Towards Learner-Centered Lifelong Learning Results of Global Education Futures Forum in Menlo Park, CA, USA, 1-3 April 2015

1. Towards Learner-
Centered Lifelong
Learning
Results
of
Global
Educa0on
Futures
California
1-­‐3
April
2015,
Menlo
Park,
CA,
USA

2. 2
Key
statement
that
led
to
GEF
California
Forum
An0cipated
transi0on
from
‘factory
systems’
to
learner-­‐
centered
communi0es
that
support
‘lifelong
learning
everywhere
all
the
0me’
is
the
biggest
challenge
ever
in
the
history
of
educa0on.
Many
progressive
global
players
already
invest
into
this
transi0on,
including
major
technology
companies,
governments
of
OECD
countries,
venture
capitalists
and
interna0onal
social
movements
Our
ques0on
is:
what
are
the
produc0ve
strategies
of
different
players
that
support
&
enhance
this
scenario?

3. Towards
learner-­‐
centered
lifelong
learning
We
explore
main
changes
in
educa0on
driven
by
technological
innova0ons,
major
social
&
economic
transforma0ons,
changes
in
demand
for
skills,
and
rise
of
personal
&
collec0ve
educa0onal
formats
that
meet
needs
of
learners
in
21st
century
From
‘knowns’
to
‘unknowns’
This
Forum
is
a
collec0ve
explora0on,
a
learning
lab
It
is
not
to
seek
expert
opinion
but
to
co-­‐create
Our
main
outcomes
are:
• Shared
vision
for
the
future
of
global
educa0on,
and
• Projects
of
systemic
innova0on
inspired
by
collec0ve
vision
GEF
California:
Main
Subject
&
Expected
Outcomes
3

4. GEF
California
Forum:
3
days
of
intense
work
Ca.
100
par0cipants
from
15
countries
(over
three
days),
including
representa0ves
of
think-­‐and-­‐do
tanks
in
systemic
educa0onal
innova0on,
policy
advisors
and
visionaries,
and
ca.
40
leaders
of
online
learning
plaorms
&
projects*
Mixed
Russian-­‐American
team
of
facilitators
that
used
innova0ve
methods
of
collec0ve
crea0ve
work
(Rapid
Foresight
methodology)
Forum
conducted
in
collabora0on
with
Global
Technology
Symposium,
a
leading
venture
capital
event
of
the
Silicon
Valley
(over
400
par0cipants
in
2015)
4
‘maps
of
the
future’
and
5
GEF
project
ini0a0ves
*
See
details
in
Appendix
4

5. PART
1:
PRECURSORS
TO
LIFELONG
LEARNER-­‐CENTERED
EDUCATION
5

6. Industrial
society
/
economy
Knowledge
based
economy
Wisdom
based
society
SocieQes
in
transiQon
1. The
main
challenges
and
existen0al
threats
of
modern
civiliza0on
are
endogenous
to
the
society.
The
bobleneck
of
civiliza0onal
development
is
the
ability
of
governing
structures
(including
culture
&
domina0ng
thinking
models)
to
process
the
accelerated
increase
of
social
/
technological
/
environmental
complexity
2. Knowledge
based
economy,
shicing
aben0on
from
mass
manufacturing
of
material
goods
to
mass
produc0on
of
knowledge,
does
not
resolve
the
‘ills’
of
industrial
society,
including
the
imbalance
between
the
society
&
nature.
In
order
to
cope
with
future
challenges,
it
is
necessary
to
transit
to
wisdom
based
society,
where
wisdom
(as
“fundamental
pragma0cs
of
life”
(Baltes,
Staudinger,
2000))
drives
decision-­‐
making
of
individuals
and
collec0ves.
Economies
directly
based
on
the
produc0on,
distribu0on
and
use
of
knowledge
and
informa0on
(OECD,
1996)
Society
based
on
(collec0ve)
wisdom
for
common
good,
alongside
with
new
models
of
produc0on
&
sharing
Economy
and
society
dominated
by
mass-­‐
produc0on
manufacturing
based
on
intensifying
division
of
labor
Source:
GEF
analysis
(based
on
GEF
Advisory
Board
mee0ng,
October
2014)
6

7. ‘New’
educaQon
rises
within
and
outside
tradiQonal
educaQon
system
in
response
to
growing
demand
from
transforming
socieQes
Educa0on
spills
out
of
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
and
leads
to
the
rise
of
‘new’
(network-­‐based)
educa0on
Increasing
complexity
of
socio-­‐technical
systems
(incl.
VUCA*
environments)
redefines
demand
for
new
skills
&
knowledge
Low
flexibility
of
exis0ng
ins0tu0ons
Lack
of
epistemology
required
to
cope
with
21st
century
challenges
Technological
enablers:
• Mobility
&
connec0vity
• Automa0on
(Big
Data
/
AI
/
etc.)
Source:
GEF
analysis
7
*
VUCA
=
vola0lity,
uncertainty,
complexity,
and
ambiguity

8. What
happens
to
skills
&
knowledge
required
in
increasingly
complex
socie0es:
• Lifecycle
of
specific
skill
/
knowledge
shortens,
hence
it
becomes
less
important
than
the
ability
to
learn
/
relearn
/
unlearn
• Knowledge
becomes
situated
and
collec0vely
constructed,
thus
specific
skills
become
less
relevant
than
meta-­‐skills
necessary
to
construct
knowledge,
including
communica0on,
crea0vity,
diversity
of
thinking
styles
etc.
• Abili0es
for
self-­‐guided
ac0on
become
more
important
than
abili0es
to
follow
externally
guided
ac0on
(hence
we
an0cipate
a
genera0on
of
Self
Guided
Learners
that
will
use
tools
of
‘new’
educa0on)
What
happens
to
systems
that
transfer
skills
&
knowledge:
• Shic
from
‘educa0on
as
prepara0on
for
life’
to
‘lifelong
con0nuous
educa0on’
• Shic
from
educa0on
within
a
specific
ins0tu0on
(school
/
university)
to
‘distributed’
educa0on
within
an
ecosystem
What
growth
of
complexity
may
imply
for
systems
that
transfer
skills
&
knowledge
Source:
GEF
analysis
(based
on
GEF
Advisory
Board
mee0ng,
October
2014)
8

9. Rise
of
global
educa0onal
providers:
• (primarily)
Global
online
learning
plaorms
• Global
social
movements
• Global
technological
corpora0ons
• Leading
world
universi0es
Emergence
of
Global
EducaQonal
Ecosystem
Con0nuous
globaliza0on:
• Recogni0on
of
global
risks:
existen0al,
environmental,
economical
&
poli0cal
• Globaliza0on
of
economic,
poli0cal
&
cultural
life
• Emerging
systems
of
supra-­‐
na0onal
governance
• Growing
share
of
global
content
in
media
&
daily
life
Rise
of
global
educa0onal
ecosystem
Gradually
declining
role
of
na0onal
educa0onal
governance
Source:
GEF
analysis
(based
on
GEF
Advisory
Board
mee0ng,
October
2014)
9

10. ‘More
of
the
same’:
increasing
economic
efficiency
/
produc0vity
/
compe00veness
in
21
century
Key
discussions:
educa0on
is
broken
but
could
be
fixed
by
introducing
beber
pedagogies
/
ed
tech
&
new
curriculum
Key
discussions:
new
models
of
educa0on
that
should
complement
exis0ng
ones
(e.g.
urban
learning
communi0es)
‘Rebuilding
urban
civilizaQon’:
focusing
on
life
quality
&
social
impact
(e.g.
Sharing
Economy,
Scharmer’s
Capitalism
4.0,
Florida’s
‘Reinven0ng
Ci0es’
etc.)
Key
discussions:
how
can
educa0on
help
us
reinvent
our
rela0onship
between
ourselves,
with
our
ancestors
/
descendants,
and
with
our
planet
‘CivilizaQonal
transit’:
focusing
on
emerging
social
prac0ces
that
help
us
recognize
ourselves
as
a
truly
planetary
species
(e.g.
Macy’s
Great
Turning,
Eisenstein’s
More
Beau0ful
World
etc.)
10
Design
of
global
educaQon
ecosystem:
levels
of
consideraQon
Source:
GEF
analysis

11. 11
Designing
future
of
global
educaQon
is
seeking
the
pathway
towards
protopia
Present
Seeking
to
implement
game-­‐changing
visions
and
solu0ons
that
are
feasible,
desirable,
and
realizable
in
the
here
and
now
Protopia
Utopia
Dystopia
Idealis0c
(and
ocen
overly
op0mis0c)
futures
seeking
solu0ons
that
ul0mately
end
up
being
unabainable
and
are
inspira0onal
but
frustra0ng
Unimagina0ve
‘con0nued
present’
seeking
merely
to
extend
and
enhance
current
paberns
of
being
and
doing
Myopia
Reac0ve
(and
some0me
fatalis0c)
futures
seeking
only
to
avoid
or
avert
scenarios
considered
dangerous
or
undesirable

