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Learn Foresight!
An Introduction to The Futures School
Our immersive approach to
creating the future has been embraced around the world!
February 26, 2015
www.thefuturesschool.com
Today’s	
  business	
  leaders	
  must	
  remain	
  focused	
  on	
  what’s	
  next.	
  	
  
In	
  order	
  to	
  gain	
  greater	
  visibility	
  about	
  the	
  future,	
  what	
  is	
  needed	
  is	
  not	
  a	
  
better	
  crystal	
  ball,	
  but	
  rather	
  an	
  instrument	
  for	
  building	
  resilience,	
  
adaptability	
  and	
  opportunity	
  through	
  recognition	
  of	
  emerging	
  patterns.	
  	
  
Futures	
  Thinking	
  is	
  
that	
  instrument.
Strategic	
  Foresight	
  
provides	
  the	
  
framework.	
  
Future	
  planning	
  in	
  our	
  current	
  volatile,	
  uncertain,	
  complex,	
  
and	
  ambiguous	
  environment	
  requires	
  us	
  to	
  leverage	
  both	
  
quantitative	
  and	
  qualitative	
  approaches.	
  	
  
Strategic	
  Foresight	
  recognizes	
  that	
  the	
  future	
  cannot	
  be	
  
predicted	
  but	
  it	
  can	
  be	
  mapped.
It	
  is	
  no	
  longer	
  enough	
  to	
  extrapolate	
  historical	
  data	
  
forward	
  to	
  create	
  an	
  official,	
  linear	
  future.	
  	
  
Effective	
  long-­‐term	
  planning	
  must	
  consider	
  multiple	
  
future	
  operating	
  environments	
  in	
  order	
  to	
  ensure	
  
strategy	
  is	
  resilient,	
  adaptive	
  and	
  transformative.	
  	
  
Strategic	
  Foresight	
  is	
  a	
  discipline	
  but	
  is	
  actually	
  best	
  	
  
served	
  as	
  an	
  integrated	
  philosophy.	
  	
  	
  
Organizations	
  that	
  intentionally	
  develop	
  a	
  futures	
  culture	
  are	
  
primed	
  for	
  market-­‐leading	
  innovation,	
  successful	
  opportunity	
  
development,	
  and	
  revenue-­‐generating	
  futures	
  intelligence.
Most	
  organizations	
  focus	
  solely	
  on	
  the	
  Push	
  of	
  the	
  Future	
  which	
  
represents	
  the	
  trends	
  and	
  emerging	
  issues	
  that	
  are	
  pushing	
  us	
  into	
  the	
  
future	
  regardless	
  of	
  what	
  we	
  do.	
  	
  Conversely,	
  the	
  Pull	
  of	
  the	
  Future	
  
represents	
  our	
  ability	
  to	
  identify	
  and	
  create	
  our	
  preferred	
  futures.	
  	
  
Strategic	
  Foresight	
  allows	
  us	
  to	
  leverage	
  both	
  ends	
  of	
  the	
  	
  
futures	
  spectrum:	
  the	
  “Push”	
  and	
  the	
  “Pull.”	
  
Push of
the
Future
Pull
of the
Future
Challenge
Assumptions
Scan to Uncover
Hidden Opportunities
ExploreDiscover
Design and Execute
Action Plans
Create
Develop Future
Scenarios
Map
Natural	
  Foresight	
  is	
  an	
  
action-­‐based	
  approach	
  to	
  
building	
  a	
  futures	
  thinking	
  
competency.	
  Organized	
  in	
  
an	
  adaptive,	
  resilient	
  and	
  
transformative	
  approach	
  
that	
  has	
  been	
  successfully	
  
implemented	
  in	
  large,	
  
multinational	
  firms,	
  Natural	
  
Foresight	
  includes	
  foresight	
  
tools	
  such	
  as	
  environmental	
  
scanning,	
  assumption	
  and	
  bias	
  
modeling	
  and	
  scenario	
  
development.
Challenge
Assumptions
Discover
Today’s	
  environment	
  of	
  accelerating	
  volatility	
  
and	
  exponential	
  change	
  is	
  disrupting	
  
paradigms	
  in	
  every	
  domain.	
  However,	
  our	
  
deeply	
  engrained	
  biases	
  and	
  assumptions	
  
prevent	
  us	
  from	
  recognizing	
  these	
  
disruptions	
  and	
  taking	
  action	
  to	
  capitalize	
  on	
  
them.	
  	
