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2013 North Atlantic Hurricane & Typhoon Season Primer
1. The 2013 North Atlantic Hurricane
& Typhoon Season Primer
July 16, 2013
2. Today’s Presenters
• John Mangano
– Research Scientist, Model Development Group
• Justin Brolley
– Research Scientist, Model Development Group
• Iain Willis
– Product Manager, Product Management Group
• Aarti Dinesh
– Product Manager, Product Management Group
3. Agenda
• Factors affecting Tropical Cyclone Activity
• North Atlantic Hurricane
• West Pacific Typhoon
• CatWatch™
5. Global Tropical Cyclone Basins
• Average annual number of named storms by basin
Source: IBTracks
166
1127
11 6 9
6. Major Factors Influencing Atlantic and North Pacific
Tropical Cyclone Activity
El Niño / La Niña – ENSO
AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation
7. ENSO - El Niño-Southern Oscillation
• WARM Phase (El Niño)
– Above average sea surface
temperatures
– Shear Impedes
development in Atlantic
– Tropical cyclones have more
time to develop in W. Pacific
Ocean
• COOL Phase (La Niña)
– Below average sea surface
temperatures
– Low shear allows for
development in Atlantic
– Tropical cyclones have less
time to develop before
landfall or re-curvature in
W. Pacific
• Cycles last roughly 2-7
years
8. ENSO: WARM PHASE (EL NIÑO) EFFECTS
Above average sea surface
temperatures in the main
development region
Storms form farther south
and east than normal
Tropical cyclones have
more time to develop
Increased vertical
wind shear inhibits
development
9. ENSO: COOL PHASE (LA NIÑA) EFFECTS
Below average sea surface
temperatures in the main
development region
Storms form farther north
and west than normal
Tropical cyclones have
less time to develop
Low vertical wind shear
promotes tropical storm
development
10. Going into the 2013 season with cool neutral phase
ENSO Phases 1950-Present
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory
http://www.cdc.noaa.gov/enso/enso.mei_index.html
http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/enso/mei/
12. AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
Source of AMO Data: NOAA Earth System Research Laboratory
13. AMO – Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
• COOL Phase
– Cooler SSTs – less energy for
development
– Increased shear above tropical
surface easterlies
– Unfavorable environment for
hurricanes
• WARM Phase
– Warmer SSTs – more energy for
development
– Reduced shear above tropical
surface easterlies
– Favorable environment for
hurricanes
For more information, please refer to the white paper at:
http://www.eqecat.com/pdfs/north-atlantic-hurricane-model-near-term-2010-04-29.pdf
14. AMO: Affect on Tropical Cyclones
North Atlantic
Annual
Count
AMO shift to warm phase
15. Major factors influencing Atlantic and North pacific
tropical cyclone activity
• El Niño / La Niña – ENSO
– Two-Seven year cycle in sea surface temperature in the
central and eastern Equatorial Pacific Ocean
– A cool neutral ENSO is expected persist throughout the
season.
• AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
– 70-year cycle in sea surface temperatures in the North
Atlantic Ocean
– Still in Warm Phase of Cycle (since 1995)
• PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation
– 20-30 year cycle of warmer/cooler than normal sea surface
temperatures over the North Pacific
– Currently in Cool Phase of Cycle
16. North Atlantic Hurricane
– Season forecast and prior years’ seasonal
forecast
– Factors influencing this season’s activity
17. 2012 HURRICANE SEASONAL FORECASTS
Date & Forecaster Named Storm Hurricanes Major Hurricanes
5/23 NOAA 13-20 7-11 3-6
6/3 CSU 18 9 4
6/4 TSR 15.6 7.7 3.5
4/8 WSI 16 9 5
4/15 NCSU 15 8.5 4.5
1981 - 2010 Avg. 12.1 6.4 2.7
Latest Warm AMO Avg. 15.2 8.0 3.7
18. High Activity Does Not Necessarily Translate
Into More US Landfalls
NAMED ATLANTIC STORMS VS U.S. HURRICANES
Correlation: US Hurricanes with Named Storms = 0.51
with Hurricane Count = 0.54
20. Key Drivers Impacting Hurricane Activity
• AMO - Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation
– Still in Warm Phase of Cycle (since 1995)
• El Niño / La Niña – ENSO
– A cool neutral ENSO is expected persist throughout the
season.