12. ‘Three
pillars’
of
global
educaQon
ecosystem
design
Global
educaQonal
ecosystem
‘TechnoopQmism’
Humanism
Thrivability
Employing
full
poten0al
of
ICT
to
transform
educa0onal
prac0ces
Recognizing
the
risk
of
civiliza0onal
hubris
and
bringing
back
love
into
teacher-­‐
student
rela0on
Establishing
new
balance
between
Nature
and
the
humanity
Openness
• open
technology
• open
content
• open
knowledge
Wholeness
• Apollonian
&
Dionysian
• health,
love,
and
“intrinsic
virtue”
Sustainability
• Intra-­‐personal
• Inter-­‐personal
• Inter-­‐species
• Inter-­‐genera0onal
Values
of
the
emerging
21
century
society
Source:
based
on
presenta0ons
of
Toru
Iiyoshi,
Claudio
Naranjo
&
Alexander
Laszlo
during
GEF
CA
mee0ng
12

13. 2015
2020
2030
Key
technological
trends
that
shape
future
of
educaQon`
Connec0vity
&
mobility
Automa0on
/
rise
of
Ar0ficial
Intelligence
Deep
learning:
machines
learning
with
humans
using
brain
models
NeuroWeb
technologies
Brain
nano-­‐
implants
Global
WiFi
Mandatory
neuro-­‐
implan0ng?
Implan0ng
gadgets
Risk
factor
Hard
technologies
Low-­‐cost
robo0cs
Cloud
technologies
rapidly
remove
data
storage
limits
Wide
use
of
Augmented
Reality
technologies
Fully
func0onal
Internet
of
Things
Fully
immersive
virtual
reality
Source:
GEF
CA
session
summary
13

14. Key
social
&
economic
factors
that
shape
future
of
global
educaQon
2015
2020
2030
Rise
of
New
Finance
Cryptocurrencies
for
everyone
Crowdinves0ng
for
social
innova0on
Decline
of
tradi0onal
governments
Source:
GEF
CA
session
summary
Social
entrepreneurship
for
social
change
Transi0on
of
power
towards
Asian
economies
/
BRICS
Growth
of
mul0culturalism
New
transparency
Reputa0on
currencies
Growth
of
South-­‐
South
trade
Planned
archaiza0on:
to
avoid
self-­‐
transforma0on,
governments
try
to
simplify
socie0es
they
govern
From
global
to
glocal:
rising
importance
of
ci0es
&
territories
Ci0es
as
learning
labs
Soc
technology
/
format
Risk
factor
New
lingua
franca
is
IT
based
14

15. PART
2:
KEY
ELEMENTS
OF
GLOBAL
EDUCATION
ECOSYSTEM
15

16. +20
years
Na0onal
content
&
standards
School
/
university
Global
learning
plaorms
City
&
area
educa0onal
ecosystems
that
support
lifelong
learning
City
/
area
(intermediary
level)
DramaQc
shiZ:
from
local-­‐naQonal
to
regional-­‐global
Na0onal
level
(intermediary)
Global
level
(lack
of
authority)
Up
to
2010s
Mid-­‐2030s
Source:
GEF
analysis
16

17. Global
online
learning
plaorms
New
models
of
knowledge
crea0on
(‘post-­‐
science’)
Learning
for
emerging
social
prac0ces
Local
learning
ecosystems
community
learner
global
local
content
form
Main
aspects
of
the
emerging
global
educaQonal
ecosystem
Source:
GEF
analysis
17

18. Global
online
learning
plaorms
New
models
of
knowledge
crea0on
(‘post-­‐
science’)
Learning
for
emerging
social
prac0ces
Local
learning
ecosystems
Theme
1:
Global
learning
pla[orms
(GLPs)
Some
ques0ons
discussed
by
the
group:
• Rela0onship
between
face-­‐to-­‐face,
blended,
and
online
learning?
How
will
new
models
of
learning
change
tradi0onal
schooling
structures
and
the
older
model
of
teacher/student
rela0on?
• How
are
the
internet,
the
social
web,
video
games,
and
other
forms
of
gamifica0on
changing
the
educa0onal
ecosystem
on
a
local
and
world
scale?
• How
can
families,
educators,
policy
makers,
and
school
leaders
use
technology
to
create
learning
opportuni0es
that
are
both
personalized
and
collabora0ve
in
design
and
nature?
• What
does
it
mean
that
English
is
the
lingua
franca
of
the
internet
age?
How
will
it
influence
local
and
global
learning
networks?
Might
English
be
eclipsed
by
other
languages,
including
computer
languages
(e.g.
Python,
Ruby
etc.)?
18

19.
Spreading
of
technology
enabled
‘new’
educa0on
Mapping
future
of
GLPs
2015
2020
2030
Rise
of
digital
pedagogy
Unbundling
/
atomiza0on
of
content
New
educa0on
dominated
by
global
tech
companies
Rise
of
agency
based
online
learning
Declara0on
of
Learner
Rights
Online
learning
dominates
educa0on
Conflict
between
tradi0onal
knowledge
holders
(academy)
&
new
knowledge
networks
Metaplaorm:
interoperable
plaorm
between
GLPs
Crisis
driven
accelerated
learning
plaorms
Cross-­‐community
problem
solving
Personalized
learning
trajectories
for
everyone
Crisis
of
tradi0onal
educa0onal
system
in
industrialized
countries
due
to
cost
inefficiency
Soc
technology
/
format
Policy
/
governance
mechanism
Risk
factor
Online
learning
dominated
by
mobile
plaorms
Schools
with
blended-­‐learning-­‐
friendly
classes
Paradigmal
conflict:
lecturing
vs.
collabora0on
in
GLPs
Robo0c
teachers
Hard
technologies
Uber
Teachers
Source:
GEF
CA
session
19

20. Key
trends
that
shape
the
future
of
GLPs
Spreading
of
technology
enabled
‘new’
educaQon
through
GLPs:
• At
the
moment,
online
learning
is
considered
complimentary
and
experience-­‐enhancing
as
compared
to
face-­‐to-­‐face
learning.
This
idea
con0nues
to
encourage
more
schools
&
universi0es
to
adopt
blended
learning
in
their
curriculum
&
create
blended-­‐learning
friendly
classrooms.
The
most
important
problem
resolved
by
‘new’
educa0on
is
the
increased
value
of
0me
for
learners,
teachers
&
administrators.
• Gradually,
learning
shics
to
mobile
plaorms,
detaching
the
learning
process
from
tradi0onal
venues
like
the
classroom
&
university.
• Increasingly
costly
face-­‐to-­‐face
educa0on
in
industrialized
countries
is
leading
to
vast
inequali0es
among
students
and
among
broader
popula0on
segments.
Such
dispari0es
could
well
polarize
socie0es
and
encourage
more
and
more
people
and
popula0ons
to
shic
to
GLPs.
• Within
15-­‐20
years,
online
learning
(enhanced
by
mobile
connec0vity,
wearable
gadgets
&
augmented
reality
technologies)
may
become
the
dominant
form
of
learning
globally.
Rise
of
agency-­‐based
online
learning:
• Project-­‐based
learning
(PBL)
begins
to
dominate
face-­‐to-­‐face
educa0on,
and
will
gradually
be
adopted
by
GLPs
as
well.
It
will
especially
be
demanded
by
Self-­‐Guided
Learners
(see
Theme
3)
that
prefer
an
ac0ve
exploratory
astude
in
learning
to
passivizing
‘knowledge
consumer’
astude.
• GLPs
can
help
improve
life
on
planetary
scale,
e.g.
incuba0ng
ac0vists
projects
through
project-­‐
based
learning.
GLPs
allow
engaging
in
ethical
behavior
for
massive
groups
without
imposing
doctrinal
restric0ons
• Also,
GLPs
can
be
used
to
help
rapidly
transfer
new
knowledge
&
skills
to
communi0es
/
socie0es
in
distress
in
crisis
situa0ons
(economy
collapse,
war,
natural
hazard,
environmental
disaster,
etc.).
Over
0me,
GLPs
can
become
essen0al
in
connec0ng
communi0es
across
the
world
that
face
similar
problems
(e.g.
poverty,
crime,
hunger,
etc.)
to
help
cross-­‐community
learning
20

