2. 2012 has arrived.
While the Internet is buzzing with ways to routines. We had frogs from all disciplines—
survive the last year of the world (according to from strategy to engineering—draw from their
the ancient Mayan Calendar), frogs are thinking passions and expertise to offer their input.
of other things that will shape culture this year. Without doubt, 2012 is shaping up to be a year
We asked frogs from across the globe to share of hyper-connected, highly-personal, ultra-
their personal favorite tech trends that’ll crop smart computing that, well, might just skip the
up this year and what their impact would be on computer altogether.
design, business, entertainment, and our daily
3. 8
Connected
Cities
by Chief Creative Officer Mark Rolston
The modern city is becoming a pointer system, changing how we live. A digital landscape
the new URL, for tomorrow’s hybrid digital– overlays our physical world and is expanding
physical environment. Today's Facebook will be to offer ever-richer experiences that
complemented by tomorrow's Placebook. complement, and in emerging cases, replace
Explosive innovation and adoption of the physical experience. In the meta–cities of
computing, mobile devices, and rich sources of the future, computing isn't just with us; it
data are changing the cities in which we live, surrounds us, and it uses the context of our
work, and play. It's about us, and how environment to empower us in more natural,
computing in the context of our cities is yet powerful ways.
4. 8
Taking Computers Out of Computing
by Senior Principal Design Technologist Jared Ficklin, Executive Technology Director Robert
Tuttle, and Assistant Vice President Marketing Adam Richardson
A new pattern of computing is emerging where assuming voice control, just as touch control is
interactions with technology will be now assumed for any screen. However, the
conversational. We’ll literally talk to them and spoken word is only a fragment of any
they to us. Voice recognition is a key enabler of conversation. Computer vision—especially
this. Apple’s Siri is the headliner, of course, but depth sensing cameras—will be able to pick up
Ford has been employing Microsoft Sync—which non-verbal cues such as gesturing or body
also uses voice control extensively—in its cars language that complete human
for a few years. It's being smart about offering communication. When both voice and gesture
it not just in its high–end models or Lincoln comprehension are paired, humans will be able
premium brand, but in less expensive cars that to address technology naturally, without
appeal to younger buyers. It's a great way to command jargon. The tactical steps being
get a new generation engaged with the Ford taken in 2012 are to “design the human” as the
brand. Voice recognition technology has finally primary interface device in support of that.
hit its tipping point of capability, and the stage
is being set for a generation of users to start
5. 8
Quantified
Selves
by Creative Director Thomas Sutton
We’ll see the launch of open data aggregation construct ever-greater value and insight on top
platforms that provide API's for third party of the data. The smarter the services get, the
sensors, front-end applications, and analysis simpler and more valuable their insights will
engines. A self-tracking enthusiast will be able become. At a presentation level, I believe we
to merge her Fitbit, Jawbone, Zeo, Nike plus, will move beyond the current data
and Withings data to see a comprehensive visualization trends towards humanized
overview of her health and lifestyle. Driven suggestions that prompt and guide individual
initially by a simplification benefit, the long- action.
term power of this trend will be the ability to
6. 8
The Reductive Social Network:
Technology Finally Gets Personal
by Vice President of Business Development Nathan Weyer
Facebook is not personal. It is social, but it is computing only exacerbates the problem: now
evolving into the next iteration of the Internet. my 10,000 digital photos are in the ether, but
Today’s technologies, products, and services am I any more emotionally connected with
do not adequately serve the human need for them and sharing them with my three closest
intimacy and personal connections. The early friends in a meaningful way? 2012 is about
days of Facebook and Flickr felt this way, but culling from the terabytes and sharing with the
now our social networks and hard drives are single digits. In 2012, product companies will
swamped with a deluge of digital data that we deliver new products that begin narrowing the
can't process. Our Internet personalities have social circle and capturing intimacy and
evolved into amplified personas that aren't authenticity.
truly us. The current fervor around cloud
7. ç
Convergence
Causing Specialization
by Creative Director Michael DiTullo
For the past decade we have been seeing a camera and the watch, would rapidly shrivel
convergence of multiple pieces of hardware into and die. Instead, I think new technologies will
fewer generalist devices. The smart phone is provide opportunities for them to get better.
