This is an updated summary of 60 global trends that may impact the world of retail over the next decade. Multiple expert discussions across Asia, Europe, MENA and North America have developed and shared these insights that have been curated into ten key shifts. As we finalise the future views before wider public sharing, we very much welcome your feedback on these and which may have greatest future impact. douglas.jones@futureagenda.org @futureagenda

1. Future Retail Trends
Insights from Multiple Expert Discussions
9 Nov 2020

2. Context
This presentation collates several emerging issues that will impact the future of
retail - mixing macro trends with sector changes as well as consumer shifts.
It is designed to stimulate thinking and debate on future UK opportunities.
Future
of Retail
Macro
Sector
Consumer
Relevant Global Trends
• Impacting many areas
• Driving lasting change
Customer Experiences
• Setting expectations
• Influencing behavior
Retail Changes
• Emerging in niches
• Accelerating impact

3. Ten Potential UK Shifts
From initial review and debate, we have curated ten high level themes that may
be relevant for the UK in the future. These are detailed in the following slides.
We welcome your views on which will have greatest impact and why.
1: Re-emphasise the Local – Continued Importance of the local, physical retail space
2: Identity Insight – Digital ID provides range of personal data for smooth access
3: Personalization – Delivering bespoke experiences, games, prices and engagement
4: Automated Purchase – Everything is part of an automated checkout not an add on
5: Valuing Data – Creating and sharing additional digital revenues from data itself
6: Continuous Interaction – Buying is anytime, anywhere and decoupled from place
7: Better Space – Physical space is used more effectively for higher spend per visit
8: Informed Consumers – More, better data gives buyers more influence and control
9: Redefined Loyalty – Alignment with brands is increasingly short term and fickle
10: Supply Webs - Shared smarter flexible supply systems include competitor cooperation

4. 1: Re-emphasise the Local – Continued Importance of the local, physical retail space

5. Accessible Cities
A key ambition for many is to plan cities for people not cars, providing
better public transport, new cycle ways and creating more walkable areas, while
also encouraging more integration rather than segregation.

6. Local Superblocks
Major cities seek to revitalise localised communities through improving
accessibility. The 15 minute city ambition drives more to emulate Paris and
Barcelona. Local hubs act as a focal point for shared product and service access.

7. Working Near Home
Post Covid19, higher levels of remote working are sustained for some.
At-home and localised working become the norm for many in the service sector.
Local communities are rejuvenated as work, retail, leisure and interaction align.

8. Local Clusters
Local hubs for those in knowledge-based sectors have long been proposed as a
means of minimising the daily commute. ‘Work, live, play’ clusters in cities allow
residents to access different activities including retail all embedded in one area.

9. The Human Touch
In a world of global and digital marketing and consumption,
consumers will increasingly favour those brands that can offer more
emotional engagements, and specifically human-to-human contact.

10. 2: Identity Insight – Digital ID provides range of personal data for smooth access

11. Digital ID
Validation of credentials and age verification is instantaneous,
with the user increasingly in control. Shared access to digital
identity platforms disrupts proprietary business models.

12. Emotional Insight
Retailers use a combination of AI and facial recognition to assess the
emotional state of shoppers – and then adapt staff interaction to suit.

13. Automation of Interaction
Information-rich jobs are initially supported by a first phase of AI but replaced
by the second. Automation mimics behaviours previously unique to humans.

14. Full Journey Transparency
Ubiquitous tracking and data analytics provide brands with real-time insight
into the full customer journey, before and after the core interaction.

15. Frictionless Payments
Banks finally deliver the zero friction ambition as location sensing, digital
identity and the IoT are integrated to provide real time validation and payment.

16. Conversational Commerce
Customers are increasingly comfortable interacting with chat-bots.
Many are more open, honest and flexible with machines than human support.
Voice becomes a primary mechanism for frictionless payment.

17. 3: Personalization – Delivering bespoke experiences, prices and engagement

18. Deep Personalisation
Accessing and using more emotional data about shoppers is put at
the core of ambitions to deliver greater bespoke tailoring for the individual:
We rapidly move from mass personalisation to individual customisation.

19. AI Integration
The use of AI expands to enable the ‘seamless’ retail experience.
Deep learning and chatbots are widely deployed: physical and digital
experiences are blurred as machines automatically configure options.