21. Key
trends
that
shape
the
future
of
GLPs
(2)
Unbundling
/
atomizaQon
of
content
(subtrend):
• Atomiza0on
allows
learners
to
obtain
content
that
more
precisely
matches
their
interests
&
development
needs.
Also,
atomiza0on
supports
mobile
delivery
of
content
• Atomiza0on
challenges
the
posi0on
of
tradi0onal
‘knowledge
holders’
(i.e.
academia)
leading
to
conflicts.
IP
rights
and
licensing
might
well
be
used
to
protect
the
posi0on
of
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
and
perhaps
further
secure
the
rela0onship
between
tradi0onal
academic
research
ins0tu0ons
and
corpora0ons.
In
this
future
vision,
what
becomes
of
the
users
who
are
ocen
creators
of
content
and
new
forms
and
means
of
knowledge?
• Aggrega0on
of
atomized
content
into
searchable
global
library,
curated
topical
collec0ons
&
collabora0ve
structured
discussions
• Over
0me,
as
more
knowledge
work
migrates
into
distributed
network
knowledge
crea0on
structures
(see
Theme
2),
this
conflict
will
likely
be
resolved
in
favor
of
GLPs.
As
a
result,
knowledge
comes
to
be
created
by
an
ever
more
vast
number
of
people
yet
is
controlled
or
archived
by
dis0nct
agencies,
plaorm
creators,
or
service
providers
(such
as
Google,
Minecrac,
and
Wikipedia).
• In
such
a
global
society,
what
happens
to
the
largely
western
concep0on
of
‘liberal
educa0on’
(educa0on
across
many
fields
of
knowledge
&
explora0on)
in
favor
of
more
focused
career
training?
Are
some
forms
of
knowledge
such
as
memoriza0on
displaced
while
other
forms
of
knowledge
such
as
discernment
become
ascendent?
21

22. Rise
of
digital
pedagogy:
• Digital
pedagogy
(enabled
by
Big
Data
analysis
and
Ar0ficial
Intelligence)
allows
gradual
customiza0on
(later,
personaliza0on)
of
GLP
content
based
on
learner’s
behavioral
paberns
and
life
strategies
(incl.
career,
health,
etc.).
Within
15-­‐20
years,
it
will
allow
delivery
of
personalized
educa0on
to
every
tech-­‐equipped
learner.
Ques0ons
remain
about
how
personaliza0on
could
well
serve
to
drive
learners
towards
select
kinds
of
informa0on
and
conclusions
based
on
human
biases
or
AI
manipula0on,
inten0onal
or
otherwise.
• Global
technology
companies,
as
aggregators
of
personalized
online
behavioral
data,
will
inevitably
play
significant
role
in
future
global
educa0onal
ecosystem.
This
raises
issues
of
priva0za0on,
learner
privacy,
and
social
engineering
on
a
world
scale.
• In
collabora0on
with
global
tech
companies,
a
‘meta-­‐plaorm’
can
be
created
as
a
consor0um
between
GLPs,
which
will
aggregate
standardized
learners’
data
in
order
to
foster
interoperability
of
GLPs
(recognizing
that
any
fixed
plaorm
will
be
a
hindrance
to
evolu0on
of
the
ecosystem).
Interoperability
or
a
standard
meta-­‐plaorm
could
boost
the
personalized
learning
trajectories
of
individuals
and
communi0es
while
suppor0ng
the
development
of
new
online
pedagogies
that
meet
the
needs
of
an
ever
more
diverse
base
of
learners.
• Due
to
the
sensi0ve
nature
of
learning
processes,
the
importance
of
educa0on
for
individual
and
societal
advancement,
learners’
interests
must
be
protected
against
abuse
&
manipula0on
by
commerce
&
governments.
To
guard
against
these
possible
viola0ons,
GLPs
and
global
tech
companies
should
adopt
the
Declara0on
of
Learner
Rights
in
the
nearest
future.
Plaorms
should
build
on
learner’s
interests,
help
make
learning
more
relevant
to
life,
don’t
waste
their
0me
and
give
them
feedback
and
recommenda0ons.
Plaorms
also
should
allow
room
for
disagreement,
diversity
and
open-­‐mindedness.
Key
trends
that
shape
the
future
of
GLPs
(3)
22

23. How
will
the
future
look
for
GLPs
…
in
2020
…
in
2030
• Online
educa0on
forms
con0nue
spreading,
and
more
educa0onal
ins0tu0ons
adopt
blended-­‐learning
friendly
curriculum
&
environments
• GLP
learning
model
gradually
shics
from
one-­‐to-­‐many
(conven0onal
MOOCs)
towards
many-­‐to-­‐many,
and
from
‘consumerist’
towards
‘ac0vist’
model
of
learning;
first
project-­‐based
learning
global
online
plaorms
emerge
• Declara0on
of
Learner
Rights
and
Global
Learning
Meta-­‐plaorm
help
advance
the
development
of
digital
pedagogy
and
design
of
inter-­‐plaorm
learning
trajectories
• Online
or
online-­‐supported
learning
(enhanced
by
AI
and
AR)
dominate
educa0on
• Inexpensive
personalized
learning
available
to
any
tech-­‐equipped
user
• Many-­‐to-­‐many
pedagogy
and
online
project
based
learning
are
increasingly
popular
as
the
genera0on
of
Self
Guided
Learners
comes
into
play
• GLPs
play
important
role
in
coordina0ng
and
enhancing
collec0ve
effort
for
beber
world
23

24. Global
online
learning
plaorms
New
models
of
knowledge
crea0on
(‘post-­‐
science’)
Theme
2:
New
Models
of
Knowledge
CreaQon
Some
ques0ons
discussed
by
the
group:
• Science
in
the
era
of
‘instant
knowing’,
the
role
of
AIs
&
BigData
• Many
types
of
knowledge
and
their
federa0on,
who
creates
&
owns
the
‘worldview’
• New
‘technologies
of
thinking’
• The
trend
toward
over-­‐
simplifica0on
of
knowledge
in
schools
(and
the
loss
of
true
understanding
for
students)
• The
increased
aben0on
to
the
importance
of
empathy
for
sharing
worldviews
and
to
give
depth
to
shared
knowledge
Learning
for
emerging
social
prac0ces
Local
learning
ecosystems
24

25. Mapping
future
of
Knowledge
CreaQon
2015
2020
2030
Rise
of
Ar0ficial
Intelligence
assisted
research
Growing
complexity-­‐simplicity
tension
Re-­‐humaniza0on
of
knowledge
work
Net-­‐centric
digitalized
knowledge
organiza0on
Migra0on
from
academia
to
online
network
KC
communi0es
Empathy
educa0on
to
increase
and
build
networks
of
empathy
Global
knowledge
ecosystem
in
full
use
Natural-­‐social-­‐
technical
system
engineering
AI
takes
over
programming
work
Clarity
of
understanding
as
basic
KW
skill
New
remarkable
evidences
of
human-­‐
caused
destruc0on
of
nature
Mixed
human-­‐machine
research
groups
coordinated
by
AI
Soc
technology
/
format
Policy
/
governance
mechanism
Risk
factor
Hard
technologies
‘CC-­‐world’:
revision
of
legisla0on
governing
digital
IP
‘Cogni0ve
barrier’:
self-­‐
organized
digitalized
knowledge
systems
non-­‐
comprehendable
by
human
mind
New
epistemology:
beyond
subject-­‐
object
division
Integra0on
of
‘worldview’
provided
by
AI
Code
is
a
new
kind
of
text
Open
source
science
Source:
GEF
CA
session
25
Input
that
can
ini0ate
paradgimal
shic

26. Key
trends
shaping
future
of
knowledge
creaQon
Net-­‐centric
knowledge
organizaQon:
• Knowledge
work
gradually
moves
from
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
(limited
by
physical
space,
0me
of
work
and
number
of
par0cipa0ng
individuals)
into
network-­‐like
online
knowledge
crea0on
communi0es.
These
communi0es
start
to
build
new
kind
of
‘knowledge
ecosystem’
(early
prototypes
of
which
are
represented
by
ArXIV,
PLoS
and
Wikipedia)
–
which
will
replace
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
of
knowledge
capturing
within
next
15-­‐20
years
• Another
key
process
in
this
trend
is
that
knowledge
storage
becomes
increasingly
digital
(hence
“[digital]
code
is
a
new
text”).
An
immediate
consequence
is
that
knowledge
work
based
on
interconnected
&
interoperable
digital
models
of
reality
(e.g.
computa0on
models
of
biological
&
social
systems)
will
create
shared
computa0onal
approaches
for
‘applied’
knowledge
(used
to
develop
technologies,
solu0ons
&
recommenda0ons)
and
‘fundamental’
knowledge
(the
way
to
capture
fundamental
rela0ons).
• The
speed
of
‘new’
knowledge
crea0on
model
prolifera0on
will
be
con0ngent
on
how
(obsolete)
ins0tu0ons
of
intellectual
private
property
will
hold.
Wide
adop0on
of
models
such
as
Crea0ve
Commons
will
facilitate
the
transforma0on
of
knowledge
worker
community.
26