• Atlantic Sea Surface Temperatures (SST)
– Currently above average SSTs throughout most of the
basin.
• Wind Shear – Tropical Atlantic
– Currently high wind shear in Lesser Antilles and Cape
Verde and low wind shear elsewhere.
• Saharan Air Layer Outbreaks
– Dry air is currently present off Cape Verde.
– The wild card that negatively impacts forecast skill.
22. 500 mb Heights in 1950s and Recent Years
Source: NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis
1950s 2006-2012
7 Hurricane Landfalls
(NC-ME)
2 Hurricane Landfalls
(NC-ME)
23. Western North Pacific Typhoons
– Season forecast and prior years’ seasonal
forecast
– Factors influencing this season’s activity
24. 2013 Typhoon Season Forecasts
Forecaster/Date Named Typhoon Major Typhoons
Tropical Storm Risk-
7 May 2013
25.6 (±4.2) 16.0 (±3.4) 8.9 (±2.6)
Normal 27 17 9
City University, Hong Kong
– City University of Hong will not issue pre-season forecast in
2013 in order to incorporate latest research into forecasting
scheme.
25. Past TSR Typhoon Season May Forecasts
Letter grades summarize HURR / MAJ forecast quality
Season Probability (%) Storm Counts
ABOVE NORMAL BELOW Named Typhoons Major
2006 15 50 35 25-33 16-22 7-12
22 14 10
2007 36 46 18 23-31 14-20 5-11
25 16 9
2008 35 48 17 25-32 15-21 5-10
28 13 9
2009 16 46 38 24-31 15-21 7-12
23 15 7
2010 15 43 42 20-28 12-18 7-12
14 8 4
2011 20 43 37 24-32 15-21 5-10
21 10 7
2012 23 43 34 21-30 12-19 6-11
25 16 10
2013 38 42 20 21-30 13-19 6-12
6+ 2+ 1+
26. warm phase cool phase
PDO – Pacific Decadal Oscillation
• WARM Phase
– Above average SST in the tropical
Pacific
– More frequent El Niño Events
– Below average SST in the N. Pacific
– More favorable environment for
development of typhoons
• COOL Phase
– Below average SST in the tropical
Pacific
– More frequent La Niña Events
– Above average SST in the N. Pacific
– Less favorable environment for
development of typhoons
• Roughly 20-30 years in each phase with
inter-annual variation
– 1945-1975: COOL phase: 31 years
– 1976-1997: WARM phase: 33 years
– 1998-present: Recent COOL phase
28. PDO: Affect on Tropical Cyclones
Annual
Count
PDO shift to cool phase
29. Key Drivers Impacting Typhoon Activity
• Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO)
– 40-60 year cycle of warmer/cooler than normal sea
surface over the North Pacific
• Multi-decadal cycle
– 16-32 year cycle associated with El Niño / La Niña and
PDO
• El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO)
– 2-7 year cycle of warmer/cooler than normal sea surface
over tropical eastern Pacific
• Western Pacific Subtropical High (WPSH)
– Strength and extent of WPSH pressure system
31. Pre-Season
• Hurricane and
Typhoon Season
Primer
During the
Season
• CatWatch Alerts
• Post disaster
Survey
• Post-event Reports
• EQECAT Briefings
Post-Season
• Season Recap
Webinar
Information & Communication
Subscribe to CatWatch Email Alerts:
www.eqecat.com/catwatch/subscribe/
32. CatWatch
• EQECAT's catastrophe event notifications compiled
before, during, and after natural catastrophes.
• Providing critical event information about spatial
distribution of damage, potential post-event effects,
and its impact on the in/reinsurance industry.
Basins Named
Storms
Hurricanes
/ Typhoons
Landfalls
Atlantic 3 0 2
E Pacific 5 4 1
W Pacific 6 2 3
33. CatWatch Team
• The CatWatch team monitors natural catastrophe activity
around the world, and issues notifications about
significant events before and after they occur.
• Emphasis is on events that impact insurance industry in
regions covered by EQECAT’s peril models.
• Offers early insights and determines the impact of the
event on your finances.
