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T H E C O M I N G O F
E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y
TA K I N G C H A R G E O F O U R E N E R G Y F U T U R E
John Farrell
Director of Energy DemocracyJune 17, 2016
Presentation to the Midwest Energy Fair
A Q U E S T I O N
S M A RT P H O N E I M A G E
Did you get one
of theseโ€ฆ
Photo credits:
Donnie Ray Jones and Billy Brown via Flickr
D I S R U P T I O N
From your
landline phone
company?
A B O R I N G PA S T
โ€œThere is one
great advantage
that must follow
regulation, and
that advantage is
protection"
F I R S T S TAT E O V E R S I G H T O F
M O N O P O LY U T I L I T I E S ( C . 1 9 0 5 )
T H I S C O U L D
TA K E A
W H I L E โ€ฆ
โ€œWe come to work each day to
do what we did the day beforeโ€
A D I F F E R E N T E R A
S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y
1,221 kWh
846 kWh
448 kWh
Efficient
neighbors
All neighbors
YOU
Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31
Great
Good
More than average
>
You used 47% less
than your efficient neighbors
HOW YOUโ€™RE DOING
S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y
1,221 kWh
846 kWh
448 kWh
Efficient
neighbors
All neighbors
YOU
Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31
Great
Good
More than average
>
You used 47% less
than your efficient neighbors
HOW YOUโ€™RE DOING
1-3% savings
D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T
D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T
1 utility,
330 megawatts =
When did electricity sales peak
nationwide?
โ€ข 2013
โ€ข 2010
โ€ข 2007
โ€ข 2005
โ€ข earlier
3.2
3.3
3.4
3.5
3.6
3.7
3.8
2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
P E A K
S TA G N A N T R E TA I L S A L E S
trillion kilowatt-hours
What is the last year fossil fuel provided
> 60% of new power plant capacity?
โ€ข 2013
โ€ข 2010
โ€ข 2007
โ€ข 2005
โ€ข earlier
Percentofnewcapacity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Fossil fuel Renewable
Gigawattsadded(whiteline)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2
R I S I N G R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y S H A R E
June 10, 2015
of new power plant capacity
Percentofnewcapacity
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Coal Gas Wind Small Solar Big Solar
U . S . P O W E R P L A N T C A PA C I T Y A D D I T I O N S
(annual megawatts, AC)
Sources: EIA and SEIA
Gigawattsadded(whiteline)
0
10
20
30
40
50
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Q1
C O S T P R E S S U R E S
Lower wholesale prices mean utilities
with excess generation sell for less
N O W M O V I N G FA S T
1 I N S TA L L E V E RY
6 0 S E C O N D S
I N C O N T R A S T
0
7,500
15,000
22,500
30,000
$0.00
$2.50
$5.00
$7.50
$10.00
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014
Weighted Avg. Cost ($/W)
Cumulative Capacity (MW)
SOLAR INSTALLS DRIVE RAPID PRICE DECLINE
B AT T E R I E S
E V E RY W H E R E
U N P R E C E D E N T E D
P O W E R
Software allows
many iterations
2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 20142009 2010
A W H O L E
N E W W O R L D
Minster
POPULATION 2,806
P E R C E N T O F
H O U S E H O L D S W I T H
S O L A R
15%
In 20 yearsโ€ฆ
R . I . P.
U N P R E C E D E N T E D
O P P O R T U N I T Y
$ 3 6 0 B I L L I O N
23%
49%
All buildings
Source: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf
R O O F T O P S O L A R P O T E N T I A L 2 0 1 6
POTENTIAL PERCENT OF
POWER FROM LOCAL
ROOFTOP SOLAR
Over 50%
40 to 50%
25 to 40%
11 to 25%
2008 data
40-50%
25-40%
Over
50%
Over
50%
25-40%
40%
53% used on-site
S O L A R A L O N E
S O L A R + E V + B AT T E RY
+ S M A RT C O N T R O L S
89% used on-site
B I G B E N E F I T S
R E N E WA B L E
B E N E F I T S
0
3
6
9
12
15
Jan-2002 Jan-2004 Jan-2006 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014
Natural Gas Price
Wind and Sun Price
D I S T R I B U T E D
B E N E F I T S
Solar on Littlestown Hospital
D I S P E R S I N G 1 - M W S O L A R P L A N T S
R E D U C E S I N T E G R AT I O N C O S T S
0
1
2
3
4
1 solar project 5 solar projects 25 solar projects
0.3ยข
1.1ยข
3.9ยข
cents per kilowatt-hour
Credit: USDA
L O C A L E C O N O M I C B E N E F I T S
1 megawatt
$2.5 million
20 jobs
Source: ILSR, 2014
$5.4 million in energy savings
How Green Energy Farmers busted the barriers:
Formed several,
unrelated LLCs with
only Iowa owners.
