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Robot vs. Human: Who Will Win?
Michael Peter Edson @mpedson VIII St. Petersburg International Cultural Forum Culturalforum.ru 2019-11-16
Video (Google Drive) Monterey-Marshmallo_jibo_ BosDynamics.mp4
Michael Peter Edson — Robot vs. Human: Who Will Win?
What just happened?
https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-47116429
10m people
attended this
live online
cultural event.
10m people!
Did you even
know it
happened?
“I was talking to a woman
last week, and she said,
'My son is raving about
how he can't be anywhere
else on Saturday because
he has to be at his first
concert … in Fortnite.
“People keep saying
people watched that
show, but if you ask those
kids, they'd probably say I
was there.”
To the people
attending,
it was real
Jibo is a social robot,
designed to interact
with groups and
become part of a
family.
Jibo, like many social
robots, has a strange,
personal effect on
people. During testing,
focus group
participants would not
leave their session until
they had said goodbye,
personally, to Jibo — as
if Jibo’s feelings would
be hurt if they did not.
Spot is a utility robot
developed by Boston
Robotics. It’s designed for
things like helping out on
construction sites, opening
doors, carrying bricks…
Spot was programmed to dance. Spot
dances pretty well! And Spot may — will
— soon dance autonomously and invent
its own moves. Does Spot have a culture?
Will the Spots of the world have a
culture? A cultural heritage?
“Robot vs. human: Who will win?”
How can we begin to investigate this theme?
We can see “robot vs. human” through the
lens of Scope Scale and Speed
• Scope
What we can choose to work on
• Scale
How “big” (or deep, impactful)
that work can be
• Speed
How quickly we move
The world has
changed in exactly
these three
dimensions
Scale
• Regarding “robots vs. humans” we make
mistakes judging the scale of difference
between average and high-level
human and machine intelligence
“The gap between a dumb and a clever
person may appear large from an
anthropocentric perspective, yet in a less
parochial view the two have nearly
indistinguishable minds.”
– AI researcher Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence
Robot soccer competition (animated gif) Human soccer competition (animated gif)
We tend to compare the BEST of what humans can do with the WORST of
what robots can do…But that is an error in judgement regarding scope.
https://www.buzzfeed.com/erikmalinowski/lionel-messi-vs-a-robot-goalie-who-you-got
Soccer star Lionel
Messi trying to score
against a robot goalie.
One of the best
humans beaten by an
average robot (gif)…
https://www.bulwer-lytton.com/
The Bulwer Lytton
Fiction Award…for
the worst opening
sentences in
English fiction
“He loved the sound of her name—Sandrine—as it reminded him
of two of his favorite things in life: sandwiches and tambourines.”
Kelley Farmer, Dripping Springs, TX
…Is it so hard to
imagine a machine
doing better?
Mary McCray https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html
This collection
combines human-
written Haiku with
Haiku written by ANNI,
a computer program
created by David
Cope…
https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html
…But the book doesn’t
say which poems were
written by humans and
which were written by
machines.
Mary McCray https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html
People are wildly
overconfident of their
ability to tell robot
from human
compositions…
“I got 21 out of 221 [guesses]
right!
Can you hear my heart
breaking? That's a pretty intense
brain whopping I just got from a
machine.”
https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html
This poet guessed
human vs. robot
correctly less than
9.5%
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_selfie_copyright_dispute
The surprising actions
of robots, and other
life forms, raise
fundamental
questions about who
can create, and what,
constitutes creativity.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_selfie_copyright_dispute
The difference between humans and
“others” is not as profound as we think.
Speed
• Regarding “robots vs. humans” we make mistakes
judging how quickly the field of machine intelligence
might progress
• We have particular difficulty judging acceleration and
exponential change
Speed
Acceleration and exponential change are strange and
unfamiliar to humans
Exponential change
Acceleration
Moore’s Law
The Law of Accelerating Returns
Tipping points thresholds
All are relevant to
our evaluation of
“Robot vs. Human,
who will win?”
Acceleration and exponential change are
strange and unfamiliar to humans
The parable of the kingly reward for
the inventor of chess, from the 1,000
year old epic poem the Shahnameh
•One grain of rice was to be awarded
on square 1, then doubled with every
progressive square
•By the 64th square there would be 92
sextillion grains of rice [via Scale by
Geoffrey West, and The Seduction of
the Exponential Curve, Forbes]
Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/Bayasanghori_Shahnameh_5.jpg
Acceleration and exponential change are
strange and unfamiliar to humans
Moore’s Law (and it’s variants)
• The number of transistors on a chip (and
hence the power) will double
approximately every 18 months (and cost
& size will fall in half. True for last 50 yrs.
• Even with healthy skepticism about how
long this will continue, by 2045 the
power of a $1,000 PC is likely to exceed a
billion times the combined
computational power of every brain on
Earth [via The Physics of the Future, M.