  	
  
Strategic	
  Foresight	
  helps	
  us	
  to	
  look	
  past	
  our	
  
present-­‐day	
  models	
  and	
  ideas,	
  acting	
  as	
  the	
  
most	
  effective	
  way	
  to	
  recognize	
  disruptors	
  on	
  
the	
  horizon	
  of	
  business	
  and	
  society.
External	
  scanning	
  and	
  trend	
  analysis	
  in	
  
the	
  macro	
  (Social,	
  Technological,	
  Economic,	
  
Environmental,	
  and	
  Political)	
  environment	
  
is	
  a	
  necessity	
  –	
  future	
  disruptors,	
  
competitors	
  and	
  opportunities	
  will	
  most	
  
likely	
  originate	
  from	
  	
  
outside	
  your	
  industry.	
  	
  	
  	
  
Strategic	
  Foresight	
  works	
  from	
  the	
  outside-­‐
in,	
  providing	
  the	
  tools	
  to	
  slay	
  the	
  data	
  
tsunami	
  and	
  identify	
  the	
  weak	
  signals	
  on	
  
the	
  horizon.
Scan to
Uncover Hidden
Opportunities
Explore
Develop Future
Scenarios
Map Scenarios	
  are	
  an	
  incredibly	
  powerful	
  tool	
  
due	
  to	
  their	
  ability	
  to	
  immerse	
  	
  
organizations	
  into	
  future	
  probabilities,	
  
possibilities,	
  and	
  aspirational	
  outcomes.	
  	
  
These	
  well-­‐informed	
  maps	
  allow	
  firms	
  to	
  
assess	
  the	
  validity,	
  robustness	
  and	
  future-­‐
readiness	
  of	
  their	
  current	
  strategies,	
  while	
  
also	
  uncovering	
  new	
  ideas,	
  products,	
  and	
  
models	
  that	
  they	
  would	
  have	
  otherwise	
  
missed.	
  
Design and
Execute Action
Plans
Create It’s	
  not	
  enough	
  to	
  build	
  strategy,	
  
innovate,	
  map	
  out	
  organizational	
  
development	
  or	
  “look	
  into	
  the	
  future”	
  
without	
  successfully	
  acting	
  upon	
  all	
  of	
  
that	
  hard	
  work.	
  	
  	
  	
  
Organizations	
  must	
  build	
  both	
  short	
  and	
  
long-­‐range	
  action	
  plans	
  and	
  
deliverables	
  to	
  help	
  implement	
  
innovation	
  and	
  preferred	
  future	
  
outcomes.
Context and Background Futures Intelligence
World Building Strategy Recommendations
• Unconscious Bias
Modeling
• Ladder of Inference
• Causal Layered
Analysis
Explore personal and organizational
assumptions around the focal issue.
Sample Tools:
Discover and interpret the emerging
trends, patterns and clusters.
• Environmental Scanning
• Qualitative Predictive Analysis
• Probability/ Impact Matrix
• Pattern and Sensemaking
Sample Tools:
Create sets of divergent, provocative maps using
creativity, data, intuition, and research.
• Scenario Fields
• Cross Impact Matrix
• Narrative Transformation
• Futures Wheels
• Design Fiction
Sample Tools:
Inform long-range planning efforts, inspire
innovation and begin creating the future today!
• Backcasting
• Artifacting the Future
• Sign Posts
• Scenario Commonalities
• Scenario/Strategy Matrix
Sample Tools:
We help our clients:
• Uncover emerging trends and issues that will
impact their business.
• Discover unseen opportunities for strategic
development and advantage.
• Thrive in a world of complex ideas and
practices.
Kedge is a minority-owned,
global foresight, innovation and
strategic design firm.
TFS is a one-of-a-kind, interactive and
project-based training program.
Program participants will:
• Identify emerging trends and weak signals on
the horizon.
• Build "maps of the future" that generate
successful strategies, actions and
organizational narratives.
• Harness the future to make better decisions
today.
www.KedgeFutures.com
www.TheFuturesSchool.com
Next Session:
May 5-7, 2015
info@KedgeFutures.com
info@TheFuturesSchool.com

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Introducing The Futures School!