27. Key
trends
shaping
future
of
knowledge
creaQon
(2)
Growing
complexity-­‐simplicity
tension:
• Tension
between
increasingly
complex
knowledge
organiza0on
(required
to
help
guide
complex
socie0es)
and
barrier
to
complexity
comprehension
will
be
the
main
problem
of
knowledge
work
in
21st
century,
and
thus
simplifica0on
of
knowledge
becomes
a
great
risk.
It
is
necessary
to
seek
methods
that
help
deal
with
this
issue,
by
being
willing
to
embrace
the
complexity,
and
also
by
developing
new
ways
of
sharing
and
developing
shared
understanding
• Also,
an
increased
complexity
–
including
increasingly
observable
feedback
from
nature
on
human
ac0on
(including
climate
change
effects
and
massive
destruc0on
of
marine
wildlife)
–
will
call
for
more
sophis0cated
modelling
of
feedback
loops,
especially
in
engineering.
An
already-­‐happening
paradigm
shic
from
technical
to
socio-­‐technical
systems
design
will
be
soon
followed
by
the
next
shic,
towards
natural-­‐socio-­‐technical
systems
design
that
monitors
feedback
loops
in
a
highly
integrated,
real-­‐0me
fashion.
• Over
0me,
as
volume
&
complexity
of
available
knowledge
increases,
in
next
10-­‐15
years
AI
will
gradually
take
over
the
role
of
‘integrator’
that
helps
to
summarize
theore0cal
founda0ons
of
a
discipline
or
the
domina0ng
‘worldview’.
Within
the
next
10-­‐15
years
acer
that,
a
foreseeable
risk
is
that
knowledge
organiza0on
will
become
totally
incomprehensible
by
any
individual,
or
even
collec0ve,
human
mind.
• The
need
for
new
ways
of
‘knowing’
will
increase
27

28. Key
trends
shaping
future
of
knowledge
creaQon
(3)
Rise
of
AI
assisted
research:
• Ar0ficial
Intelligence
(AI)
will
play
increasingly
important
role
in
research
work.
AI
will
become
increasingly
self-­‐organized,
taking
over
not
only
data
analysis
but
also
low-­‐level
programming
work.
As
knowledge
representa0on
becomes
increasingly
digital,
‘in
silico’
experimen0ng
will
ocen
complement
other
forms
of
research.
• AI
will
become
a
fully
func0onal
member
of
research
teams,
helping
to
iden0fy
knowledge
‘lacunas’
and
generate
research
hypotheses.
Re-­‐humanizaQon
of
knowledge
work:
• Knowledge
work
has
long
suffered
from
‘factory
style’
knowledge
crea0on
processes
that
alienate
researchers
from
research
interests
&
results.
In
addi0on,
the
dominant
ethics
passivized
studied
‘objects’
(incl.
animals
&
human
beings)
and
detached
them
from
the
researcher.
In
future
knowledge
crea0on
work,
the
driving
force
will
be
researcher’s
passion
about
the
theme
of
study
–
thus
empathy
becomes
a
key
research
skill.
Adop0on
of
empathic
(mutually
transforming)
rela0on
between
‘the
one
who
studies’
and
‘the
one
being
studied’
may
eventually
lead
to
the
rise
of
a
new
epistemology
that
overcomes
the
division
between
the
object
and
the
subject.
28

29. How
will
the
future
look
like
for
Knowledge
CreaQon
Models
• Open
Source
science
becomes
increasingly
popular.
Knowledge
workers
gradually
migrate
from
tradi0onal
knowledge
crea0on
ins0tu0ons
towards
loosely
organized
network
knowledge
crea0on
communi0es.
• AI
starts
playing
increasingly
important
role
in
all
aspects
of
research
process,
from
data
organiza0on
and
model
iden0fica0on
to
experiment
design
and
team
planning.
• Soc
skills
of
knowledge
workers
become
increasingly
important,
including
new
ways
of
working
with
complexity
by
crea0ng
means
of
access
to
deeper
shared
understanding
of
complex
systems,
through
honoring
the
process
and
the
person(s)
• Human
knowledge
work
focuses
on
more
‘humanis0c’
aspects
of
cogni0on
that
involve
crea0vity,
passion,
openness,
and
personal
rela0on.
New
ways
of
‘knowing’
are
on
the
rise
• Global
knowledge
ecosystem
replaces
the
significant
share
of
tradi0onal
organiza0on
of
science.
• Natural-­‐socio-­‐technical
systems
designs
help
monitor
feedback
loops
in
a
highly
integrated,
real-­‐
0me
fashion.
AI
plays
significant
role
in
organiza0on
of
knowledge,
with
risk
of
moving
towards
the
level
beyond
human
comprehension
…
in
2020
…
in
2030
29

30. Global
online
learning
plaorms
New
models
of
knowledge
crea0on
(‘post-­‐
science’)
Learning
for
emerging
social
prac0ces
Theme
3:
Learning
for
Emerging
Social
PracQces
Some
ques0ons
discussed
by
the
group:
• What
new
skills
will
be
demanded
in
the
transforming
21st
century
society,
and
how
should
these
be
taught?
• How
will
competence
based
model
look
in
lifelong
learning?
What
models
will
support
lifelong
personal
development?
• What
will
be
the
organiza0on
of
learning
spaces,
and
the
change
in
role
of
teacher
&
learner?
Local
learning
ecosystems
30

31. Mapping
future
of
learning
for
emerging
social
pracQces
2015
2020
2030
Soc
technology
/
format
Policy
/
governance
mechanism
Whole
person
learning
Growing
demand
for
‘future
skills’
Shic
of
decision-­‐making
to
students:
student
voice+choice
Standard
curriculum
focused
on
existen0al
competencies
Student-­‐led
learning
opportuni0es
Self-­‐guided
learners
genera0on
Shic
from
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
to
learning
communi0es
Unschooling
communi0es
Future
awareness
as
universal
skill
Assessment
models
unable
to
measure
desirable
skills
of
21
century
ci0zens
Wearables
for
personal
development
&
brain
fitness
Project-­‐based
learning
as
‘ini0a0on’
into
self-­‐
guided
learning
Collabora0ve
peer-­‐to-­‐peer
online
learning
&
mentonring
From
subject-­‐
to
topic-­‐based
educa0on
Playifica0on
of
educa0on
Mindfulness
training
as
part
of
standard
curriculum
Skills
for
lifelong
health
Source:
GEF
CA
session
Early
age
entrepreneurship
Policies
that
encourage
self-­‐guided
learning
Schools
of
thinking
methods
Learners’
empowerment
through
shared
stories
of
learning
Prac0ces
of
vulnerability
Empowerment
of
feminine
31
Input
that
can
ini0ate
paradgimal
shic

32. Key
trends
that
shape
the
future
of
learning
for
emerging
social
pracQces
ShiZ
of
decision-­‐making
to
students:
student
voice+choice:
• Recogni0on
of
student
voice
(and
shic
of
decision
making
to
students)
is
one
of
the
main
transforma0onal
challenges
for
the
secondary
&
ter0ary
educa0on,
to
which
many
administrators,
teachers,
and
families
(and
even
some
students
themselves)
resist.
The
gradual
introduc0on
of
student-­‐led
learning
opportuni0es
is,
however,
inevitable
–
since
we
can
become
‘learners
for
life’
only
through
the
regular
prac0ce
of
self-­‐guided
learning
(and
the
skill
of
lifelong
learning
becomes
crucial
to
cope
with
21
century
challenges).
• Project-­‐based
learning
(PBL)
is
among
one
of
the
highly
efficient
tools
to
‘ini0ate’
students
into
self-­‐
guided
learning
(as
it
is
driven
by
student’s
own
interests
and
choices)
–
and
so
it
will
be
increasingly
applied
across
all
levels
of
educa0on.
Policies
that
encourage
self-­‐guided
learning
(including
regula0ons
that
allow
more
flexible
choice
of
educa0onal
providers)
will
be
widely
adopted
in
countries
with
developed
educa0onal
systems.
ShiZ
from
tradiQonal
insQtuQons
to
learning
communiQes:
• Horizontal
/
network-­‐structured
learning
communi0es
start
playing
increasingly
important
role
in
learning,
offering
programs
&
curriculums
more
relevant
to
student
needs.
Part
of
their
role
for
learners
is
to
unschool,
to
remove
nega0ve
‘programming’
created
by
‘industrial
educa0on’.
Learning
communi0es
can
offer
educa0on
centered
around
students’
interests
and
real-­‐world
problems
(i.e.
topic-­‐based
educa0on
instead
of
subject-­‐based).
‘Unstructuring’
of
exis0ng
schools
can
be
part
of
this
process.
• Learning
communi0es
can
be
created
with
a
cause
(e.g.
focused
on
social
ac0vism
or
specific
needs
of
a
local
community),
and
thus
collabora0ve
ac0on
can
guide
the
collec0ve
learning.
While
some
of
this
learning
may
happen
face-­‐to-­‐face,
it
may
also
be
conducted
in
peer-­‐to-­‐peer
online
networks
(also
see
Theme
1).
In
addi0on
to
peer-­‐to-­‐peer
learning,
P2P
mentoring
will
be
an
important
part
of
future
learning
landscape
32