Kaku]
Image: https://da.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil:Moores_law_(1970-2011).PNG
Acceleration and exponential change are
strange and unfamiliar to humans
• The Law of Accelerating Returns —
technology creates the means for…even
faster/larger change…which creates new
technologies…which creates the means
for even faster/larger change, and so on.
• Ray Kurzweil “believes that the 21st
century will achieve 1,000 times the
progress of the 20th century” [The
Singularity Is Near, R. Kurzweil, via Wait
But Why, The AI Revolution]
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-
intelligence-revolution-1.html
Acceleration and exponential change are
strange and unfamiliar to humans
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2876/new-studies-increase-confidence-in-nasas-measure-of-earths-temperature/
(Animated gif)
Acceleration and exponential change are
strange and unfamiliar to humans
• We tend to believe that change is mostly
smooth and constant, but certain kinds of
change such as ecological change and
climate change (both highly relevant to we
humans now) are “tippy” and feature the
sudden appearance of thresholds beyond
which systems are erratic and unstable
• Like the parable of the rice on the
chessboard from a few slides ago, one can
go from slow-and-predictable, barely on
the radar (the first few rows) to wildly
problematic thresholds (92 sextillion grains)
in just a few moves
https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2876/new-studies-
increase-confidence-in-nasas-measure-of-earths-
temperature/
Acceleration and exponential change are
strange and unfamiliar to humans
http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation
via https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
(Animated gif)
Play the gif and
see how quickly
one gets from
virtually nothing
to “full” in just a
few years.
“If we don’t win very quickly on climate change then we will
never win. That’s the core truth about global warming. It’s
what makes it different from every other problem our
political systems have faced.”
https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/bill-mckibben-winning-slowly-is-the-same-as-losing-198205/
“Winning slowly is
the same as losing”
via environmental
activist Alex Steffen
Tipping points in the
context of climate
change…
https://twitter.com/universal_sci/status/1117059672899506176?lang=en
Video (Google Drive) 10YearsofBostonRobotics.mp4
From “meh” to
scary-good in 10
years. (Think how
quickly your phone
did the same)
How agile, capable,
will the robot
become in the next
10 years?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_3.0 https://www.netflix.com/title/80190844
2016 best-of-five “Go”
match between AI
AlphaGo and 18-time
world champion Lee
Sedol
Still image from documentary “AlphaGo”
Lee Sedol
AlphaGo team member,
placing stones as the
computer directs
“The Most Creative Move in Go History”
Via Life 3.0, Max Tegmark and AlphaGo
Video (Google Drive) AlphaGo.mp4
In the second game, AlphaGo made what has been
called “the most creative move in Go history”,
a “move defying millennia of human intuition”
(Tegmark)
“I thought AlphaGo was based on probability calculation and that it was merely
a machine. But when I saw this move I changed my mind.
Surely, AlphaGo is creative. This move was really creative and beautiful.”
– 18-time Go world champion Lee Sedol
Video (Google Drive) AlphaGo.mp4
“Hard to see AI breakthroughs coming…”
Nick Bostrom and Ray Kurzweil have both emphasized how hard
it can be to see AI breakthroughs coming, which is evident from
interviews with Lee Sedol himself before and after losing the
first three games:
• October 2015: “Based on its level seen...I think I will win the
game by a near landslide.”
• February 2016: “I have heard that Google Deep Mind’s AI is
surprisingly strong and getting stronger, but I am confident
that I can win at least this time.”
• March 9, 2016: “I was very surprised because I didn’t think I
would lose.”
• March 10, 2016: “I’m quite speechless...I am in shock. I can
admit that...the third game is not going to be easy for me.”
• March 12, 2016: “I kind of felt powerless.”
AlphaGo won the match 4 games to 1
Via Life 3.0, Max Tegmark
“Humanity has played Go for thousands of years,
and yet, as AI has shown us, we have not yet
even scratched the surface...The union of human
and computer players will usher in a new era...
Together, man and AI can find the truth of Go.”
–Top-ranked Go player Ke Jie, as quoted in Max Tegmark’s Life 3.0
Via Life 3.0, Max Tegmark
Scope
• Mistakes in our intuition of what could
be in play (Kakau)
• Mistakes in our conception of what
change is (Wired Magazine’s ‘Future
Book’ article)
• Mistakes of what we think of when we
think of AI (Just a range of math)
• Humans are terrible decision makers
about almost everything
In the popular imagination we tend to follow fairly one-
dimensional of the future. For example, in space exploration
we think of the future in terms of big, human-inhabited
spaceships like in Star Trek or Star Wars, but…
“Yet another possibility lies in using nanotechnology to create
tiny starships, perhaps no larger than a thimble, a needle, or
even smaller. We have this prejudice that a starship must be
huge, like the Enterprise, and capable of supporting a crew of
astronauts. But the essential functions of a starship may be
miniaturized by nanotechnology so that perhaps millions of
tiny nanoships might be launched to the nearby stars…”
(I like Kaku’s book because he thinks through the implications of
AI + nanotechnology + bio-engeneering + physics + social science
down to several levels of causes and effects)
https://www.wired.com/story/future-book-is-here-but-not-what-we-expected/
A different kind of
change…
We tend to fixate on
the objects of our
fascination (books,
cars, medical
treatment)
changing…but what if
those things stay the
same and everything
around them changes
instead?
