Presentation given at RAMS 2013
Three-phase inverters are physically large, complex and expensive elements of major solar power generation systems. The inverter converts DC power created by the photovoltaic (PV) panels to AC power suitable for adding to the power grid.
The inverters’ reliability testing is a complex task and relies on reliability block diagrams (RBD), vendor and field data, plus selecting accelerated life tests (ALT) based on critical elements of the product.
This paper illustrates a case study that developed an RBD, used field and vendor data, and includes the design and use of two ALTs. The result is a working framework or model that provides a reasonable estimate of the expected lifetime performance of the inverter. While any project similar to this, is always a work in progress, the examination of the decisions and inputs for the model proves valuable for the continued improvement of the model and resulting life predictions. This project provides an excellent real life example of reliability estimation having a multitude of constraints including: sample size, test duration, and field data, thus having to rely on all sources of available data starting from field and vendor data to theoretical component reliability calculations, ALT plan execution, failure analysis, and finally summarizing the results using RBD to estimate product expected lifetime. At the time of writing this paper, based on completion of system level ALT, an availability of 99.97% is valid over a 10 year period according to southern Ontario weather as the main installation base. This will be revisited once subsystem ALT is completed.
21. Reliability Maturity Matrix
ATTRIBUTES Stage 1: Stage 2: Awakening Stage 3: Stage 4: Wisdom Stage 5: Certainty
Uncertainty Enlightenment
1.1 Understanding No comprehension of Recognizing that reliability Still learning more about reliability Participating. Understand absolutes of Consider reliability management an essential
reliability as a management may be of value but not management. Becoming supportive reliability management. Recognize their part of company system.
& Attitude management tool. Tend willing to provide money or time to and helpful. personal role in continuing emphasis.
to blame engineering make it happen.
for ‘reliability problems’
1.2 Status Reliability is hidden in A stronger reliability leader appointed, Reliability manager reports to top Reliability manager is an officer of Reliability manager is on board of directors.
1. Management
manufacturing or yet main emphasis is still on an audit management, with role in management company; effective status reporting and Prevention is main concern. Reliability is a
engineering of initial product functionality. of division. preventive action. Involved with consumer thought leader.
departments. Reliability Reliability testing still not performed. affairs.
testing probably not
done. Emphasis on
initial product
functionality.
1.3 Measured Cost Not done other than Direct warranty expenses only Warranty, corrective action materials Customer and lifecycle unreliability costs Lifecycle cost reduction done through product
anecdotally and engineering costs monitored determined and tracked reliability improvements
of Unreliability
2.1 Requirement Informal or nonexistent Basic requirements based on Requirements include environment and Plans are tailored for each project and Contingency planning occurs. Decisions
2. Product
customer requirements or standards. use profiles. Some apportionment. projected risks. Use of distributions for based on business or market considerations.
& Planning
Reqts.
Plans have required activities. Plans have more details with regular environmental and use conditions. Part of strategic business plan.
reviews.
2.2 Training & Informally available to Select individuals trained in concepts Training for engineering community for Reliability and statistics courses tailored New technologies and reliability tools tracked
some, if requested and data analysis. Available training key reliability related processes. for design and manufacturing engineers. and training adjusted to accommodate.
Development for design engineers Managers trained on reliability and Senior managers trained on reliability Reliability training actively supported by top
lifecycle impact. impact on business. management.
3.1 Analysis Nonexistent or solely Point estimates and reliance on Formal use of FMEA. Field data analysis Predictions are expressed as distributions Lifecycle cost considered during design.
based on handbook parts count methods. Basic of similar products used to adjust and include confidence limits. Stress and damage models created and
3. Engineering
manufacturing issues identification and listing of failure predictions. Design changes cause re- Environmental and use conditions used for used. Extensive risk analysis for new
modes and impact evaluation of product reliability simulation and testing. technologies.
3.2 Testing Primarily functional Generic test plan exists with reliability Detailed reliability test plan with sample Accelerated tests and supporting models Test results used to update component stress
testing only to meet customer or size and confidence limits. Results used used. Testing to failure or destruct limits and damage models. New technologies
standards specifications for design changes & vendor evals. conducted characterized.