33. Growing
demand
for
future
skills:
•
For
self-­‐guided
learners,
it
will
be
crucial
to
build
personalized
long-­‐term
development
strategies
and
to
obtain
meta-­‐skills
that
will
be
suitable
in
various
professional
and
personal
circumstances.
Among
such
meta-­‐skills
are:
• future
awareness
(the
ability
to
understand
variety
of
future
scenarios
and
create
individual
and
collec0ve
strategies);
• entrepreneurship
(the
ability
to
ini0ate
&
organize
new
projects,
social
&
commercial
ini0a0ves)
that
should
be
taught
from
the
early
age;
• diverse
thinking
methods
for
beber
comprehension
of
complex
problems
(incl.
mathema0cal,
systemic,
ar0s0c,
poe0c
etc.)
• mindfulness,
that
should
also
be
taught
from
early
age
&
become
part
of
the
standard
curriculum
• and,
among
the
most
important,
various
skills
that
help
maintain
lifelong
physical,
mental
&
social
health
(as
well
as
skills
for
maintaining
personal,
family
&
community
health)
• Playifica0on
(as
dis0nguished
from
gamifica0on)
becomes
increasingly
important
in
gesng
skills
of
the
future
as
it
allows
‘living
through’
studied
topics
instead
of
learning
about
them
(story-­‐dwelling,
not
story-­‐telling)
Key
trends
that
shape
the
future
of
learning
for
emerging
social
pracQces
(2)
33

34. Key
trends
that
shape
the
future
of
learning
for
emerging
social
pracQces
(3)
Whole
person
educaQon:
• In
21
century
educa0on,
limited
focus
of
industrial
educa0on
on
the
development
of
cogni0ve
abili0es
and
professional
skills
only
will
be
seen
as
highly
deficient.
Instead,
a
call
is
made
to
develop
‘humane’
abili0es,
including
emo0onal
and
social
intelligence,
crea0vity,
and
skills
that
support
collabora0ve
work.
This
process
will
be
enhanced
by
the
increased
recogni0on
of
irrelevance
of
standardized
learning
achievement
measurement
(including
tests
of
cogni0ve
abili0es),
and
the
need
for
more
‘holis0c’
assessment
metrics
that
embeds
various
aspects
of
human
mental,
physical,
and
emo0onal
development.
• Whole
person
educa0on
should
recognize
quali0es
neglected
in
Western
‘white-­‐male’-­‐
centered
civiliza0on,
including
the
support
to
prac0ce
of
vulnerability
(which
helps
promote
openness
and
sincerity
within
the
society)
and
recogni0on
/
empowerment
of
the
feminine
within
each
of
us
• In
lifelong
educa0on,
a
gradual
shic
of
pedagogical
focus
will
occur
from
skills
to
meta-­‐
skills
(e.g.
thinking
methods,
crea0vity
etc.)
and
from
meta-­‐skills
towards
existen0al
skills
(that
determine
our
long-­‐term
‘strategies
of
living
our
lives’).
Within
15-­‐20
years,
some
of
existen0al
skills
may
become
a
focus
of
standard
curriculum
in
developed
countries.
• Whole
person
educa0on
key
principle
is
3H:
Heart
on,
Hands
on,
and
Head
on!
(Also:
we
might
want
to
add
‘learning
with
the
gut’,
i.e.
an0cipatory/
intui0ve/
sensing
aspects
of
learning
to
this).
34

35. How
will
the
future
look
like
for
learning
for
emerging
social
pracQces
…
in
2020
…
in
2030
• Schools
&
universi0es
increasingly
offer
student-­‐led
learning
opportuni0es
and
encourage
self-­‐guided
learning.
• Collabora0ve
learning
communi0es
(with
a
cause)
provide
robust
alterna0ves
to
conven0onal
educa0on
and
help
in
‘unschooling’
• No0on
of
‘whole
person
learning’
gets
limited
recogni0on
in
educa0on,
and
providers
outside
conven0onal
educa0on
system
increasingly
provide
opportuni0es
for
holis0c
educa0on
–
including
educa0on
technology
companies
that
provide
gadgets
for
personal
development.
• Some
‘future
skills’
enter
into
conven0onal
or
complimentary
educa0on,
including
future
awareness
and
entrepreneurship
for
all
groups
of
learners.
• Self-­‐guided
learning
becomes
a
norm,
not
an
excep0on
• Collabora0ve
learning
communi0es
play
significant
role
in
lifelong
educa0on
–
and
their
‘horizontal’
protocols
enter
into
conven0onal
educa0on
as
a
new
norm
• ‘Holis0c’
paradigm
in
educa0on
is
generally
accepted,
and
existen0al
competences
become
the
focus
of
curriculum
for
life-­‐
long
learners
• Meta-­‐skills
such
as
mindfulness
and
healthy
lifelong
living
become
part
of
the
standard
curriculum
in
developed
countries
35

36. ShiZ
from
competences
to
existenQal
competences
Context
/
domain-­‐
specific
competences
Professional
knowledge
&
skills
(e.g.
anatomy
&
surgery
techniques
for
a
surgeon)
General
competences
Meta-­‐competences
Generally
shared
skills
&
knowledge
that
create
basis
for
collec0ve
work
and
division
of
labor,
e.g.
skill
of
reading,
wri0ng,
calcula0on
etc.
Thinking
models
&
technologies
Crea0vity
&
esthe0c
capabili0es
etc.
Existen0al
competences
‘The
ul0mate
answer
to
‘why
we
do
what
we
do’
(i.e.
system
of
priori0es)
Our
ability
to
connect
with
ourselves
and
others
on
existen0al
level
(i.e.
ability
to
experience
joy
and
love)
Ability
to
stay
healthy
relevance
increases
over
life
0mespan
Type
of
competence
Examples
of
competence
Average
lifeQme
Months
to
few
years
Years
to
decades
Decades
to
life0me
In
move
towards
lifelong
learning,
educa0onal
systems
should
take
into
considera0on
not
only
competences
but
meta-­‐competences
and
existen0al
competences
–
fundamental
not
only
to
our
professional
and
social
success
but
to
quality
of
our
life.
Source:
GEF
analysis
36

37. Problems
in
the
exisQng
set
up
of
educaQonal
systems
that
can
block
or
threaten
emergence
of
new
learning
ecosystems
• Over-­‐exploited
teachers
(demanding
to
much
from
teachers
that
are
poorly
trained
for
current
workload
and
are
paid
lible)
• Conveyer
belt
teaching
(teaching
teachers
'quickly
and
crudely',
believing
teachers
are
just
another
type
of
service-­‐providers
and
don't
need
special
socio-­‐emo0onal
prepara0on
to
start
performing
their
ac0vity)
• ‘Young
cheap
teachers’
(as
more
and
more
mature
teachers
find
it
hard
to
support
themselves
and
their
families
given
their
small
salary,
we
see
more
and
more
young
incompetent
teachers
(most
commonly
poorly
trained
according
to
old
expecta0ons)
taking
over
the
places)
• Too
many
non
teaching
teachers
in
the
system
(a
lot
of
administrators
and
educa0onal
leaders
have
never
had
teaching
experience)
• Resistance
to
spiritual
educa0on
(on
behalf
of
secular
community/government
that
confuse
religious
and
spiritual
educa0on)
• Wri0ng
off
affec0ve
experience
(eg.
lack
of
recogni0on
of
the
affects
of
trauma)
• Stakeholders
invest
in
technology
but
not
in
teaching
teachers
or
how
to
use
it
well
(with
the
growing
EdTech
market
we
are
all
facing
immense
investments
into
technology
and
very
lible
investment
into
alive
teachers,
who
are
s0ll
the
main
'source'
of
knowledge.
37

38. Global
online
learning
plaorms
New
models
of
knowledge
crea0on
(‘post-­‐
science’)
Emerging
social
prac0ces
Local
learning
ecosystems
Theme
4:
Local
learning
ecosystems:
resilient
ciQes
&
communiQes
Some
ques0ons
discussed
by
the
group:
• Educa0on
for
‘family
lifecycle’
• Educa0on
for
personal
&
collec0ve
health
/
wellness
/
well-­‐
being
• Urban
resilience
through
‘communi0es
with
a
cause’
• Transforma0on
of
public
spaces
&
role
in
learning
Learning
for
emerging
social
prac0ces
38