20. Automated Retail
Automation is progressively embedded within many areas of retail.
While robots providing customer support and stocking shelves are the most
visible, ‘hidden’ tech like facial recognition is changing the customer experience.

21. Dynamic Pricing
More products and services are priced for the individual and the moment.
All prices are variable and flex depending on demand, interest and need.

22. 4: Automated Purchase – Everything is part of an automated checkout not an add on

23. Automated Retail
Automation is progressively embedded within many areas of retail.
While robots providing customer support and stocking shelves are the most
visible, ‘hidden’ tech like facial recognition is changing the customer experience.

24. Emotional Insight
Retailers use a combination of AI and facial recognition to assess the
emotional state of shoppers – and then adapt staff interaction to suit.

25. No Staff Stores
More brands experiment with outlets that have no staff. Customers access
and pay for product digitally as shelves are restocked automatically.
24/7 continuous operation is at the core of many propositions.

26. QR Ubiquity
After a slower take up in some markets, the West catches up with Asia using QR
codes as the core mechanism for identity, information, selection and purchase.

27. 5: Valuing Data – Creating and sharing additional digital revenues from data itself

28. Data as an Asset
Organisations are obliged to account for what data they own or access.
They are required to report their full data portfolio and are taxed on this.
Leaders seek to have a far better and informed view of the value of data.

29. Data Dividend
Providing a data dividend paid to all citizens would mean that they are
remunerated by digital players for the use of their data. It could also encourage
more personal data sharing and even help set standards for data use.

30. Remote Interaction
Rapidly advancing virtual and augmented reality systems go mainstream.
More sectors embrace improved visualisation to envisage, configure and
select new products and solutions in situ – all in advance of purchase.

31. Integrating Public Services
Retail outlets accommodate a wider range of public services to fill gaps being
left behind. Trust and convenience combine with location to increase footfall
and release additional retail space for others to repurpose.

32. 6: Continuous Interaction – Buying is anytime, anywhere and decoupled from place

33. Online Dominance
With China already at 60% eCommerce share and Europe at 25%, moving to
online dominance of retail is seen as credible for many markets by 2030

34. Urban Delivery
Small, slow-moving, autonomous robots act as an accelerator of automation.
They enable safe, clean, convenient and low-cost delivery and help
to raise public confidence in the wider adoption of unmanned logistics.

35. 24/7 On Demand
Escalating growth of ecommerce retail aligns with more streamlined
logistics to enable same-day fulfilment to premium customers nationwide.
Consolidation of buying power in the hands of a few controls pricing.

36. Omni-Channel Fulfilment
Order delivery increasingly integrates multiple options that best suit individual
customer preferences and brand capabilities – mixing traditional options such
as home delivery, click and collect with in-car and to-person drop off.

37. Regular Subscriptions
Online and physical brands alike seek to deepen customer relationships through
providing weekly, monthly or quarterly home delivery, often at a discount.

38. Seamless Returns
Returning unwanted products is a smooth as same-day delivery.
Brands compete to automate making taking-back as seamless as ordering.

39. Social Media Purchases
In-app promotions take an increasing share of online retail. Social media peer
review and recommendation are a bedrock of consumer decision-making.

40. Try Before You Buy
Test drives migrate across segments as temporary access to products expands.
VR and haptic tech enable customers to try out products ahead of purchase.

41. Conversational Commerce
Customers are increasingly comfortable interacting with chat-bots.
Many are more open, honest and flexible with machines than human support.
Voice becomes a primary mechanism for frictionless payment.

42. Access not Ownership
The ‘lease everything’ business model extends to cover the majority
of products. Tools and equipment join electronic devices, cars and
clothing in being rented for defined periods - and not bought.

43. Meaningful Locations
Successful physical interaction with consumers moves to the few select
locations and moments where they want to, or need to be, on a regular basis.

44. 7: Better Space – Physical space is used more effectively for higher spend per visit

45. Flexible Formats
As the pace of change for technology and consumer expectations
accelerates, many retailers adopt increasingly flexible smaller options.
More specific propositions and experiences are tailored to niche markets.

