EY Österreich – Global Fraud Survey 2018

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EY Global Fraud Survey 2018
Zahl der entdeckten Betrugsfälle in
Österreich laut Managern rückläuﬁg
Die größten Risiken für Österreichs
Manager
©2018Ernst&YoungManagementConsultingGmbH
AllRightsReservedGraﬁk:Freepik.com
Korruption in Österreich aus Sicht der heimischen Manager kaum verbreitet – größte
Verbreitung in Brasilien, Kolumbien und Nigeria
Österreicher halten Ethik hoch – weltweit deutlich weniger Compliance-Bewusstsein
Welches Verhalten kann in Notsituationen für das eigene Unternehmen
gerechtfertigt sein?
96%
94%
Brasilien
n = 2.550
Kolumbien
Nigeria
?Welches Verhalten kann in Notsituationen für das eigene Unternehmen
?Welches Verhalten kann in Notsituationen für das eigene Unternehmen
gerechtfertigt sein??gerechtfertigt sein?
Italien
Indien
Makroökonom.
Umfeld
Cyber-Attacken
Compliance mit
Wettbewerbsrecht
Betrug und
Bestechung
40%
6%
90%
Persönliche
Geschenke
4% 21%
11%0%
Falschdarstellung
von Finanzergebnissen
Barzahlungen
13%
5%
0%
0%
Einladungen
Österreich Welt
Top 3 & Österreich | n = 2.550 | Klammer: Zahlen 2016 n = 2.550
Top 5 & Österreich | Weltweiter Durchschnitt: 38% | n = 2.550
68%
Österreich
Ukraine
(48%)
Kenia
(36%)
Russland
(18%)
Österreich
(24%)
36% 10%20%26%
60%
32%
32%
16%

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook

The theme for this quarter is governed. Apparent market balance at prices that could be sustainable is the product of calculated choices by market leaders and the cooperation of those who follow them. Economics played their customary role as well, with capital scarcity in North America taking about 2 million barrels per day out of the market, about half of the remaining gap in demand. While inventories are close to their pre-COVID-19 levels, there is still uncertainty. The resolution of the pandemic is in sight, but timing is unclear. Vaccine distribution in the US is having an impact but Europe is struggling to contain a third wave of infections. The taps have opened on economic stimulus, but it remains to be seen if policymakers have done enough or if they have overshot the mark. The shape of the crude oil forward curve has fundamentally changed since the end of the last quarter. In late December of last year, the Brent forward curve was gradually increasing while today, the curve is backwardated. This is a clear sign that the market sees a short-term dynamic that is disconnected from the medium-to-long-term fundamentals. The lasting impact of the COVID-19 pandemic remains to be seen. While many have opined that COVID-19 marks a turning point in energy transition, the IEA recently released a five-year forecast of oil demand that shows steady growth, albeit at rates that are below historical expectations. Gas markets are a paradox. At the Henry Hub and at LNG destinations, demand grows, investment lags and prices will occasionally attract attention. Traders, so far though, are unconvinced and futures prices don’t indicate imminent scarcity at any link in the value chain.

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook, Q2 April 2021

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We enter 2021 on a note of cautious optimism for global health, the world economy, and the oil and gas markets. The first weeks of December brought approval in the US and the UK of the first of several COVID-19 vaccines. The speed with which vaccine development occurred is unprecedented, but certainly welcome. In the weeks following the early November announcement of 90+% effectiveness by the manufacturer of the first approved vaccine, the price of WTI crude oil increased by US$10/bbl to US$48/bbl, the highest level since early March. Sustainability hasn’t returned yet, and whatever time it takes to get the world to normal, it will take even longer for normalization within the oil and gas markets. Inventories remain at historically high levels and, optimistically, it will take until April before inventory returns to levels observed in the preceding five years. That’s an estimate, and there has obviously been some difficulty properly calibrating the expectations of how balance will return and how long it will take. In late November, OPEC met to adjust its output plans because of the anemic rebound in demand. In mid-December, the IEA lowered its demand forecast for 2021 due mostly to continued sluggishness in aviation fuel demand. A mild winter has interrupted a recovery in North American natural gas prices after a run-up motivated by curtailed capital expenditures, upstream activity and production. After an initial meltdown, with cargo cancellations and dramatic price reversal, LNG markets have made a remarkable comeback, and the spread between Asia and Henry Hub has reached a level we haven’t seen in almost three years. It may be the case that interruption in FIDs has brought us to the cusp of a balance that can support reliable returns.