39. Mapping
future
of
local
learning
ecosystems
2015
2020
2030
Source:
GEF
CA
session
Concentrated
urbaniza0on:
growing
megaci0es,
shrinking
small
ci0es
BigData
helps
organize
city
processes
Growth
of
self-­‐organizing
communi0es
through
‘third-­‐space’
Starbucks
Agora
Spontaneous
&
collabora0ve
public
art
encourages
interac0on
between
strangers
‘Idle
space
exchange’
for
public
needs
Learning
spillover
Makers
&
pop-­‐up
entrepreneurs
help
solve
urban
problems
Urban
farming
Evolu0onary
learning
communi0es
as
hubs
of
urban
learning
&
development
Increased
divides:
economic,
ethnical,
religious,
…
Media
ac0vism
to
increase
awareness
Fear
&
anxiety
related
to
diversity
lead
to
reac0onary
conserva0sm
&
protec0onism
Skill
/
experience
obtained
in
community
is
recognized
as
a
degree
Ci0es
help
create
natural
environment
&
reduce
effects
of
climate
change
‘Digital
Athens’:
robo0cs
&
smart
environments
replace
human
urban
workers
Soc
technology
/
format
Policy
/
governance
mechanism
Risk
factor
Hard
technologies
Family
community
learning
Connec0vity
redefines
families:
mul0ple
/
shared
families
etc.
Peacemaking
/
media0on
as
a
basic
skill
39
Risk
of
dehumaniza0on
of
society
due
to
technology
media0on
Community
health
as
focus
of
community
learning
Urban
naviga0on
through
learning
opportuni0es
Learning
Ecosystem
Maturity
Metrics
‘Learner
Maker’
Spaces

40. Key
trends
shaping
future
of
local
learning
ecosystems
Concentrated
urbanizaQon
-­‐
growing
megaciQes,
shrinking
small
ciQes:
•
Urbaniza0on
in
21
century
is
coupled
with
city
concentra0on,
as
people
move
from
small
ci0es
into
megaci0es.
The
richness
of
megacity
educa0onal
landscape
allows
for
emergence
of
full-­‐scale
‘learning
ecosystems’
that
would
support
educa0on
of
a
whole
person
throughout
life0me.
• Sustainability
of
megaci0es
will
require
applica0on
of
various
technologies
that
would
increase
safety
&
comfort
of
the
city,
increase
the
produc0vity
of
urban
work,
and
redefine
city
rela0on
with
the
natural
environment:
robo0cs,
smart
environment
&
Big
Data
for
execu0on
&
coordina0on
of
city
processes;
healthy
food
produc0on
through
urban
micro-­‐agriculture;
new
resource
&
waste
management
processes
that
can
make
ci0es
the
source
of
clean
air
/
water,
fer0le
soil,
restored
species
of
plants
&
animals.
These
prac0ces
of
sustainability
should
be
supported
by
community
learning
(e.g.
learning
about
sustainable
food
produc0on
as
‘learning
through
ea0ng’)
• Efficient
management
of
city
resources
would
allow
more
public
spaces
be
used
for
learning
&
interac0on,
allowing
communi0es
to
create
more
public
good.
Idle
spaces
can
be
shared
through
public
‘exchanges’
Growth
of
self-­‐organizing
communiQes
through
‘third-­‐space’:
• Public
spaces
become
venues
where
communi0es
are
established
&
maintained.
‘Starbucks
Agora’
is
an
exemplary
format
that
encourages
local
communi0es
to
use
cafes
and
other
‘third-­‐spaces’
to
connect,
share
knowledge
&
skills
(in
form
of
public
lectures,
leisure
clubs
etc.),
and
discuss
important
community
mabers
through
various
forms
of
par0cipatory
dialogues.
• Self-­‐organized
city
communi0es
can
aim
to
solve
local
problems
through
project-­‐based
problem-­‐
oriented
formats
such
as
local
hackathons,
maker
movement
ac0vi0es,
pop-­‐up
entrepreneurship
etc.
• Spontaneous
&
collabora0ve
public
art
becomes
an
important
vehicle
in
removing
barriers
between
individuals
&
communi0es
and
engaging
strangers
into
dialogues
and
collec0ve
ac0ons.
• Essen0ally,
communi0es
become
the
places
to
prevent
dehumaniza0on
of
society
that
is
induced
by
intensified
applica0on
of
technologies
40

41. Key
trends
shaping
future
of
local
learning
ecosystems
(2)
Learning
spillover
–
from
formal
to
informal,
from
specialized
to
omnipresent:
• As
city
increasingly
becomes
a
learning
space,
new
tools
will
support
individual
&
collec0ve
learning.
Among
the
most
important
ones
are
naviga0on
tools
which
will
couple
personal
learning
trajectories
(or
interests
/
preferences)
with
learning
opportuni0es
that
exist
in
the
proximity
of
a
learner.
• In
the
longer
run,
various
elements
of
community-­‐based
learning
would
integrate
into
Evolu0onary
Learning
Communi0es
that
may
become
‘hubs’
of
urban
learning
&
development
for
individuals,
families,
and
groups
(a
prototype
of
such
‘hubs’
are
‘Learner
Maker
Spaces’
for
new
models
of
learning)
• Policies
that
recognize
skills
/
knowledge
obtained
in
community-­‐based
learning
as
a
formal
degree
will
help
legi0mize
and
increase
popularity
of
new
forms
of
educa0on.
• Learning
Ecosystem
Maturity
Metrics,
a
system
of
indicators
indica0ng
compara0ve
development
of
local
learning
ecosystems
(similar
to
Technology
Readiness
metrics
or
LEED
cer0fica0on
system),
can
be
used
to
help
NGOs
and
regional
administra0ons
to
understand
how
to
improve
learning
processes
in
their
local
ecosystems
and
to
create
increasingly
resilient
communi0es.
Increased
divides
–
economic,
ethnical,
religious,
…:
• Ci0es,
and
especially
megaci0es,
due
to
their
high
diversity,
ocen
become
the
source
of
tensions.
In
response
to
the
increasingly
complexity
of
urban
life,
some
socie0es
try
to
conserve
themselves,
restrict
the
inflow
of
variety
and
even
launch
‘controlled
archaiza0on’
–
which
moves
the
problem
to
next
systemic
level
and
poten0ally
aggravates
it.
This
may
lead
to
increased
instances
of
violence
&
social
injus0ce
directed
at
minority
or
s0gma0zed
groups.
‘New
media’
can
become
the
source
of
urban
ac0vism
that
responds
to
such
processes.
Conflict
media0on
&
peacemaking
may
become
widely
distributed
skills
to
help
prevent
community
&
family
violence.
• Families
are
undergoing
a
major
transforma0on
that
is
accelerated
by
connec0vity
that
both
builds
barriers
within
the
conven0onal
family
and
allows
for
new
associa0ons.
Par0cipa0on
in
mul0ple
or
shared
families
becomes
widespread,
and
ra0onale
of
the
family
is
redefined,
shicing
from
kin
loyalty
and
economic
bonds
to
associa0ons
based
on
shared
values
and
existen0al
interests.
Families
become
collec0ve
learners
that
increasingly
engage
in
mul0-­‐genera0onal
community-­‐based
learning.
41

42. How
will
the
future
look
like
for
local
learning
ecosystems
…
in
2020
…
in
2030
• Public
spaces
and
‘third-­‐places’
become
venues
of
community-­‐based
learning.
Idle
spaces
are
increasingly
used
for
collec0ve
learning
needs.
Public
art
projects
encourage
people
to
explore
and
remove
barriers
between
individuals
/
communi0es
• Instant
formats
for
community
interac0on,
such
as
‘Starbucks
Agoras’
and
urban
hackathons,
help
connect
&
empower
local
learners
and
solve
local
community
problems
• Tools
for
urban
learner
naviga0on
help
connect
personal
learning
interests
with
the
mul0tude
of
learning
opportuni0es
offered
within
communi0es,
events,
ins0tu0ons
etc.
• Technology-­‐enriched
ci0es
redefine
the
organiza0on
of
urban
living
and
the
rela0on
between
the
city
and
Nature
• ‘Digital
Athens’
-­‐
new
balance
of
work/leisure
is
enabled
by
robo0cs
&
smart
environment
• Learning
is
interconnected
with
a
quest
for
health
and
quality
of
life.
There
is
a
strong
emphasis
on
individual
and
community
health
• Families
redefine
themselves
on
the
grounds
of
shared
values
and
existen0al
interests,
and
new
families
become
mul0-­‐genera0onal
community
learners
42

43. EvoluQonary
learning
communiQes:
hubs
for
learning,
inquiry,
design
&
acQon
43
Evolu0onary
learning
community
(ELC)
Family
life
(children-­‐
elders)
Ecology
Food
systems
Leadership
/
personal
develop-­‐
ment
Physical
/
emo0onal
health
Spirituality
Art
/
cultural
expression
Economy
/
entrepre-­‐
neurship
Evolu0onary
learning
communi0es
are
places
where
we
can
do
the
work
to
prevent
the
dehumaniza0on
of
society
Source:
GEF
CA
session

44. Global
online
learning
plaorms
New
models
of
knowledge
crea0on
(‘post-­‐
science’)
Learning
for
emerging
social
prac0ces
Local
learning
ecosystems
Governance
of
Global
Learning
Ecosystem
&
Shared
Projects
System
of
governance
+
systemic
innova0ons
44

