Why and how to look at megatrends to find new opportunities and threats, and ensure your business' future

1. Assessing the impact
of megatrends on
your company
frederic de meyer
institute for future insights
ifi.frederic@gmail.com

2. Frederic De Meyer
• founder institute for future insights
• manager market & business intelligence Cisco Europe
• Previously:
– business development manager, Eastern & Central Europe, Cisco
– senior consultant, benelux, IDC Research
– senior public relation account manager, Shandwick PLC
– Conference director ICT & telecommunications, education companies
EFE and IIR
Joost Drieman
• Owner Marix International NV
• Director Market & Business Intelligence Cisco Europe
• Visiting lecturer for strategic intelligence at Vlerick Business
School (BE), Nyenrode University (NL), Cox Business School (USA)
• Previously:
– VP Marketing & Business DevelopmentTelindus
– Expert/reviewer at the European Community (DG information Society)
– Director Business Development E-commerce for EMEA Compaq
– Director of Tandem’s Virtual Reality Competency Centre Tandem Computers
– Director Interactive Initiatives UB Networks

3. Agenda
• Introduction to Megatrends exercise
 Why you need to look at megatrends?
 What exactly is a megatrend?
 Where does this exercise fit in your corporate
strategy?
 Examples of how companies benefit from or are
affected by megatrends
 Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends,
how to make sure your company is prepared?
 How to identify Megatrends
 How to select Megatrends to discuss
 How to organize and run Think Tank sessions
 How to draw strategic conclusions
 How to communicate the findings
 Final advice
• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

4. Will your company survive the next 20 years?

5. What happens if you don’t look ahead?
Dog
Cat

6. How looking at Megatrends can benefit companies
• Peter Bisson, Director McKinsey:
– Capture market opportunities,
– Test risks, and
– Spur innovation.
• Copenhagen Institute of Future studies:
– Basis for innovation process
– Basis for scenario planning
– Basis for Early Warning Systems
• Matthias Horx, Futurist:
The curve of pursuit
– Better decision making in strategic management.
– Quicker and more precise innovation generation

7. Agenda
• Introduction to Megatrends exercise
 Why your company needs to look at megatrends?
 What exactly is a megatrend?
 Where does this exercise fit in your corporate
strategy?
 Examples of how companies benefit from or are
affected by megatrends
 Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends,
how to make sure your company is prepared?
 How to select Megatrends to discuss
 How to organize and run Thiink Tank sessions
 How to draw strategic conclusions
 How to communicate the findings
 Summary advise
• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

8. What exactly IS a megatrend?
• Long-lasting
• Amplifying
• Disruptive shift
• Impacts major part of society
• ... Looks inevitable (not prone to fashion, taste, mood changes)
• Not an event

9. Agenda
• Introduction to Megatrends exercise
 Why your company needs to look at megatrends?
 What exactly is a megatrend?
 Where does this exercise fit in your corporate
strategy?
 Examples of how companies benefit from or are
affected by megatrends
 Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends,
how to make sure your company is prepared?
 How to select Megatrends to discuss
 How to organize and run Think Tank sessions
 How to draw strategic conclusions
 How to communicate the findings
 Summary advise
• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

10. Which role should the megatrend exercise
play in your corporate strategy?
Lobby;
Mood;
Adoption;
Regulation Opportunities
-go-to-market innovation;
- new products/services
Fashion Corporate
Tastes
Communities Trends Execution
Threats
Opinion makers (tactics) -miss the boat;
Mood
- existing competion
Predictions
Black Swans Opportunities
- business Model Innovation;
Environment - gain efficiency,
Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness
Regulations Megatrends Strategy
Macro-economy
Political shifts Threats
-irrelevance;
- new competitors
Scenario
Planning
Frederic De Meyer

11. ...but be careful with predictions...
"Airplanes are interesting toys but of no
military value."
- Marshal Ferdinand Foch, Professor of
Strategy, Ecole Superieure de Guerre.
Lobby;
Opportunities
Mood; Corpor -go-to-market
Adoption; “I think there is a world market for maybe five
Fashion Regulatio
n
ate innovation;
computers”
Tastes - new
Communit Executi - Thomas Watson (IBM) 1943
products/services
ies Trends on
Threats
Opinion -miss the boat;
makers (tactics - existing don’t like their sound, and guitar music is
“We
Environme
Mood competion
nt
Predictions ) Opportunities way out”
on the
- business Model Recording Co. rejecting The Beatles,
- Decca
Demograp Black
Swans
Corpor Innovation;
hic shifts
ate 1962
Regulation Megatr - gain efficiency,
competitiveness
s
ends Strateg Threats
Macro- “Everything that can be invented has been
-irrelevance;
economy y invented”
- new
Political competitors
shifts Scenar - Charles H. Duell, Commissioner US Office of
Patents, 1899
io
Planni “640k ought to be enough for anybody”
ng – Bill Gates, 1981
“There is no reason why someone would want
a computer in their home”
– Ken Olson, founder Digital Equipment, 1977
Frederic De Meyer

