Capital Radar 2017

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook

Tax Alerte - prix de transfert - PLF 2021

Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable. Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)

As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage. Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook

Zahl der Gewinnwarnungen steigt auf Rekordniveau

Versicherer rechnen mit weniger Neugeschäft

Liquidity for advanced manufacturing and automotive sectors in the face of Co...

IBOR transition: Opportunities and challenges for the asset management industry

Fusionen und Übernahmen dürften nach der Krise zunehmen

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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2, April 2020

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EY Chemical Market Outlook - February 2020

Jobmotor Mittelstand gerät ins Stocken

Trotz Rekordumsätzen ist die Stimmung im Agribusiness durchwachsen

Rekordsummen für deutsche Start-ups

Deutschlands börsennotierte Unternehmen werden weiblicher

The theme for this quarter is inorganic. Although prices climbed in the fourth quarter as the balance of supply and demand tilted in favour of demand, OPEC + restraint was fundamental. The market is conscious of downside pressures that loom. OPEC + has announced production cuts through to the end of the first quarter. Beyond the first quarter, there is a risk that OPEC + grows weary of supporting the market and reverts to a strategy of growing production, protecting market share and placing pressure on the economics of unconventional producers. Production growth in Brazil and Norway has the potential to consume a significant portion of demand growth expected in 2020. Whether, or the extent to which, US shale output growth continues despite escalating financial strain across the E&P sector will be key in determining whether OPEC + cuts will be sufficient to balance the market in 2020. In the longer-term, focus remains on the energy mix of the future and its impact on the demand for petroleum products. A number of significant uncertainties remain, including electric vehicle (EV) penetration. EY’s ‘Fueling the Future’ analyzes the outlook under four distinct scenarios. The analysis shows that an inflection point in EV penetration is required by 2022 if the terms of the Paris Accord are to be met.

EY Q1 2020 price point

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EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)

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Capital Radar 2017

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