45. Architecture
of
global
educaQonal
ecosystem
`
Global
learning
pla[orms
(GLPs)
• Global
content
is
crowdsourced
in
real-­‐0me
through
collabora0ve
crea0vity
&
computer-­‐assisted
knowing
and
learning
environments
• Niche
players
in
global
content
provision
integrated
by
integral
providers
that
support
(standard)
individual
learning
(&
career)
trajectories
• Meta-­‐plaorm
built
on
the
principles
defined
by
‘Declara0on
of
Learners
Rights’
‘Meta-­‐city’
City
/
area
educaQonal
ecosystem
• Local
(learner
focused)
content
&
process
• Local
educa0onal
providers
integrated
into
personalized
learning
‘pathways’
(that
may
also
be
physical
pathways)
• Urban
public
spaces
becoming
educa0onal:
e.g.
Starbucks
Agoras
• ‘Points
of
connec0on’
with
GLPs
• Global
corpora0ons
with
shared
prac0ces
• Interna0onal
movements
(e.g.
Slow
Food
or
Rotary)
• Educa0onal
franchises,
incl.
social
change
plaorms
(e.g.
Impact
Hub,
Techstars,
…)
• Interna0onal
online
/
offline
art
projects
Source:
GEF
analysis
45

46. (Ethical)
principles
of
global
educaQonal
ecosystem
1. ‘Technologies
for
people
–
not
people
for
technologies’:
future
educa0onal
systems
cannot
be
built
with
new
technological
architecture
alone
(as
it
happened
with
Internet
search,
social
media
interac0on,
or
personalized
helpers
like
Siri).
It
should
also
consider
• Values
&
principles
defined
by
the
‘Declara0on
of
Learner
Rights’
(incl.
the
principle
of
primacy
of
learner
demands
&
interests)
• Social
design
of
new
educa0on
based
on
systemic
pedagogical
&
psychological
research
(incl.
‘digital
pedagogy’)
2. If
the
transi0on
to
true
life
long
learning
happens:
• The
objec0ve
of
educa0on
should
not
be
‘acquisi0on
of
skills
&
knowledge’,
but
support
to
life
long
human
development
(transi0on
from
competencies
to
meta-­‐
competencies,
and
from
meta-­‐competencies
to
existen0al
competencies)
• Educa0on
should
become
focused
on
whole
person,
i.e.
it
should
help
develop
not
only
our
cogni0ve
abili0es
and
‘knowledge
base’,
but
also
our
bodies,
our
social
&
emo0onal
intelligence
–
and
this
development
should
be
supported
by
various
educa0onal
technologies
• Quality
of
the
learning
and
related
human
feelings,
such
as
love,
joy,
trust,
and
acceptance,
should
be
placed
at
the
heart
of
educa0onal
processes.
3. Community
(of
prac00oners
driven
by
shared
values)
becomes
a
central
space
in
knowledge
acquisi0on
and
knowledge
crea0on
(that
in
the
future
become
elements
of
the
same
process)
46
Source:
GEF
analysis

47. GEF:
possible
strategic
iniQaQves
that
may
accelerate
transiQon
towards
‘new’
educaQon
2015
2016
2018
2017
Declara0on
of
Learner
Rights
Meta-­‐plaorm:
interoperable
plaorm
between
GLPs
Granddaughter
of
All
Demos:
advanced
tools
for
collabora0ve
learning
are
created
to
commemorate
50
years
since
Doug
Engerlbard’s
‘Mother
of
All
Demos’
Learning
Ecosystem
Maturity
Metrics
on
city
/
region
level
Network
of
‘Learner
Maker
Spaces’:
hubs
for
urban
learning
that
help
various
forms
of
community
learning
47
Challenges
&
accelera0on
programs
to
catalyze
systemic
innova0on
in
educa0on
Mapping
of
systemic
innovators
Source:
GEF
CA
session

48. 48
Learner
Maker
Space:
a
hub
for
urban
learning
ecosystem
innovaQons
Accelerators
for
learning
&
social
innovaQon:
• Ed
tech
startups
• Social
entrepreneurship
projects
• Projects
of
change
in
schools
/
universi0es
(main
ques0on:
is
it
possible
to
capitalize
this
type
of
projects
to
make
accelera0on
sustainable?)
Laboratories
for
social
&
learning
innovaQon,
e.g.:
• Gamefica0on
/
playifica0on
&
game
(play)
design
• Project-­‐based
learning
• Future
awareness
• Design
thinking
Exchange
of
best
pracQces
between
innovators:
• Innova0ve
(e.g.
‘free’)
schools
• Fablabs
&
maker
spaces
• Startup
accelerators
• Live
game
developers,
etc.
Space
for
experiments
on
new
&
breakthrough
innova0ons
in
urban
learning,
e.g.:
• Maker
classes
&
hackathons
• Social
innova0on
‘living
labs’
• Foresights
&
vision
building
exercises
for
the
community,
etc.
Network
of
‘hubs’
across
the
world
VC
funds
inves0ng
in
new
projects
Learner
Maker
Space
Agenda
of
local
/
regional
communi0es
&
govt
Demand
from
local
schools
&
universi0es
Source:
GEF
CA
session
and
GEF
interviews

49. PART
3:
HOW
WILL
NEW
EDUCATION
UNFOLD
–
POSSIBLE
SCENARIOS
49

50. Internal
inerQa
of
exisQng
system
is
the
main
challenge
in
creaQng
‘new’
educaQon
‘Tradi0onal’
educa0on
systems
‘New’
educa0on
Blockage:
exis0ng
system
design,
although
inefficient,
is
based
on
several
interdependent
locked-­‐in
arrangements
(e.g.
degree
&
cer0fica0on
system,
teacher
qualifica0ons
&
job
market
arrangements,
etc.)
that
has
high
‘reassembly’
cost
that
no
individual
agent
(not
even
government)
is
ready
to
pay
‘Reassembled’
design:
• Network-­‐based
dynamically
evolving
eco-­‐system
of
mul0ple
types
of
providers
• Supports
lifelong
learning
• Supports
learning
everywhere,
all
the
0me
Source:
GEF
analysis
(based
on
interviews
during
GEF
CA)
?
2015
2035
Current
design:
• Hierarchical
system
of
educa0onal
‘levels’
largely
controlled
by
na0onal
governments
• Focuses
on
socializing
&
professional
skills
during
first
15-­‐25
years
of
life
• Learning
happens
in
specific
loca0ons
in
specific
0mes
only
50

51. What
are
(some)
key
roles
that
‘new’
educaQon
providers
have
to
undertake?
51
EducaQonal
insQtuQon
(school
/
university)
as
‘unified’
provider
Development
of
‘world
view’
Assessment
Integrated
learning
/
all-­‐round
development
Socializa0on
/
ci0zenship
training
Voca0onal
training
/
real
life
projects
Learning
plaorms
Fab/hack-­‐labs
&
maker
spaces
Clubs
/
communi0es
Integra0on
providers
Independent
cer0fica0on
systems
…
‘New’
providers
in
ecosystem
Func0ons
of
tradi0onal
‘integrated’
educa0onal
providers
can
be
‘unbundled’
by
networks
of
‘new’
providers
within
learning
ecosystems
Source:
GEF
analysis
(based
on
interviews
during
GEF
CA)

52. New
integrators:
who
are
the
candidates?
52
In
the
new
(network)
economy,
ecosystems
are
built
around
‘integrators’
that
serve
as
‘entry
point’
to
end
users
(e.g.
Google
in
searching,
Facebook
in
social
media,
AppStore
in
smartphone
applica0ons,
etc.).
In
‘new’
educa0on,
such
integrators
must
become
long-­‐term
providers
of
personalized
learning
trajectories
Personal
learning
trajectory
Candidate
type
1:
‘Long
game’
providers
Candidate
type
2:
Global
learning
plaorms
Candidate
type
3:
Career
management
&
talent
investment
Candidate
type
4:
Personal
development
plaorms
Why:
game
developers
&
toy
companies
legi0mize
their
increasing
access
to
children
&
adult
playing
0me
by
providing
them
‘useful’
educa0onal
services
What:
game
universes
&
robo0c
toys
with
long
playing
scenarios
that
have
educa0on
components
Candidate
companies:
Blizzard,
MS
Xbox,
LEGO
Why:
‘repackaging’
of
academic
&
voca0onal
knowledge
into
online
content
championed
by
top
universi0es
&
major
training
companies
What:
various
professional
cer0ficates
&
academic
degrees
Candidate
companies:
Coursera,
EdX
Why:
providers
of
personal
development
seek
long-­‐
term
engagement
with
prac00oners
What:
long-­‐term
personal
development
scenarios
enhanced
by
gadgets
(e.g.
biofeedback)
Candidate
companies:
WildDivine
(this
is
most
underdeveloped
sector)
Why:
professional
social
media
extends
into
career
management
(personalized
educa0on
&career
trajectories)
&
helps
companies
invest
in
talent
What:
personalized
educa0on
&
training
to
manage
career
opportuni0es
&
income
stream
Candidate
companies:
LinkedIn,
Monster
Social
media
(e.g.
Facebook
or
Twiber
feeds):
educa0onal
scenarios
as
a
part
of
personally
filtered
informa0on
flow
Geotarge;ng
(e.g.
Foursquare):
educa0onal
trajectories
as
a
part
of
personal
pathways
through
local
areas
Source:
GEF
analysis