12. What the megatrend exercise is all about
Lobby;
Mood;
Adoption;
Regulation Opportunities
-go-to-market innovation;
- new products/services
Fashion Corporate
Tastes
Communities Trends Execution
Threats
Opinion makers (tactics) -miss the boat;
Mood
- existing competion
Black Swans
Opportunities
Opportunities
- business Model Innovation;
- business Model Innovation;
Environment
Environment - gain efficiency,
- gain efficiency,
Demographic shifts
Demographic shifts Corporate competitiveness
competitiveness
Regulations
Regulations Megatrends Strategy
Macro-economy
Macro-economy
Political shifts
Political shifts Threats
-irrelevance;
- new competitors
Scenario
Planning
Frederic De Meyer

13. Agenda
• Introduction to Megatrends exercise
 Why your company needs to look at megatrends?
 What exactly is a megatrend?
 Where does this exercise fit in your corporate
strategy?
 Examples of how companies benefit from or are
affected by megatrends
 Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends,
how to make sure your company is prepared?
 How to select Megatrends to discuss
 How to organize and run Think Tank sessions
 How to draw strategic conclusions
 How to communicate the findings
 Summary advise
• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

14. Companies that didn’t see new trends coming...
• Trend: Water shortage, corporate citizenship
– Coca Cola
From 2003-2006 Coca Cola continued water spill and
mismanagement in Indian regions subject to water
shortage. This resulted in boycott and negative
publicity. Since they have re-worked processes and
now receive annual price for Social Responsibility.
• Trend: Responsible buying
– General Motor
General Motors continued investing in the gass-
devoring Hummer while consumers shifted to
cheaper, more ecological spending. This resulted in a
pummeting sales for GM, negative image and
publicity.

15. Companies that grew new opportunities based
on megatrends
• Trend: Rising middle class in Emerging
– Tata Nano Car
Benefit from rising middle-class in India who want
cheap, no-thrill car to replace motorbikes and obtain
‘car-driver’ status
• Trend: Ageing population, talent scarcety
– Cisco Health Presence
Less mobile but growing elderly population will need
remote access to health. Less young people will lead
to talent scarcity, remote doctors could be located
anywhere in the world.
• Trend: Mass customization, Do it Yourself
– Nike and many many others
Offer multiple customization possibilities

16. Companies that built new business models
based on megatrends...
• Trend: Global Grid, desintermediation,
crowdsourcing
– Peer-to-peer lending
Companies like Prosper and Zopa organize peer-to-
peer lending, making the task of a bank redundant.
– Fan Funding
Companies like Sellaband and Sonicangels enables
anounymous funding of musicians for a share of
potential revenue, making the intervention of music
label companies redundant.
– Crowdsourcing
Marketing, advertisement, innovation, problem
solving, consumer-generated design, ...
Crowdsourcing moves into all segments

17. Companies that shaped their organization and
vision to megatrends
• Trend: Sustainability, Ageing Polulation,
Urbanization, Rising middle-class, ...
– Siemens
Communication on how each of Siemens’ Business
Unit is responding to a specific megatrend challenge...
Very effective corporate branding.
• Trend: Ageing Polulation
– GlaxoSmithKline
Vision statement completely aligned with Ageing
Population trend
‘Do more, feel better, live longer’

18. Agenda
• Introduction to Megatrends exercise
 Why your company needs to look at megatrends?
 What exactly is a megatrend?
 Where does this exercise fit in your corporate
strategy?
 Examples of how companies benefit from or are
affected by megatrends
 Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends,
how to make sure your company is prepared?
 How to select Megatrends to discuss
 How to organize and run Think Tank sessions
 How to draw strategic conclusions
 How to communicate the findings
 Summary advise
• In-depth discussion on 15 Megatrends

19. Megatrends process
Meg atrends
Meg
1. Identification
of Megatrends
Drivers Antitrends?
2. Discuss
Subtrends Consequences
Inhibitors
Megatrends in Think Likeliness Impact on Impact on
Timeline company ecosystem
Tanks
3. Build summary
conclusions and
recommendations
5. Communicate
results internally
and externally

20. Identification of Megatrends
• Invite employees to submit
• Internal survey
• Brainstorming
• External consultants
• External individuals
– Linked in
– Crowdsourcing
• Research