State regulation Pass-through to individuals
For a limited time, the
Production Tax Credit was
available as a cash grant,
more easily used by
ordinary investors.
Sold to the utility
Electricity was sold via a
power purchase
agreement to the utility.
C O M M U N I T Y-
O W N E D
O L D R U L E S
U T I L I T Y R U L E S A R E A N T I Q U E
A Q U E S T I O N
What are some rules weโ€™ve already adopted?
Timeline of State Renewable Energy Standards
1983 1991 19991998199719961994
NE
NJ
TX
NV
NM WACA
DE
CT
MT
DCMD
HI
MN
MN
WIIA
IA
VT
PA
YEAR UPDATED
Sources: C2ES, DSIRE
YEAR ADOPTED
2000 2001 2002 20062005
OR
NC
NH
AZ MN
NV
NY
RI
CO
NM NJ
(30 total)
2003 20102004 200920082007
MA MI
MO
OH
IL
KS
WI
CT
PA
NM
NV
MN
CT
DE
CA
AZ
TX
NV
CO
CT
CO
CA
WI
NJ
HI
CT
NJ
TX
PA
NM
NJ
MN
ME
MD
MD
MA
DE
DC
NV
MN
ME
IL
HI
DC
MA
IL
DE
CO
RI
OR NY
NJ
MD
Timeline of State Energy Efficiency Standards
1999 2000 20082007200620052004
CA
CO
CT
HI
IL
MD
MI
MN
NV
NM
NY
OH*NC
PA
PA
RITX
TX
VT
WA
YEAR UPDATED
Source: ACEEE, 2014, http://bit.ly/eers-timeline
YEAR ADOPTED
2009 2010 2011 201420132012
IA
ME
MA
OR
CA
HI
NV
AZ
AR WI
CT
NM
(25 total)
* โ€œpausedโ€ in 2013
N E W R U L E S
E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I N A C T I O N
GRID AS
COMMONS
= super efficient buildings
A solution that
New York is
pursuing
C O N E D
T R A N S PA R E N T P R I C I N G
Day NightNight
-6%
T R A N S PA R E N T P R I C I N G
Peak energy use
PECO, 2015
The utility adds a monthly
assessment to the customerโ€™s bill
to pay for energy savings
improvements, with the savings
greater than the monthly cost.
A utility customer signs up for
better insulation, a rooftop solar
array, or a share of solar on a
nearby building.
1
2
M A K I N G
C L E A N
E N E R G Y
E A S I E R
T H A N A
C R E D I T
C A R D
S W I P E
F I N A N C I N G : O N - B I L L R E PAY M E N T
H O W D O W E C H A N G E ?
2 5 % C O N T R O L
T H E I R U T I L I T Y
25%
Sacramento Municipal Utility District
Farmerโ€™s Electric Cooperative
Georgetown Utility Systems
7 5 % D O N โ€™ T
C O N T R O L T H E I R
U T I L I T Y
75%
B - C O R P O R AT I O N
N E W Y O R K
T H A N K Y O U !
@johnffarrell
www.ilsr.org
C H A N G I N G
T H E R U L E S
P R O V I D I N G
T O O L S
1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E
L O C A L E C O N O M Y
H U M A N
S C A L E
L O C A L
O W N E R S H I P
D E M O C R AT I C
A U T H O R I T Y
I L L U S T R AT I N G
T H E V I S I O N

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The Coming of Energy Democracy - Midwest Renewable Energy Fair

  • 1. T H E C O M I N G O F E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y TA K I N G C H A R G E O F O U R E N E R G Y F U T U R E John Farrell Director of Energy DemocracyJune 17, 2016 Presentation to the Midwest Energy Fair
  • 2. A Q U E S T I O N
  • 3. S M A RT P H O N E I M A G E Did you get one of theseโ€ฆ
  • 4. Photo credits: Donnie Ray Jones and Billy Brown via Flickr
  • 5. D I S R U P T I O N
  • 7.