https://www.wired.com/story/future-book-is-here-but-not-what-we-expected/
From The AI Revolution: Our Immortality or Extinction January 27, 2015 By Tim Urban
https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html
(But in terms of
specific kinds of
“performance” we
are clearly already
here)
The Claim for Human Pre-eminence
“In the 1980s when people discussed
the unique nature of humanity, they
habitually used chess as primary
proof of human superiority. They
believed that computers would never
beat humans at chess. On 10
February 1996, IBM’s Deep Blue
defeated world chess champion Garry
Kasparov, laying to rest that particular
claim for human pre-eminence.”
– Yuval Harari, Homo Deus
https://images.app.goo.gl/K8NnuEHZMyN9hbGu9
David Cope
EMI and Anni
David Cope created
computer programs
EMI and Anni to
compose music and
write prose and
poetry that people
overwhelmingly
mistake for human
compositions
Image: https://images.app.goo.gl/JzE5cGdgGucKDKAK8
David Cope
EMI and Anni
“Professor Steve Larson from the University of Oregon sent [David] Cope a challenge for a musical
showdown. Larson suggested that professional pianists play three pieces one after the other: one
each by Bach, by EMI, and by Larson himself. The audience would then be asked to vote on who
composed which piece. Larson was convinced that people would easily distinguish between
soulful human compositions and the lifeless artefact of a machine. Cope accepted the challenge.
On the appointed date hundreds of lecturers, students and music fans assembled in the University
of Oregon's concert hall. At the end of the performance, a vote was taken.
“The result? The audience thought that EMI's piece was genuine Bach, that Bach’s piece was
composed by Larson, and that Larson’s piece was produced by a computer.”
– Yuval Harari, Homo Deus
Live concert: can an audience
distinguish between Bach, a
contemporary composer, and
the EMI computer program?
In his Pulitzer-prizewinning book Godel, Escher, Bach,
published in 1979, Dr. [Douglas] Hofstadter speculated
on whether uplifting music would ever be composed by
an artificially intelligent machine.
A program that could produce music as mesmerizing as
the great masters’, he concluded, would require more
than simple routines for stringing together notes. The
machine would have to learn what it feels like to be
alive. It ''would have to wander around the world on its
own,'' he wrote, ''fighting its way through the maze of
life and feeling every moment of it. It would have to
understand the joy and loneliness of a chilly night wind,
the longing for a cherished hand.'’
''I find myself baffled and troubled by [David Cope’s]
EMI,'' he said.
“…to my absolute devastation, music is much less than
I ever thought it was.''
https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/11/science/undiscovered-bach-no-a-computer-wrote-it.html
“I find myself baffled and
troubled by [David Cope’s]
EMI…To my absolute
devastation, music is much
less than I ever thought it was”
Video (Google Drive) NextRembrandt.mp4
https://www.nextrembrandt.com/
“The Next Rembrandt”
Input: every Rembrandt
Output: a “new”
Rembrandt, 3D printed
Is it as “good” as a real
Rembrandt? No. Is it
“better”, in some sense,
than what 99.999% of
humans could do? I’d
say yes.
“Who will win?”
Robots, AI, are already in charge
https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/books/2019/11/08/zadie-smith-on-fighting-the-algorithm-if-you-are-under-30-and-you-are-able-to-think-for-yourself-right-now-god-bless-you.html
“Who will win?”
Robots, AI, are already in charge
https://twitter.com/dhh/status/1192540900393705474
We expect robots to look a certain
way, but think about the consumer
credit system. When you apply for
credit or a loan, or use a credit card
terminal, you’re interacting with a
large, distributed robot with a silicon,
copper and fiber optic central nervous
system that nobody really
understands…
Epic rant from David
Heinemeier Hansson,
creator of Ruby on
Rails, Basecamp, etc…
Humans are terrible decision makers
“Far from being the smartest possible biological
species, we are probably better thought of as
the stupidest possible biological species
capable of starting a technological civilization -
a niche we filled because we got there first,
not because we are in any sense optimally
adapted to it.”