  • 1. Learn Foresight! An Introduction to The Futures School Our immersive approach to creating the future has been embraced around the world! February 26, 2015
  • 3. Today’s  business  leaders  must  remain  focused  on  what’s  next.     In  order  to  gain  greater  visibility  about  the  future,  what  is  needed  is  not  a   better  crystal  ball,  but  rather  an  instrument  for  building  resilience,   adaptability  and  opportunity  through  recognition  of  emerging  patterns.     Futures  Thinking  is   that  instrument. Strategic  Foresight   provides  the   framework.  
  • 4. Future  planning  in  our  current  volatile,  uncertain,  complex,   and  ambiguous  environment  requires  us  to  leverage  both   quantitative  and  qualitative  approaches.     Strategic  Foresight  recognizes  that  the  future  cannot  be   predicted  but  it  can  be  mapped.
  • 5. It  is  no  longer  enough  to  extrapolate  historical  data   forward  to  create  an  official,  linear  future.     Effective  long-­‐term  planning  must  consider  multiple   future  operating  environments  in  order  to  ensure   strategy  is  resilient,  adaptive  and  transformative.    
  • 6. Strategic  Foresight  is  a  discipline  but  is  actually  best     served  as  an  integrated  philosophy.       Organizations  that  intentionally  develop  a  futures  culture  are   primed  for  market-­‐leading  innovation,  successful  opportunity   development,  and  revenue-­‐generating  futures  intelligence.
  • 7. Most  organizations  focus  solely  on  the  Push  of  the  Future  which   represents  the  trends  and  emerging  issues  that  are  pushing  us  into  the   future  regardless  of  what  we  do.    Conversely,  the  Pull  of  the  Future   represents  our  ability  to  identify  and  create  our  preferred  futures.     Strategic  Foresight  allows  us  to  leverage  both  ends  of  the     futures  spectrum:  the  “Push”  and  the  “Pull.”   Push of the Future Pull of the Future
  • 8. Challenge Assumptions Scan to Uncover Hidden Opportunities ExploreDiscover Design and Execute Action Plans Create Develop Future Scenarios Map Natural  Foresight  is  an   action-­‐based  approach  to   building  a  futures  thinking   competency.  Organized  in   an  adaptive,  resilient  and   transformative  approach   that  has  been  successfully   implemented  in  large,   multinational  firms,  Natural   Foresight  includes  foresight   tools  such  as  environmental   scanning,  assumption  and  bias   modeling  and  scenario   development.
  • 9. Challenge Assumptions Discover Today’s  environment  of  accelerating  volatility   and  exponential  change  is  disrupting   paradigms  in  every  domain.  However,  our   deeply  engrained  biases  and  assumptions   prevent  us  from  recognizing  these   disruptions  and  taking  action  to  capitalize  on   them.       Strategic  Foresight  helps  us  to  look  past  our   present-­‐day  models  and  ideas,  acting  as  the   most  effective  way  to  recognize  disruptors  on   the  horizon  of  business  and  society.
  • 10. External  scanning  and  trend  analysis  in   the  macro  (Social,  Technological,  Economic,   Environmental,  and  Political)  environment   is  a  necessity  –  future  disruptors,   competitors  and  opportunities  will  most   likely  originate  from     outside  your  industry.         Strategic  Foresight  works  from  the  outside-­‐ in,  providing  the  tools  to  slay  the  data   tsunami  and  identify  the  weak  signals  on   the  horizon. Scan to Uncover Hidden Opportunities Explore
  • 11. Develop Future Scenarios Map Scenarios  are  an  incredibly  powerful  tool   due  to  their  ability  to  immerse     organizations  into  future  probabilities,   possibilities,  and  aspirational  outcomes.     These  well-­‐informed  maps  allow  firms  to   assess  the  validity,  robustness  and  future-­‐ readiness  of  their  current  strategies,  while   also  uncovering  new  ideas,  products,  and   models  that  they  would  have  otherwise   missed.  
  • 12. Design and Execute Action Plans Create It’s  not  enough  to  build  strategy,   innovate,  map  out  organizational   development  or  “look  into  the  future”   without  successfully  acting  upon  all  of   that  hard  work.         Organizations  must  build  both  short  and   long-­‐range  action  plans  and   deliverables  to  help  implement   innovation  and  preferred  future   outcomes.
  • 13. Context and Background Futures Intelligence World Building Strategy Recommendations • Unconscious Bias Modeling • Ladder of Inference • Causal Layered Analysis Explore personal and organizational assumptions around the focal issue. Sample Tools: Discover and interpret the emerging trends, patterns and clusters. • Environmental Scanning • Qualitative Predictive Analysis • Probability/ Impact Matrix • Pattern and Sensemaking Sample Tools: Create sets of divergent, provocative maps using creativity, data, intuition, and research. • Scenario Fields • Cross Impact Matrix • Narrative Transformation • Futures Wheels • Design Fiction Sample Tools: Inform long-range planning efforts, inspire innovation and begin creating the future today! • Backcasting • Artifacting the Future • Sign Posts • Scenario Commonalities • Scenario/Strategy Matrix Sample Tools:
  • 14. We help our clients: • Uncover emerging trends and issues that will impact their business. • Discover unseen opportunities for strategic development and advantage. • Thrive in a world of complex ideas and practices. Kedge is a minority-owned, global foresight, innovation and strategic design firm. TFS is a one-of-a-kind, interactive and project-based training program. Program participants will: • Identify emerging trends and weak signals on the horizon. • Build "maps of the future" that generate successful strategies, actions and organizational narratives. • Harness the future to make better decisions today. www.KedgeFutures.com www.TheFuturesSchool.com Next Session: May 5-7, 2015 info@KedgeFutures.com info@TheFuturesSchool.com