The document discusses the uncertainty in predictions of future global warming. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projects temperature increases between 1.5-6°C by 2100, but there is uncertainty regarding population growth, economic growth, energy use, and the climate system's response. Sea level rise is projected to be 0.2-0.8 meters by 2090s. There are also concerns about potential tipping points where small changes could trigger larger impacts, such as forest dieback increasing carbon emissions or melting Arctic sea ice reducing albedo. The Arctic is already experiencing impacts like sea ice and tundra retreat threatening ecosystems and indigenous peoples. Africa is also highly vulnerable to climate change impacts due to poverty

1. The impacts of global warming AS Geography

2. Prediction problems Projected temperature changes relative to 1980–99 based on three economic scenarios

4. The forecasts of warming range from 1.5 to 6.0C by 2100.

6. The rates of economic growth and related growth in emissions are not known.

7. The future energy mix, i.e. fossil fuels versus renewable sources, is difficult to predict.

8. The exact physical response of the climate system to enhanced greenhouse emissions is unclear, especially the scales of positive and negative feedback.

11. The idea of a tipping point is that the Earth’s climate may ‘jump’ quickly from its current state to a new one rather than changing by gradual transition.

13. Arctic sea-ice melt leading to a huge rise in albedo. This would lead to the retention of more solar radiation and the reflection of less back into space. The outcome would be ‘runaway’ warming.

15. Indigenous people, such as the Inuit and Saami, eke out an existence in an incredibly harsh climate.

16. In 2005 the Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) identified a series of major climate change impacts in the Arctic.

19. Tundra areas are likely to become forested and this will have a huge impact on both flora and fauna.

20. Migratory mammals, such as caribou and polar bears, are particularly threatened.

22. In Greenland, retreating ice is already exposing mineral and fossil fuel deposits.

24. High poverty rates, heavy dependence on subsistence farming or a few cash crops, high rates of HIV/AIDS and low levels of investment are commonplace.

25. Reliance on farming and scarce natural water resources, plus a lack of capital, make adapting to climate change a major challenge.

28. more frequent drought and associated famine

29. heightened tensions over scarce resources, leading to more conflict

30. reduced food security due to more unreliable rainfall

31. reduced cash crop yields and/or failure of some cash crops in some areas

32. rising water stress

33. changes to ecosystems as climate belts shift

34. possibly more frequent cyclones and floods