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook

Tax Alerte - prix de transfert - PLF 2021

Oil and gas prices have recovered steadily from their lows and are relatively stable, but that stability is supported by the combination of purposeful withholding of production by oil-producing countries and economic stress on upstream independents. Oil prices closed the quarter roughly where they started it, while refining spreads were down slightly. LNG spreads were substantially higher at the end of Q3 than they were at the beginning of the quarter but are still roughly half of what is generally thought of as sustainable. Going forward, the market will be looking closely at how the economy and demand respond to new developments with respect to a potential COVID-19 vaccine and the US election.

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook (Q4, October 2020)

As we close the second quarter of 2020, in most of Europe and Asia, the first (and hopefully last) wave of the COVID-19 crisis appears to be abating. In the parts of the US where the virus hit early, the profile has largely matched Europe’s, while in other parts, the urge to reopen businesses has trumped the desire to contain the virus and uncertainty looms. In the developing world, the crisis has just begun, but without the economic headroom and resources necessary to contain it. As the crisis unfolded, the effect on oil and gas demand has been predictable but difficult to gauge precisely and therefore difficult to manage. Oil prices have crept up steadily as production has been curtailed through coordinated action (OPEC+) and because of economic reality (unconventional oil in North America). That trend has been subject to momentary spasms when bad news hit the market. It would be understandable if traders were nervous, and it seems that they are. Although nowhere near where it was at the peak of the crisis, option implied volatility is still at historically high levels. Gas markets, without the benefit of coordination on the supply side, continue to deal with the market implications of storage at or near capacity. Interfuel competition in power generation has always provided something of a floor, but those lows have been, and will continue to be, tested.

EY Price Point: global oil and gas market outlook

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EY Österreich – Global Fraud Survey 2018

1. 36…26…20…10 EY Global Fraud Survey 2018 Zahl der entdeckten Betrugsfälle in Österreich laut Managern rückläuﬁg Die größten Risiken für Österreichs Manager ©2018Ernst&YoungManagementConsultingGmbH AllRightsReservedGraﬁk:Freepik.com Korruption in Österreich aus Sicht der heimischen Manager kaum verbreitet – größte Verbreitung in Brasilien, Kolumbien und Nigeria Österreicher halten Ethik hoch – weltweit deutlich weniger Compliance-Bewusstsein Welches Verhalten kann in Notsituationen für das eigene Unternehmen gerechtfertigt sein? 96% 94% Brasilien n = 2.550 Kolumbien Nigeria ?Welches Verhalten kann in Notsituationen für das eigene Unternehmen ?Welches Verhalten kann in Notsituationen für das eigene Unternehmen gerechtfertigt sein??gerechtfertigt sein? Italien Indien Makroökonom. Umfeld Cyber-Attacken Compliance mit Wettbewerbsrecht Betrug und Bestechung 40% 6% 90% Persönliche Geschenke 4% 21% 11%0% Falschdarstellung von Finanzergebnissen Barzahlungen 13% 5% 0% 0% Einladungen Österreich Welt Top 3 & Österreich | n = 2.550 | Klammer: Zahlen 2016 n = 2.550 Top 5 & Österreich | Weltweiter Durchschnitt: 38% | n = 2.550 68% Österreich Ukraine (48%) Kenia (36%) Russland (18%) Österreich (24%) 36% 10%20%26% 60% 32% 32% 16%

EY Österreich – Global Fraud Survey 2018

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