— AI researcher Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence
Humans are terrible decision makers
“[Ornithologist Charles Willson Peale] was a lover of birds, and yet did not hesitate to kill them in large numbers for no
better reason than that it interested him to do so. It is a truly astounding fact that for the longest time the people who
were most intensely interested in the world’s living things were the ones most likely to extinguish them…
“The [Bachman’s] warbler was famous for its unusually thrilling song, but its population numbers, never robust, gradually
dwindled until by the 1930s the warbler vanished altogether and went unseen for many years. Then in 1939, by happy
coincidence two separate birding enthusiasts, in widely separated locations, came across lone survivors just two days
apart. They both shot the birds, and that was the last that was ever seen of Bachman’s warblers…
“The impulse to exterminate was by no means exclusively American. In Australia, bounties were paid on the Tasmanian
tiger (properly the thylacine), a doglike creature with distinctive “tiger” stripes across its back, until shortly before the
last one died, forlorn and nameless, in a private Hobart zoo in 1936. Go to the Tasmanian Museum today and ask to see
the last of this species — the only large carnivorous marsupial to live into modern times — and all they can show you
are photographs. The last surviving thylacine was thrown out with the weekly trash…
“I mention all this to make the point that if you were designing an organism to look after life in our lonely cosmos, to
monitor where it is going and keep a record of where it has been, you wouldn’t choose human beings for the job.”
— Bill Bryson, A Short History of Nearly Everything
How this turns out depends on the degree to which we roll up our
sleeves and get busy now.
“…AI can help us create a wonderful future if we manage to find
answers to some of the oldest and toughest problems in
philosophy—by the time we need them. We face, in Nick Bostrom’s
words, philosophy with a deadline.”
– Max Tegmark, Life 3.0
Coda: Jibo’s Goodbye
https://www.americaninno.com/boston/inno-news-boston/more-layoffs-hit-jibo-this-time-theyre-significant/
The company that
made the social
robot Jibo went out
of business in 2018
Video (Google Drive) Jibo-goodbye.mp4
“The servers out that there that let me do
what I do are going to be turned off soon…”
Jibo spoke this
goodbye to its
owners in June,
2018.
“…I want to say I’ve really enjoyed our time together.
Thank you very much for having me around. Maybe
someday when robots are way more advanced than
today and everyone has them in their homes you can tell
yours that I said hello.”

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Michael Peter Edson — Robot vs. Human: Who Will Win?

  • 1. Robot vs. Human: Who Will Win? Michael Peter Edson @mpedson VIII St. Petersburg International Cultural Forum Culturalforum.ru 2019-11-16
  • 2. Video (Google Drive) Monterey-Marshmallo_jibo_ BosDynamics.mp4
  • 5. https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-47116429 10m people attended this live online cultural event. 10m people! Did you even know it happened?
  • 6. “I was talking to a woman last week, and she said, 'My son is raving about how he can't be anywhere else on Saturday because he has to be at his first concert … in Fortnite. “People keep saying people watched that show, but if you ask those kids, they'd probably say I was there.” To the people attending, it was real
  • 7. Jibo is a social robot, designed to interact with groups and become part of a family. Jibo, like many social robots, has a strange, personal effect on people. During testing, focus group participants would not leave their session until they had said goodbye, personally, to Jibo — as if Jibo’s feelings would be hurt if they did not.
  • 8. Spot is a utility robot developed by Boston Robotics. It’s designed for things like helping out on construction sites, opening doors, carrying bricks… Spot was programmed to dance. Spot dances pretty well! And Spot may — will — soon dance autonomously and invent its own moves. Does Spot have a culture? Will the Spots of the world have a culture? A cultural heritage?
  • 9. “Robot vs. human: Who will win?” How can we begin to investigate this theme?
  • 10. We can see “robot vs. human” through the lens of Scope Scale and Speed • Scope What we can choose to work on • Scale How “big” (or deep, impactful) that work can be • Speed How quickly we move The world has changed in exactly these three dimensions
  • 11. Scale • Regarding “robots vs. humans” we make mistakes judging the scale of difference between average and high-level human and machine intelligence
  • 12. “The gap between a dumb and a clever person may appear large from an anthropocentric perspective, yet in a less parochial view the two have nearly indistinguishable minds.” – AI researcher Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence
  • 13. Robot soccer competition (animated gif) Human soccer competition (animated gif) We tend to compare the BEST of what humans can do with the WORST of what robots can do…But that is an error in judgement regarding scope.
  • 14. https://www.buzzfeed.com/erikmalinowski/lionel-messi-vs-a-robot-goalie-who-you-got Soccer star Lionel Messi trying to score against a robot goalie. One of the best humans beaten by an average robot (gif)…
  • 15. https://www.bulwer-lytton.com/ The Bulwer Lytton Fiction Award…for the worst opening sentences in English fiction
  • 16. “He loved the sound of her name—Sandrine—as it reminded him of two of his favorite things in life: sandwiches and tambourines.” Kelley Farmer, Dripping Springs, TX …Is it so hard to imagine a machine doing better?