  • 8.
  • 9. A B O R I N G PA S T
  • 10.
  • 11. โ€œThere is one great advantage that must follow regulation, and that advantage is protection"
  • 12. F I R S T S TAT E O V E R S I G H T O F M O N O P O LY U T I L I T I E S ( C . 1 9 0 5 )
  • 13. T H I S C O U L D TA K E A W H I L E โ€ฆ
  • 14. โ€œWe come to work each day to do what we did the day beforeโ€
  • 15. A D I F F E R E N T E R A
  • 16. S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y 1,221 kWh 846 kWh 448 kWh Efficient neighbors All neighbors YOU Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31 Great Good More than average > You used 47% less than your efficient neighbors HOW YOUโ€™RE DOING
  • 17. S AV I N G S T H R O U G H P S Y C H O L O G Y 1,221 kWh 846 kWh 448 kWh Efficient neighbors All neighbors YOU Bill date: Jul 1 -Jul 31 Great Good More than average > You used 47% less than your efficient neighbors HOW YOUโ€™RE DOING 1-3% savings
  • 18. D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T
  • 19. D E M A N D M A N A G E M E N T 1 utility, 330 megawatts =
  • 20. When did electricity sales peak nationwide? โ€ข 2013 โ€ข 2010 โ€ข 2007 โ€ข 2005 โ€ข earlier
  • 21. 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.8 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 P E A K S TA G N A N T R E TA I L S A L E S trillion kilowatt-hours
  • 22. What is the last year fossil fuel provided > 60% of new power plant capacity? โ€ข 2013 โ€ข 2010 โ€ข 2007 โ€ข 2005 โ€ข earlier
  • 23. Percentofnewcapacity 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Fossil fuel Renewable Gigawattsadded(whiteline) 0 10 20 30 40 50 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015Q2 R I S I N G R E N E WA B L E E N E R G Y S H A R E June 10, 2015 of new power plant capacity
  • 24. Percentofnewcapacity 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% Coal Gas Wind Small Solar Big Solar U . S . P O W E R P L A N T C A PA C I T Y A D D I T I O N S (annual megawatts, AC) Sources: EIA and SEIA Gigawattsadded(whiteline) 0 10 20 30 40 50 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016Q1
  • 25. C O S T P R E S S U R E S Lower wholesale prices mean utilities with excess generation sell for less
  • 26. N O W M O V I N G FA S T
  • 27. 1 I N S TA L L E V E RY 6 0 S E C O N D S I N C O N T R A S T
  • 28. 0 7,500 15,000 22,500 30,000 $0.00 $2.50 $5.00 $7.50 $10.00 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Weighted Avg. Cost ($/W) Cumulative Capacity (MW) SOLAR INSTALLS DRIVE RAPID PRICE DECLINE
  • 29. B AT T E R I E S E V E RY W H E R E
  • 30. U N P R E C E D E N T E D P O W E R Software allows many iterations
  • 31. 2007 2008 2011 2012 2013 2013 2014 20142009 2010
  • 32. A W H O L E N E W W O R L D
  • 34. P E R C E N T O F H O U S E H O L D S W I T H S O L A R 15%
  • 35.
  • 37. R . I . P.