53. Stage
1:
support
to
exis0ng
system
Up
;ll
2010s
Stage
2:
system
expansion
2010s-­‐2020s
Stage
3:
emergence
of
ecosystem
Late
2020s
and
onwards
Educa0onal
system
largely
dominated
by
tradi0onal
ins0tu0ons
(schools
/
colleges
/
universi0es),
while
new
providers
focus
on
suppor0ng
services
How
can
‘beauQful
excepQons’
become
‘new
systemic
norm’:
a
possible
scenario
Majority
of
ed
tech
companies
that
see
schools
&
universi0es
as
their
target
market
and
work
on
specific
improvements
for
exis0ng
educa0onal
processes:
e.g.
Blackboard,
Promethean
etc.
Providers
that
seek
to
create
addi0onal
skills
/
knowledge
outside
or
adjacent
to
standard
curriculum:
e.g.
EdModo,
PresenceLearning,
Lego
Mindstorm
clubs
etc.
New
educa0onal
providers
abempt
to
take
over
parts
of
the
key
educa0onal
processes
in
areas
that
are
complimentary
to
exis0ng
schools
/
universi0es
New
educa0onal
providers
can
support
all-­‐round
process
on
par
with
exis0ng
educa0onal
system
(and
can
provide
new
func0onality
such
as
personalized
learning)
None
of
the
exis0ng
players
at
the
moment;
mul0ple
candidate
technologies
exist
(global
learning
plaorms
such
as
Coursera
and
EdCast,
etc.)
53
Source:
GEF
analysis

54. Possible
architecture
of
future
educaQonal
ecosystems
54
Global
learning
plaorm
&
learning
trajectory
management
system
1st
Qer
suppliers:
‘package’
content
&
provide
standard
educa0on-­‐related
services
Integrator:
provides
&
coordinates
integrated
learning
experiences
MOOC
provider
Cer0fica0on
plaorm
Simulator
provider
2nd
Qer
suppliers:
provide
original
content
&
support
‘packaging’
Company
/
community
holding
specific
knowledge
/
skill
Simula0on
socware
developer
Future
educa0onal
ecosystems
will
likely
model
the
design
of
other
network-­‐based
industries:
in
this
case,
ecosystems
will
be
clustered
around
integrators
that
coordinate
their
supplier
systems,
organized
into
0ers.
Various
type
of
educa0on
providers
and
ed
tech
companies
will
need
to
define
their
role
in
rela0on
to
future
integrators.
Source:
GEF
analysis

55. 55
Key
challenge
remaining:
public
vs.
private
changemaking?
While
it
is
highly
possible
that
private
and
independent
providers
are
capable
of
rebuilding
or
upgrading
many
elements
of
educa0onal
systems,
educa0on
also
serves
societal
needs
and
therefore
should
retain
public
elements.
However,
it
remains
an
open
discussion
whether
public
providers
are
able
to
lead
the
transforma0on,
or
if
they
are
going
to
respond
to
pressures
created
by
providers
outside
the
conven0onal
system.
Also,
the
role
of
regulators
themselves
is
likely
to
shic
from
direct
governance
to
cul0va0on
of
ecosystems.
Some
ideas
from
par0cipants
of
GEF
California
are
quoted
below:
“Governments
can
contribute
to
the
accelera;on
of
innova;ons
in
educa;on
through
the
investment
and
carrying
out
of
high-­‐level
research.
Na;onal
organiza;on
can
also
help
build
bridges
between
different
parts
of
the
system.”
–
Olivier
Brechard
“Scenario
[of
change
driven
by
private
providers
outside
educa;on
system]
raises
concerning
ques;ons
about
the
degree
of
democra;c
control
or
influence
upon
such
changes;
and
their
impact
upon
(the
already
fragile)
effort
toward
equity.
(..)
If
transforma;on
is
to
come
from
within
educa;on
systems
themselves,
it
will
depend
upon
the
emergence
of
a
different
kind
of
leadership.”
Valerie
Hannon
(2015)
“You
can’t
govern
free
and
open
learning
resources,
it’s
an
unstoppable
force
and
it’s
the
most
important
thing
that
happened
to
the
world
in
the
last
20
years.
[However,
i]n
the
foreseeable
future,
the
government
will
and
should
retain
the
responsibility
for
cer;fica;on
of
professionals.
But
it
has
to
remain
dynamic
so
that
we
con;nue
asking
ourselves
a
ques;on
what
people
of
a
certain
profession
need
to
know
and
be
able
to
do.”
-­‐
Tom
Vander
Ark
“One
of
the
most
important
things
is
peace.
All
countries
that
are
not
in
peace
have
no
chance
to
par;cipate
in
global
educa;on
system.”
-­‐
Victor
Van
Rij
“Technology
and
policies
are
closely
linked.
Government
may
decide
to
build
educa;onal
tools
and
content
and
to
make
them
available
as
public
good.”
–
Francois
Taddei

56. We
have
only
just
begun
the
process
of
discovering
and
inven0ng
the
new
organiza0onal
forms
that
will
inhabit
the
21st
Century.
We
need
the
courage
to
let
go
of
the
old
world,
to
relinquish
most
of
what
we
have
cherished,
to
abandon
our
interpreta0ons
about
what
does
and
doesn’t
work.
Margaret
Wheatley
The
future
of
educaQon:
scratching
the
surface
“
”
56

57. Scratching
the
surface
…
57

58. APPENDIX
58

59. ComposiQon
of
the
ParQcipants
Group
Regional
representaQon
Male
/
female
OrganizaQonal
representaQon
Analysis
based
on
the
list
of
registered
par0cipants
(N=82)
Around
15-­‐20
addi0onal
par0cipants
from
Global
Technology
Symposium
joined
several
of
the
sessions
*
Innova0on
&
Change
Plaorms
are
various
NGOs
that
work
towards
systemic
transforma0on
of
educa0on
on
regional
or
global
level
*
59

60. Global
EducaQon
Futures
California:
Shared
Values
Space
Learning
innovation
Time
Meaningful
Health-
oriented
Presence
Gift and
heartbreak
Liberating
Resilience
Creativity
Self-
development
Strategy
Commitment /
responsibility
Critical
thinking
Trust
Purpose
Joy/ play
Community
Equity
Being learners
all the time
Love
Curiosity
Shared by more than 1 group
Shared by all groups
Values nominated only in 1 group
Meritocracy
Discovery
Value of
roles
Value of
personality
Learning journey/
mapping
Transparency
MentoringAppreciation
Named
by
par0cipants
in
response
to
the
ques0on
“What
key
values
are
manifested
in
experiences
that
shaped
you
as
learner,
teacher,
and
changemaker?’
and
summarized
within
four
working
groups
60

61. Global
EducaQon
Futures
California:
Project
Space
61
Clustering
of
#tags
used
by
par0cipants
to
describe
their
current
projects
in
educa0on
#Student’s
voice
#Collabora0ve
learning
#Systemicity
#Common
Good
#art
in
educa0on
#meaningful
fun
#spiritual
growth
#emo0onal
intelligence
#
technology
cannot
subs0tute
human
touch
#community
GDP
#reinven0ng
community
#healing
educa0on
#
resilience
#
technology
for
community
health
#
transgenera0onal
#fear
of
kids
#sprint
to
solu0ons
#parent
management
#fragmenta0on
#lack
of
common
values
#big
data
#predic0ve
analy0cs
#open
educa0on
#radical
informa0on
literacy
#computer-­‐mediated
learning
Overcoming
obstacles
Leveraging
technology
Bringing
human
touch
Embracing
community
#Love

62. GEF
California:
Key
Process
Group
work:
Values
that
shape
learners
+
Image
of
desirable
future
of
educa0on
Keynotes
/
panels:
founda0onal
concepts
that
define
the
‘design
space’
for
future
of
learning
Panels:
changes
within
and
outside
educa0on
systems
Group
work:
Key
trends
that
shape
future
of
educa0on
to
2035
Group
work:
New
educa0on
formats
Possible
project
ini0a0ves
Presenta0on
&
discussion
of
Group
work
results
April
1
April
2
April
3
Inputs
from
key
experts
Group
work
(Rapid
Foresight)
Final
presenta0on
62