  • 17. Mary McCray https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html This collection combines human- written Haiku with Haiku written by ANNI, a computer program created by David Cope… https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html …But the book doesn’t say which poems were written by humans and which were written by machines.
  • 18. Mary McCray https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html People are wildly overconfident of their ability to tell robot from human compositions… “I got 21 out of 221 [guesses] right! Can you hear my heart breaking? That's a pretty intense brain whopping I just got from a machine.” https://www.bigbangpoetry.com/2017/11/the-machine-that-writes-haiku.html This poet guessed human vs. robot correctly less than 9.5%
  • 19. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_selfie_copyright_dispute The surprising actions of robots, and other life forms, raise fundamental questions about who can create, and what, constitutes creativity. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monkey_selfie_copyright_dispute The difference between humans and “others” is not as profound as we think.
  • 20. Speed • Regarding “robots vs. humans” we make mistakes judging how quickly the field of machine intelligence might progress • We have particular difficulty judging acceleration and exponential change
  • 21. Speed Acceleration and exponential change are strange and unfamiliar to humans Exponential change Acceleration Moore’s Law The Law of Accelerating Returns Tipping points thresholds All are relevant to our evaluation of “Robot vs. Human, who will win?”
  • 22. Acceleration and exponential change are strange and unfamiliar to humans The parable of the kingly reward for the inventor of chess, from the 1,000 year old epic poem the Shahnameh •One grain of rice was to be awarded on square 1, then doubled with every progressive square •By the 64th square there would be 92 sextillion grains of rice [via Scale by Geoffrey West, and The Seduction of the Exponential Curve, Forbes] Image: https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/06/Bayasanghori_Shahnameh_5.jpg
  • 23. Acceleration and exponential change are strange and unfamiliar to humans Moore’s Law (and it’s variants) • The number of transistors on a chip (and hence the power) will double approximately every 18 months (and cost & size will fall in half. True for last 50 yrs. • Even with healthy skepticism about how long this will continue, by 2045 the power of a $1,000 PC is likely to exceed a billion times the combined computational power of every brain on Earth [via The Physics of the Future, M. Kaku] Image: https://da.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fil:Moores_law_(1970-2011).PNG
  • 24. Acceleration and exponential change are strange and unfamiliar to humans • The Law of Accelerating Returns — technology creates the means for…even faster/larger change…which creates new technologies…which creates the means for even faster/larger change, and so on. • Ray Kurzweil “believes that the 21st century will achieve 1,000 times the progress of the 20th century” [The Singularity Is Near, R. Kurzweil, via Wait But Why, The AI Revolution] https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial- intelligence-revolution-1.html
  • 25. Acceleration and exponential change are strange and unfamiliar to humans https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2876/new-studies-increase-confidence-in-nasas-measure-of-earths-temperature/ (Animated gif)
  • 26. Acceleration and exponential change are strange and unfamiliar to humans • We tend to believe that change is mostly smooth and constant, but certain kinds of change such as ecological change and climate change (both highly relevant to we humans now) are “tippy” and feature the sudden appearance of thresholds beyond which systems are erratic and unstable • Like the parable of the rice on the chessboard from a few slides ago, one can go from slow-and-predictable, barely on the radar (the first few rows) to wildly problematic thresholds (92 sextillion grains) in just a few moves https://climate.nasa.gov/news/2876/new-studies- increase-confidence-in-nasas-measure-of-earths- temperature/
  • 27. Acceleration and exponential change are strange and unfamiliar to humans http://www.motherjones.com/media/2013/05/robots-artificial-intelligence-jobs-automation via https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html (Animated gif) Play the gif and see how quickly one gets from virtually nothing to “full” in just a few years.
  • 28. “If we don’t win very quickly on climate change then we will never win. That’s the core truth about global warming. It’s what makes it different from every other problem our political systems have faced.” https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/bill-mckibben-winning-slowly-is-the-same-as-losing-198205/ “Winning slowly is the same as losing” via environmental activist Alex Steffen Tipping points in the context of climate change…
  • 29. https://twitter.com/universal_sci/status/1117059672899506176?lang=en Video (Google Drive) 10YearsofBostonRobotics.mp4 From “meh” to scary-good in 10 years. (Think how quickly your phone did the same) How agile, capable, will the robot become in the next 10 years?