3.3 Supply Chain Selection based on Approved vendor list maintained. Assessments and audit results used to Vendor selection includes analysis of Changes in environment, use profile, or
function and price Audits based on issues or with critical update AVL. Field data and failure vendor’s reliability data. Suppliers conduct design, trigger vendor reliability assessment.
Management parts. Qualification primarily based on analysis related to specific vendors. assessments and audit of their suppliers. Component parameters and reliability
vendor datasheets. monitored for stability
4.1 Failure Data Failures during function Pareto analysis of field return and Root cause analysis used to update Focus is on failure mechanisms. Failure Customer satisfaction relationship to product
testing may be internal testing. Failure analysis relies AVL and prediction models. Summary distribution models updated based on failures is understood. Use of prognostic
Tracking & addressed on vendor support. of analysis results disseminated. failure data methods to forestall failure.
Analysis
4.2 Validation & Informal and based on Basic verification that plans are Supplier agreements around reliability Internal reviews of reliability processes Reliability predictions match observed field
4. Feedback
individuals rather than followed. Field failure data regularly monitored. Failure modes regularly and tools. Failure mechanisms regularly reliability.
Verification
Process
process reported. monitored. monitored and used to update models and
test methods
4.3 Reliability Nonexistent or informal Design and process change followed. Effectiveness of corrective actions Identified failure mechanisms addressed New technologies evaluated and adopted to
Corrective action process includes tracked over time. Identified failure in all products. Advanced modeling improve reliability. Design rules updated
Improvements internal and vendor engagement. modes addressed in other product. techniques explored and adopted. Formal based on field failure analysis.
Improvement opportunities identified as and effective lessons learned process
environment and use profiles change. exists.
5. Prevailing “We don’t know why we “Is it absolutely necessary to always “Through commitment and reliability “Failure prevention is a routine part of our “We know why we do not have problems with
have problems with have problems with reliability?” improvement we are identifying and operation.” reliability.”
Sentiment reliability” resolving our problems.”
37. Reliability Maturity Matrix - start
ATTRIBUTES Stage 1: Stage 2: Awakening Stage 3: Stage 4: Wisdom Stage 5: Certainty
Uncertainty Enlightenment
1.1 Understanding No comprehension of Recognizing that reliability Still learning more about reliability Participating. Understand absolutes of Consider reliability management an essential
reliability as a management may be of value but not management. Becoming supportive reliability management. Recognize their part of company system.
& Attitude management tool. Tend willing to provide money or time to and helpful. personal role in continuing emphasis.
to blame engineering make it happen.
for ‘reliability problems’
1.2 Status Reliability is hidden in A stronger reliability leader appointed, Reliability manager reports to top Reliability manager is an officer of Reliability manager is on board of directors.
1. Management
manufacturing or yet main emphasis is still on an audit management, with role in management company; effective status reporting and Prevention is main concern. Reliability is a
engineering of initial product functionality. of division. preventive action. Involved with consumer thought leader.
departments. Reliability Reliability testing still not performed. affairs.
testing probably not
done. Emphasis on
initial product
functionality.
1.3 Measured Cost Not done other than Direct warranty expenses only Warranty, corrective action materials Customer and lifecycle unreliability costs Lifecycle cost reduction done through product
anecdotally and engineering costs monitored determined and tracked reliability improvements
of Unreliability
2.1 Requirement Informal or nonexistent Basic requirements based on Requirements include environment and Plans are tailored for each project and Contingency planning occurs. Decisions
2. Product
customer requirements or standards. use profiles. Some apportionment. projected risks. Use of distributions for based on business or market considerations.
& Planning
Reqts.
Plans have required activities. Plans have more details with regular environmental and use conditions. Part of strategic business plan.
reviews.
2.2 Training & Informally available to Select individuals trained in concepts Training for engineering community for Reliability and statistics courses tailored New technologies and reliability tools tracked
some, if requested and data analysis. Available training key reliability related processes. for design and manufacturing engineers. and training adjusted to accommodate.
Development for design engineers Managers trained on reliability and Senior managers trained on reliability Reliability training actively supported by top
lifecycle impact. impact on business. management.
