OS20 Online 8 December

1. 1EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Nicolás Cárdenas; Aya Omar; Francisco Nunes; Gustavo Machado
Department of Preventive Veterinary Medicine and Animal Health, School of Veterinary Medicine and Animal Science,
University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil.
Department of Population Health and Pathobiology, College of Veterinary Medicine, North Carolina State University,
Raleigh, NC, USA.
Secretary of Agriculture, Livestock and Agribusiness of State of Rio Grande do Sul (SEAPA-RS), Porto Alegre, Brazil.
A MULTI-SPECIES CONTACT-NETWORK
MODEL: BETWEEN-FARM DISEASE
SPREADING AMONG BOVINE, SMALL
RUMINANTS AND SWINE POPULATIONS.

2. 2EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
Space for your
video
Background
• Study area Rio Grande do Sul, Brazil
• Given the excess number of farms and
limited resources available,
• It is necessary a preparation to a large-
scale outbreaks and epidemics.
• Therefore, was proposed a Stochastic
multilevel Susceptible-Infected Model
to test control actions and evaluate
the potential of disease spread in a
multi-host network.
(Abdulla et al., 2017; Björnham et al., 2020; Carpenter et al., 2011; Yang et al., 2020).

3. 3EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
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video
Disease spread and targeted control action modeling :
Local level
• SI model .
• Animals were allocated
into metapopulations
(farms) and assumed to
move from S to I
according to FMD like
transmission coefficient
= 0.7.
• 10% prevalence as initial
stage in the farm
(Hyeyoung K et al., 2016; https://docs.idmod.org/projects/emod-hiv/en/latest/model-si.html

4. 4EuFMD | Open Session special edition | #OS20se
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video
Conclusions
• In this study we highlighted relevance to analyze the contacts among farms with
more than one species.
• Multi-host disease can be easily jump from one species to another through the animal
movements
• the swine network is more connected therefore high epidemic curves would be
expected, however these could be controlled with a low number of farms removed
from the network.
• It is necessary to remove a very high number of farms to control large outbreaks in
the cattle population https://www.freepik.es/

5. eufmdvirtual.com
8, 10, 15, 17 December 2020
EuFMD / Open Session