Taking business opportunity through a macro to micro approach - The Mega Trends by Frost & Sullivan

1. New Mega Trends
Macro to Micro Opportunities on
Future Business, Cultures and Personal
Lives
Sarwant Singh

2. Mega Trend 1:
Urbanisation - “City
as a Customer”

3. Mega
Mega Cities Regions
Mega
Corridor Mega Slums

4. Cities, and Not Countries,
Will Drive Wealth Creation In the Future
Cities like Seoul account for 50% of the
country’s GDP; Budapest (Hungary) and
Brussels (Belgium) each for roughly 45%.
What are the Micro Implications?
High Economic Power
Hub and Spoke Business Model
Transit oriented development
New Mobility Solutions
City as a Customer

5. Siemens Focuses on “City as the Customer”
Pre- October 2011 Post-October 2011
Independent Silos Integrated Competencies into One Division
“City as the Customer”
Energy
Building Technologies
Healthcare
Smart Grid Infrastructure Rail Systems
&
Cities
Industry
OSRAM Mobility & Logistics
Low & Medium Voltage

6. Mega Trend 2:
Smart is the New
Green

8. Convergence of Technology Will Lead to
Convergence of Competition
IT Players
SAP
ST
HP
Electronics
Point of Convergence
Oracle Microsoft
Google
Cisco Alcatel-
Verizon Lucent
IBM
Senergy Energy/Infrastructure
Telecom Players O2 Players
Deutsche Eaton
Telekom Schneider Siemens
Electric General
Electric
Emerson ABB
Honeywell Johnson Controls
Rockwell Automation
Note: This is an illustration and does not show
all market players
Automation/Building Control Players

9. Mega Trend 3:
Social Trends

10. Surge in
Asian Work
Pool
Geo Gen Y
Socialization
Middle Generational
Bulge Political Shift
“She-
conomy”
Ageing Reverse
Population Brain Drain

11. Mega Trend 4:
Economic Trends

12. The Next Game Changers in 2025
Russia
$6,189
Billion
Turkey
$1,167
Poland Billion $2,601 $38,526
Billion Billion China
$2,212 $687
Billion Billion $6,235
Billion Thailand
Egypt $803
$323
Brazil Billion
Billion Vietnam
Mexico
$5,467 India $483
Billion $4,816 Billion
BRIC Nations
Billion
Philippines
Next Game Changers
$709 Indonesia
Note : The figure denotes GDP at market $654 Billion
prices. Forecasts have been made based Billion Argentina
on Real GDP growth rates South Africa

13. Mega Trend 5:
Connectivity &
Convergence

14. 80 Billion Connected Devices By 2020
10 Connected Devices for
Every Household by 2020
5 connected devices for every
user by 2020
5 billion internet users by
2020
500 devices with unique
digital IDs (Internet of things)
per square kilometre by 2020

15. Connectivity will Lead to Convergence of Products,
Technologies and Industries Technology Convergence
Industry Convergence
Product Convergence
UAV Unmanned Aerial Vehicle
V2V Vehicle to vehicle
V2H Vehicle to Home
V2I Vehicle to Infrastructure

16. Mega Trend 6:
Innovating to Zero

17. Snapshot of a “Zero Concept” World in 2020
Zero Defects Carbon Neutral
and Zero Cities
Faults
Zero Waste/
Emissions Carbon Neutral
Factories and
Zero Emails Retail Stores
Zero
Corporate
Complete
Debts
Recyclability from
Households (Cradle Zero
to Cradle Concept) Breaches of
Security
Zero
Emissions
from Cars
Zero
Accidents Zero Crime
Rates

18. Mega Trend 7:
New Business Models:
Value for Many

19. Personalization &
Customization
Nike
Personalization and
Customization
Co-Creation
Quirky .com
New Business
Models
Pay as you Fly
Unmanned
Aerial
Vehicles
One-off Experience
(Thales)
(red letter Days)

20. Free + Premium
= Freemium
“Value for Many”
Will Replace
“Value for Money”

21. Mega Trend 8:
Health, Wellness and
Wellbeing

22. The 3 Cornerstones - The Body, Mind and Soul -
Contribute To Humans Definition of Health,
Wellness and Well Being
Mood
Stress levels
Mental health
Sense of optimism
Attitude
Security
Safety
Sight / vision
Personal values Touch & feel
Personal fulfilment Smell / breathing
Self image / self Sound
actualisation
Temperature
Wellness

23. Future of Health, Wellness and Wellbeing

24. Mega Trend 9:
High Speed Rail

25. In Future, HS Rail will not only Connect Cities
and Countries but will also Connect Continents
• China : 25,000 kms by 2025 (7,431 kms in 2010)
• 2020 Trans Siberian Link: New Route 66
• Biggest Project: $68 billion California HSR
• UK project: £33 billion (by 2026)
What are the Opportunities?
• Copper-silver and copper-magnesium wires
• Steel Companies
• Construction tooling, spare parts
• Condition monitoring, security, surveillance,
• Data handling, Passenger information
systems
• High Speed Logistics
• Mergers and Acquisitions

26. From Macro to Micro: Taking Mega Trends from
Information to Strategy Implementation
To
Macro Micro
Mega Trend Analysis of Opportunities and
Selected trends that impact your
business and markets
Unmet Needs
Sub Trend Impact on Future Product/
A sub-layer of trends that has a
Technology
wide ranging impact
Impact to Your Industry
Visualising the roadmap of these
critical forces through scenario-
building and macro economic
forecasts

27. Contact Us
Sarwant Singh Archana Amarnath
Partner & Practice Director, Visionary Innovation Program Manager, Visionary Innovation Research
Research Group and Automotive & Transportation Group
(+44) 2079157843 (+44) 2079157893
sarwant.singh@frost.com aamarnath@frost.com