21. Research option: Researching External
experts’ assessment of megatrends
Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson LinkedIn
megatrends for Future Studies 'Econoshocks'
Cultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technology
society will lead to (resources) (power shift)
conflict
Ageing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability
product and services imperative
Scarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer power
resources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear)
impact on health
Individualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East
move (mobility - job & informed and
geographical) empowered)
Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography
convergence) responsibility vs globalization)
Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning
fades
More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources
Technology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexity
parts of daily life
Global transport will ever Network organizing
increase (network-centricity)
Urbanization

22. Analyzing 338 responses to a LinkedIn
question about Megatrends
(Question asked by Andreas von
der Heydt, director at L’Oréal)
26.8% technology (collaboration, increased efficiency, cloud/virtualization, brainstorming (social media), smart
cities3D, nanotechs, mobile, augmented reality, new user interfaces, do it yourself, SaaS
13.7% sustainability, corporate responsibility, green tech
12.5% consumer power (24/7, consumerism, meaning, less is more, buy local, customization, online retail, transparancy
10.1% shift to East (innovation outside of US, decline of West, rising middle class, decline of Dollar
9.5% demography
4.8% meaning (return of ideology, increasing empathy
4.8% scarcity of resources (water
4.8% increasing complexity
3.0% online learning, for-profit universities
1.8% cost cutting
1.8% risk aversion
1.8% simplicity
1.8% Innovation, entrepreneurship
1.2% gov 2.0
0.6% insourcing
0.6% simplexity
0.6% Wealth/poverty

23. External experts’ assessment of megatrends
– group in themes
Ernst & Young NL CSIRO Compenhagen Institute Geert Noels -author of IBM McKinsey Richard Watson - author LinkedIn
megatrends for Future Studies 'Econoshocks' of 'Future Files'
Cultural / multiethnic More from less Ageing population Demography Globalization The great rebalancing Ageing Population technology
society will lead to (resources) (power shift)
conflict
Ageing population Personalisation of Globalization Shift to East demographics The productivity Powershift East sustainability
product and services imperative
Scarcety of natural Divergent demographics Technological New economy / tech Technological progress The Global Grid Global Connectiviy (> consumer power
resources between rich and poor + development (connectedness) fear)
impact on health
Individualization More people on the Prosperity End of fossile fuels Omni consumer (more Pricing the planet (green) GRIN Technology shift to East
move (mobility - job & informed and
geographical) empowered)
Climate iWorld (digital & natural Individualization New capitalism corporate social The Market State (govts Environment demography
convergence) responsibility vs globalization)
Islam grows, Christianity Commercialization Green economy political uncertainty meaning
fades
More wealthy countries Health & environment scarcity of resources
Technology impacts more Acceleration increasing complexity
parts of daily life
Global transport will ever Network organizing
increase (network-centricity)
Urbanization

24. External experts’ assessment of megatrends
- cleaned up major trends
Demographics: Geopolitics:
- Ageing Population - Globalization 3.0
- Global mobility - Global Grid
- Generation Y - Rising power of Emerging
- Urbanization - Rising middle class
- Gap rich-poor - The Market State
Consumer trends:
-Responsible buying
- Mass customization
Environment: Technology:
- Global warming -Pervasive Technology (IoT)
- Scarcety of resources - Augmented reality
- Energy dependency - Social Networks
- Green technologies - GRIN Technologies
- Radical Transparency - Tech customization
TIP: These are not the only Megatrends... Keep an eye on megatrends constantly !

25. Megatrends process
Meg atrends
Meg
1. Identification
of Megatrends
Drivers Antitrends?
2. Discuss
Subtrends Consequences
Inhibitors
Megatrends in Likeliness Impact on Impact on
Timeline company ecosystem
Think Tanks
3. Build summary
conclusions and
recommendations
5. Communicate
results internally
and externally

26. Megatrends exercise - Think Tank discussions
22 megatrends, 5 Discussed in 5 Think Discussion points:
themes Tanks
Demographics: (+/- 25 participants)
- Ageing Population
- Global mobility
- Generation Y
- Urbanization
- Gap rich-poor
Subtrends
Geopolitics:
- Globalization 3.0
- Global Grid Consequences
- Rising power of Emerging
- Rising middle class
- The Market State Drivers
Inhibitors
Environment:
- Global warming Likeliness
- Scarcety of resources Timeline
- Energy dependency
- Green technologies
- Radical Transparency
Impact on
company
Technology:
-Pervasive Technology (IoT) Impact on
- Augmented reality ecosystem
- Social Networks
- GRIN Technologies Antitrends?
- Tech customization
Consumer trends:
-Responsible buying
- Mass customization

27. To keep in mind when organizing the Think Tanks
• Invite people from different backgrounds / interests
• Not necessarily specialists –discussion is about impact on company
• +/- 2 hour discussion per ‘theme’ (~Think Tank)
• Send prior briefing (‘fact sheets’)
• Take public notes of the discussion, this will stimulate further ideas
• Use a fixed template
• Ideally 4-5 people per Think Tank.