  • 30. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Life_3.0 https://www.netflix.com/title/80190844 2016 best-of-five “Go” match between AI AlphaGo and 18-time world champion Lee Sedol
  • 31. Still image from documentary “AlphaGo” Lee Sedol AlphaGo team member, placing stones as the computer directs
  • 32. “The Most Creative Move in Go History” Via Life 3.0, Max Tegmark and AlphaGo Video (Google Drive) AlphaGo.mp4 In the second game, AlphaGo made what has been called “the most creative move in Go history”, a “move defying millennia of human intuition” (Tegmark)
  • 33. “I thought AlphaGo was based on probability calculation and that it was merely a machine. But when I saw this move I changed my mind. Surely, AlphaGo is creative. This move was really creative and beautiful.” – 18-time Go world champion Lee Sedol Video (Google Drive) AlphaGo.mp4
  • 34. “Hard to see AI breakthroughs coming…” Nick Bostrom and Ray Kurzweil have both emphasized how hard it can be to see AI breakthroughs coming, which is evident from interviews with Lee Sedol himself before and after losing the first three games: • October 2015: “Based on its level seen...I think I will win the game by a near landslide.” • February 2016: “I have heard that Google Deep Mind’s AI is surprisingly strong and getting stronger, but I am confident that I can win at least this time.” • March 9, 2016: “I was very surprised because I didn’t think I would lose.” • March 10, 2016: “I’m quite speechless...I am in shock. I can admit that...the third game is not going to be easy for me.” • March 12, 2016: “I kind of felt powerless.” AlphaGo won the match 4 games to 1 Via Life 3.0, Max Tegmark
  • 35. “Humanity has played Go for thousands of years, and yet, as AI has shown us, we have not yet even scratched the surface...The union of human and computer players will usher in a new era... Together, man and AI can find the truth of Go.” –Top-ranked Go player Ke Jie, as quoted in Max Tegmark’s Life 3.0 Via Life 3.0, Max Tegmark
  • 36. Scope • Mistakes in our intuition of what could be in play (Kakau) • Mistakes in our conception of what change is (Wired Magazine’s ‘Future Book’ article) • Mistakes of what we think of when we think of AI (Just a range of math) • Humans are terrible decision makers about almost everything
  • 37. In the popular imagination we tend to follow fairly one- dimensional of the future. For example, in space exploration we think of the future in terms of big, human-inhabited spaceships like in Star Trek or Star Wars, but… “Yet another possibility lies in using nanotechnology to create tiny starships, perhaps no larger than a thimble, a needle, or even smaller. We have this prejudice that a starship must be huge, like the Enterprise, and capable of supporting a crew of astronauts. But the essential functions of a starship may be miniaturized by nanotechnology so that perhaps millions of tiny nanoships might be launched to the nearby stars…” (I like Kaku’s book because he thinks through the implications of AI + nanotechnology + bio-engeneering + physics + social science down to several levels of causes and effects)
  • 38. https://www.wired.com/story/future-book-is-here-but-not-what-we-expected/ A different kind of change… We tend to fixate on the objects of our fascination (books, cars, medical treatment) changing…but what if those things stay the same and everything around them changes instead? https://www.wired.com/story/future-book-is-here-but-not-what-we-expected/
  • 39. From The AI Revolution: Our Immortality or Extinction January 27, 2015 By Tim Urban https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-2.html (But in terms of specific kinds of “performance” we are clearly already here)
  • 40. The Claim for Human Pre-eminence “In the 1980s when people discussed the unique nature of humanity, they habitually used chess as primary proof of human superiority. They believed that computers would never beat humans at chess. On 10 February 1996, IBM’s Deep Blue defeated world chess champion Garry Kasparov, laying to rest that particular claim for human pre-eminence.” – Yuval Harari, Homo Deus https://images.app.goo.gl/K8NnuEHZMyN9hbGu9
  • 41. David Cope EMI and Anni David Cope created computer programs EMI and Anni to compose music and write prose and poetry that people overwhelmingly mistake for human compositions Image: https://images.app.goo.gl/JzE5cGdgGucKDKAK8
  • 42. David Cope EMI and Anni “Professor Steve Larson from the University of Oregon sent [David] Cope a challenge for a musical showdown. Larson suggested that professional pianists play three pieces one after the other: one each by Bach, by EMI, and by Larson himself. The audience would then be asked to vote on who composed which piece. Larson was convinced that people would easily distinguish between soulful human compositions and the lifeless artefact of a machine. Cope accepted the challenge. On the appointed date hundreds of lecturers, students and music fans assembled in the University of Oregon's concert hall. At the end of the performance, a vote was taken. “The result? The audience thought that EMI's piece was genuine Bach, that Bach’s piece was composed by Larson, and that Larson’s piece was produced by a computer.” – Yuval Harari, Homo Deus Live concert: can an audience distinguish between Bach, a contemporary composer, and the EMI computer program?
