without social and
mobile paints a different picture

39. Three more ways of parsing the current
display market

40. The video focus
(cross-channel possibilities)

41. Even as
online video
advertising
growth rates
slow,
spending
will double in
only two
years
Twitter – #eMwebinar

42. Display’s overall market growth at 24.1%
is due mainly to video’s strength…

43. …where about half or more of marketers
expect to increase spending in 2012

44. Key
indicators:
Comparing
growth vs.
dollars
shows
mobile video
gaining more
but more
money goes
on the
desktop

45. As seen on the web? (Nah!) TV’s power
is still unmatched for many goals
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

46. In a typical week, US consumers watch
video mainly on TV, however…

47. TV forever? Containers may change, but
the content basically remains the same

48. Social and mobile
(beyond the hype)

49. Social sites
will see
greater ad
growth in
2012 than
the overall
market —
43% vs. 23%
(but social is
much more
than just
advertising)
Twitter – #eMwebinar ©2012 eMarketer Inc.

50. More
marketers
plan display
spending
increases on
social media
than, say, on
content
publisher
sites
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

51. Facebook is
the social ad
revenue
leader, but
other social
sites are
slowly
gaining on it
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

52. The social
space is
large and
getting
larger —
does that
mean it’s due
for shakeout?
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

53. Mobile ad
spending
will rise from
$1.45 billion
last year to
$2.61 billion
this year,
driven by
everything
but text
messaging
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

54. About half of mobile spending went to
Google — far more than even Apple
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

55. The mobile
market is
mainly
search, with
a large slice
slice of
banners and
rich media
Twitter – #eMwebinar
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

56. And mobile search is mainly Google
(another huge cluster)
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

57. Mobile display: one more market that’s
concentrated, but a bit less so
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

58. Getting your share of the mobile market
often means playing with the big dogs

59. Conclusions
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

60. Conclusions:
Ad spending growth is uneven, but…
 The 23.3% projection for 2012 is for the overall market.
 But the overall market is imbalanced.
 Some of the imbalanced elements:
 search nearly 50% of whole, and growing at 27%
 video growth at 55%, but makes up only 8% of total
 five companies will get nearly 67% of ad revenues
 social dominated by Facebook, with 70% of category ad dollars
 mobile display dominated by three networks (60%), and mobile
search is nearly all Google (95%)
 Display online, and video in particular, offer more opportunities for
lessening the imbalance than does search, social or mobile.
 But note how display growth (sans social and mobile) at 15.2% more
accurately represents the mainstream online ad market.
©2012 eMarketer Inc.

61. Consumers Reward Brand Transparency
Lack Favorability Towards Impact of Transparency on
OBA Concept Perceptions of Online
Advertising
Like
55%
Do not like
51%
Neutral
I would be inclined to I would be more
do more business inclined to click on an
with ad advertiser or advertisement that
publisher who gives gives me the option to
me the option to opt- opt-out of OBA
out of OBA
BASE: Total Qualified Respondents (n=1004)
Q75 Please indicate the degree to which you agree or disagree with each of the following statements related to online advertising.

62. Addressing Consumer Concerns with DAA-
Compliant Self Regulation
DAA Evolution
The Digital Advertising Self-Regulatory Program Advertising Preferences Icon
Alliance (DAA) For Behavioral Advertising
DAA – AdChoices Program Growth and News
 Substantial growth: 400+ companies comply
 900 billion compliant impressions per month
 All top-15 global advertisers participate, including:
American Express, AT&T, Disney, General Motors, Kraft
Foods, Microsoft and Walmart
 Feb, 2012: The DAA announced that it will immediately
begin work to add support for browser based DNT header
signals. Planning to integrate by end of year.

63. How Does DAA Compliance Work?
Advertising User Experience
1. A simple ad tag 2. If clicked the icon 3. Consumers have option to
inserts the DAA icon launches privacy click to Preference Manager
notice inside the ad and opt out of selected
tracking networks
a

64. Consumer favorability increases 50% with
“Powered By TRUSTe” DAA Compliance
Impact on
Feelings Towards
the Advertiser
BASE: Total Qualified Respondents
Q935/Q950 And, how does having this information available make you feel about the advertiser?

65. About TRUSTe
Leader in Privacy Management Solutions
 14 years of privacy experience
 Robust technology platform
 #1 privacy brand & trustmark
Comprehensive Solution Suite
 All media and devices
 Global coverage
 Self- and full-service options
 Leading Provider to Leading Brands
 Over 5,000 clients
 Leading DAA AdChoices Icon Provider
 Over 100 Billion DAA Compliant Ads Served

66. Q&A Session
Learn more about digital advertising with
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Digital Ad Trends—
What’s Behind the
Over 120 reports are published each year.
Spending Boom
Following are a few of the recent ones
focusing on spending:
 US Digital Ad Spending: Key Trends for 2012
 Local Online Advertising: Digital Trends, Challenges and
Opportunities
David Hallerman  Western Europe Mobile Ad Spending
You will receive an email  Western Europe Digital Advertising: Spending and Trends
tomorrow with a link to
view the deck and
webinar recording.
To learn more: www.emarketer.com/products
Sponsored by: 800-405-0844 or webinars@emarketer.com
TRUSTe
©2012 eMarketer Inc.