3.1 Analysis Nonexistent or solely Point estimates and reliance on Formal use of FMEA. Field data analysis Predictions are expressed as distributions Lifecycle cost considered during design.
based on handbook parts count methods. Basic of similar products used to adjust and include confidence limits. Stress and damage models created and
3. Engineering
manufacturing issues identification and listing of failure predictions. Design changes cause re- Environmental and use conditions used for used. Extensive risk analysis for new
modes and impact evaluation of product reliability simulation and testing. technologies.
3.2 Testing Primarily functional Generic test plan exists with reliability Detailed reliability test plan with sample Accelerated tests and supporting models Test results used to update component stress
testing only to meet customer or size and confidence limits. Results used used. Testing to failure or destruct limits and damage models. New technologies
standards specifications for design changes & vendor evals. conducted characterized.
3.3 Supply Chain Selection based on Approved vendor list maintained. Assessments and audit results used to Vendor selection includes analysis of Changes in environment, use profile, or
function and price Audits based on issues or with critical update AVL. Field data and failure vendor’s reliability data. Suppliers conduct design, trigger vendor reliability assessment.
Management parts. Qualification primarily based on analysis related to specific vendors. assessments and audit of their suppliers. Component parameters and reliability
vendor datasheets. monitored for stability
4.1 Failure Data Failures during function Pareto analysis of field return and Root cause analysis used to update Focus is on failure mechanisms. Failure Customer satisfaction relationship to product
testing may be internal testing. Failure analysis relies AVL and prediction models. Summary distribution models updated based on failures is understood. Use of prognostic
Tracking & addressed on vendor support. of analysis results disseminated. failure data methods to forestall failure.
Analysis
4.2 Validation & Informal and based on Basic verification that plans are Supplier agreements around reliability Internal reviews of reliability processes Reliability predictions match observed field
4. Feedback
individuals rather than followed. Field failure data regularly monitored. Failure modes regularly and tools. Failure mechanisms regularly reliability.
Verification
Process
process reported. monitored. monitored and used to update models and
test methods
4.3 Reliability Nonexistent or informal Design and process change followed. Effectiveness of corrective actions Identified failure mechanisms addressed New technologies evaluated and adopted to
Corrective action process includes tracked over time. Identified failure in all products. Advanced modeling improve reliability. Design rules updated
Improvements internal and vendor engagement. modes addressed in other product. techniques explored and adopted. Formal based on field failure analysis.
Improvement opportunities identified as and effective lessons learned process
environment and use profiles change. exists.
5. Prevailing “We don’t know why we “Is it absolutely necessary to always “Through commitment and reliability “Failure prevention is a routine part of our “We know why we do not have problems with
have problems with have problems with reliability?” improvement we are identifying and operation.” reliability.”
Sentiment reliability” resolving our problems.”
38. Reliability Maturity Matrix - start
ATTRIBUTES Stage 1: Stage 2: Awakening Stage 3: Stage 4: Wisdom Stage 5: Certainty
Uncertainty Enlightenment
1.1 Understanding No comprehension of Recognizing that reliability Still learning more about reliability Participating. Understand absolutes of Consider reliability management an essential
reliability as a management may be of value but not management. Becoming supportive reliability management. Recognize their part of company system.
& Attitude management tool. Tend willing to provide money or time to and helpful. personal role in continuing emphasis.
to blame engineering make it happen.
for ‘reliability problems’
1.2 Status Reliability is hidden in A stronger reliability leader appointed, Reliability manager reports to top Reliability manager is an officer of Reliability manager is on board of directors.
1. Management
manufacturing or yet main emphasis is still on an audit management, with role in management company; effective status reporting and Prevention is main concern. Reliability is a
engineering of initial product functionality. of division. preventive action. Involved with consumer thought leader.
departments. Reliability Reliability testing still not performed. affairs.
testing probably not
done. Emphasis on
initial product
functionality.
1.3 Measured Cost Not done other than Direct warranty expenses only Warranty, corrective action materials Customer and lifecycle unreliability costs Lifecycle cost reduction done through product
anecdotally and engineering costs monitored determined and tracked reliability improvements
of Unreliability
2.1 Requirement Informal or nonexistent Basic requirements based on Requirements include environment and Plans are tailored for each project and Contingency planning occurs. Decisions
2. Product
customer requirements or standards. use profiles. Some apportionment. projected risks. Use of distributions for based on business or market considerations.