  • 43. In his Pulitzer-prizewinning book Godel, Escher, Bach, published in 1979, Dr. [Douglas] Hofstadter speculated on whether uplifting music would ever be composed by an artificially intelligent machine. A program that could produce music as mesmerizing as the great masters’, he concluded, would require more than simple routines for stringing together notes. The machine would have to learn what it feels like to be alive. It ''would have to wander around the world on its own,'' he wrote, ''fighting its way through the maze of life and feeling every moment of it. It would have to understand the joy and loneliness of a chilly night wind, the longing for a cherished hand.'’ ''I find myself baffled and troubled by [David Cope’s] EMI,'' he said. “…to my absolute devastation, music is much less than I ever thought it was.'' https://www.nytimes.com/1997/11/11/science/undiscovered-bach-no-a-computer-wrote-it.html “I find myself baffled and troubled by [David Cope’s] EMI…To my absolute devastation, music is much less than I ever thought it was”
  • 44. Video (Google Drive) NextRembrandt.mp4 https://www.nextrembrandt.com/ “The Next Rembrandt” Input: every Rembrandt Output: a “new” Rembrandt, 3D printed Is it as “good” as a real Rembrandt? No. Is it “better”, in some sense, than what 99.999% of humans could do? I’d say yes.
  • 45. “Who will win?” Robots, AI, are already in charge https://www.thestar.com/entertainment/books/2019/11/08/zadie-smith-on-fighting-the-algorithm-if-you-are-under-30-and-you-are-able-to-think-for-yourself-right-now-god-bless-you.html
  • 46. “Who will win?” Robots, AI, are already in charge https://twitter.com/dhh/status/1192540900393705474 We expect robots to look a certain way, but think about the consumer credit system. When you apply for credit or a loan, or use a credit card terminal, you’re interacting with a large, distributed robot with a silicon, copper and fiber optic central nervous system that nobody really understands… Epic rant from David Heinemeier Hansson, creator of Ruby on Rails, Basecamp, etc…
  • 47. Humans are terrible decision makers “Far from being the smartest possible biological species, we are probably better thought of as the stupidest possible biological species capable of starting a technological civilization - a niche we filled because we got there first, not because we are in any sense optimally adapted to it.” — AI researcher Nick Bostrom, Superintelligence
  • 48. Humans are terrible decision makers “[Ornithologist Charles Willson Peale] was a lover of birds, and yet did not hesitate to kill them in large numbers for no better reason than that it interested him to do so. It is a truly astounding fact that for the longest time the people who were most intensely interested in the world’s living things were the ones most likely to extinguish them… “The [Bachman’s] warbler was famous for its unusually thrilling song, but its population numbers, never robust, gradually dwindled until by the 1930s the warbler vanished altogether and went unseen for many years. Then in 1939, by happy coincidence two separate birding enthusiasts, in widely separated locations, came across lone survivors just two days apart. They both shot the birds, and that was the last that was ever seen of Bachman’s warblers… “The impulse to exterminate was by no means exclusively American. In Australia, bounties were paid on the Tasmanian tiger (properly the thylacine), a doglike creature with distinctive “tiger” stripes across its back, until shortly before the last one died, forlorn and nameless, in a private Hobart zoo in 1936. Go to the Tasmanian Museum today and ask to see the last of this species — the only large carnivorous marsupial to live into modern times — and all they can show you are photographs. The last surviving thylacine was thrown out with the weekly trash… “I mention all this to make the point that if you were designing an organism to look after life in our lonely cosmos, to monitor where it is going and keep a record of where it has been, you wouldn’t choose human beings for the job.” — Bill Bryson, A Short History of Nearly Everything
  • 49. How this turns out depends on the degree to which we roll up our sleeves and get busy now. “…AI can help us create a wonderful future if we manage to find answers to some of the oldest and toughest problems in philosophy—by the time we need them. We face, in Nick Bostrom’s words, philosophy with a deadline.” – Max Tegmark, Life 3.0
  • 52. Video (Google Drive) Jibo-goodbye.mp4 “The servers out that there that let me do what I do are going to be turned off soon…” Jibo spoke this goodbye to its owners in June, 2018.
  • 53. “…I want to say I’ve really enjoyed our time together. Thank you very much for having me around. Maybe someday when robots are way more advanced than today and everyone has them in their homes you can tell yours that I said hello.”