the almost perfect example of the convergent When users do purchase a dedicated device,
digital device as Swiss Army knife. It has they are gravitating towards products with
absorbed much of the most common use cases higher quality and better design to elevate their
for portable devices, like music and video experience. It turns out that the convergent
consumption, digital photo and video capture, device is killing the commodity digital product
email and calendar, and simple things like time while forcing everything else to improve. This is
keeping. I read countless blog posts presenting companies and brands with an
proclaiming that dedicated devices, like the opportunity to do what designers love: make
8. 8
Interaction
Choreography
by Senior Principal Design Technologist Jared Ficklin
User interaction with technology is going interaction requires new thinking about
above the glass. You no longer need an explicit dexterity, ergonomics, and whether someone
tool or even direct manipulation to drive a user might feel silly or offensive with certain
interface. With the ability of technology, like gestures. We are so involved in this space right
the Microsoft Kinect, to see users’ movements now, that we’ve had to move our design
in space, gestures are being added to technologists’ desks to create enough room
traditional methods in new layers of for all the hand waving design.
interaction. Designing for this new layer of
9. 8 Reputation Enhanced Lending and
Trading Becomes Mainstream
by Assistant Vice President, Strategy Tim Morey
becomes critical. I want to know that you are
The recession, coupled with the rise of the so- not a crook, or a thief, or a bad egg. By linking
called Collaborative Consumption or Shared person-to-person transactions to social
Economy, has the early–adopter community networks, we are reducing the need for cash
abuzz with notions of the end of consumption. deposits and other financial remedies to the
Companies like AirBnB and Zimride that allow bad egg problem. While logging into third
people to open their homes or their cars to party websites using your Facebook identity is
share or loan for a fee are cited as examples of now commonplace, we are beginning to see
new ways of using and exchanging goods and person-to-person exchanges making use of
services. But the really interesting trend here is social networks to broker trust. For example,
that new forms of trust are being enabled by before you stay at someone’s spare bedroom
social networking technology. We all joined via AirBnB, you have to sign in with your
Facebook and LinkedIn to stay in touch with profile. I recently rented someone’s house in
colleagues and friends, but the upshot of mass Toronto for a few days, and between our
adoption is that we can check up on virtually respective social networks we found enough
everyone we come across. Individuals who friends, relatives, and colleagues in common
have never met or transacted with one another for him to lend me the property with
are using social networks to validate each confidence. In 2012, this reputation enhanced
other. If you are just selling goods on lending and trading will become mainstream.
Craigslist, it doesn’t really matter whether the We will lease, barter, and trade with relative
buyer is a good person or a bad one: I take the strangers, banking on their reputation and
cash, you take my goods, and you are gone. connections.
But if I am renting something to you, trust
10. 8
Base of the Pyramid
Mobile Innovation
by Strategy Director Ravi Chhatpar
Smartphones will make significant inroads into stripped down versions of their more
an entirely new segment: the lower end of the expensive and feature-packed brethren.
mass market and the “base of the pyramid.” However, they’ll be notable for the fact that an
Huawei's sub-$100 Android smartphone has eager population will be discovering the world
already had significant success in Kenya, and of smartphones and apps for the first time.
major manufacturers are quickly following suit This population is filled with experimenters,
across Africa, India, Southeast Asia, and South tinkerers, and developers who will unleash a
America. These smartphones will not be new world of apps that address their own
notable for hardware innovations, as they're needs and pain points—those that have been
11. 8
Digital Discovery
in the Physical World
by Creative Director Scott Nazarian
The experience of the unstructured discovery mixture of Wolfram-Alpha "smarts" and
of the physical world is about to get a lot more location–based, contextual intelligence is the
interesting in the next few years. 2012 will be (software) basis of all future "smart space.”
a year of continuing to focus on the digital and Meanwhile, sensors and actuators of greater
material evolution of "search.” We're already acuity may define new modes of physical and
familiar with a few of the functional (software) architectural expression.
and representational (media) components
involved through the introduction of Siri and Of course this may seem an obvious
services such as Gowalla or Four Square. The progression to the Technorati, but for the
confluence of complex search and knowledge work-a-day masses soon to be living in so
management algorithms, and the growing called smart cities in Asia and elsewhere in the
layer of location-based applications, gives rise next decade, the expectations about how such
to a highly fluid, seamless integration between integrated "findability" actually feels are
physical and digital contexts. This evolutionary already beginning to be set.