• This helps you plan accordingly for capital outlays, and
gauge possible market-wide effects.
34. www.eqecat.com/
For more information,
Contact EQECAT, Inc:
In the Americas: (201) 287-8320
In Bermuda: (201) 287-8320
In UK/Europe/Asia: +44 207 265 2030
Email : information@eqecat.com
Thank You
Editor's Notes
I’d like to go over some Long-Term factors which can influence tropical storm activity in the northern Atlantic and Western North Pacific. These are frequently discussed in hurricane pre-season and start-of-season forecasts.(Next Slide)
Here is a schematic map that illustrates how the El Nino warm phase can affect tropical cyclone activity….In the central Pacific… Above Average SSTs promote convection, that is, thunderstorm development. … and clusters of thunderstorms can act as the “seeds” from which Tropical Cyclones can develop as they drift westward with the trade winds. So more storms may develop under these conditions. Plus, they may form further out than under normal conditions, and have more time to organize and intensify as they move west toward Asia.The increased thunderstorm activity due to an El Nino can actually cause vertical wind shear conditions in the western north Atlantic. Vertical Shear is a marked change in the wind speed and/or direction with increasing altitude. Shear disrupts tropical cyclone development, which do best under light wind conditions up through the atmosphere.
And in the Cool, La Nina phase, we see conditions in the North Pacific that are less favorable for tropical development.(Read Bullets)
Can we see the affect of PDO and AMO phases on tropical cyclone activity?This slide shows the count of Named Storms and Typhoons in the WNP on the top chart, and the Named Storms and Hurricanes for the Atlantic on the bottom.The total height of the Blue Bar indicates the number of Named Tropical Cyclones in the basin for that year.The Red portion of the bar shows the Typhoon count in the Western North Pacific, and Hurricane count in the North AtlanticThe Horizontal RED line: long-term average Hurricane or Typhoon Count[And the Horizontal BLUE line: long-term average count for Named Storms.]WNP: Change in activity in 1998 (shift in PDO to cool)NATL: Change in activity in 1995 (shift in AMO to warm) 1 animation click. Queue line:“When the years of the AMO and PDO shifts are displayed, it becomes a bit easier to compare the activity on the left and right of the yellow lines… the phase change years.Decreased Typhoon activity in the Pacific is evident starting in 1998, followed by an increase in the early 2000’s, and then a decrease later in the decade. This follows what we just saw on the PDO index in the previous slide.On the bottom chart, there is a clear increase in Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic after 1995, when the AMO warm phase started.
NOAA – National Oceanic & Atmospheric Administration – Govt ForecastCSU – Colorado State University – Dr. William Gray / Phillip KlotzbachTSR – Tropical Storm Risk – London-basedWSI - Weather Services International (now a Weather Channel Company)Internal Note: Warm AMO average is basically correct. Here is what I get 1950-2011: Average Warm Cool (1950-1969 / 1995-2011) (1970-1994)Named 11.11 12.32 9.32Hurr 6.31 7.16 5.04 Maj 2.71 3.49 1.56
Can we see the affect of PDO and AMO phases on tropical cyclone activity?This slide shows the count of Named Storms and Typhoons in the WNP on the top chart, and the Named Storms and Hurricanes for the Atlantic on the bottom.The total height of the Blue Bar indicates the number of Named Tropical Cyclones in the basin for that year.The Red portion of the bar shows the Typhoon count in the Western North Pacific, and Hurricane count in the North AtlanticThe Horizontal RED line: long-term average Hurricane or Typhoon Count[And the Horizontal BLUE line: long-term average count for Named Storms.]WNP: Change in activity in 1998 (shift in PDO to cool)NATL: Change in activity in 1995 (shift in AMO to warm) 1 animation click. Queue line:“When the years of the AMO and PDO shifts are displayed, it becomes a bit easier to compare the activity on the left and right of the yellow lines… the phase change years.Decreased Typhoon activity in the Pacific is evident starting in 1998, followed by an increase in the early 2000’s, and then a decrease later in the decade. This follows what we just saw on the PDO index in the previous slide.On the bottom chart, there is a clear increase in Hurricane Activity in the Atlantic after 1995, when the AMO warm phase started.
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