  • 38. U N P R E C E D E N T E D O P P O R T U N I T Y
  • 39. $ 3 6 0 B I L L I O N
  • 40. 23% 49% All buildings Source: http://www.nrel.gov/docs/fy16osti/65298.pdf R O O F T O P S O L A R P O T E N T I A L 2 0 1 6 POTENTIAL PERCENT OF POWER FROM LOCAL ROOFTOP SOLAR Over 50% 40 to 50% 25 to 40% 11 to 25% 2008 data 40-50% 25-40% Over 50% Over 50% 25-40% 40%
  • 41. 53% used on-site S O L A R A L O N E S O L A R + E V + B AT T E RY + S M A RT C O N T R O L S 89% used on-site
  • 42. B I G B E N E F I T S
  • 43. R E N E WA B L E B E N E F I T S 0 3 6 9 12 15 Jan-2002 Jan-2004 Jan-2006 Jan-2008 Jan-2010 Jan-2012 Jan-2014 Natural Gas Price Wind and Sun Price
  • 44. D I S T R I B U T E D B E N E F I T S Solar on Littlestown Hospital D I S P E R S I N G 1 - M W S O L A R P L A N T S R E D U C E S I N T E G R AT I O N C O S T S 0 1 2 3 4 1 solar project 5 solar projects 25 solar projects 0.3ยข 1.1ยข 3.9ยข cents per kilowatt-hour Credit: USDA
  • 45. L O C A L E C O N O M I C B E N E F I T S 1 megawatt $2.5 million 20 jobs Source: ILSR, 2014 $5.4 million in energy savings
  • 46. How Green Energy Farmers busted the barriers: Formed several, unrelated LLCs with only Iowa owners. State regulation Pass-through to individuals For a limited time, the Production Tax Credit was available as a cash grant, more easily used by ordinary investors. Sold to the utility Electricity was sold via a power purchase agreement to the utility.
  • 47. C O M M U N I T Y- O W N E D
  • 48. O L D R U L E S
  • 49. U T I L I T Y R U L E S A R E A N T I Q U E
  • 50. A Q U E S T I O N What are some rules weโ€™ve already adopted?
  • 51.
  • 52.
  • 53. Timeline of State Renewable Energy Standards 1983 1991 19991998199719961994 NE NJ TX NV NM WACA DE CT MT DCMD HI MN MN WIIA IA VT PA YEAR UPDATED Sources: C2ES, DSIRE YEAR ADOPTED 2000 2001 2002 20062005 OR NC NH AZ MN NV NY RI CO NM NJ (30 total) 2003 20102004 200920082007 MA MI MO OH IL KS WI CT PA NM NV MN CT DE CA AZ TX NV CO CT CO CA WI NJ HI CT NJ TX PA NM NJ MN ME MD MD MA DE DC NV MN ME IL HI DC MA IL DE CO RI OR NY NJ MD
  • 54.
  • 55. Timeline of State Energy Efficiency Standards 1999 2000 20082007200620052004 CA CO CT HI IL MD MI MN NV NM NY OH*NC PA PA RITX TX VT WA YEAR UPDATED Source: ACEEE, 2014, http://bit.ly/eers-timeline YEAR ADOPTED 2009 2010 2011 201420132012 IA ME MA OR CA HI NV AZ AR WI CT NM (25 total) * โ€œpausedโ€ in 2013
  • 56.
  • 57. N E W R U L E S
  • 58. E N E R G Y D E M O C R A C Y I N A C T I O N GRID AS COMMONS = super efficient buildings A solution that New York is pursuing
  • 59. C O N E D
  • 60. T R A N S PA R E N T P R I C I N G Day NightNight
  • 61. -6% T R A N S PA R E N T P R I C I N G Peak energy use PECO, 2015
  • 62. The utility adds a monthly assessment to the customerโ€™s bill to pay for energy savings improvements, with the savings greater than the monthly cost. A utility customer signs up for better insulation, a rooftop solar array, or a share of solar on a nearby building. 1 2 M A K I N G C L E A N E N E R G Y E A S I E R T H A N A C R E D I T C A R D S W I P E F I N A N C I N G : O N - B I L L R E PAY M E N T
  • 63. H O W D O W E C H A N G E ?
  • 64. 2 5 % C O N T R O L T H E I R U T I L I T Y 25% Sacramento Municipal Utility District Farmerโ€™s Electric Cooperative Georgetown Utility Systems
  • 65. 7 5 % D O N โ€™ T C O N T R O L T H E I R U T I L I T Y 75%
  • 66. B - C O R P O R AT I O N
  • 67. N E W Y O R K
  • 68.
  • 69. T H A N K Y O U ! @johnffarrell www.ilsr.org C H A N G I N G T H E R U L E S P R O V I D I N G T O O L S 1 0 0 % R E N E WA B L E L O C A L E C O N O M Y H U M A N S C A L E L O C A L O W N E R S H I P D E M O C R AT I C A U T H O R I T Y I L L U S T R AT I N G T H E V I S I O N