12. 8
Flourishing Commerce
in the Post-PC Era
by Assistant Vice President of Financial Services, Innovation
Strategy Group Toshi Mogi
The post-PC channels for commerce have evolving post-PC platforms matures, they will
come of age, and consumers will continue expect much more. The post-PC platform
to flock to mobile, tablet, smart TVs, and game affords mobility, portability, payment
console platforms to conduct their business. capabilities, video and collaboration, location
Financial services firms would find it wise to awareness, natural language processing,
ready themselves for this dramatic change in gestures, and so on. Clever firms will wield this
customer behaviors and expectations. We will fresh and evolving palette to craft engaging
likely see firms convert their successful web experiences in the real and virtual worlds. The
experience to a more streamlined mobile and aim will be to drive customer delight, loyalty,
tablet capability, in particular. But as and engagement.
consumers' experiences with these rapidly
13. 8
The Age of
the Algorithm
by Senior Principal Design Technologist Jared Ficklin
We live in the App Age and are entering new
territory. The sexy math behind voice or facial
recognition, real time translation, or even just
assembly of a playlist of music, is no longer
the realm of super computers or even
desktops. Smart phones will run algorithms,
and the data to feed them will also be more
fluidly available. Forget Global Warming
models: Consumers will pay good money for
an algorithm that gathers data and solves
everyday problems.
14. 8
Biomimicry
by Consulting Editor Reena Jana
In 2012, we'll see increasing numbers of have come up with ways of harvesting water
scientists, technologists, architects, from fog, for example, or possess sleek forms
corporations, and even governments looking to that are more aerodynamic than traditional
biomimicry—designing objects and systems man-made ones. While bio-mimicry has been
based on or inspired by patterns in nature—as an emerging field for some time, in 2012
an efficient innovation strategy. Why? Often, influential thinkers will begin to apply
nature can provide examples of energy-saving, biomimetic principles on a larger scale,
environmentally-friendly solutions to a variety including the planning of new cities and the
of technological challenges. These solutions updating of urban infrastructures. In addition,
have also been "tested" via billions of years of experts will also begin exploring the pitfalls of
informal R&D—by animals, plants, insects, and biomimicry and will also share best
other participants in the natural world who practices, as more case studies are available.
15. 8
Reign in
the Clouds!
by Senior Vice President, Engineering Mark VandenBrink and
Executive Strategy Director Abby Godee
We're rapidly moving into a technology space making that data comprehensible to the
where mobility is becoming less about a set of consumer is key. The question has never really
devices, and more about the pervasive mist of been “is this possible?” but rather “when will
data that we all generate with every interaction we have an ecosystem of compelling and
on the Internet. Managing, securing, and useful devices and services that will integrate
understanding this data will play a huge part in seamlessly into people’s lives?” We think that
technology over the next few years. Moreover, time is finally arriving in 2012.
16. 8
Remote
Collaboration
by Executive Creative Director Holger Hampf
When you work in a context where regular from a high-def experience that we may want
interaction via audio and video between to reconsider sending a smoke signal. Make no
multiple locations is a necessary part of your mistake, technology is moving fast, as shown
daily activities, you might have experienced by the popularity of Skyping with friends and
great frustration as of late. With the demand family across continents. Unfortunately, the
for more connectivity everyday, between both truth is that most of our conversations across
people and places, it feels like technology is distances are far from perfect and no fun at all.
far behind in addressing the need to work We need creative collaboration between design
efficiently and with the same "directness" of and technology to rethink these experiences so
talking to a person in the same room. Dropped that they are more fulfilling and "direct"
calls, poor reception, and interrupted video activities in our lives.
streams are the standard. We are so far away
17. 8
Re-Shape: Humans Are Analogue
by frog Founder Hartmut Esslinger
The way of design is only achievable via mediocrity and a loss of creative excellence.
creative model-making and prototyping by the Like the new “polystyrene slates” of many new
designer. Tools, both real and virtual, connect electronic products, where excellence is
our mind with the real world. However, tools defined by how well the corners are shaped (a
also define how we shape things: tools’ re-run of 1950‘s boxy design), our modern-
limitations enhance our deep involvement with day digital design software is the cause for
them and the materials, and honing our skills zillions of repetitive and bland products.
ultimately leads to mastership. The curse of Charlie Chaplin’s classic film of mechanized
“easy” digital tools is to become complacent dehumanization, Modern Times, is a déjà vu of
after relative early “successes.” This can lead to our current state.