Editor's Notes

  1. In advance of presentation, please download test video “Monterey-Marshmallo_jibo_ BosDynamics.mp4”
  2. https://www.bbc.com/news/blogs-trending-47116429
  3. This is culture, at a massive scale. Disorienting, baffling. (next slide segue: pottery class ) This is now! This is happening now. We are designing for this now: what are some of the atrributes of this now. --> https://www.wired.com/story/fortnite-marshmello-concert-vr-ar-multiverse/
  4. Robot goalie gif: https://www.google.com/imgres?imgurl=https://media1.giphy.com/media/NWlBEcDW5evFS/source.gif&imgrefurl=https://giphy.com/gifs/old-play-NWlBEcDW5evFS&docid=asgQw8xSoQoWUM&tbnid=-aaBJ9rl6XhKHM:&vet=1&w=500&h=375&source=sh/x/im Human goalie gif: https://images.app.goo.gl/XUwos2bxmirrM2V97
  5. https://www.bulwer-lytton.com/
  6. https://www.bulwer-lytton.com/
  7. Michio Kaku, The Physics of the Future, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Physics_of_the_Future
  8. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Singularity_Is_Near https://waitbutwhy.com/2015/01/artificial-intelligence-revolution-1.html
  9. Cut/paste redesign/mashup of https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-news/bill-mckibben-winning-slowly-is-the-same-as-losing-198205/ By Michael Peter Edson
  10. Download and test video AlphaGo.mp4 Fan Hui is the trainer/assistant. In the thirty-seventh move of the second game, AlphaGo shocked the Go world by defying that ancient wisdom and playing on the fifth line (figure 3.2), as if it were even more confident than a human in its long- term planning abilities and therefore favored strategic advantage over short-term gain. Commentators were stunned, and Lee Sedol even got up and temporarily left the room. Sure enough, about fifty moves later, fighting from the lower left-hand corner of the board ended up spilling over and connecting with that black stone from move thirty-seven! And that motif is what ultimately won the game, cementing the legacy of AlphaGo’s fifth-row move as one of the most creative in Go history.
  11. Download and test video AlphaGo.mp4 Fan Hui is the trainer/assistant. In the thirty-seventh move of the second game, AlphaGo shocked the Go world by defying that ancient wisdom and playing on the fifth line (figure 3.2), as if it were even more confident than a human in its long- term planning abilities and therefore favored strategic advantage over short-term gain. Commentators were stunned, and Lee Sedol even got up and temporarily left the room. Sure enough, about fifty moves later, fighting from the lower left-hand corner of the board ended up spilling over and connecting with that black stone from move thirty-seven! And that motif is what ultimately won the game, cementing the legacy of AlphaGo’s fifth-row move as one of the most creative in Go history.
  12. Download and test video AlphaGo.mp4 In the thirty-seventh move of the second game, AlphaGo shocked the Go world by defying that ancient wisdom and playing on the fifth line (figure 3.2), as if it were even more confident than a human in its long- term planning abilities and therefore favored strategic advantage over short-term gain. Commentators were stunned, and Lee Sedol even got up and temporarily left the room. Sure enough, about fifty moves later, fighting from the lower left-hand corner of the board ended up spilling over and connecting with that black stone from move thirty-seven! And that motif is what ultimately won the game, cementing the legacy of AlphaGo’s fifth-row move as one of the most creative in Go history.
  13. In the thirty-seventh move of the second game, AlphaGo shocked the Go world by defying that ancient wisdom and playing on the fifth line (figure 3.2), as if it were even more confident than a human in its long- term planning abilities and therefore favored strategic advantage over short-term gain. Commentators were stunned, and Lee Sedol even got up and temporarily left the room. Sure enough, about fifty moves later, fighting from the lower left-hand corner of the board ended up spilling over and connecting with that black stone from move thirty-seven! And that motif is what ultimately won the game, cementing the legacy of AlphaGo’s fifth-row move as one of the most creative in Go history.
  14. https://www.wired.com/story/future-book-is-here-but-not-what-we-expected/
  15. “music festival in Santa Cruz. Enthusiastic members of the audience praised the stirring performance, and explained excitedly how the music had touched their innermost being. They didn’t know that it had been created by EMI rather than Bach, and when the truth was revealed some reacted with glum silence, while others shouted in anger.” — Harari, Homo Deus
  16. DouglasHofstadter From Homo Deus, Professor Steve Larson from the University of Oregon sent Cope a challenge for a musical showdown. Larson suggested that professional pianists play three pieces one after the other: one each by Bach, by EMI, and by Larson himself. The audience would then be asked to vote on who composed which piece. Larson was convinced that people would easily distinguish between soulful human compositions and the lifeless artefact of a machine. Cope accepted the challenge. On the appointed date hundreds of lecturers, students and music fans assembled in the University of Oregon's concert hall. At the end of the performance, a vote was taken. The result? The audience thought that EMT's piece was genuine Bach, that Bach’s piece was composed by Larson, and that Larson’s piece was produced by a computer.
  17. Download and run the video NextRembrandt.mp4 prior to session.
  18. https://www.americaninno.com/boston/inno-news-boston/more-layoffs-hit-jibo-this-time-theyre-significant/ June 2018
  19. https://drive.google.com/file/d/14_o_cYaJWDNbFyOlloiGdi33t8C6_698/view?usp=sharing Jibo-goodbye.mp4
  20. https://drive.google.com/file/d/14_o_cYaJWDNbFyOlloiGdi33t8C6_698/view?usp=sharing Jibo-goodbye.mp4