& Planning
Reqts.
Plans have required activities. Plans have more details with regular environmental and use conditions. Part of strategic business plan.
reviews.
2.2 Training & Informally available to Select individuals trained in concepts Training for engineering community for Reliability and statistics courses tailored New technologies and reliability tools tracked
some, if requested and data analysis. Available training key reliability related processes. for design and manufacturing engineers. and training adjusted to accommodate.
Development for design engineers Managers trained on reliability and Senior managers trained on reliability Reliability training actively supported by top
lifecycle impact. impact on business. management.
3.1 Analysis Nonexistent or solely Point estimates and reliance on Formal use of FMEA. Field data analysis Predictions are expressed as distributions Lifecycle cost considered during design.
based on handbook parts count methods. Basic of similar products used to adjust and include confidence limits. Stress and damage models created and
3. Engineering
manufacturing issues identification and listing of failure predictions. Design changes cause re- Environmental and use conditions used for used. Extensive risk analysis for new
modes and impact evaluation of product reliability simulation and testing. technologies.
3.2 Testing Primarily functional Generic test plan exists with reliability Detailed reliability test plan with sample Accelerated tests and supporting models Test results used to update component stress
testing only to meet customer or size and confidence limits. Results used used. Testing to failure or destruct limits and damage models. New technologies
standards specifications for design changes & vendor evals. conducted characterized.
3.3 Supply Chain Selection based on Approved vendor list maintained. Assessments and audit results used to Vendor selection includes analysis of Changes in environment, use profile, or
function and price Audits based on issues or with critical update AVL. Field data and failure vendor’s reliability data. Suppliers conduct design, trigger vendor reliability assessment.
Management parts. Qualification primarily based on analysis related to specific vendors. assessments and audit of their suppliers. Component parameters and reliability
vendor datasheets. monitored for stability
4.1 Failure Data Failures during function Pareto analysis of field return and Root cause analysis used to update Focus is on failure mechanisms. Failure Customer satisfaction relationship to product
testing may be internal testing. Failure analysis relies AVL and prediction models. Summary distribution models updated based on failures is understood. Use of prognostic
Tracking & addressed on vendor support. of analysis results disseminated. failure data methods to forestall failure.
Analysis
4.2 Validation & Informal and based on Basic verification that plans are Supplier agreements around reliability Internal reviews of reliability processes Reliability predictions match observed field
4. Feedback
individuals rather than followed. Field failure data regularly monitored. Failure modes regularly and tools. Failure mechanisms regularly reliability.
Verification
Process
process reported. monitored. monitored and used to update models and
test methods
4.3 Reliability Nonexistent or informal Design and process change followed. Effectiveness of corrective actions Identified failure mechanisms addressed New technologies evaluated and adopted to
Corrective action process includes tracked over time. Identified failure in all products. Advanced modeling improve reliability. Design rules updated
Improvements internal and vendor engagement. modes addressed in other product. techniques explored and adopted. Formal based on field failure analysis.
Improvement opportunities identified as and effective lessons learned process
environment and use profiles change. exists.
5. Prevailing “We don’t know why we “Is it absolutely necessary to always “Through commitment and reliability “Failure prevention is a routine part of our “We know why we do not have problems with
have problems with have problems with reliability?” improvement we are identifying and operation.” reliability.”
Sentiment reliability” resolving our problems.”
39. Reliability Maturity Matrix - desired
ATTRIBUTES Stage 1: Stage 2: Awakening Stage 3: Stage 4: Wisdom Stage 5: Certainty
Uncertainty Enlightenment
1.1 Understanding No comprehension of Recognizing that reliability Still learning more about reliability Participating. Understand absolutes of Consider reliability management an essential
reliability as a management may be of value but not management. Becoming supportive reliability management. Recognize their part of company system.
& Attitude management tool. Tend willing to provide money or time to and helpful. personal role in continuing emphasis.
to blame engineering make it happen.
for ‘reliability problems’
1.2 Status Reliability is hidden in A stronger reliability leader appointed, Reliability manager reports to top Reliability manager is an officer of Reliability manager is on board of directors.