28. Tip 1: send previous briefing ‘fact sheets’ with
thought-provoking questions...

29. Tip 2: also discuss potential anti-trends, they
might constitute specific opportunities
CSIRO - MEGATRENDS Bridge8 - ANTITRENDS
More from less Less from less
Limited resources and increasing People adapt their needs to diminshing
population will drive need for more resources
efficiency in resource management
A personal touch Reducing choice
Drive for ever increasing personalisation People look for ways to simplify decision
of services and goods taking
Divergent demographics Growing global health
OECD countries ageing and unhealthy, Global health improvement due to science
developing nations boom breakthrough, improved fertility rate
More people on the move Fullfillment
Geographic and functional mobility, Young people will build diverse
urbanization experience leading to single goal,
technology will make location obsolete
iWorld Opting out
Digital and natural world get mixed. More people will chose to deconnect
Internet of things

30. Tip 3: use ‘cue cards’ to open up the minds at
the start of each megatrend discussion

31. Megatrends process
Meg atrends
Meg
1. Identification
of Megatrends
Drivers Antitrends?
2. Discuss
Subtrends Consequences
Inhibitors
Megatrends in Think Likeliness Impact on Impact on
Timeline company ecosystem
Tanks
3. Build summary
conclusions and
recommendations
4. Communicate
results internally
and externally

32. Trends segmentation according to timeline, to
know which ones to act on...
High
Impact on company
Low
Already happening Recent/nacent Future
Frederic De Meyer timeline

33. Trends segmentation based on which action to
take
manageble
Influence Action
Aware Monitor
determined
context core
Frederic De Meyer

34. ‘Heat maps’ very effective way to visualize
threats for customers
Weight
Trend 1 Trend 2 Trend 3 Trend 4 Trend [...] (%
T urno v e r)
Customer segment 1 -10 -6 -5 0 -3 60%
Customer segment 2 2 8 0 2 0 20%
Customer segment 3 8 -2 3 -8 -3 10%
Customer segment 4 -7 0 0 0 2 5%
Customer segment [...] 7 6 2 1 10 5%
F re de ric D e M e ye r

35. Where to apply new ideas from megatrends?
New business models
Business
Model
New ways of influencing
Product
portfolio New communication tools
R&D New products, services
Customer New markets, geo’s
segments
New skills
Ecosystem
New channels, Route-to-Market
Marketing
New ways of financing
Human
Resources
New suppliers
Go-to-Market
New organization
Production New vision / mission
New branding

36. Megatrends process
Meg atrends
Meg
1. Identification
of Megatrends
Drivers Antitrends?
2. Discuss
Subtrends Consequences
Inhibitors
Megatrends in Think Likeliness Impact on Impact on
Timeline company ecosystem
Tanks
3. Build summary
conclusions and
recommendations
4. Communicate
results internally
and externally

37. Maximizing impact of the Megatrend exercise
Available to: Contains: Aim: Format:
Megatrends document: every employee 'Fact sheets' prepared for discussions, Alignment of vision, buy-in for Doc + discuss
with some high level outcome of decisions
discussions
Executive Briefing: top management Short document with key Influence decisions, ideas for business Doc + discuss
opportunities and threats (not in other model innovation
docs)
Partner document: partners and channels Fact sheets of those trends that are Partner loyalty, joint business planning Doc + discuss
impacting channels
Packs per customer segment: vertical sales teams Fact sheets of those trends that are Customer intimacy, marketing & sales Doc + discuss
impacting specific customers arguments
Packs per product segment: productmanagers, Fact sheets of those trends that are Better market positioning, marketing, Doc + discuss
business units, R&D impacting specific product or services sales messages
High level summary: External world Your company's vision on Megatrends Feedback from people outside of Presentations
industry, new ideas and insights
Assessing the impact
of Megatrends on
your company
frederic de meyer

38. Agenda
• Introduction to Megatrends exercise
 Why your company needs to look at megatrends?
 What exactly is a megatrend?
 Where does this exercise fit in your corporate
strategy?
 Examples of how companies benefit from or are
affected by megatrends
 Adapting your corporate strategy to the Megatrends,
how to make sure your company is prepared?
 How to select Megatrends to discuss
 How to organize and run Think Tank sessions
 How to draw strategic conclusions
 How to communicate the findings
 Summary advise

39. Some final piece of advise...
• Do the exercise yourself (don’t rely on external view only);
• Involve people from different background;
• Stay open-minded, even when link with current business is not evident;
• Structure the discussions;
• Consider anti-trends;
• ... have fun !

40. frederic de meyer
institute for future insights
ifi.frederic@gmail.com
(BE)+32 471 63 95 35
www.fredericdemeyer.com
twitter: @fdemeyer
Thank you!