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Summary of Elina's presentation about strategic foresight

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This is a summary of my presentation of strategic foresight.

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Summary of Elina's presentation about strategic foresight

  1. 1. Summary of Slides by futurist Elina Hiltunen, www. whatsnext.fi • We cannot predict the future! • Futures thinking can be used for ANTICIPATING, INNNOVATING and CREATING the futures 1
  2. 2. ANTICIPATING THE FUTURES • Because we cannot predict the future we have to be ready for various futures (scenarios) • Many organisations (like Shell) have used scenarios. They are good for strategic foresight and for product development • Scenarios are various (and different kinds of) paths to the future from the present. • The idea with scenarios is that we will be mentally prepared for each scenario, and look for weak signals of them. 2
  3. 3. ANTICIPATING THE FUTURES • Scenarios are made of megatrends, trends, weak signals (emerging issues) and wild cards • Megatrend= a big phenomena affecting many people in the world and have lasted for a while, and will probably last for many years. Examples are: aging of population, climate change, increase of population, technology development • Trend is more local, and have lasted a shorter time. Example: increase of social media use, increase of web shopping • Wild card is sudden big event, that usually surprises us. It has vast consequenses. Examples are tsunamis in Asia 2004, and in Japan, 2011 (+ earthquake, nuclear power accident) 3
  4. 4. ANTICIPATING THE FUTURES 4 • Weak signal is a first sign of emerging change, that can become a trend in the future- or not. Exampes are: greengoose.com, vertical farming visions, victomless leather jacket • Weak signals are something, that we tend to underestimate, laugh at, we do not want to talk about etc. • However, weak signals are the most important knowledge of the future we have • A single weak signal does dot tell anything, the key is to collect them and analyze them. • The whole organization should collect, store and analyze weak signals.  this is a way to holistic organizational futures learning
  5. 5. 2. CREATING THE FUTURES 5 • We are active players, when it comes to future. We have a power to modify the future. This is liked to innovating of the futures • When there is a problem, there is a future business opportunity! • There are many methods for creativity and innovation. Some methods creatd by Hiltunen are: – Strategic serendipity: here you combine different weak signals,/trends, future consumer segments and themes by using serendipity – The Futures Windows: method of showing visual weak signals in organization facilities to create innovation
  6. 6. 3. COMMUNICATING THE FUTURES • Collect the collective wisdom by communicating your visions of the future to your stakeholders. Collect the feedback and you will learn more about th future • Communicating the futures (sending weak signals) are used for example by car companies in car fairs. Their concept cars are not their future cars, but their purpose is to communicate about the future possibilities • Communicating the futures is important because of – Bränding yourself a a visionary company – Get feedback of your visions and valuable insights about the future • Good companies in communicating the futures: Finnair (departure2093.com), Airbus (the future by Airbus), Philips Design Probes 6
  7. 7. More futures stuff • From Elina’s web pages: www.whatsnext.fi, you can download there Elina’s PhD. Thesis. • Elina’s Forthcoming book: ”matkaopas tulevaisuuteen”, published by Talentum, May 2012. • Facebook: ”What’s Next Consulting”, and ”Matkaopas tulevaisuuteen” 7

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