1. Management
manufacturing or yet main emphasis is still on an audit management, with role in management company; effective status reporting and Prevention is main concern. Reliability is a
engineering of initial product functionality. of division. preventive action. Involved with consumer thought leader.
departments. Reliability Reliability testing still not performed. affairs.
testing probably not
done. Emphasis on
initial product
functionality.
1.3 Measured Cost Not done other than Direct warranty expenses only Warranty, corrective action materials Customer and lifecycle unreliability costs Lifecycle cost reduction done through product
anecdotally and engineering costs monitored determined and tracked reliability improvements
of Unreliability
2.1 Requirement Informal or nonexistent Basic requirements based on Requirements include environment and Plans are tailored for each project and Contingency planning occurs. Decisions
2. Product
customer requirements or standards. use profiles. Some apportionment. projected risks. Use of distributions for based on business or market considerations.
& Planning
Reqts.
Plans have required activities. Plans have more details with regular environmental and use conditions. Part of strategic business plan.
reviews.
2.2 Training & Informally available to Select individuals trained in concepts Training for engineering community for Reliability and statistics courses tailored New technologies and reliability tools tracked
some, if requested and data analysis. Available training key reliability related processes. for design and manufacturing engineers. and training adjusted to accommodate.
Development for design engineers Managers trained on reliability and Senior managers trained on reliability Reliability training actively supported by top
lifecycle impact. impact on business. management.
3.1 Analysis Nonexistent or solely Point estimates and reliance on Formal use of FMEA. Field data analysis Predictions are expressed as distributions Lifecycle cost considered during design.
based on handbook parts count methods. Basic of similar products used to adjust and include confidence limits. Stress and damage models created and
3. Engineering
manufacturing issues identification and listing of failure predictions. Design changes cause re- Environmental and use conditions used for used. Extensive risk analysis for new
modes and impact evaluation of product reliability simulation and testing. technologies.
3.2 Testing Primarily functional Generic test plan exists with reliability Detailed reliability test plan with sample Accelerated tests and supporting models Test results used to update component stress
testing only to meet customer or size and confidence limits. Results used used. Testing to failure or destruct limits and damage models. New technologies
standards specifications for design changes & vendor evals. conducted characterized.
3.3 Supply Chain Selection based on Approved vendor list maintained. Assessments and audit results used to Vendor selection includes analysis of Changes in environment, use profile, or
function and price Audits based on issues or with critical update AVL. Field data and failure vendor’s reliability data. Suppliers conduct design, trigger vendor reliability assessment.
Management parts. Qualification primarily based on analysis related to specific vendors. assessments and audit of their suppliers. Component parameters and reliability
vendor datasheets. monitored for stability
4.1 Failure Data Failures during function Pareto analysis of field return and Root cause analysis used to update Focus is on failure mechanisms. Failure Customer satisfaction relationship to product
testing may be internal testing. Failure analysis relies AVL and prediction models. Summary distribution models updated based on failures is understood. Use of prognostic
Tracking & addressed on vendor support. of analysis results disseminated. failure data methods to forestall failure.
Analysis
4.2 Validation & Informal and based on Basic verification that plans are Supplier agreements around reliability Internal reviews of reliability processes Reliability predictions match observed field
4. Feedback
individuals rather than followed. Field failure data regularly monitored. Failure modes regularly and tools. Failure mechanisms regularly reliability.
Verification
Process
process reported. monitored. monitored and used to update models and
test methods
4.3 Reliability Nonexistent or informal Design and process change followed. Effectiveness of corrective actions Identified failure mechanisms addressed New technologies evaluated and adopted to
Corrective action process includes tracked over time. Identified failure in all products. Advanced modeling improve reliability. Design rules updated
Improvements internal and vendor engagement. modes addressed in other product. techniques explored and adopted. Formal based on field failure analysis.
Improvement opportunities identified as and effective lessons learned process
environment and use profiles change. exists.
5. Prevailing “We don’t know why we “Is it absolutely necessary to always “Through commitment and reliability “Failure prevention is a routine part of our “We know why we do not have problems with
have problems with have problems with reliability?” improvement we are identifying and operation.” reliability.”
Sentiment reliability” resolving our problems.”