46. Rethinking Space
Post-Covid19 retailers rethink how better to use space. Maximising footfall
targets are replaced by increasing basket value and low-touch interaction.
Cashless payments dominate and staff-to-customer ratios are questioned.

47. Experience Centres
Brands seek to create interactive venues where you can try,
but not buy, products. Immersive experiences are designed
to engage, excite and educate customers and seed digital purchase.

48. Repurposed Space
As urban physical retail declines, brands seek to make better use of their fixed
assets – experimenting with options across the range of living, work and play.

49. Empty Malls
Locations that fail to provide exciting experiences lose out to digital as
ecommerce dominates the majority of traditional shopping activity.
Malls without unique attractions lose out to more local experiences.

50. Online Offline Integration
Brands increasing seek to link their app to in-store experiences, providing
personalised offers, recommendations, dynamic pricing and stock checking.

51. Brands Partnerships
In-store collaborations are expanded to extend stay and cross-selling.
Collaborative brand strategies and systems increase footprint and access.

52. Reclaiming Car Parks
The growth in ‘Mobility as a Service’ and self-driving cars frees up
vast tracts of space for new development. Repurposing car parks
extends retail interaction and experiences beyond existing store footprints.

53. 8: Informed Consumers – More, better data gives buyers more influence and control

54. Consumer Power
The consumer is likely to gain the upper hand in terms of
the power dynamic and principles such as ‘great customer service’
will no longer be a negotiable.

55. Greater Transparency
Consumers seek, and can, see a fuller picture on product provenance.
Digital tracking of source, processing, production, distribution and retail
location, timing and pricing are all available to those who want to know.

56. The Composite Consumer
Flexible digital identities allow consumers to connect with each other even
as they connect with brands. Loyal relationships will be made not just with
individual customers but also with families, couples, and groups of friends.

57. Shared Data
Customers are progressively willing to share their data in exchange for better,
more personal products and experiences. Retail brands compete to access and
analyse information in real-time to tailor interaction, support and pricing.

58. Millennial Shopping
Millennials and Gen Z form the majority of shoppers and want deeper, more
social experiences. Although digitally informed and researched, interaction
within physical stores with friends is an increasingly preferred option.

59. 9: Redefined Loyalty – Alignment with brands is increasingly short term and fickle

60. Continuous Proof of Loyalty
Brands have to consistently demonstrate their loyalty to consumers
as customer mobility and switching between brands increases. Global,
regional and local affiliations blur and drive wider brand consolidation.

61. Loyalty Partnerships
More physical outlets collaborate with digital brands to cross-promote,
share experiences and integrate their loyalty systems. Online brands use
these as one option for greater presence in the physical environment.

62. Polyamourous Loyalty
Brands begin to embrace customer promiscuity, finding ways to
recognise their emergent desire to build a patchwork identity
through diverse and conflicting choices.

63. Love: Warts and All
With corporate transparency becoming a necessity, businesses have to
address it as both an opportunity and a threat. Successful brands will find ways
to take customers with them - even as they reveal their less attractive sides.

64. Transactional vs. Emotional
Seamless payments will distance consumers from understanding
monetary value. Brands reconsider the way they connect to
customers providing more holistic and emotional value.

65. Premium Private Label
More retailers increase the quality, positioning and pricing of their own brand
offers to provide better products and services than the original brands.

66. 10: Supply Webs - Shared smarter flexible supply systems include competitor cooperation

67. Smart Supply Chains
As inventory again becomes an important differentiator, stores embrace
more intelligent supply chains and logistic systems to ensure availability of
the right products, at the right time, in the right place to every customer.

68. Delivery Drones
Investment in timely drone delivery services accelerates. Concerns about safety
are overcome with automated air traffic control as operational ranges expand.

69. Localised Production
Some manufacturing shifts from centralised production to a smaller, distributed,
resilient approach. 3D printing and localised sourcing play a part in enabling
supply of bespoke products and spare parts in several, but not all, sectors

70. Resilience by Design
Global supply chains evolve to be more flexible, shared regional supply webs.
Manufacturing shifts from centralised production to a smaller and distributed
approach. Competitors access shared, not proprietary, networks and systems.

71. ReCommerce
Reselling second-hand and reconditioned products moves from charity stores
into the mainstream as brands seek to enhance their sustainability credentials.

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